Don't believe the Forehead of Doom. :lol:
I thought this was interesting - the answers are longer than what i've quoted. I think this was expected by a number of people, and it'll be interesting to see how it pans out. Although a major upgrade to the console half way through its life span will, no doubt, piss a lot of people off. Apols if this has already been posted, it's hard to keep track of all the news at the moment.Yesterday Sony unveiled the PS3, and at least on paper it seems to outclass the Xbox 360 in terms of teraflops and support for 1080p, and it’s going to have a next-generation optical drive which the 360 isn’t going to have—
No… we just haven’t announced anything yet. Sony may have announced a non-standard drive last night. We just haven’t announced anything.
There are going to be some more surprises on the hardware end?
Could be! Look, for us to say we’re going to go through a whole generation without an HD capacity drive—I think that would be naive to assume that we’ll be sitting here at the end of the Xbox 360 generation and no such device will have shipped...
So there’s a possibility of an Xbox 360 Mark II coming along?
I won’t hypothesize on how we get there. I just think it’s just wrong-minded to think that somehow we’d go a whole generation without this. We’re not going to be sitting here five years saying, “Oh jeez, we don’t have HD DVD-type storage.” But we’re going to out perform Sony in a lot of things...
Have a look: The Engadget & Joystiq Interview
Don't believe the Forehead of Doom. :lol:
I liked Ballmer better when he was channelling Terry Bradshaw in that E3 video skit.
You know, just recently the talks between the HD-DVD standard and the Bluray standard broke down. I think it is possible that Microsoft may have been waiting to see how this turns out, because they probably didn't want to pay Sony a licensing fee to have a universal HD standard. So now perhaps the Xbox 360 will pick up the HD-DVD standard. Especially since they are now triple-layer and can hold 45gig.
Just a thought...
The way Balmer is talking this HD-DVD thing could turn out to be a nightmare.
He admits that it won't be in the shipping version but could be added down the road. That makes it an add-on which typically is adopted by only a small fraction of the market. That's fine if its only purpose is to play HD movies.
But *then* he mentions how publishers are already telling him that they need more storage space than they can get with a traditional DVD which is why MS will introduce whatever HD-DVD format. No way does that fly- the user base will be split all but assuring minimal HD-DVD format in games.
Publishers saying they need more than DVD are bullshitting. There have been probably less than ten console games released that even use the second layer of DVD as is. Most games are less than 3GB. World of Warcraft is just 4.5GB. The increased size of next-gen textures won't be prohibitively large.
I think Microsoft should be putting next-gen optical into the 360, but honestly if they did it would be 99% for movies.
Again I ask is the next gen DVD format written in stone or is Sony trying to push out the competing format by telling everyone Blu-Ray is in the PS3 so they win?
It still looks to me like there's a gap between HD-DVD (Toshiba) and Blu-Ray (Sony) so why would any console maker (or DVD maker for that matter) commit to one or the other and wind up having a bunch of betamaxes on their hands?
It's not set in stone.
People keep talking about games being an average of 3gb for the current generation. That's true, most are ~ 3GB, with some ~4.5 and even a couple of dual DVD discs. Though I know none that surpass DVD DL, the dual discs are all single layer I believe.
However we are talking some seriously increased texture resolution for the next generation. While codecs like VC-1 and h.264 AVC are seriously improved over plain jane mpg2 HD movie files are still pretty big. I think quite a few developers are going to hit the 8.5GB DL, but I don't think it's going to be a major limitation like the N64's cartridges, more of an annoyance.
Oh, and the Kameo demo? 6.2GB according to the dashboard running on the devkit. Who knows if that's an accurate depiction of the end result but I thought it was interesting.
It doesn't matter what a console maker commits to as long as the format supports the console. Yeah, it'd be nice if the PS3 played all HD DVD movies, but it's not necessary. It's still a game console anyway, after all, and you can always buy a seperate HD DVD player for whatever format wins. That's ancillary sales bait, not the primary purpose of the console. (No matter how they try to market it otherwise.)Originally Posted by Rorschach
I would expect that, eventually, anyone who cares enough to go out and get a HD DVD player and hook it up is going to be enough of a gearhead (at least toward the beginning of the cycle where it matters; maybe toward the end the PSThree will have dual format capability for reading HD DVD or somesuch) to want to do so eventually anyway. I know I used my PS2's DVD capabilities as justification, watched movies on it for about 2 months or so before becoming frustrated, and then went on to buy a 5 disc DVD changer because it was just annoying to have to use the PS2 for movies all the time. I doubt I'm that unique (well, other people buy single disc players, but my CD player was dying too).
45GB would be great. Sony would still boast its 54GB, but at least Microsoft would be closer. In any case, I'd bet on HD-DVD taking off. Sony is infamous for solid formats that never take off.Originally Posted by Kevin J Baird
I think not pushing for HD-DVD on the X-Box was an utterly boneheaded decision on the part of those companies that are supporting the format (and Microsoft as well).
Now we're going to have a situation where there are millions of Bluray machines in American homes, and virtually no HD-DVD machines.
Don't get me wrong though, I still think Bluray is going to wind up in the same boat as Betamax. It just boggles the mind that they would let this happen so nonchalantly.
Every Xbox disc is burned as two layers, and PS2 games can use dual-layer capability. (It's a major hassle to do so on the PS2 for various reasons, less so on the Xbox.)Originally Posted by Gendal
What may wind up happening is that if developers want to squeeze onto one disc, there will be less asset redundancy or fast-asset-load archives in a game. A lot of games use this to speed load times, so the actual amount of unique data in a game may be much less than you think.Originally Posted by Gendal
And I wouldn't read too much into the Kameo dashboard size, either...it's probably just a directory copy off of a developer's machine.
Ballmer will say just about anything. Sure, it's possible that MS might decide to swap out their DVD drive for the 360, but it's not likely. I wouldn't be shocked, but I'm not putting money on it. They've already got dev machines out there, they've probably already got manufacturing lined up, it's not like they can just change order numbers or anything.
I mean, "No… we just haven’t announced anything yet. Sony may have announced a non-standard drive last night. We just haven’t announced anything."
You know what we call that from where I'm from? Bullcrap. MS has been announcing things left and right. They've released their specs. It's not like they've planned to us HD-DVD all the time and just forgot to mention it. Sony hasn't announced a "non-standard drive", there is no standard for next generation. That's like saying the 360 is using a "non-standard" graphics chip.
I think Ballmer has lived in FUD for so long that it's the only way he knows how to communicate anymore. Blu-Ray is technically superior to HD-DVD in some ways, but none of that really matters. It's up to the industry to decide how to handle it.
And if BD doesn't take off? Who cares? DVD playback was never a huge seller for consoles except at the very, very beginning and HD-DVD playback won't matter much either. The real stupidity here is Microsoft not just picking one or the other. If they want to embrace Hi-Def, they should have embraced a HD format as well.
That says it right there. They would be Friggin retarded to use HDDVD or Blu ray right now. First there is no real MFG process set up for either of these discs and second there is no standard. These dipshits cant make up their mind which they want to use.there is no standard
Sure sony has Blu ray but duh they are the major backer of it and it would be retarded not to use it.
Making a game system with a Drive in which there are no discs available for it is pretty damn retarded and expensive. Call me when there is a standard and not another beta vs. VHS v2.0
Well, except that if you want to display hi-def content, you need a storage medium to compensate for that. It's kinda like announcing that you think Dolby 5.1 is really important and then releasing a tape drive.
So if Microsoft wanted to release early, they needed to bite the bullet and choose one. I agree totally about mfg'ing and standards and the such ... but they can't have their cake and eat it too. Either pick something or wait for a standard.
Which is why I think there's about a 50% chance that a month before the 360 is released ... they'll have picked one. I don't think Ballmer is exactly lying here, he's just using a nonsense way to put it. "Oh us? We haven't really said what we're using." Oh whatever.
I just think its a very rough time for either format to try to take hold. I mean I would say I read at least once a week about a change to blu ray or HDDVD and the supporters and everything. Hell in the last what 4 months HDDVD when from 25gb a disc to 45gb a disc. Thats friggin huge and thats just in the last 4 months.Well, except that if you want to display hi-def content, you need a storage medium to compensate for that. It's kinda like announcing that you think Dolby 5.1 is really important and then releasing a tape drive.
I just think it would be dumb of them to try to put support in either format esp when there are no discs and no players currently on the market ( I think that there is a blu ray one on the market overseas but its like 8trillion yen or some insane ammount).
I can say that when the PS2 came out DVD players had just started to gain a foot hold in the market so it was really no big deal for them to actually have a dvd player in the unit.
As it is right now though there are no HDDVD movies out nor Blu Ray movies out ( might be over seas I cant say for sure ). So going with one or the other is a very very hard call.
If they pick wrong and go with the one that loses their cost per disc to make the high capacity discs goes up quite a large ammount if only a select few MFGs are making them. It really is a sit back and wait deal here and I am going to say that they are going to stick with the normal DVD player thats in it right now because even in 3-4 months we still wont have a standard that we could work with.
Well No, HD-DVD is backwards compatible with DVD. So developers could continue to make games on DVD discs, saving money, but if they needed the space, they could produce a HD-DVD disc. That's one of HD-DVD's big advantages over Bluray. Bluray is not backwards compatible. So you are stuck making a game on Sony's proprietary format or nothing.
Actually, very little about the technology is changing except tricks about layering. Which sounds like impressive leaps, but doesn't amount to much in terms of hardware, etc.
And it's not like a console hasn't supported non-standard mediums before. In fact, they nearly all do in their own way (for copy protection).
And well, this will sound odd - but Microsoft could probably just end this format war if they announced the 360 would use Blu-Ray. Warner and Universal would be nuts not to support the same format as the two leading consoles. Especially with all the hype those machines would get.
As it stands, if the industry does split the format, what you'll get is neither console supporting a "standard" and a bunch of HiDef player manufacturers making a killing because players will need to support two formats. The difference between this and the VHS wars is that specific studios are lining up. If they stick to their guns, consumers won't be choosing between formats - they'll be choosing between movie titles. Blu-Ray may be faster and hold more info ... but consumers don't really give a damn. They just want to watch Girls Gone Wild or whatever.
So if Microsoft either takes a pass or supports HD-DVD, and Sony supports Blu-Ray, and the studios diverge ... then neither console will have a leg up when it comes to watching movies. But if MS supported Blu-Ray, then it could force the studios to follow and both consoles would be suitable players (and be better equipped for HDTV)
The Blu-Ray laser pickup isn't backwards compatible, but Blu-Ray drives can be made with both pickups and be backwards compatible.Originally Posted by Kevin J Baird
Blu-Ray is backwards compatible:Originally Posted by Kevin J Baird
" Yes, several leading consumer electronics companies (including Sony, Panasonic, Philips, Samsung and LG) have already demonstrated products that can read/write CDs, DVDs and Blu-ray Discs using a BD/DVD/CD compatible optical head, so you don't have to worry about your existing DVD collection becoming obsolete. Although it's up to each manufacturer to decide if they want to make their products backwards compatible with DVD, the format is far too popular to not be supported. The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) expects every Blu-ray Disc device to be backward compatible with CDs and DVDs."
The PS3 supports DVD as well.
As for it being proprietary, we're not talking about UMD's here. BD is supported by Apple and several movie studios as well. It's no more proprietary than HD-DVD is.
Oh, and HD-DVD is the standard as it was approved by the DVD Forum. That doesn't mean it has it locked in stone, but they do have 85 movies coming out, while Bluray has none.
Columbia Tri-Star (Sony owned)
MGM (Sony owned)
Disney (Could release on both formats.)
20th Century Fox
Well, Sony's backwards compatibility means that they have a funky laser/optics drive that can switch on the fly depending on media (Like a DVD-ROM/CD-ROM) but HD-DVD backwards compatibility means that manufacturer's making movies can release one format. HD-DVD, and the disc will play in HD in HD-DVD players, or normal on standard DVD players. So movie companies only have to release one disc format, not two.
Full list of the BD Forum:
Apple Computer, Inc.
Hewlett Packard Company
LG Electronics Inc.
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
Royal Philips Electronics
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Twentieth Century Fox
Walt Disney Pictures
It's not just Sony and their lackeys.
And the HD-DVD format was approved ... it wasn't stamped as a standard. The analogy here is akin to DVD +/-/*/% R+W | EMC2 that now complicates every DVD burner you've got. This has been something of a pickle since DVD players began, so let's be honest ... the DVD forum is a bit of a joke.
As for movies being released, I'm not sure where you found the "85 to 0" number, but something tells me Fox and Disney plan to release movies in the future, yes?
The short of it is this - the only people likely to lose out if there isn't a standard are the consoles. It will diminish their ability to serve as a high density player if they don't support all the movies that are out there. If they don't consumers will just end up getting a HD|BD-DVD player and just not really care. Unlike VHS and Beta, the hardware can compensate for the industry's nuttiness. Course god knows what such a player will cost, so the consumer still gets bit here.
But that's useless for your example of game development. You can't develop content for a game thinking that "maybe" someone will read it. Your example was that developers could choose between DVD or HD-DVD formats, and they'd have the same choices.Originally Posted by Kevin J Baird
It's nice for the movie industry while waiting for people to transition, sure, but it's honestly not a huge improvement over just have two discs. Or even double siding one disc.
Yea, well when HP and Sharp release a film I'll be sure to buy you a copy.
But seriously, the 85 movies were announced at this year's CES with a complete list. (Here's a forum post I quickly Googled of the list. I'm sure if you want to put some effort into it you can find more official references. http://www.movie-list.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10918 ) AFAIK the Blu-Ray folks have no such list yet. For a movie studio, it's a no brainer. If you release on HD-DVD it will sell to DVD owners and give HD owners a choice to upgrade. But if you release on Blu-ray you are taking a risk because maybe nobody will buy it.
Plus, many people will buy HD-DVD so they can watch it on what they have now, and upgrade their home entertainment system later.
What we need is one of those funky optical drives to read both formats.
What'm I missing here? Until they're manufacturing release hardware (which given that devs don't have this hardware yet, I find unlikely), they don't have to choose anything. Make a generic loader library, the first devs figure out how to fit a game within a normal DVD, pop in the appropriate HD drive du jour when you finally have to make a decision, get some code monkey to tweak up the generic HD DVD playback routines into the BIOS (or, fuck, patch it in later via the free live/memory cards from a friend), bingo! You have a HD DVD console without having to worry about announcing the wrong standard in may.Originally Posted by RegularX
Unless there's something odd about the proposed mechanisms (i.e. they can't read older DVDs, they take 7x the power, etc..), this is entirely feasible.
My example was to point out that if Microsoft puts an HD-DVD device in the Xbox 360, that developers could continue to develop on the DVD format with no fear of it not being supported by the platform. You can't do this with the PS3, because the format is Blu-Ray. Yes, you can read DVD video, but the games are on Blu-Ray as per Sony. They could change their mind though, they don't have anything yet but hollow plastic.
And it is a huge cost savings for the manufacturing companies to release one disc. Not two discs, not double sided. Will they save more than $1? I dunno, but when you sell 5 million copies of a movie, $1 can add up.
It's completely technically possible. It's just not exactly the flip of a switch. And they're undercutting their early development by not finalizing a medium.Originally Posted by mouselock
Like I said, I'd guess about a 50% chance. And they'll probably pick HD-DVD since they already have the codecs and to annoy Sony.
I'm just saying if they had chosen BD now, they'd be better off and the consumer would probably be better off too.
And why can't game code be carried on the DVD? I haven't read anything which enforces that games must be on BD, just that Sony is planning on releasing them on BD.Originally Posted by kevin
And actually more to the point - why wouldn't they? It's not like any of them would choose to stick to DVD if they wanted to use up the room, and most of them well. Cost is no different than making a game for the current consoles, you still have to work with specific mediums.
Shrug. If you really think so. Most of the cost would be on the back end, producing two seperate versions of a film. DVD style mediums are cheap in terms of manufacturing, so I don't see why it would matter.Originally Posted by kevin
I just don't buy that. You're saying early development is going to be stymied because they only have 8.5 GB of data storage to use? I can see games needing more, but first gen games probably won't need more than double what they had last gen. And it wouldn't matter for 2nd+ gen games under that plan.Originally Posted by RegularX