NPD November 2008: Holiday insanity is here

[forgeforsaken]

Hardware:
Wii 2.04M
DS 1.57M
Xbox 360 836k
PSP 421k
Playstation 3 378k
Playstation 2 206k

Software:
GEARS OF WAR 2* (360) 1.56 million
CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR* (360) 1.41 million
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE (WII) 796K
WII FIT (WII) 697K
MARIO KART (WII) 637K
CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR (PS3) 597K
GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* (WII) 475K
LEFT 4 DEAD (360) 410K
RESISTANCE 2* (PS3) 385K
WII MUSIC (WII) 297K

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)

[Fugitive]

Well, there's the Guitar Hero people were looking for last month...

[MattKeil]

Damn, beaten. And with a less cryptic title!

[forgeforsaken]

PS3 appears to be down from same time period last year, not good.

L4D 360 numbers are surprisingly good.

[Sarkus]

I took last holidays off from retail but I'm back this year and it is definately a Wii year once again. So those numbers are no surprise. It does, however, show to what degree users of boards like this one are not really the market the Wii is dominating. We hardly talk about the Wii around here.

In the long run it will be interesting if Nintendo can retain the market as they get older. Will the kids that are mainly getting Wii's now remain loyal to it as they get older? Or will Nintendo become the king of the entry-level and casual market while leaving the serious market for others?

[Lux]

Originally Posted by forgeforsaken

PS3 appears to be down from same time period last year, not good.

Not suprising considering how people are watching their wallets. The 360 and Wii just look cheaper (and the Wii actually is!) and that's the best selling point you can possibly have these days.

[Rob_Merritt]

I don't see the ps3 turning around at this point. if their big game, Little Big Planet, can't move units, things can't get much better from here. They will see a boost from God of War 3 but nothing else I see will sell systems at a greater rate than the 360 in the coming year.

[Sarkus]

Originally Posted by Lux

Not suprising considering how people are watching their wallets. The 360 and Wii just look cheaper (and the Wii actually is!) and that's the best selling point you can possibly have these days.

Plus the PS3 no longer has the Blu-Ray advantage now that pure players are under $300. It has to live on games and price point alone; a bad combination.

[Tyjenks]

Originally Posted by Sarkus

In the long run it will be interesting if Nintendo can retain the market as they get older. Will the kids that are mainly getting Wii's now remain loyal to it as they get older? Or will Nintendo become the king of the entry-level and casual market while leaving the serious market for others?

Don't they just get a new crop of young folks? Or the parents of the gamers buy the Wii for their coming of age kiddies? (Guilty of that one this year. Well, me and the kids.) I think the Wii is easily a sale for many different groups (obviously) just not many here.

EDIT: Frankly, I play mostly PC games because my access to the TV is limited.

[Dave Long]

Originally Posted by Sarkus

Or will Nintendo become the king of the entry-level and casual market while leaving the serious market for others?

So the only people buying the Wii are entry-level, casual and not serious? OK.

[Kool Moe Dee]

Things really do not look good for the PS3.

Nintendo is off in its own world right now, but I am still unconvinced about the Wii's ability to sell third-party games at rates competitive with the other consoles.

Also: who is buying all of these PSPs, and what are they using them for?

[Matthew Gallant]

[Sarkus]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

So the only people buying the Wii are entry-level, casual and not serious? OK.

In a general sense that's true. The lack of discussion of the Wii not only here but other "serious" boards suggests that most (though certainly not all) hard core gamers view it as a secondary system at best with a limited number of worthy titles. And yet it sells and sells to casual gamers and entry-level gamers. Thus it's fair to describe the Wii's primary user base as entry-level and casual. Nintendo has created a new gaming market, but it does not fully enclose the one defined by the PS3 and XB360, hence the titles released on those systems that sell well but either don't do well on the Wii or are never released at all.

Are their hard-core serious gamers that only play the Wii? Probably, but they don't represent a very significant part of that group of gamers.

[Dave Long]

Originally Posted by Kool Moe Dee

Things really do not look good for the PS3.

Nintendo is off in its own world right now, but I am still unconvinced about the Wii's ability to sell third-party games at rates competitive with the other consoles.

Also: who is buying all of these PSPs, and what are they using them for?

GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* (WII) 475K

That's not a third-party game now?

[Lux]

Originally Posted by Kool Moe Dee

Things really do not look good for the PS3.

Nintendo is off in its own world right now, but I am still unconvinced about the Wii's ability to sell third-party games at rates competitive with the other consoles.

Also: who is buying all of these PSPs, and what are they using them for?

My brother takes the train from Stamford into The City and back every day and his PSP has preserved his sanity. He has also mentioned that the PSP's and DSlites come out of the woodwork on those early commuter trains.

[jfletch]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

So the only people buying the Wii are entry-level, casual and not serious? OK.

My girlfriend is decidedly entry-level, casual, and not serious and she bought the system.

But I use her unit to play VC, Galaxy, and World of Goo, so whatever.

[Dave Long]

Originally Posted by Sarkus

In a general sense that's true. The lack of discussion of the Wii not only here but other "serious" boards suggests that most (though certainly not all) hard core gamers view it as a secondary system at best with a limited number of worthy titles. And yet it sells and sells to casual gamers and entry-level gamers. Thus it's fair to describe the Wii's primary user base as entry-level and casual. Nintendo has created a new gaming market, but it does not fully enclose the one defined by the PS3 and XB360, hence the titles released on those systems that sell well but either don't do well on the Wii or are never released at all.

Are their hard-core serious gamers that only play the Wii? Probably, but they don't represent a very significant part of that group of gamers.

I'm glad you've presented such compelling evidence backed up with facts and figures to support your seemingly definitive word.... oh, wait...

[Anders Hallin]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

So the only people buying the Wii are entry-level, casual and not serious? OK.

Yes, Dave, all of them. In fact, if you've been a gamer for over two years and buy a Wii, we will most likely send you to the concentration camps.

[perrinbar]

They have no problem sticking to their guns while the ship goes down. This economic climate combined with the PS3 price and the cheap Arcade model of the 360 means sticking to that price will kill them, absolutely kill them.

In other fun news look who makes all but one of those Wii games! Way to go 3rd party support.

[Sarkus]

Originally Posted by Kool Moe Dee

Nintendo is off in its own world right now, but I am still unconvinced about the Wii's ability to sell third-party games at rates competitive with the other consoles.

If you look at the sales numbers in the last year, the Wii's ability to sell third-party titles should no longer be in doubt. The tendancy of Nintendo's super franchises to sell really, really well combined with the classification of Wii Play as a game tends to obscure the success of other titles.

[Kool Moe Dee]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* (WII) 475K

That's not a third-party game now?

It is, but I wouldn't look at it as evidence that a third-party publisher could bring its entire product line to the Wii and achieve a similar (or even anything close to) level of success. It's a game that's gotten tremendous advertising support, has great brand recognition, and is very "casual friendly," but how many other games do 3rd party publishers have that fit those same criteria? Very, very few.

[perrinbar]

Originally Posted by Sarkus

If you look at the sales numbers in the last year, the Wii's ability to sell third-party titles should no longer be in doubt. The tendancy of Nintendo's super franchises to sell really, really well combined with the classification of Wii Play as a game tends to obscure the success of other titles.

That and the fact that most Wii titles sell for a long, long, long time which is unusual. However, I think it is still safe to say that third parties don't see nearly the same level of success on the Wii as the 360 and PS3 and certainly not in the same ratio, which is more concerning for them. Especially if you take out guitar hero and rock band.

[Kool Moe Dee]

Originally Posted by Sarkus

If you look at the sales numbers in the last year, the Wii's ability to sell third-party titles should no longer be in doubt. The tendancy of Nintendo's super franchises to sell really, really well combined with the classification of Wii Play as a game tends to obscure the success of other titles.

Do you have a link for Wii-specific unit sales? (not just a top 10 without individual unit counts)

[Dave Long]

Originally Posted by Kool Moe Dee

It is, but I wouldn't look at it as evidence that a third-party publisher could bring its entire product line to the Wii and achieve a similar (or even anything close to) level of success. It's a game that's gotten tremendous advertising support, has great brand recognition, and is very "casual friendly," but how many other games do 3rd party publishers have that fit those same criteria? Very, very few.

Maybe 3rd party publishers should wake up and follow the market? You know, try to run a successful business?

[Kunikos]

Originally Posted by jfletch

My girlfriend is decidedly entry-level, casual, and not serious and she bought the system.

But I use her unit to play VC, Galaxy, and World of Goo, so whatever.

huhuhuhuh you play with your gf's unit

[Dave Long]

Sony's probably not too worried just yet. PS2 sales are still not too bad and they're doing ok with software. Not great, but good enough I'm sure.

If the PS3 doesn't "wake up" by next Christmas, that's when they'll probably start to worry. The sales of PSP are also helping them keep PS3 prices high (and likely either profitable or break even on hardware).

[perrinbar]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

Maybe 3rd party publishers should wake up and follow the market? You know, try to run a successful business?

They do, just unsuccessfully. Also, it does seem to mostly be about name recognition. Put Nintendo on the box, bam!, people pick it out of a lineup. Nintendo also does a good job of making sure everything they do is awesome, doesn't hurt.

Third parties are trying, perhaps poorly, but they are trying. They need to start releasing peripherals, that's where the money is at.

[Kool Moe Dee]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

Maybe 3rd party publishers should wake up and follow the market? You know, try to run a successful business?

Come on -- that's a lazy answer. You know as well as anyone else that third parties try all the time to "follow the market." Hence all the American Idol games, Dancing With the Stars games, and platformer/flavor of the week clones. What I said was that it's difficult to create a product with the combination of a great license or concept, casual appeal, and great advertising -- you're competing with Nintendo, who have a near stranglehold on quality IP on their platforms and casual appeal that is so consistent that it is now assumed.

[mkozlows]

Originally Posted by Dave Long

So the only people buying the Wii are entry-level, casual and not serious? OK.

To a first approximation, yes.

Look at the software numbers. There are more Wiis than 360s already in homes. There were twice as many Wiis sold this month. By all rights, Wii software should have outpaced 360 software by a ton.

And yet: The top game for the 360 sold more than the top two Wii games combined. The top two games for the 360 sold more than the top five Wii games combined. (And that's counting an extra controller as a game, which we all know it isn't; it gets a lot worse if you don't do that.)

The 360 is selling more games despite selling fewer consoles. Which means that, yes, the Wii gamers are comparatively casual, light players. Or else they're so amazed by the incredible depth of Wii Sports that they never need to try other things. I know where I'm putting my bets.

[Dave Long]

Originally Posted by perrinbar

Nintendo also does a good job of making sure everything they do is awesome, doesn't hurt.

Third parties are trying, perhaps poorly, but they are trying.

This is really the gist of it. Third parties aren't releasing games of the same quality as Nintendo for the most part. Put your A level team on a game that you can make in a year or so for the Wii and I'll bet you get a nice return on that investment.