The NFL 2011 Thread

[Matt Bowyer]

I don't think you can point to Shanahan and say "just hire an assistant" because the guys who are getting fired right now were all on their first head coaching gig. Mike Singletary wasn't old and washed up. Neither was Josh McDaniels. The bottom line is that the NFL is super competitive, and it's really hard to put all the pieces in place. Is Mike McCarthy a great head coach? Or is he a good head coach with a really talented team? Remember, McCarthy was with the Niners when they chose Smith over Rodgers. Caldwell looked like a pretty good coach until Peyton got hurt.

Marty Schottenheimer got the Chargers to 14-2, and he was ancient. Dick Vermeil was head coach when the Rams won their Super Bowl. For every example of a guy who meets some blanket criteria and is successful, there is a counter-example of a guy who meets the same criteria and was unsuccessful. That's why it's stupid anytime someone says "defensive coordinators don't make good head coaches" or so-and-so is too young or old. There are way too many factors in play for it ever to be that simple.

I'm not pointing just to Shanahan and saying "He's failing, don't hire guys who've done it before!" I also know that there's a lot more to Washington than just the head coach, since Snyder is famously problematic. But I am thinking that hiring the celebrity coach is just a bad idea, and I think that's what a lot of the retired coaches, especially Cowher and Gruden, are. Gruden had an entire offseason program for how great he was, because ESPN is shameless.

A small sample size stat some people toss around is that no head coach has ever won two Super Bowls with two different teams. Plenty of coaches have MADE Super Bowls with two different teams -- Don Shula, Dan Reeves, Bill Parcells, probably a few more that I'm not thinking of right now.

I certainly don't want Cowher or Gruden coming into KC, at least. There's the start of a good team here, especially on defense with Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Eric Berry, Justin Houston, and Kendrick Lewis all under contract for a few more years. Offensively, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Tony Moeaki are the start of something big, and Jonathan Baldwin certainly has the potential. I'm too worried about one of them coming in with a new "vision" and they blow up everything we have already to stake their claim on the team.

The Steelers didn't look for a celebrity. They looked at their two in-house guys, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm, and they looked at Minnesota's defensive coordinator, Mike Tomlin. Tomlin certainly has been a great coach. Whiz has been good down in Arizona, if a bit suspect at talent acquisition and handling the quarterback position. I'd like to see Russ Grimm get some interviews.

The Steelers have been one of the best organizations in all of football for as long as they've been around. More teams need to copy them.

[Matt Bowyer]

I think it's a possibility, but the Rams are staring at 2-14 so that's going to be tough for owner Kroenke to swallow. The only redeeming note in Spags favor is that his defense is playing decently.

I'd be ok with retaining them for another year. I'd like to give McD another year with the offense and I'm not happy about getting a third HC in seven years if it comes to that. The players seem to play hard for Spags. And their first four picks in this year's draft weren't players that come in and you'd normally expect a big impact. Robert Quinn sat out his senior season so he was rusty, but he does have five sacks in limited snaps, and the other three are a TE and two WRs, often players that need a couple of years to get up to speed in the NFL.

Every team has injuries but the Rams have gone through about ten cornerbacks, which is just crazy, and both starting offensive tackles are out for the season too.

Ultimately, the HC is responsible, though. If the team isn't winning it's his job to change that.

I think the first member of the coaching staff that needs to go is the Strength and Conditioning Coach. Football Outsiders has their Adjusted Games Lost stat, tracking how many games are lost to injury by starters during the year, and while I don't have that in front of me today I remember the Rams routinely ranking at the bottom of that list. Injury is a skill, as people like to say, and some teams are better about injuries than others -- Dallas often is near the top of the league in that stat. The Rams have got to work more on avoiding injuries to keep from getting into these situations, since they don't have the talent on the roster or in the front office to routinely have Pittsburgh/Green Bay levels of success with guys off the street (James Harrison, Sam Shields, etc.).

[Erik J.]

Harrison banned for his hit on McCoy. I am a biased Ravens fan, so I will keep my mouth shut on this one.

[Bill Dungsroman]

I certainly don't want Cowher or Gruden coming into KC, at least.

I don't think any team should hire those guys, nor any of the former head coaches who haven't coached in a few seasons floating around. Time to move on, in my opinion.

[Shadarr]

The Steelers have been one of the best organizations in all of football for as long as they've been around. More teams need to copy them.

More teams should try, I'm not sure whether anyone actually can. The Steelers have a very strong front office. That means not only do they draft well because they know what to look for in players, it also means they know what to look for in a coach. Now, maybe Pioli can have similar success. But most of the time when a team is looking for a new head coach it's because the team sucks, and a lot of the time that starts in the front office.

I am even more excited by the Niners hiring Harbaugh because their front office isn't any good. Prior to this they tried an experienced coach, a hot assistant and promoting from within, and each was worse than the last. They just kept hiring guys and eventually lucked into a good one.

Also, there's the issue of how much impact a good coach can have on a bad team. The Steelers were in the pretty rare position of replacing a coach after a championship. Tomlin didn't have to clean house or change the culture or even build a wining team over a couple seasons. I'm not saying Tomlin isn't a good coach, but I wonder whether he would have been able to come into a situation like Miami or St Louis and keep his job.

[Mightynute]

Perhaps the Chiefs would be best served by letting their OC and DC handle the training, and come game time, just have a fan call-in poll that goes directly to the QB's helmet for what play to call.

[BaconTastesGood]

Now, maybe Pioli can have similar success. But most of the time when a team is looking for a new head coach it's because the team sucks, and a lot of the time that starts in the front office.

Unresearched hypothesis -- replacing the front office at the same time as replacing the coach yields higher success than just replacing the coach. The most dramatic example I can recall is when Polian/Mora Sr/Manning showed up in Indy and went from 3-13 to 13-3 the next year.

Also, there's the issue of how much impact a good coach can have on a bad team.

Numerous coaches have demonstrated the ability to turn around really, really bad teams. Off the top of my head I want to say Parcells, Holmgren, Schotty, and Jim Mora Sr. have turned around bad franchises pretty quickly at least twice each.

The Steelers were in the pretty rare position of replacing a coach after a championship. Tomlin didn't have to clean house or change the culture or even build a wining team over a couple seasons. I'm not saying Tomlin isn't a good coach, but I wonder whether he would have been able to come into a situation like Miami or St Louis and keep his job.

Unfortunately history would seem to be on the side of "Coaches inheriting great teams can coast". Switzer and Caldwell come to mind. You could argue that Seifert is an odd datapoint since he was still relatively successful in San Francisco before Mooch took over but then had an abysmal tenure in Carolina.

[mkozlows]

Numerous coaches have demonstrated the ability to turn around really, really bad teams. Off the top of my head I want to say Parcells, Holmgren, Schotty, and Jim Mora Sr. have turned around bad franchises pretty quickly at least twice each.

Holmgren's Green Bay tenure, at least, is evidence in favour of your "and a GM too" theory -- they brought in Ron Wolf, who famously made the Favre trade and acquired Reggie White in free agency.

[Nawid A]

Harrison banned for his hit on McCoy. I am a biased Ravens fan, so I will keep my mouth shut on this one.

I don't like that suspension a bit.

[Sarkus]

I think BTG was referring to Holmgren's Seattle history, not in Green Bay. Holmgren (Seattle), Parcells (Patriots, Jets, Cowboys), and Schottenheimer (KC?, Washington, San Diego) all were able to at least return teams to a competitive level with relatively full control. None of them were able to make the ultimate move and win a title, though Holmgren and Parcells managed Superbowl appearances with their second teams.

Cowher strikes me as a guy who could have success in a second job in part because from what's been written the last few years he wants a relatively strong GM in place. He just wants to make sure that person is someone he is comfortable with. Gruden would probably bring someone in as well, but his level of involvement with personnel in Tampa was pretty high so he'd probably want that power again as well. Jeff Fisher is also a name that will be out there and he seems to have worked well with strong GMs in the past as well.

[Mightynute]

I don't like that suspension a bit.

Even if not for that hit - it's James Harrison. At any given time he's 90% likely to be guilty of something dirty, so it can probably be considered the entire season's aggregate dirty hits adding up.

[Shadarr]

Unresearched hypothesis -- replacing the front office at the same time as replacing the coach yields higher success than just replacing the coach. The most dramatic example I can recall is when Polian/Mora Sr/Manning showed up in Indy and went from 3-13 to 13-3 the next year.

When you do it right, it works great. Although I would say it had more to do with Polian than Mora Sr, since they had to replace him to win a championship. So, then it's just a matter of "hire a good GM and your team improves" which is almost a truism. The question is, who is hiring the GM? Sort of like why bad teams often go through a lot of coaches, because they don't recognize a good coach (or can't get one to interview--Oakland). The Niners hired a coach and GM at the same time, and neither of them were the solution.

Numerous coaches have demonstrated the ability to turn around really, really bad teams. Off the top of my head I want to say Parcells, Holmgren, Schotty, and Jim Mora Sr. have turned around bad franchises pretty quickly at least twice each.

Parcells, yes, that's sort of his thing. Holmgren went through several years of mediocrity and had to give up his GM duties before Seattle got good. Mora Sr may have improved bad teams but he was infamous for playoff futility. Schottenheimer got jobbed in San Diego. I hope it costs AJ Smith his.

Usually when a team has a sudden turnaround like the Niners this year, it's because the talent was there but they had horrible coaching and underperformed. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about good coaches going to teams with no talent. Jim Schwartz wasn't able to turn Detroit around in one season because the team just wasn't good enough. Do we really know whether Spagnola is a good coach? The Rams are so weak at so many positions, even before the injuries, that I don't feel like we can judge.

Unfortunately history would seem to be on the side of "Coaches inheriting great teams can coast". Switzer and Caldwell come to mind. You could argue that Seifert is an odd datapoint since he was still relatively successful in San Francisco before Mooch took over but then had an abysmal tenure in Carolina.

Seifert wasn't "relatively successful." He had the highest winning percentage of any coach in NFL history when he left the Niners. So, what does it mean? I'd say he was a pretty good coach. However, I think there are different types of coaches. Some guys can build a team from the ground up. Parcells is that kind of guy, and so was Walsh. Seifert wasn't. And it probably starts at the QB position. If you can't identify and develop a young QB, then you either need to get a veteran somehow or you shouldn't buy a house there. Jon Gruden was a good coach when he had Gannon and even Brad Johnson. However, after Johnson is a litany of failure and eventually that franchise fell apart. Bill Cowher is lucky he worked for the Steelers, because most teams wouldn't let you hang around to learn from the Kordell Stewart failure. Mike Shanahan was successful in San Fran and Denver when he had an established veteran QB, but has never been able to find or develop a young QB.

Which is sort of a roundabout way of saying that if you already have the QB in place, you can look at different types of coaches. If you don't, then you pretty much need to find a guy who can identify your QB of the future. Any team that doesn't have a QB and considers hiring Mike Shanahan or Jon Gruden deserves what they get.

[Sarkus]

Holmgren went through several years of mediocrity and had to give up his GM duties before Seattle got good.

Depends on what you mean by "good." Holmgren as GM/Coach went 9-7(playoffs), 6-10, 9-7, and 7-9. Then, even though he wasn't the GM anymore, it was still mostly his hires reporting to a new team president (Bob Whitsitt, a former NBA GM) the team went 10-6 (playoffs) and 9-7 (playoffs) the next two seasons. When they installed a true GM in 2005 the team went 13-3 and to the Superbowl, but went 9-7, 10-6, and 4-12 the remainder of Holmgren's run.

My point being that Holmgren did manage to make the Seahwawks competitive while he had full control.

[Erik J.]

I don't like that suspension a bit.

I believe it has been some time coming for Harrison, actually. He didn't NEED to make that hit in that manner. But I acknowledge my basis and all-around hate for the Steelers, so my opinion is to be taken with a grain of salt.

[Matt Bowyer]

I think Harrison has quite a body of work built up. What is with him and the Cleveland Browns, anyway? Cribbs and Massaquoi last year, McCoy this year.

[Zuwadza]

[sluggo]

I guess that begs the question: how much blame should the owners shoulder for injuries to Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel? It's not like they went into the season with Tyler Palko and Jackie Battle as the cornerstones to their season strategy.

[Erik J.]

I guess that begs the question: how much blame should the owners shoulder for injuries to Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel? It's not like they went into the season with Tyler Palko and Jackie Battle as the cornerstones to their season strategy.

But it is their responsibility to add depth. Look at the travesty going on in Indie with Peyton out.

[Tim James]

I think that's the first funny thing I've ever seen an NFL fan do.

As you'd expect, he almost ruined it by taking it to levels of obsessive, un-hip nerdiness, but he saved it with the free hot dog.

[CheesyPoof]

I guess that begs the question: how much blame should the owners shoulder for injuries to Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel? It's not like they went into the season with Tyler Palko and Jackie Battle as the cornerstones to their season strategy.

I suppose it goes to his first issue, $32M under the cap spending.

[Mightynute]

I think that's the first funny thing I've ever seen an NFL fan do.

As you'd expect, he almost ruined it by taking it to levels of obsessive, un-hip nerdiness, but he saved it with the free hot dog.

Eh, I see it more as entitlement whining. The ass bought season tickets to the Chiefs. That means you forfeit any right to whine when they have a shitty season. Sort of like building your house on a flood plain means you waive your right to cry about it when it gets washed away.

"Wah wah, we had a bad season!"

Of course we had a bad season, we're Kansas City. We don't do this "winning" thing.

[Mr Bismarck]

All he does is win games.

I can't stand Skip Bayless, but this is worth it simply for the look on Stephen A Smith's face.

[Tim James]

Eh, I see it more as entitlement whining.

You always get a free pass on that if it's funny or over the top, even unintentionally. This qualifies.

[caesarbear]

All he does is win games.

I can't stand Skip Bayless, but this is worth it simply for the look on Stephen A Smith's face.

So I guess Brady's knee will get shattered this Sunday. And Hoyer comes down with the flu. And Welker gets kidnapped by the Russian mob. And Gronk transforms into Godzilla and swims for Tokyo.

The Pat's D does have a way of making poor QBs look good.

[Erik J.]

Unless it is just an absolute debacle, the outcome won't matter in terms of the Broncos losing.

[sluggo]

But it is their responsibility to add depth. Look at the travesty going on in Indie with Peyton out.

I think the depth argument only goes so far. If you want to argue that the Colts did a godawful job of building a team capable of surviving without Peyton, for instance, I see merit to that.

But depth is a problem that all teams face, and it's not like there's a Costco with high-end NFL players that teams ignore because they're too cheap. How many teams really have top-flight backup QBs? The Texans are headed to the playoffs with a third stringer. The Bears have lost their QB and RB and they haven't scored an offensive TD this month. Was there some obvious acquisition the Chiefs didn't make?

So to me, putting up a banner complaining about Tyler Palco and other backups makes this guy another dumbass fan who can't tell the difference between bad luck and bad management. When you lose your best offensive and defensive players in the first two weeks of the season, your team is probably screwed, and it's not the owner's fault. Sometimes you just get unlucky. Deal with it.

And really, that sign looks enough of a waste of money that it's hard to feel much sympathy for that dude's wallet. :)

[Shadarr]

When you're $32 million under the cap, there kind of is a Costco for backup players. It's called free agency. You won't find a starting QB there, but a backup? Absolutely. They could've had Vince Young, Bruce Gradkowski, Matt Moore or Derek Anderson. They could've made a run at Tavares Jackson, Billy Volek or Seneca Wallace.

[Erik J.]

As stated, I don't think you get to sit 32M under the cap when Palko is your emergency plan. Sorry, they are responsible for fielding shit backups with that kind of cap room. I'm not saying you can get all-stars, but you can do _something_. But Palko?

[Omniscia]

What the heck happened to David Garrard, anyway?

[Omniscia]

What the heck happened to David Garrard, anyway?