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View Full Version : Interesting poll of Iraqis about the situation in Iraq



theblackw0lf
09-10-2003, 07:56 PM
The results of the Poll won't probably do much to sway people's perception one way or another, but it is an interesting look at what the Iraqi's are thinking right now. This was conducted by Zogby international through American Enterprise magazine. Here are the results.


Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle).


• Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32% say things will become much better.

• The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by 3 to 1, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq. There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than 2 to 1; but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People age 18-29 are much more rosy about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men.

• Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five--more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%. Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favorable toward the U.S., and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran's Islamist government; the U.S. is six times as popular with them as a model for governance.

• Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33% want an Islamic government; a solid 60% say no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating maniacs) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying no by 66% to 27%. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and they are split evenly on the question.

• Perhaps the strongest indication that an Islamic government won't be part of Iraq's future: The nation is thoroughly secularized. We asked how often our respondents had attended the Friday prayer over the previous month. Fully 43% said "never."

• 57% of Iraqis with an opinion have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden, with 41% of those saying it is a very unfavorable view. (Women are especially down on him.) Except in the Sunni triangle (where the limited support that exists for bin Laden is heavily concentrated), negative views of the al Qaeda supremo are actually quite lopsided in all parts of the country. And those opinions were collected before Iraqi police announced it was al Qaeda members who killed worshipers with a truck bomb in Najaf.

• . We asked "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74% to 18% that Saddam's henchmen should be punished.

None of this is to suggest that the task ahead will be simple. Inchoate anxiety toward the U.S. showed up when we asked Iraqis if they thought the U.S. would help or hurt Iraq over a five-year period. By 50% to 36% they chose hurt over help

Less than 30% of our sample of Iraqis knew or heard of anyone killed in the spring fighting. Meanwhile, fully half knew some family member, neighbor or friend who had been killed by Iraqi security forces during the years Saddam held power.

Two thirds of those with an opinion urged that the coalition troops should stick around for at least another year


source: http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110003991

quatoria
09-10-2003, 08:28 PM
Damn, if the methodology behind those numbers is sound, that's some very reassuring information to hear. Makes it seem as if the situation can be turned around, if somehow the flood of foreign fanatics can be foiled.

XPav
09-11-2003, 01:00 AM
Its an interesting survey that has many lessons to learn. Saddam was a brutal monster, and obviously, now that we're there, we've got work to do. We've got a chance, now we just have to not fuck it up.

Yes, in case you're wondering, I think Bush could fuck it up. Bush isn't exactly one for sticking to his grandiose promises. AIDS help for Africa? Sorry, no money for that. No Child Left Behind! Sorry, no money for that. Faith-based aid agencies? Sorry, no money for that. Afghanistan? Sorry, no money for that. TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH!

I'm curious though, why they didn't poll Baghdad residents. Baghdad is the largest (4.5 million) and most important city in Iraq after all, and where a lot of attention is.

theblackw0lf
09-11-2003, 01:55 AM
Bush said no money for Africa? I must have missed that. Could you send me a link about it?

bmulligan
09-11-2003, 04:37 AM
but it's so much more fun to regurgitate democratic rhetoric than to actually know what you're talking about. Bush signed an addition 12 week unemployment benefit bill in January, signed an education bill with a 46% increase in federal spending, a multi billion $ agriculture subsidy bill, a $15 million dollar Aids bill, not to mention a steel tariff to 'protect' the steel industry which hasn't worked.

I don't think Bush has the power to dissolve a bill after it's been signed, unless there's been a new constitutional ammendment I don't know about. As far as the Faith based initiative, I believe congress blocked that bill from going to a vote but Bush has been trying to 'administratively' use funds from a congressional fund to implement their policies. There's still some question as to the consitutionality of it. I'm not sure, but perhaps Xpav could enlighten us.

Midnight Son
09-11-2003, 04:46 AM
Does every discussion have to come down to partisan yacking?

quatoria
09-11-2003, 05:24 AM
When this forum is full of ultra-pundits looking for an excuse to launch personal attacks and fling insults the second they see a point they disagree with, yes. Lizard King has been decent about it, but I can hardly think of a BM reply that hasn't been full of derisive invective, and hermy is worse.

Anders Hallin
09-11-2003, 05:36 AM
When this forum is full of ultra-pundits looking for an excuse to launch personal attacks and fling insults the second they see a point they disagree with, yes. Lizard King has been decent about it, but I can hardly think of a BM reply that hasn't been full of derisive invective, and hermy is worse.
Well, it's not like the problem is one-sided (http://www.quartertothree.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=129873#129873).

quatoria
09-11-2003, 05:40 AM
When this forum is full of ultra-pundits looking for an excuse to launch personal attacks and fling insults the second they see a point they disagree with, yes. Lizard King has been decent about it, but I can hardly think of a BM reply that hasn't been full of derisive invective, and hermy is worse.
Well, it's not like the problem is one-sided (http://www.quartertothree.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=129873#129873).

That wasn't an insult. It was an accurate summation of his position, as expressed in http://www.quartertothree.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=129633#129463. That said, no, the problem is not one-sided. It's cyclical.

Anders Hallin
09-11-2003, 05:46 AM
That wasn't an insult. It was an accurate summation of his position
Even if it would be, it was completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand. The problem is rarely that people start swinging around dirty arguments on issues, more that people can't avoid bringing in unconnected arguments just to show how wrong the other side is all the time.

Lizard_King
09-11-2003, 07:48 AM
Even if it would be, it was completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand. The problem is rarely that people start swinging around dirty arguments on issues, more that people can't avoid bringing in unconnected arguments just to show how wrong the other side is all the time.

I wrote an extended response to the above, but your post came just in time. Something to think about, indeed.

I was genuinely surprised that this poll was taken by Zogby. You'd think with the beating he regularly takes in the conservative media, he'd be too hardened and cynical to go after anything as obviously supportive to Bush.

Bub, Andrew
09-11-2003, 07:54 AM
I was genuinely surprised that this poll was taken by Zogby. You'd think with the beating he regularly takes in the conservative media, he'd be too hardened and cynical to go after anything as obviously supportive to Bush.

Just because you're used to an agenda, doesn't mean everyone else thinks that way.

Lizard_King
09-11-2003, 07:59 AM
Just because you're used to an agenda, doesn't mean everyone else thinks that way.

Thanks, kemo sabe. Knowing is half the battle. And, what?

Rywill
09-11-2003, 08:29 AM
I can hardly think of a BM reply that hasn't been full of derisive invective, and hermy is worse.
Way to gloss over the fact that it was ultraliberal XPav, not one of the conservatives, who actually derailed this thread with a bunch of OT anti-Bush stuff.

XPav
09-11-2003, 08:59 AM
Ultraliberal. Heh. I just don't like Bush, and aren't afraid of saying it. As people have pointed out before, the small sample size and strident posturing on this forum really make everyone seem like crazy right wingers or crazy left wingers, despite the fact that pretty much everyone self-identified themselves as being around the center.

Alright, I'll go start another thread with my "Bush doesn't back up his promises" stuff. This thead is for dicussion of the Zogby poll.

Bub, Andrew
09-11-2003, 09:33 AM
I know a lot of right-wing Republicans who hate Bush. They just wish there was a different Republican in charge. I'm a moderate Dem myself and I wish there was a different Republican in charge! You don't have to dig very far to find very disturbing things about the Bush Administration and it's track record.

Lizard_King
09-11-2003, 09:44 AM
Ultraliberal. Heh. I just don't like Bush, and aren't afraid of saying it. As people have pointed out before, the small sample size and strident posturing on this forum really make everyone seem like crazy right wingers or crazy left wingers, despite the fact that pretty much everyone self-identified themselves as being around the center.
I don't do that except in obvious jest, and I sure aren't afraid of saying it. No siree. Not even on what I consider a legitimate spectrum.


I know a lot of right-wing Republicans who hate Bush. They just wish there was a different Republican in charge. I'm a moderate Dem myself and I wish there was a different Republican in charge! You don't have to dig very far to find very disturbing things about the Bush Administration and it's track record.

I'm still curious what that has to do with my comment about Zogby. Not baiting, I really don't understand.

Midnight Son
09-11-2003, 10:11 AM
Zogby, isn't that an animatronic toy? :lol:

Bub, Andrew
09-11-2003, 10:25 AM
I'm still curious what that has to do with my comment about Zogby. Not baiting, I really don't understand.

It doesn't.

My problem with your comment about Zogby is that you implied Zogby was biased. Or at least you implied that you expected Zogby to be biased based on right-wing attacks and criticism. I think Zogby has a reputation to maintain and probably doesn't choose what poll to do based on who was pissed off about the last one.

And if Zogby does let that sort of thing influence what they do, it seems more likely to me that it would lean toward doing a poll that might help Bush than away from it. Just to emphasise "balance".

Lizard_King
09-11-2003, 10:35 AM
It doesn't.

My problem with your comment about Zogby is that you implied Zogby was biased. Or at least you implied that you expected Zogby to be biased based on right-wing attacks and criticism. I think Zogby has a reputation to maintain and probably doesn't choose what poll to do based on who was pissed off about the last one.

And if Zogby does let that sort of thing influence what they do, it seems more likely to me that it would lean toward doing a poll that might help Bush than away from it. Just to emphasise "balance".

Um. Ok. Thanks for clearing that up.

Jason McCullough
09-11-2003, 10:44 AM
Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle).

No Baghdad?


Mr. Zinsmeister, editor in chief of The American Enterprise magazine and holder of the J.B. Fuqua chair at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of "Boots on the Ground: A Month With the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq," just out from St. Martin's Press.


It's an encouraging poll, but treat with care; Zogby's honest, but AEI isn't.


I was genuinely surprised that this poll was taken by Zogby. You'd think with the beating he regularly takes in the conservative media, he'd be too hardened and cynical to go after anything as obviously supportive to Bush.

Dude, Zogby was the pollster conservatives loved until very, very recently.

Lizard_King
09-11-2003, 11:09 AM
Dude, Zogby was the pollster conservatives loved until very, very recently.

I did not know that. I never had beef with him, but I certainly have come across a great deal of vitriol in his direction in the last couple of years.

Jason McCullough
09-11-2003, 11:59 AM
I think there was some sort of schism around 2000 over John McCain. Can't remember, and google isn't helping.

Lizard_King
09-11-2003, 12:13 PM
I think there was some sort of schism around 2000 over John McCain. Can't remember, and google isn't helping.

There was a lot of schismicating over that. How interesting.