Israel's attacks Syria: preemptive strike or retalliation ?

[bmulligan]

I know we've been down this road too many times. But this time we really are caught between a rock(our principles) and a hard place(Isreal).

from the NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/06/international/middleeast/06DIPL.html?th

Israel said the airstrike was on a training site used by Islamic Jihad, the Palestinian group that claimed responsibility for the attack in Haifa on Saturday. Still, a senior Bush administration official said the evidence that the target was in fact such a base remained "very amorphous."

President Bush's own aggressive stance against terrorism leaves little room for the administration to criticize actions taken by others. Having laid out an American doctrine claiming the right to carry out pre-emptive attacks against terrorist targets, the administration has consistently said that it recognized Israel's own right to retaliate for terrorist attacks.



If you're not with us, you're against us. That's what he said. Now we can't fault Israel for it's actions, but we can't condone either. We can only undermine their ability by playing stupid. Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil may get you brownie points in the middle east, the UN and the media, but they still manufacture hate and jihad against us regardless of how tight we hold reigns on Israel.

Haven't our enemies (Saddam, Osama) already stated that most of their hatred is because of the presence of Israel, our support for them, and the palestinian 'occupation'? It appears to me that this terrorism problem is being skirted and patched just like every other government action: Treat the symptoms and ignore the sickness.

Isreal laid out the doctrine of preemptive strikes long ago and are the only ones(besides the arabs) that remain consistent while we blow with the wind. After making us look strong by holding the Iraqi leader to his promises, we are appear soft on Saudi Arabia and Syria. The arabs might be right about us, we will retreat when enough pressure is applied, or when we get tired, or when we lose resolve. If Bush is truly a good leader, he will have to make some 'tough decisions' before the next election instead of playing pussyfoot and covering his eyes ears and mouth like the three monkeys.

There will never be peace in the middle east until there is a victory by one side or the other. Or until someone has the courage to say enough is enough and force a settlement. Only the leader of the most powerful nation in the world has the ability and the power to do this. Obviously the 'congress' of nations, the UN, is powerless to do anything about it so our leader must set the standards, plot the course, and set sail for the promised land.

But if the planning for the Iraq situation is a model for the administrations effectiveness, perhaps we don't have the necessary leadership to accomplish this onerous task. Perhaps golf and poetry are more important than life and legacy.

[Toddy]

As long as the Arab-Israelis keep cranking out babies at double the pace of the Israeli Jews, none of this matters. Israel's actually going to kill itself if it doesn't get some kind of two-state system set up soon, as within about two decades the Arabs will be close to being the majority in the region. Unless there are dramatic changes in birth rates, Israel is going to have to choose between "democracy" and "Jewish state" in the very near future. Judging by recent moves of the Sharon government, I get the feeling that a lot of people would prefer to dump democracy.

[Daniel Morris]

Now we can't fault Israel for it's actions...

1. What's most interesting in the aftermath of the airstrike is the lack of condemnation from some major diplomatic players. The Russian ambassador to the UN went so far as to say that Syria's request for a UN condemnation would stand a better chance "if it were more balanced" -- diplomatic code for "Give us a break: PIJ and PFLP are your boys, so don't cry to us about them bringing their troubles home to you."

2. It's also a bit cynical for the UN to undergo emergency condemnation meetings after Israeli strikes on PIJ/PFLP camps, but not to do so after PIJ/PFLP-claimed bombings inside Israel. As best I can determine, no deaths or injuries have been reported in the strike on the Syrian target -- there are 19 dead in Haifa.

Haven't our enemies (Saddam, Osama) already stated that most of their hatred is because of the presence of Israel, our support for them, and the palestinian 'occupation'?

3. Actually, no -- Osama barely mentioned the Palestinian issue until after 9/11, when he sniffed out a winning cause and began thumping it in every audiotape. Prior to that, it's actually quite difficult to find any al-Qaeda mentionings of Israel or Palestine. Osama's concern has always been his native Saudi Arabia.

[Kalle]

2. It's also a bit cynical for the UN to undergo emergency condemnation meetings after Israeli strikes on PIJ/PFLP camps, but not to do so after PIJ/PFLP-claimed bombings inside Israel. As best I can determine, no deaths or injuries have been reported in the strike on the Syrian target -- there are 19 dead in Haifa.


WTF are you talking about, whatever comparison you're trying to draw is ridiculous. When a nation state unexpectedly attacks another nation state, that's something the UN calls emergency meetings over. When domestic terrorists strike yet another target in any country in the world, the UN does not generally need to call emergency meetings because of it, whatever needs to be talked about generally is already being talked about.

[Daniel Morris]

When a nation state unexpectedly attacks another nation state...

At the risk of stating the tiresomely well-documented, Syria harbors both the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, both of which have claimed joint responsibility for the Haifa bombing.

http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/usandun/03043001.htm

The Syrian Government has continued to provide political and limited material support to a number of Palestinian groups, including allowing them to maintain headquarters or offices in Damascus. Some of these groups have committed terrorist acts, but the Syrian government insists that their Damascus offices undertake only political and informational activities. The most notable Palestinian rejectionist groups in Syria are the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS). Syria also continued to permit Iranian resupply, via Damascus, of Hizballah in Lebanon.

Question for you, Kalle -- how long is a nation to be expected to tolerate attack by terrorist proxy before holding the state sponsor of that terrorism to account? By your rationale, the US "unexpectedly attack(ed) another nation state" when it responded to 9/11 by taking on the Taliban regime of Afghanistan.

[Dirt]

[quote]
Question for you, Kalle -- how long is a nation to be expected to tolerate attack by terrorist proxy before holding the state sponsor of that terrorism to account? By your rationale, the US "unexpectedly attack(ed) another nation state" when it responded to 9/11 by taking on the Taliban regime of Afghanistan.

How long you think before we should attack Saudi Arabia?

[Kalle]

Did Israel announce this plan in advance? No. The act may or may not have been justified, but it was certainly a bombshell, so to speak, for the leaders of the world. Continued Palestinian terrorism, however, is not.

[bmulligan]

Give me a break, please. Do palestinian bombers announce their targets before striking? Not if they want to be successfull

[Midnight Son]

mulligan, give me a break with what our "great leader" must do. He already thinks he's doing "God's Work" by taking out all the middle east countries who won't bend over for us.

[bmulligan]

Yeah, sorry, that's not enough. What's he done for me lately?

Somebody has to take a stand with the isreal thing. Somebody has to do something instead of wait and see, wait and see, on the road, off the road, on again.......nope, off again, more attacks, off again. Where's that fucking map again?

[Midnight Son]

Look, be realistic. Our major interest in the Middle East is the oil. As long as we get all we need, and we can prevent the terrorists from killing us, we're somewhat happy and don't give a damn what happens. These folks have been killing each other for thousands of years. It would be nice if they would stop but that ain't realpolitik.

[Gav]

Did Israel announce this plan in advance? No. The act may or may not have been justified, but it was certainly a bombshell, so to speak, for the leaders of the world. Continued Palestinian terrorism, however, is not.
Sharon said he would do something like this about a year ago. I'm not sure it was widely reported outside of Israel (I was in Israel at the time), but he told Assad that if there were more attacks from terrorists supported by Syria, the bombs would start to fall on Damascus.

To be honest, I thought at the time that it was bombast, especially as he didn't follow up for a long time. He may have made other threats in the meantime that weren't reported either.

I'm still not sure what to think about the whole thing, although I have to admit that there's a part of me that's very pleased about it. Assuming it was really a terrorist training camp, Israel's taken out a bunch of terrorists without harming any civilians.

Gav

[Toddy]

If it was a training camp, more power to 'em. But that seems pretty unlikely. I mean, the woman who killed 19 people on the weekend certainly wasn't spirited away to Syria for a suicide-bomber-training weekend. No suicide bombers are trained, as they really don't need to do anything other than try to get into a crowded area and press a button. This site might have been a storehouse for explosives destined for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, of course, although Israel is specifically describing it as a training center. So, who did it train? Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders? In what? They seem to be more political and organizational figures than anything else, and they wouldn't need a secret base to be trained in those duties.

Personally, I think the bombing's a desperate act by a government that really has no ideas how to deal with these attacks. It certainly isn't going to stop Palestinians from lining up to die. Also, it's a great way to make sure that the Iranians plow ahead full steam on their nuclear weapons program. And a good reason for Syria to get in on the act and get on the hotline to Teheran or Pyongyang. All this does is destabilize the region even more.

[XPav]

I see it as a "shit, we can't stop it, lets threaten Syria with bombs, maybe they can stop it." idea.

[Jason McCullough]

It isn't going to stop training, of course; it probably costs $10 to build one of those camps. All I can think of is that its a warning to Syria.

[Ben]

Suicide bombers aren't given job-training as such, but IIRC they generally do attend camps for indoctrination purposes. At the least, the people who tell bombers to bomb and give them the bombs attend camps to learn how to convince people that blowing themselves up is a good idea.

[Gav]

The guys who plan the attacks get training. It might seem simple to strap a bunch of explosives and waltz across the border to find a good spot to blow yourself up, but it's not. Also, the attacks (especially the non-suicide ones) have been getting more sophisticated, which does indicate some passing down of knowledge.

Jason, I think you're right that it's more of a warning to Syria to stay out of Israeli affairs than an attempt to deal with the terrorism problem. Syria has been waging war by proxy for over a decade, and I guess Sharon just wanted to make it explicit.

I'm still on the fence about this. On the one hand, it's not very helpful in dealing with Israel's major problem, the Palestinians--I think Sharon could have been much more effective by dismantling some settlements than by attacking Syria. OTOH, Syria's had a free ride to derail the peace process, and has had the benefits of a war with Israel (whatever they might be) without any consequences, and it'd be nice to see them stop or at least pay a price.

Gav

[Kalle]

Give me a break, please. Do palestinian bombers announce their targets before striking? Not if they want to be successfull

No, but you can still hardly call the attacks unexpected. If there had been no bombings in Israel for years, then yes, the situations might be comparable, but as it is there's been what, at least a bombing a month?

[bmulligan]

No, but you can still hardly call the attacks unexpected. If there had been no bombings in Israel for years, then yes, the situations might be comparable, but as it is there's been what, at least a bombing a month?

the ridiculousness of the above statement isn't deserving of an answer.

[Anders Hallin]

No, but you can still hardly call the attacks unexpected. If there had been no bombings in Israel for years, then yes, the situations might be comparable, but as it is there's been what, at least a bombing a month?
the ridiculousness of the above statement isn't deserving of an answer.
I won't venture to be able to answer for Kalle, but since this is about international diplomatic response to events, there is a difference, quite aside from all talk of morality and justice.

[Kalle]

I won't venture to be able to answer for Kalle....

But you do it so well. :)

[Daniel Morris]

...the woman who killed 19 people on the weekend certainly wasn't spirited away to Syria for a suicide-bomber-training weekend.

Do you mean to suggest that organized terror groups are neither organized nor groups, but actually an unaffiliated movement of solo acts who supply themselves with explosives?

PIJ has claimed responsibility for the Haifa explosion. PIJ is a tightly organized group which supplies explosives (and training) to willing suicide bombers, who are themselves "handled" by operational planners on the ground in the occupied territories.

No suicide bombers are trained...

This statement is laughable. Suicide bombers are not only trained, they are actively recruited, indoctrinated, equipped, and handled from induction to execution by operational planners.

Also, it's a great way to make sure that the Iranians plow ahead full steam on their nuclear weapons program.

Hilariously, we return to the argument that an aggressive enemy's intent to nuclearize itself demands that we back off and leave that aggressor alone to nuclearize itself.

I eagerly await Brett Todd's post in the aftermath of an Osirak-style Israeli strike against Iran's budding nuclear capability: "This will only force Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear weapons!"

[Toddy]

For starters, how the hell can you think that I suggested terror groups aren't organized when I say that the most recent female suicide bomber "wasn't spirited away tp Syria for a suicide-bomber-training weekend"? I was clearly talking about this Syrian camp, which you've got to know. So I can only assume you're trolling for a reply here. Well, you've got one. Enjoy!

Show me one piece of evidence that Palestinian suicide bombers are trained outside of the territories. Show me one piece of evidence that the leadership is trained outside of the territories. Everything that I have ever read clearly shows that Palestinian terror groups are self-sufficient, aside from getting some raw materials from places like the Sinai. Have you not been paying attention to the Israeli attacks? Every one of these strikes in Gaza and the West Bank has been launched either at a leader's car or house, or a so-called weapons factory. Yet now suddenly the Palestinians need bases in Syria?

And as for the latest suicide bombing, get real. This woman was just finishing up her studies for the bar and had worked very hard over the last few years. According to the BBC, she only got radical and seriously religious after her brother and another close relation were killed by the IDF a few months back. All you need to do to become a suicide bomber in the territories is contact the right people, come off stable enough to bluff your way into a restaurant or public gathering place, and have a willingness to die and take innocents with you.

I mean, sheesh, the very reason that suicide bombing is such a problem is because it requires damn near nothing in training and equipment. You think if the Palestinians were running a Suicide School for Girls anywhere in the Middle East, that was supplying a pipeline of bombers into Israel, the Israelis wouldn't have taken it out a long time ago? You can't tell me that Sharon wouldn't have ordered a strike into another country a long time ago, if he'd discovered evidence of some training camp. All this "We've held off long enough" stuff is ridiculous. Israel's been on the offensive for three years now (and boy, has that tactic ever been a roaring success!).

Oh, and there's no way that Israel would attack Iran. That would bring about a response of some kind, as Iran isn't nearly as toothless as Syria. There's no guarantee that Israel would be able to completely take out the Iranian program, either, which is apparently quite far along. At the very least, Israel wouldn't be able to get all of the radioactive materials, making it possible that Iran would try and get a dirty bomb or three into Tel Aviv. And, of course, Iran's connections with Pakistan and North Korea have to be considered. A lot of this technology is undoubtedly imported, so if you blow up one nuke facility, there's no reason the Iranians wouldn't be able to build another with freshly purchased materials.

[Toddy]

And, Dan, your last point is truly nutso. You're actually saying that Israel going on the offensive won't prompt its neighbors to develop a nuclear deterrent? All this "We'll defend ourselves wherever we want" rhetoric will do is encourage the entire region to go nuclear, to ensure that Israel can't just send in the F-16s at will. I'm sure there are elements in Pakistan who are fervently working to make sure that the entire Islamic world is given nuclear technology.

[Gav]

Brett,

I've read in a number of places that Palestinian terror groups started adopting Hizbollah tactics, showing some level of contact between the two. It's also not a secret that Syria has used Hizbollah as its proxy in a war against Israel, and sponsors Palestinian terror groups as well. Israel hasn't launched attacks against Syria for all sorts of reasons, but not being sure that there were training camps in Syria has never been one of them.

Also, you're forgetting that not every attack on Israelis is a suicide bombing--there are attacks on settlements, on military targets, and so on, that do take a fair amount of planning. If all it took was a person deciding to strap on some bombs and walk into a restaurant, why would the Palestinian groups need any organization at all? Leave aside Hamas, which does lots of stuff, like hospitals and schools, why should PFLP or IJ exist?

Gav

[Toddy]

I'm not forgetting those things, Gav, but nearly every one of those non-suicide attacks is obviously an off-the-cuff sort of thing where a couple of guys grab their AKs and try to find holes in the security perimeters. You see the odd calculated ambush of Israeli troops, which obviously required some coordination. Though most of the attacks you cite are like mass murders, where somebody just gets into a settlement and shoots until he gets gunned down. I hardly think the the Palestinians need a lot of outside organization and support to coordinate attacks like this, or to train the people who carry them out. I mean, what usually happens? Some nut breaks into a settlement, kills a mother and child, and gets gunned down. What sort of training do you need to do that? Conversely, if these lunatics were being given military training in, say, Syrian bases, you'd think that their attacks would inflict more casualties, and that they'd get away at least part of the time.

But please note that I'm not saying these groups aren't well organized in the territories, and that some training doesn't go on there. I just think that the level of organization there pales in comparison to groups operating under the al Qaeda umbrella, as those organizations seem to regularly pull off some pretty horrific, massive strikes, like the JI one that killed the 200 Aussies last year, and the more recent assault on the Western worker compound in Saudi Arabia. Palestinian action in the territories and in Israel, as awful as they are, are a completely different animal from those well-planned and coordinated quasi-military attacks.

BTW, I'm not surprised that Hezbollah is in contact with the other groups, though I haven't read anything about direct assistance in the territories. Where did you see this? If this is stepping up, then it explains the Syrian strike. Well, at least somewhat -- the main supporter of Hezbollah is Iran, and Israel doesn't want to go there, unless the situation gets a lot worse.

[Gav]

I'm not forgetting those things, Gav, but nearly every one of those non-suicide attacks is obviously an off-the-cuff sort of thing where a couple of guys grab their AKs and try to find holes in the security perimeters.

It's hard to know, I guess. I've been out to a couple of settlements for one reason and another, and I really think it's not that easy to just break into most of them. But YMMV.

I mean, what usually happens? Some nut breaks into a settlement, kills a mother and child, and gets gunned down. What sort of training do you need to do that? Conversely, if these lunatics were being given military training in, say, Syrian bases, you'd think that their attacks would inflict more casualties, and that they'd get away at least part of the time.

The guys doing the breaking-in (just like the suicide bombers) probably get just about no training--they're cannon fodder. It's the guys who make the explosives, who figure out the routes to take and the targets who (presumably) get the training. One guy like Yihye Ayash was probably responsible for more deaths than any single suicide bomber.

But please note that I'm not saying these groups aren't well organized in the territories, and that some training doesn't go on there. I just think that the level of organization there pales in comparison to groups operating under the al Qaeda umbrella, as those organizations seem to regularly pull off some pretty horrific, massive strikes, like the JI one that killed the 200 Aussies last year, and the more recent assault on the Western worker compound in Saudi Arabia. Palestinian action in the territories and in Israel, as awful as they are, are a completely different animal from those well-planned and coordinated quasi-military attacks.

I sort of agree, but I'm not sure if we can isolate the cause down to a lack of organization. Israel is probably harder to hit with an organized attack than some other countries--there's a greater chance of one part of the attack getting caught. (Even so, there was one (can't remember the date, sorry) where they tried to blow up an oil truck, which would've killed > 200 people; the attackers screwed up at the last minute, so it didn't detonate, but they weren't actually caught)

BTW, I'm not surprised that Hezbollah is in contact with the other groups, though I haven't read anything about direct assistance in the territories. Where did you see this? If this is stepping up, then it explains the Syrian strike. Well, at least somewhat -- the main supporter of Hezbollah is Iran, and Israel doesn't want to go there, unless the situation gets a lot worse.
It's fairly old news--I remember reading about it fairly shortly after Israel withdrew from Lebanon. In & of itself, it doesn't explain the attack into Syria at this particular time instead of some other time within the past year, though. Agreed on Iran.

Although it was always assumed in the Israeli papers that Hizbullah took their marching orders from Syria, not Iran, but I don't know why people made that assumption, and I certainly have no idea of its truth, or if it's always been a convenient fiction, sicne Israel's certainly not ready to have a war with Iran.

Gav

[Jason Becker]

"Everything that I have ever read clearly shows that Palestinian terror groups are self-sufficient, aside from getting some raw materials from places like the Sinai. Have you not been paying attention to the Israeli attacks?"


That doesn't mean they arn't getting trained outside of the territories. Israel may just not have thought it politically worth it to strike somewhere in another country. Thats a big escalation if they start to regularly strike in other countries like Syria and Jordan.


It does looks like Israel needs to get better intelligence since whiles it looks like the camp was run by militants its been abandoned for several years now.

[playingwithknives]

Forget about what the camp was or used for, its likely it was long abandoned, and all sides were aware of this.

Its a message, pure and simple. The Israeli's play the Arabs at their own game, and speak in a language they understand, its how they keep ahead.

The Russians realised this too, why they had no problem during the period when modern fundamentalist terrorism was born, when they first started taking western hostages they also took a couple of russians. The russian intelligence teams then kidnapped a terrorist leader and returned him in various parcels to the hostage takers, resulting in the release of the hostages. The Russians were then fairly problem free up until recent times and the breakup of the Soviet Union.

[Lizard_King]

Besides, nothing Isreal has done in the last half century could begin to compare with Russia in Chechnya for the last decade alone. Not that that alone would stop them, of course...

[Kyle Wilson]

The Russians were then fairly problem free up until recent times and the breakup of the Soviet Union.

The Russians are playing the same game in Chechnya now. It's not working out nearly so well for them.

[Lizard_King]

The Russians were then fairly problem free up until recent times and the breakup of the Soviet Union.

The Russians are playing the same game in Chechnya now. It's not working out nearly so well for them.

It's not the same game at all. Now, if Israel razed Damascus to the ground, they would be approaching the same level. Until then, they are similar but VERY different in substance.

[Kalle]

The Russian KGB-in-Lebanon stories of scaring terrorists only worked because the Russians were not primary targets there. The Israeli proxies in Lebanon did as much and worse, but that did not help them against a determined opposition. Russia in Chechnya is a case in point, the Russian military has been at it's most brutal there but, lo and behold, terroizing terrorists into submission doesn't work when the terrorists are after your hide.

[Lizard_King]

The Russian KGB-in-Lebanon stories of scaring terrorists only worked because the Russians were not primary targets there. The Israeli proxies in Lebanon did as much and worse, but that did not help them against a determined opposition. Russia in Chechnya is a case in point, the Russian military has been at it's most brutal there but, lo and behold, terroizing terrorists into submission doesn't work when the terrorists are after your hide.

Fear and brutality alone is not enough. LBJ showed that up quite nicely in the latter years of Vietnam.
Also, I do think the stakes were a little different for the "Israeli proxies" you cite...it is not like a very pleasant fate awaited them if they backed down. Mind you, not a rationalization, but it is different from a fundamentally optional war like Chechnya.

[Kyle Wilson]

The Russians are playing the same game in Chechnya now. It's not working out nearly so well for them.

It's not the same game at all. Now, if Israel razed Damascus to the ground, they would be approaching the same level. Until then, they are similar but VERY different in substance.

Sorry, I meant that the Russians are trying the same hardball style of dealing with terrorists that they used in the eighties. I didn't intend any comparison with Israel.

[Lizard_King]

Then by all means continue. My apologies.

[marxeil]

As long as the Arab-Israelis keep cranking out babies at double the pace of the Israeli Jews, none of this matters. Israel's actually going to kill itself if it doesn't get some kind of two-state system set up soon, as within about two decades the Arabs will be close to being the majority in the region. Unless there are dramatic changes in birth rates, Israel is going to have to choose between "democracy" and "Jewish state" in the very near future. Judging by recent moves of the Sharon government, I get the feeling that a lot of people would prefer to dump democracy.

This problem will remain even when a two state solution is set up. I don't think many Israeli-Arabs will migrate to the new Palestinian state (actually palestinians try to achieve Israeli citizenship by marriage), and eventually the Israeli-Arab population will exceed the Israeli-Jewish population, making the Jews a minority again, but this time in our own land.

[Lizard_King]

This problem will remain even when a two state solution is set up. I don't think many Israeli-Arabs will migrate to the new Palestinian state (actually palestinians try to achieve Israeli citizenship by marriage), and eventually the Israeli-Arab population will exceed the Israeli-Jewish population, making the Jews a minority again, but this time in our own land.

It's an inevitable consequence of premising the basis of your state around irrational criteria for merit/belonging (ie being Jewish). Mind you, I completely understand why Israel was set up, but as you note the long term prospects are always going to be dim.

[marxeil]

This problem will remain even when a two state solution is set up. I don't think many Israeli-Arabs will migrate to the new Palestinian state (actually palestinians try to achieve Israeli citizenship by marriage), and eventually the Israeli-Arab population will exceed the Israeli-Jewish population, making the Jews a minority again, but this time in our own land.


It's an inevitable consequence of premising the basis of your state around irrational criteria for merit/belonging (ie being Jewish). Mind you, I completely understand why Israel was set up, but as you note the long term prospects are always going to be dim.

After the initial outrage, I am now feeling depressed.

[Toddy]

This problem will remain even when a two state solution is set up. I don't think many Israeli-Arabs will migrate to the new Palestinian state (actually palestinians try to achieve Israeli citizenship by marriage), and eventually the Israeli-Arab population will exceed the Israeli-Jewish population, making the Jews a minority again, but this time in our own land.

Yes, but that assumes some sort of population transfer/buyout isn't part of the final agreement. I think that it would be.

[marxeil]

This problem will remain even when a two state solution is set up. I don't think many Israeli-Arabs will migrate to the new Palestinian state (actually palestinians try to achieve Israeli citizenship by marriage), and eventually the Israeli-Arab population will exceed the Israeli-Jewish population, making the Jews a minority again, but this time in our own land.

Yes, but that assumes some sort of population transfer/buyout isn't part of the final agreement. I think that it would be.

If you mean that Israeli-Arabs will be transferred to live in the Palestinian state then I disagree. Although they consider themselfs second rate citizens here (and to be honest, in many ways they are right), and becoming antagonised over it, they are still way better off then their neigbours in the territories. Nobody in their right mind would choose to live there (except jewish settlers off course, but they are not in their right minds).

[Toddy]

I mean that they'll be offered finanical incentives to leave. And some will undoubtedly leave, many eagerly, if and when Palestine stabilizes. But I basically agree with your main point, that the Arabs are eventually going to become the majority in both states.

[Qenan]

Israel is doomed, and probably the middle east along with it.

[bmulligan]

the Arabs are eventually going to become the majority in both states.

won't matter if they're on the other side of the wall

[Jason McCullough]

I think nukes will get through walls.....

[marxeil]

I mean that they'll be offered finanical incentives to leave. And some will undoubtedly leave, many eagerly, if and when Palestine stabilizes. But I basically agree with your main point, that the Arabs are eventually going to become the majority in both states.

I am still not sure if you are right. We should ask an arab, but I guess there are none here.

[Gav]

If (and this is a big if) the Arabs can be brought into a more modern standard of living, I think the whole demographic problem goes away. It's pretty much well-known that people living in poverty have more kids than affluent folks. So, if Israel can move agressively to help its Arab citizens, their birth rates might go down to levels similar to Jewish levels.

Of course, the Haredim are still a ticking demographic time bomb, as well, and there's not much anyone can do about that, so Israel's probably doomed no matter what :-).

Gav

[Gav]

It's an inevitable consequence of premising the basis of your state around irrational criteria for merit/belonging (ie being Jewish). Mind you, I completely understand why Israel was set up, but as you note the long term prospects are always going to be dim.
If you understand why Israel was set up, how can you say that the criteria are irrational? People have been persecuted for being Jewish for a long time; is it so irrational to think that having our own state to provide a haven is a good thing?

Gav

[Daniel Morris]

If the "premise" of Israel is irrational, then so too are the premises of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lesotho, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, etc. etc.

[Lizard_King]

It's an inevitable consequence of premising the basis of your state around irrational criteria for merit/belonging (ie being Jewish). Mind you, I completely understand why Israel was set up, but as you note the long term prospects are always going to be dim.
If you understand why Israel was set up, how can you say that the criteria are irrational? People have been persecuted for being Jewish for a long time; is it so irrational to think that having our own state to provide a haven is a good thing?

Gav

There is a clear, understandable causality for Israel's creation; that does not make it a rational progression. Look, I'm not debating its legitimacy, or even talking about my high regard for the country and its people. My point is simply that basing a country around ethnicity/religion is an irrational idea, no matter where it's done, and ultimately dysfunctional if an aggressive effort is made to prolong it. You know, the same way that an employer who chose workers based on race would be considered irrational.

If the "premise" of Israel is irrational, then so too are the premises of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lesotho, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, etc. etc.
Is that a counterargument or an expansion of my point? Anyhow, the situation is exponentially worse in Israel than most of those because of its particular circumstances (ie being surrounded by people that loathe it). But, yes, the same applies to them. Diversity when permitted to flourish naturally is the future of the nation-state, broadly speaking.

Of course, in Israel's case they really are between a rock and a hard place. That doesn't make it less true, just difficult to find a solution for (I can't think of one).