Reply With Quotelol Washington and Oregon "tossup states"? He is on some powerful narcotics.
lol Washington and Oregon "tossup states"? He is on some powerful narcotics.
Dick Morris has less credibility than a... well it seems like every exagerrated example of a liar I can think of already works at Fox News.
I like how he puts VA as "Strongly McCain" when the political analysts not on crack list it as "Tossup". A ridiculously partisan analysis.
Wisconsin is a tossup state?
News to me.
lol newsmax
Actually, the polls in those states shifted in McCain's direction following the Palin announcement. Even CNN only has them tilting towards Obama now rather than being solid for him as was the case earlier.Originally Posted by noun
What I don't get are states that should be solidly democractic, like Minnesota, and states that are getting killed economically under the current administration, like Ohio and Michigan, are all basically toss-up states. It's really making me think the racism factor is higher than I thought it was.
Here's a CNN map that shows the latest polling. Note that Washington State is a 6 point Obama lead, but it's within the margin of error so it's a toss-up state. Same deal with Wisconsin. Morris is being very optimistic, however, and the polling is shifting the other way right now due to the economy and doubts about Palin that have emerged.
Last edited by Sarkus; 09-18-2008 at 12:28 PM.
This is probably why guys like Bob Cherub are so sure McCain is going to win it.
Also, he has Hawaii as only "leaning" Obama, despite the fact that the last two state polls show Obama with a 30+ point lead. Also, Iowa is not "leaning McCain." I have not seen a single poll--ever--that has put McCain ahead of Obama in Iowa. The most recent state polls have Obama ahead there by 12-15 points.
That electoral map isn't anywhere close to reality. Here's one that's more realistic.
Still, Ohio and Michigan are still toss-ups in the realistic map. I honestly don't think it's racism in a lot of those places.... it's good old fashioned anti-intellectualism and anti-elitism. The same reason that Gore didn't trounce Bush, despite being grossly more qualified. My family who comes from Ohio (the vast majority of them) don't have a racist bone in their bodies. But when you start using fancy pants high-falutin' intellekshooawl words, their faces scrunch up & they immediately take a dislike to you. This despite the fact that most of them are college educated.
My family in West Virginia, on the other hand....
Edit - Sarkus added a link to a more realistic electoral map. *Shakes fist*
no...
El conseguir cogido con su dick en la boca de una puta = Dia Opuesto, permanente!
I suspect after this week's stock market collapse every poll is invalid.
Yup.
And if Dick Morris were smart, he'd be "Brain" Morris.
States voting against their own best interest isn't exactly a new concept. I think that states like Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska have been pretty solidly red for some time, despite the fact that they rarely benefit from Republican leadership. Kansas has been used in case studies regarding people voting against their wallets and going instead with some gut idea of what they think their party stands for as opposed to what it has really done for (or to) them.
But Washington and Oregon have gone Democratic for the last 20 years because of Seattle and Portland, two of the most liberal cities in the US. Sure, the rest of those states are decidedly red, but are usually overruled by the liberals. There is just no way in hell those states are going red in 2008.
Except that Minnesota, Ohio, and Michigan have long histories of being supportive of the Democrats. That's what I don't get: it's not a cultural disconnect in the same way those other states are.
In 1992 and 1996 Clinton won MN and MI by large margins and Ohio by 6.4% in 1996 (it was a 2% win in 1992). In 2000 Gore won MI by over 5% and MN by 2.4% and OH went for Bush by 3.5%. In 2004, Kerry got both MN and MI by 3.4% and Bush got OH by 2.1%. So why has this shift occurred?
I'm not disagreeing, I'm just pointing out that Obama's margins in both states have narrowed in the last month or so. Morris is being very optimistic in his estimates, no doubt.
In Dick Morris' defense, he is a lying sack of shit.
/Jon Stewart
I barely care who wins at this point but I think that anybody that thinks that Obama is a total shoe in is probably deluding themselves.
The candidates are both incredibly suboptimal and voters are irrational.
What makes Obama suboptimal? I'm not speaking rhetorically.
Seriously, if you guys don't elect Obama, you are going to look like such doofuses.
Oh, please. We voted in Bush. Twice. We're used to looking like doofuses.
It's not useless if you look at it as the Republican's planned victory map. All the red plus all the pink is 290. Obama needs all the blue and yellow, plus 21 out of the 68 electoral votes in pink states to win.
So Morris thinks there are three ways Obama can win:
1. Florida
2. Ohio plus any of four: New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa or New Hampshire
3. Sweep of the small four: New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire
That's probably a decent prediction.
He's a relative newcomer to national politics, and he lacks the executive experience that the governor of a state would have. As a candidate, he's probably sub-optimal just because he's black, and has to content with a lot of racism (most importantly, sub-conscious racism). He's also pretty much a confirmed mainstream Democrat, which puts him at an ideological distance from a sizable part of the country.
Yes, that.
And on McCain's minuses: running under the aegis of an unpopular President, economy is tanking rapidly, candidate is old and running mate is untested and inexperienced.
There are other problems with McCain that are minuses for me but not everyone: Iraq war and McCain's negative/lying campaigning.
State polling trails national polling (as of today national polling has obama ahead). If there is no new big breaking news, it's a safe bet Obama will be back in the lead on 538 in a couple days when the state polling catches up.
Two weeks from now? No one knows. Neither of these guys is a "shoe in" at all, and anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.
I can only speak for my my experiences as a Minnesotan. The major population center of the Twin Cities is solidly Democratic territory. Heck, RNC host St. Paul voted its Democratic mayor out over his support of the Bush presidency in favor of another Democrat. In Minneapolis, we call Republicans who are running for office "Third Party Candidates" as they often pull less support than the Green Party.
However, Minnesota has a large and growing population in "exurbs/outer-ring suburbs" or whatever you choose to call them. These areas, across the country as a whole, tend to lean Republican. At least in the data I've seen. I was gonna post a little more detailed info, but then I got busy with actual work. Oh well.
Iowa has Obama +12 and New Mexico has Obama +8, I don't think those are states McCain can pick off.
So, here's what I see as the tossup states:
Leans Obama, cannot win without:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Leans Obama:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Who the hell knows:
Colorado
Ohio
Leans McCain:
Virginia
Missouri
Nevada
Leans McCain, cannot win without:
Florida
Right now, from a pure game theory standpoint, there's quite a few ways this can go (including a tie scenario, mindbendingly enough). However, I think we can safely end with the following assumptions just for giggles, based on voting history:
Obama: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire
McCain: Florida, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico
This gives everyone their must win states, along with Ohio for McCain, which is a pretty big stretch but I suspect Ohio is going to break Republican again this year. Just a gut check here.
This means we start with D 249 / R 252, and the tossup states are:
Nevada (5) , Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10).
All of these have both candidates within 2 points of each other in the latest polls - well within the margin of error, and statistically tied.
Assuming both Obama and McCain take their *must-win* toss up states, these states will decide the election.
Or he'll be back in the lead today.
Posting Permissions