Mark, I'm pretty sure that there will be second- and third-party launch titles for the GameCube. In other words, you won't be limited only to the two Nintendo games.

Also, it's funny that IGN has all those shots -- Nintendo asked the press not to reveal any screen shots or video of the Zelda and Mario Gamecube titles.

Gamespot's first look at the Zelda is interesting. The look is very different -- almost like cel animation. It's striking.

Wave Race looks great. So does that Dinosaur Planet game. By the way -- supposedly you can play part of Luigi's Mansion in the first person perspective.

"Mark, I'm pretty sure that there will be second- and third-party launch titles for the GameCube. In other words, you won't be limited only to the two Nintendo games."

For instance, it looks like Rogue Squadron is still on track to be available at launch...

Yeah, I misread the article. I updated the news and credited Bob because his was the first post I saw. What a goof-up!

Still, it must really stick in Nintendo's craw to not be able to beat Microsoft to market. I think that's pretty big. Even for console enthusiasts, buying two systems within weeks may not be something they all can afford. Some people may buy the Xbox and put off buying a 'Cube for a few months.

Do you think people are waiting around for the first next-gen console to arrive in stores so they can leap into the air and say "THAT'S THE ONE I'M GETTING!!"?? I think GameCube people will wait the frikkin 2 weeks and XBox people won't really care what Nintendo's doing.

"GameCube people will wait the frikkin 2 weeks and XBox people won't really care what Nintendo's doing."

You're right, but its the uncommitted masses who will make or break the systems. The first one to actually have systems in people's living rooms will have a huge advantage. If the X-Box games are good, then Nintendo will have to lean heavily on its Pokemon license.

"Still, it must really stick in Nintendo's craw to not be able to beat Microsoft to market. I think that's pretty big. Even for console enthusiasts, buying two systems within weeks may not be something they all can afford. Some people may buy the Xbox and put off buying a 'Cube for a few months."

I don't know... This one could go either way. Look at it from the point of view of the mass consumer: Their kid wants a console for Christmas. On the one hand, we have the Microsoft Xbox. On the other, Nintendo's Gamecube.

"Hmm. Doesn't Microsoft make computer software? This must be some sort of computer thing, and little Johnny wants to play games."

And Nintendo's been making console games for what, almost 20 years now?

I think Nintendo knows what they're doing. :)

Not to mention that that Xbox is going to cost more money. And if MS is "encouraging" retailers to offer pricey bundles, that might be an even greater incentive to hold out for Gamecube.

The change of ship date was an interesting development, but definately not a trainwreck for Nintendo. Heck they've still got that little Game Boy Advance working it's way into millions of households. And since it is designed to interface with the Gamecube, Ma and Pa might think its logical and economical to stick with Nintendo.

Either way, it's going to be crazy holiday season.

My prediction for Xmas 2001: PS2 remains #1, GameCube 2nd, Xbox a distant 3rd.

PS2 has a large installed base, and a devoted mainstream following. I don't see that changing unless I am underestimating N and MSs marketing.

Gamecube has the GBA tie-in and an impressive system. Nintendo devotees (me) will be there for the Gamecube.

Xbox is held back by a higher price and public confusion, "Microsoft? Game console? Huh? What is it? Does it run Word? I don't get it."

I could be wrong though, I really think marketing could make all the difference in this race.

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Quote:

You're right, but its the uncommitted masses who will make or break the systems. The first one to actually have systems in people's living rooms will have a huge advantage. If the X-Box games are good, then Nintendo will have to lean heavily on its Pokemon license.

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Interesting take on it, Dave. I hadn't heard that one before, but you might be on to something...

Personally, I think Nintendo has enough devotees to not have to worry too much about having the latest release. They're all well enough publicised that anyone who sees the X-Box and knows what it is will know that Nintendo -- which is practically a household name (not that Microsoft isn't, but they're not renowned for consoles) -- has the Gamecube on the way.

Not to say that the X-box will flop, or that the Cube being a little late won't help MS some, but, ultimately...I don't think it will hurt Nintendo any.

It's hard to say. Nintendo obviously saw enough value in being out ahead of Microsoft that they announced they'd beat them to market by five days no matter when Microsoft shipped.

I'm just thinking that for the short-term, there may be many hardcore console fans, the ones who want to have all the systems, who will buy the first one to market and end up having to wait to purchase the second one.

As a side note, I can't help but wonder just how much money is going to be left to spend on games after people lay down $700 to buy both an Xbox and Gamecube and controllers, etc.

And I don't see anyone supplanting Sony anytime soon. The PS2 just has too many good games coming out.

A lot of the people I've talked to who bought the PS2 wish they hadn't.

Don't know how widespread that is, but...It could be a factor, if enough people feel that way.

The Gamecube is so much cheaper than the Xbox, too. Especially with all the bundle BS. It's just ridiculous. I can't imagine people forking over $700 when they know that they can get the 'Cube , controllers, and a couple of games for less than $400.

But, then, maybe I'm being too rational...

If you want a next gen console system, why wouldn't you want the PS2? At this point it pretty much has the best lineup of games.

Gamecube's only $100 cheaper than the Xbox, although I'm not sure how the controllers and other add-ons compare in price. Still, that's two games you get with the 'Cube for the price of the Xbox with no games.

Yeah, but with all the "bundle" mentality that the Xbox has, it sure adds up. Last I heard, it didn't sound like you could get one without the bundle...I'm sure not paying $600 for a system! And that doesn't even come with a game...

Which reminds me -- Nintendo has ALWAYS had at least one game included with the system, if not right at launch, then shortly thereafter, they'll do some "special edition" thing. Any word on that this time around? Or have they abandoned that altogether?

I don't think Nintendo is doing any bundling, but you might see greedy retailers doing some if they think they can get away with it.

I think all the Xbox bundles include a game or games.

We're going to see Microsoft's ultimate test of their marketing power. They believe they can sell the XBox through a pure media blitz. Kids are going to get little Xbox toys in their McDonald's Happy Meals, billboards will display the XBox on every highway, TV shows and movies will feature XBox placement, every other TV commercial will be an XBox commercial, and so on. There's no doubt in my mind that the average joe parent will have Xbox imprinted on their brains during the Christmas season.

Nintendo doesn't bundle anymore with a new system. The last system they bundled out of the gate with was the SNES (Super Nintendo), which came with Super Mario World. N64 had no pack-ins for over a year after release. There were some retailers that may have done some coupons for dollars off, but no free games were included. Of course, the discs games come on today are much cheaper than cartridges...bundling could become a very viable tactic. Nintendo may have even asked Sega how they did with their various bundles. They seem to have sold through everything bundle-wise except the newest Sports Pack with the 2K1 games.

There was a recent article that said Microsoft was doing bundles (of a different sort, they're not really "cheaper", they're just to make sure retailers make a profit on every system sold) because retailers asked for it. When was the last time someone listened to the retailers instead of the consumers and ended up successful?

Marketing shmarketing... if the kids don't want it, mom and dad don't buy it. Microsoft will do great with PC gamers and early adopters. Both companies have so few systems to sell between launch and Christmas that you won't have any idea how they're doing because BOTH will be sold out. If Sony gets units in the marketplace to meet that overflow demand, Nintendo and Microsoft lose a few sales.

But to go with my economy business up above... The fact that Daddy got laid off or Mommy took a pay cut or better yet, 23-year-old Joe P. Com lost his job because his company tanked and now can't find anywhere to work for more than minimum wage is going to pay a larger role. The youth can also be the first to go (in unionized shops) when layoffs occur and they're Microsoft's target audience. If they have the credit (or some extra cash which may be unlikely), they might buy ONE system. That means they wait to see which is "best". After they know that, if Nintendo is even close, they have to consider the cheaper price. This is why I think Sony MUST come down to $199. If they don't, they're only going to be a second choice for a lot of people.

This is long, but throw this in there too... which game company is well-known for games that kids can play which don't contain super-violence and tons of gunplay? Nintendo. What's a recurring theme among parents, the media and society in general? That games are contributing to society's problems because they're too violent. I think that's just one more (unintentional to a degree) feather in Nintendo's cap. For all Nintendo's talk about making more adult-oriented fare, there's no Perfect Dark anywhere close on a release schedule. Even Star Fox, probably their most violent title, is pushed back from launch. That may speak volumes about their direction and goals. Metroid is also a LONG way off.

--Dave

BAH HUMBUG! All these consoles will fail horribly. I just dont see it. It's going to be like the mid 80's right after the atari 2600 fad waned... except in this case its the PSX in place of the atari.

oh yeah all imo of course. And i cant wait for Soul Calibur 2 for GC!

etc

"Marketing shmarketing... if the kids don't want it, mom and dad don't buy it."

Oh, the kids will want it - much of the marketing will be targeted at getting kids to plead with Mom and Dad for the XBox. But Mom and Dad will have the ultimate say. I've got teenage kids (and a pre-teen)who are very electronic game savvy - and frankly they just want a next generation box. Actually, if I ask them now, what they want is a PS2 because their friends have one and they can share games, and they see games on the shelves for the PS2. They're not real interested in what may be available in a few months.

I just asked my twin 10 year olds which one they want if they could get only one, and they said Gamecube. They haven't experienced the Xbox marketing onslaught yet.

I'm sure there's a Nintendo marketing campaign too. And a Sony one and possibly a PS2 price cut.

It'll be interesting.

I don't think the delay will impact sales at all.

Sure, there will be people who will see the Xbox at their friend's house after it's released first and say "oo, that's neat, screw Gamecube I'm gettin' this." And there will be people who will wait. And there will be people who don't buy Xbox because of the price. And there will be people who see MGS2 and pick up a PS2 isntead.

And so on and so forth.

But there will easily be 1.5 million people willing to pay $199 for a Gamecube and another 1.5 million people who will pay $299 for an Xbox before the end of the year. In fact, there will be more than that many people for each system. And that's all they can produce and ship here, so they'll sell out.

And in the short-term, that's all that matters. Next year is a whole other story, and I don't think the 2-week delay, still out 2 weeks before Thanksgiving, is going to make one lick of difference in the Gamecube sales.