Android/Google/Motorola -- what does the future hold?

[XPav]

Since the HP WebOS poll is so fun to look at, now that it's been knifed, I'm going to do another poll here based on Googlerola that we'll be able to look back on in a few years and see how good our crystal balls are.

So -- vote away. Your names will be recorded for posterity!

[Gladguy]

If I were HTC or Samsung or LG, I'd be a bit concerned with this merger. I voted Googlerola will pull an Apple, and keep flagship phones under their brand only, though I don't think this will happen immediately.

Since the Android license is free, Google has zero incentive to continue to offer it to companies that are now effectively competitors. They will not be losing any revenue by cutting them off, and the Android brand is now strong enough to carry the day (which it wasn't with the release of the original Google phone).

The Motorola purchase was gutsy and expensive, but prescient and visionary. Great move by Google, IMO.

[Armando Penblade]

Google seem to have developed an absolutely atrocious relationship with carriers and their desires do NOT sync up well. The various Google phones (G1 + Nexii) are avoided by carriers with something to lose and the OS is constantly overloaded with carrier crapware that Google hates. Google wants to sell phones directly and let people move them all around the world and use them with Google Voice for calls and texting via data rather than paid plans. I can't see any way in hell that they'll be able to break into Verizon and AT&T without either completely pulling a 180 on their vision for the product.

So, other companies continue to sell the phones in ways that make carriers happy, while the increasingly Google-influenced Motorola is slowly pushed aside.

And if not, well, shit bonerz!

[Nawid A]

The Motorola purchase was gutsy and expensive, but prescient and visionary. Great move by Google, IMO.

I wish my desperation was prescient and visionary.

[Cosmic Hippo]

What makes it a move of desperation?

[Linoleum]

This seems as good a place as any to marvel at how bad some of the tablet marketing efforts have been. HP wasn't even close to the worst, while the Glee actress and Russell Brand probably weren't ideal spokespeople, at least they visually demonstrated the tablet.

This is the ad I keep getting subjected to on hulu for the Toshiba Thrive:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNEoMIGEhzs

I don't recall the last time I've seen such an abysmal ad. It never even shows the tablet in use. Does anybody really think the American consumer is susceptible to that blatant an attempt at an ego stroke? The Thrive is the first tablet to get it right...because BigBoxCo has...a lounge singer?

Nobody expects a party walking into Best Buy buying a product, although funnily enough, it might trigger an association of instances where it happens in the real world. Unfortunately for Toshiba, that's their main competitor.

[XPav]

What will be interesting is if some companies decide to fork Android to break Google out of the picture.

[extarbags]

What makes it a move of desperation?

Because obviously the only non-desperate move would be for Google to renounce Android forever and beg to be taken over by Apple, the greatest company in the history of the universe.

[Bluto]

I'm starting to think Android ran over Nawid A's dog.

[Brian Rubin]

I'm starting to think Android ran over Nawid A's dog.

And kicked his kitten.

[Hugin]

What makes it a move of desperation?

They sank the entirety of their last two years of profits into a company with a bad product portfolio and an almost certainly incompatible corporate culture, money that it will be very hard for them to ever make back. Basically, they way, way overpaid for some patents and years of management headaches.

[Nawid A]

I'm starting to think Android ran over Nawid A's dog.

I don't dislike Android very much (actually my phone after flashing and finding the right rom and launcher is pretty decent).

I don't like the bullshit that Android fanboys spew though. I mean, they morphed into the Flash Defense Force at some point. Fucking Flash, man. FLASH. And there's a user on this board who thinks Apple's business model of generating profit is the end of the world. It's amusing that for all the complaints about Apple fanboys, Android's are probably worse.

I also find it funny that there may be a (short) period of time in the future where my only tablet and my only phone will both be running Android.

I'm really hoping for another mobile competitor to gain ground. Actually, if Microsoft doesn't, they're fucked for the long term.

EDIT: I still don't Android fanboys as much as I do people who put cases on their devices, but that's another story.

[Cosmic Hippo]

I think Microsoft will if they get the marketing right. Windows Mobile 7 is actually really nice, from the times I've gotten to play with one for work.

[rei]

I can't believe they release Windows Phone 7 and let it sit for a year without a major update. Apple cranked out point releases with feature additions after they launched their phones.

[Nawid A]

I can't believe they release Windows Phone 7 and let it sit for a year without a major update. Apple cranked out point releases with feature additions after they launched their phones.

Microsoft is so horribly managed it's ridiculous. Crazy talent there, but awful, awful management. Ballmer is a joke.

[strategy]

They sank the entirety of their last two years of profits into a company with a bad product portfolio and an almost certainly incompatible corporate culture, money that it will be very hard for them to ever make back. Basically, they way, way overpaid for some patents and years of management headaches.

About the overpaying... we'll see. Clearly, they don't think so, or they would not be attempting the purchase (worth noting that the Nortel Patent Portfolio sold last year was valuated at $1 billion - it sold for $4.5b).

But no question that Motorola is going to be a major, major headache for Google, which is why my guess above is "spin off minus the patents".

[Tracy Baker]

This is the ad I keep getting subjected to on hulu for the Toshiba Thrive:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNEoMIGEhzs

I don't recall the last time I've seen such an abysmal ad. It never even shows the tablet in use. Does anybody really think the American consumer is susceptible to that blatant an attempt at an ego stroke? The Thrive is the first tablet to get it right...because BigBoxCo has...a lounge singer?

This Thrive ad is almost as bad. A feature laundry list that will go completely over their target market's head, set to annoying music, complete with a long intro that just spells Toshiba's name in the most excruciating possible way. Bonus points for one of the worst taglines I've seen in ages: "The Perfect Sum Of All its Parts." (Although the tagline in the ad you linked, "The First Tablet to Get it Right," is nearly as terrible.)

It's nuts watching so many companies consistently get it wrong like this while Apple consistently gets it right. Though I suppose it's hard to show off your tablet when you don't have any killer apps because everyone is too busy developing for iOS.

[Zylon]

I'm finding the leading poll choice ("Googlerola becomes the premier Android supplier") confounding. The greatest strength of Android is that it's been adopted by so freaking many manufacturers. Google would be extraordinarily foolish to attempt to bump everyone but Motorola down to second-class status.

[dermot]

I'm finding the leading poll choice ("Googlerola becomes the premier Android supplier") confounding. The greatest strength of Android is that it's been adopted by so freaking many manufacturers. Google would be extraordinarily foolish to attempt to bump everyone but Motorola down to second-class status.

Doesn't mean Google won't do something foolish. Besides which, regardless of all of the noise they've made about not interfering with Motorola and leaving things as they are and blah blah blah, when push comes to shove they have to get involved to some degree and that's going to have implications for Google, Motorola and third-party vendors of Android devices.

[Murph]

Yeah, but Google loves having The Marketshare (tm) that Android has obtained. I'm kind of torn between options 3 and 5, but mostly I don't think it'll change that much. Google has never been shown to be forceful about how people use their products (or don't.) I don't think they'll be shoehorning anyone into anything, and I don't think they'll push other manufacturers away.

Maybe I'm naive, but I think other than maybe guiding Motorola more into the "pure Android" experience (which is a plus), I don't think they'll change things much.

[Charlatan]

It's nuts watching so many companies consistently get it wrong like this while Apple consistently gets it right. Though I suppose it's hard to show off your tablet when you don't have any killer apps because everyone is too busy developing for iOS.

What's crazy to me is that most of the non-Apple ads seem so fixated on the raw specs of the machines, often citing CPU type, RAM, etc. When it seems clear that people just don't care. I guess it just means that the companies driving these ad campaigns are still thinking with the computer-centric roots.

Also, as my wife loves to point out, all the Droid commercials are so geared towards men - all the lightning strikes, Terminator-type sfx, and the like. Just spitballing here, but I'm going to guess about 50% of phone customers are women, and so it might be a good idea to make an ad that appeals to them.

[rei]

The Samsung Galaxy II ads Bell plays up North are super-annoying with focus on 4G, 21MBps speed, dual-core etc.

[Tracy Baker]

What's crazy to me is that most of the non-Apple ads seem so fixated on the raw specs of the machines, often citing CPU type, RAM, etc. When it seems clear that people just don't care. I guess it just means that the companies driving these ad campaigns are still thinking with the computer-centric roots.

It's the classic advertising mistake of focusing on features instead of benefits. I expect to see it when I visit mom and pop shops (even though they often get it right), but there's really no excuse for multinational companies with huge marketing budgets and teams to commit that sin.

[mkozlows]

Maybe I'm naive, but I think other than maybe guiding Motorola more into the "pure Android" experience (which is a plus), I don't think they'll change things much.

Okay, but when it comes time for them to make the flagship Jellybean (note: not the real codename, probably) phone, do you think they're going to reach out to samsung or HTC to do it, or do you think they're going to work with their own hardware division?

The former is insane, the latter alienates other Android licensees. And they can try to be scrupulously fair about things, but no matter how fair they try to be, it's always easier to do stuff inside your company than with external partners.

[Eric T Cheng]

What's crazy to me is that most of the non-Apple ads seem so fixated on the raw specs of the machines, often citing CPU type, RAM, etc. When it seems clear that people just don't care. I guess it just means that the companies driving these ad campaigns are still thinking with the computer-centric roots.

As a male geek, I care about specs over "Magic." [tm]

[Hugin]

As a male geek, I care about specs over "Magic." [tm]

Enh, it's not "magic". I've harped on this before, but I think it's a huge deal. When you go to an Apple store or whatever and scroll a long page on an iPad, or pinch zoom a page, or do any kind of touch thing, there's a particular kind of accuracy and responsiveness that feels right even if you've never messed with a tablet before and you only can spend a couple minutes in the store.

Now, you go to another tablet. And it has a blah blah processor and blah memory and blah blah tech blah....but you scroll the screen or zoom or do a touch element...if it's the slight bit vague or "dead" feeling or stuttery or janky, you've instantly lost a lot of people, regardless of what the specs inside are.

You can talk about how your tablet plays Flash. Well, if they fire up a Flash site, and it's slow, or stuttery, or shitty in any of the ways we actually are kind of used to Flash being shitty, even if that's bad coding on the website's part or a weak network connection or whatever, again, your tablet has lost some people. Even if it mostly plays flash mostly well most of the time, human beings are wired to remember the negative experiences.

It's not magic. It's more stringent app policies, it's more complete platform control, it's a stronger commitment to doing a defined set of things well even at the expense of flexibility/total feature set/FREEDOM!

[mkozlows]

It's the classic advertising mistake of focusing on features instead of benefits. I expect to see it when I visit mom and pop shops (even though they often get it right), but there's really no excuse for multinational companies with huge marketing budgets and teams to commit that sin.

Yeah, but emphasizing the benefits ends up sounding like a big nothingburger. "This phone is blazing fast!" is a claim that basically everyone makes, and can mean basically anything (including that it has an LTE radio in an otherwise unremarkable phone). "Dual-core processor" is something that's only lightly tech-jargony, which lends itself to basic comparative understanding (two processors == twice as good), and which is less background noise-y.

[Murph]

Okay, but when it comes time for them to make the flagship Jellybean (note: not the real codename, probably) phone, do you think they're going to reach out to samsung or HTC to do it, or do you think they're going to work with their own hardware division?

The former is insane, the latter alienates other Android licensees. And they can try to be scrupulously fair about things, but no matter how fair they try to be, it's always easier to do stuff inside your company than with external partners.

Well, considering the first "flagship" Android phone was HTC and most recent was Samsung, they've each already had a shot. I don't think it alienates manufacturers to not have the "flagship" device...When it was announced that Samsung would be making the most recent one, (Nexus S), HTC didn't take its toys and go home. It's still a strong platform, and HTC is still one of the most active manufacturers.

Will there be a stigma about Motorola getting the next crack because Google bought them? Perhaps. Do I think it'll drastically impact the marketplace? Nope...not on round 1, and only then if they botch it.

[Tracy Baker]

Yeah, but emphasizing the benefits ends up sounding like a big nothingburger. "This phone is blazing fast!" is a claim that basically everyone makes, and can mean basically anything (including that it has an LTE radio in an otherwise unremarkable phone). "Dual-core processor" is something that's only lightly tech-jargony, which lends itself to basic comparative understanding (two processors == twice as good), and which is less background noise-y.

"This phone is blazing fast!" is a feature, not a benefit. Apple showing people using the iPad for various things they want to do and it handling everything quickly and smoothly is an example of showcasing benefits.

"Dual-core processor" is lightly tech-jargony for this crowd, but when you're trying to market something to a mass audience it may as well be Greek. My mom doesn't know what a processor core is, and she doesn't want to learn. All she cares about is that any tablet she buys is simple to use, has a great UI, and runs the programs she wants to run.

You can sell to a small crowd of tech-savvy people by touting your dual-core processor, or you can sell to everyone by demonstrating the benefits that dual-core processor provides. Nobody cares if their tablet has fifty cores if it doesn't browse the web quickly or run Angry Birds.

[Hugin]

No one who asks me about tablets (I'm the go-to tech answer guy for much of my social circle and at my workplace) mentions specs. They want to be convinced it's not a toy. That's a biggie. If they're going to drop 400 or 500 dollars they want to be able to justify it to themselves and their spouse. They want to be told a usage case narrative that fits their life. They want to know about apps, and how the thing fits into their hobbies, their leisure, their kids schoolwork, etc.

The only "technical" spec they ever care about, and this is still not even always, is how much storage it has, for music and movies.