Car ownership has jumped the shark?

[wildpokerman]

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/06/01/chart-of-the-day-car-ownership

It may not have been peak oil but it may have been peak car.

[Andrew Mayer]

I am against your overly broad use of the term "Jumping the Shark".

[Jakub]

It'd be nice if that chart was legible.

[Ben Sones]

So that chart and article are really just an incredibly complicated way to say that car sales are way down right now? Because I think everyone already knew that without the chart. The rest of his argument is wildly speculative, i.e. "Even if they manage to hold on to their old clunkers for a bit longer than they otherwise might have done, the total number of cars per 1,000 people is likely to fall quite dramatically: a year or two of this and we could be back where we were ten years ago." Er, okay. According to his chart, car sales dropped very recently, so I'm not sure why we're supposed to assume that everyone is driving clunkers. And people deciding to hold onto their current cars for a year or two longer than they would in a strong economy is not going to make overall car ownership drop.

[wildpokerman]

It'd be nice if that chart was legible.

Get some glasses you old responsible man ;).

[Jakub]

Haha I do have some :(

And I'm wondering if I shouldn't have spent my vacation money on laser eye surgery.

[wildpokerman]

So that chart and article are really just an incredibly complicated way to say that car sales are way down right now? Because I think everyone already knew that without the chart. The rest of his argument is wildly speculative, i.e. "Even if they manage to hold on to their old clunkers for a bit longer than they otherwise might have done, the total number of cars per 1,000 people is likely to fall quite dramatically: a year or two of this and we could be back where we were ten years ago." Er, okay. According to his chart, car sales dropped very recently, so I'm not sure why we're supposed to assume that everyone is driving clunkers. And people deciding to hold onto their current cars for a year or two longer than they would in a strong economy is not going to make overall car ownership drop.

That's why I have the question mark. If he was reading his very own chart he'd see a similar decline in the 70s. So I'm wondering why he's not reading his chart and saying once this downturn is over we should be back to buying more cars than ever.

Every time I see someone claim that the overall long term trends have changed due to a short term event I get very suspicious.

This started when I was right out of college in 1999 and the first Wall Street Journal I picked up had a whole supplemental section explaining why we would never have a traditional recession again. The economy was too diversified and the global nature of trade would prevent this from happening. I knew it was junk theory from the moment I read it.

[Pogo]

I came for the jumping of sharks.

I left disappointed.

[WildElf]

That's why I have the question mark. If he was reading his very own chart he'd see a similar decline in the 70s.

Yeah. And considering that the downturn has hit the lows of the 70s (and seems to be going down) we should expect to see it hit lower points.

I've got a quote from great financial commentator for Felix, "it's the economy stupid."

[Midnight Son]

The yellow Hummer short bus market is saturated!

[wildpokerman]

The yellow Hummer short bus market is saturated!

You may be right about that. The chart of personal ownership of military class vehicles is probably a much easier one to interpret.

[Scrax]

I'm constantly surprised that a friend of mine's boyfriend is 28, and doesn't have a car nor a driver's license. Yet, he manages to survive in Virginia. New York or DC maybe, but Richmond? Do not advise.

[Jose Liz]

So, is leasing the way to go now?

[Mean Dr. Lily]

Jumping the shark has jumped the shark.

[metta]

My wife and I are in our 40's and neither of us have a drivers license. Cars just seem like such a money pit. Often our friends comment on how nice our house is and how nicely decorated, and we say "Yeah, the secret is no car, no kids" :p

[tronnc]

I'm 28 and while i do still own a car I almost never drive it (i drive it about once every month and usually for less than 20 miles when i do), and if it died I would not replace it. It's been this way for me since early 2006 and I would never go back, the actual experience of driving is just frustrating biking is way more fun. Its amazing how much money you save, I think I paid for gas twice last year and other than one oil change haven't had to do any repairs.

[Aszurom]

Do you guys live 15 miles from your job, with no public transportation available?

[WarrenM]

Biking everywhere sounds great until that somewhere is more than a few miles away. And requires you to bring something larger than an envelope with you. Or you need to be there within the hour not covered in sweat.

[WildElf]

So, is leasing the way to go now?

Only if you hate money.

[Coca Cola Zero]

I'm still driving a 1993 Toyota Camry. Runs great!

[Robert Sharp]

My wife and I are in our 40's and neither of us have a drivers license. Cars just seem like such a money pit. Often our friends comment on how nice our house is and how nicely decorated, and we say "Yeah, the secret is no car, no kids" :p

Kids are expensive. Cars not so much, depending. Of course, it also depends on where you live. I could not get by without a car where I live in the middle of nowhere Ohio. The closest Wal-Mart is a 10 minute drive away (by interstate).

The used car market is on fire, obviously, right now. Or at least, there's high demand among the dealers. They've been harassing my mother in law to get her to sell them her car (that she recently bought from them new!). In fact, she has a second car that she will be giving us soon because she's not willing to sell it back to the dealership...out of spite, it seems.

[WarrenM]

Only if you hate money.
Yeah, leasing is the most expensive way to operate a vehicle.

The way to make your car not expensive is to buy it. Pick a reliable brand with a good track record and pay it off. Drive it until it falls apart. I'm still driving my 98 Mustang and won't be stopping until the car dies. I know some people have problems with Mustangs but mine has been really reliable and problem free. All it costs me is gas, property tax and maybe one minor repair a year. WAY cheaper than making car payments.

[noun]

Biking everywhere sounds great until that somewhere is more than a few miles away. And requires you to bring something larger than an envelope with you. Or you need to be there within the hour not covered in sweat.

Or you need to get somewhere in adverse weather conditions. Or you need to carry something weighing 50 pounds or more. Or you need to transport people.

Don't get me wrong, I love my bicycle and make excuses to go riding every chance I get, but it really is useless for most aspects of modern life.

[noun]

So back on topic I think it might be more accurate to say NEW car ownership is, if not obsolete, completely irrelevant in this economy. Cars themselves are still necessary for a whole host of reasons, but paying $20K+ for a new car is absolutely out of the question for most people.

[Eric P]

I'm constantly surprised that a friend of mine's boyfriend is 28, and doesn't have a car nor a driver's license. Yet, he manages to survive in Virginia. New York or DC maybe, but Richmond? Do not advise.

i lived in richmond for many years and can see how it would be doable

unpleasant but totally doable

[bago]

Or you need to get somewhere in adverse weather conditions. Or you need to carry something weighing 50 pounds or more. Or you need to transport people.

Don't get me wrong, I love my bicycle and make excuses to go riding every chance I get, but it really is useless for most aspects of modern life.

You're in Portland. Not exactly as hilly as Seattle or San Fran. When it comes to the East Coast? Pfft.

[Eric T Cheng]

Don't get me wrong, I love my bicycle and make excuses to go riding every chance I get, but it really is useless for most aspects of modern life.

I live in downtown Vancouver, where everything I need (groceries, movie theatres, shopping, work) are all within walking or biking distance. I haven't had a car since 2000 although lately I've been thinking of getting a Jeep to go camping and to the gun range (which are in the outskirt suburb cities).

[noun]

Yeah, but that goes for any urban environment. And in those cities where bicycles aren't the best idea (like San Fran) there's usually stellar public transportation available instead.

Still, being without a car is great for people that are young, single, and don't own much. Not as practical when you get older and start a family.

[bago]

I live in downtown Vancouver, where everything I need (groceries, movie theatres, shopping, work) are all within walking or biking distance. I haven't had a car since 2000 although lately I've been thinking of getting a Jeep to go camping and to the gun range (which are in the outskirt suburb cities).

Canada or US?

[Saiban]

Canada or US?

Is there a downtown Vancouver in the US?

[cesare]

My wife and I are in our 40's and neither of us have a drivers license. Cars just seem like such a money pit. Often our friends comment on how nice our house is and how nicely decorated, and we say "Yeah, the secret is no car, no kids" :p

I had a car for one year in my life, and that's when I was delivering pizzas. I know it's not an option for everyone, but my goal is to never own a car again. For me the choice of paying higher rent to live somewhere convenient versus paying less to live far away and have car payments/insurance/gas/repairs/etc is a no-brainer.

[Phil_Stein]

So, for those of you who are post-college/HS, living and working car-less, how do you do it?

Buying groceries, buying clothes or other bulky stuff, going to work, getting to the airport, etc.

Obviously, some cities are more conducive to this than others.

[Lux]

So, for those of you who are post-college/HS, living and working car-less, how do you do it?

Buying groceries, buying clothes or other bulky stuff, going to work, getting to the airport, etc.

Obviously, some cities are more conducive to this than others.

The city you're in and occupation you have make a HUGE difference with regards to how viable car-lessness is.

My brother lives in NYC as an editor/grad student and considers having a car just plain stupid. Too expensive on top of the other expenses and mass transit gets you everywhere you need to go anyway. As far as he's concerned there is zero advantage to having a car since he doesn't have time to leave the city between full time work and full time school anyway.

I, on the other hand, was a freelance musician/recording engineer/composer/contractor in Los Angeles for most of my adult life and my young adulthood ethic of 100% bike commuting lasted about 2 weeks of 20 mile commutes with horns and a tux on my back and scouting out shower spots before every gig. It became even less viable once I added recording to my bag of tricks and had to haul a hundred pounds of gear to several different venues a day. On top of the sheer distances involved, biking in L.A. and traffic on L.A. streets is just scarey, particularly when heavily laden and worried about getting somewhere on time.

Since that career tanked last fall and I moved to Anchorage where I do an occasional orchestral gig and have a librarian day job there's almost no reason to have a car anymore other than conveniance and costco runs (since I do, in fact, still have a car insured and in the driveway might as well save some money shopping in bulk). Sure it gets cold in Anchorage but the bike infrastructure here is fantastic and if you have studded tires for your bike and warm clothes you're set. Maximum 20 mile commute (Anchorage to the distant Eagle River suburb) rather than mean 20 mile commute. For normal grocery trips I have an old Equinox trailer for my bike that easily carries a household's worth of groceries. Other than that a car is nice being able to get out of town in the summer and other conveniances but it's really a luxury up here rather than absolutely essential for daily life. As far as travel goes (just to hit the airport question) you could just call super shuttle or a cab like folks tend to do at the far end of a travel destination.

[John Many Jars]

I haven't had a car in 10 or 11 years. (I hate driving.)

Currently I take a free company bus to work and back, downtown San Francisco to South San Francisco (a near suburb). The bus stop is two or three blocks from my apartment, in front of a CalTrain station; before the company started up this route, I took the train and then a free shuttle to my building.

A supermarket is right across the street from the bus stop, so I just buy a bag or two of groceries on my way home maybe twice a week.

I buy almost everything else online --- this is key, actually. Furniture or whatever I have delivered by the store if it's new. Last year I bought two massive handmade mahogany CD bookcases on Craigslist, and I rented a U-Haul and hired a couple of day laborers to help.

For the airport or if I've been out rocking and rolling or if I have a firm appointment in some weird place, I just grab a cab. The expense is nothing compared with car payments, insurance, gas, repairs, and parking. Especially here in SF, which really is a small city (lived in Chicago before, where distances between places are longer).

It's actually pretty easy to live without a car in most cities, I think. You just have to plan a little more carefully when you pick your home.

[Phil_Stein]

It's actually pretty easy to live without a car in most cities, I think. You just have to plan a little more carefully when you pick your home.

Hmm, I can buy car-less-ness for NYC, SFC and some other parts of the bay area, college towns, and for folks who have a downtown job in certain other big cities. But I think claiming that it is "easy to live without a car in most cities" doesn't hold up when you really think about "most cities".

[Marged]

The advent of car share companies makes carless living in the city much more do-able. Most of my friends and coworkers in Philly don't have cars. I had a car but rarely used it. I've had my car for five years and put 7,000 miles on it a year, mostly in long roadtrips and in a brief period of time where I had to commute 50 miles a day. You take the train to the airport. I walked or took the subway to work. I could and did walk to my grocery store with a handcart for big trips and a backpack for smaller ones. It was mostly helpful for bulky items but again, Philly Car Share makes a load of sense.

[StGabe]

Hmm, I can buy car-less-ness for NYC, SFC and some other parts of the bay area, college towns, and for folks who have a downtown job in certain other big cities. But I think claiming that it is "easy to live without a car in most cities" doesn't hold up when you really think about "most cities".

I was carless for four years in Bloomington, Indiana. I lived about 2 miles from work, a quarter mile from a grocery store and 3-4 miles away from my girlfriend. I walked to get groceries and biked just about everywhere else. On the rare occasion that I *needed* a car, I'd get a friend to help or rent one (cars are pretty cheap to rent these days).

The need for a car is definitely overrated. What really gets me, though, is people who think they need trucks. Don't get me wrong, I grew up on a farm, and I understand that a small minority of Americans really do use their trucks on a daily basis. However the vast majority of people I know who own pickups use them rarely at best. For most day-to-day carrying, a decent hatchback will do. For actual large-scale moving you can rent a U-Haul for $20/day. If most people amortize the extra cost of ownership for a pickup over the amount of times they would actually use it, I think they'd find they're wasting a lot of money.

[WarrenM]

The need for a car is definitely overrated.
Eh, you also have to factor in time. I can get my groceries in a fraction of the time it takes you to walk/bike 2 miles there and back. Plus, I can get more on a trip because I can cart a weeks worth of food at a time.

[AndrewM]

Eh, you also have to factor in time. I can get my groceries in a fraction of the time it takes you to walk/bike 2 miles there and back. Plus, I can get more on a trip because I can cart a weeks worth of food at a time.

In a number of cities you can get your groceries delivered, fairly inexpensively.

[metta]

Eh, you also have to factor in time. I can get my groceries in a fraction of the time it takes you to walk/bike 2 miles there and back. Plus, I can get more on a trip because I can cart a weeks worth of food at a time.

We order groceries online and are charged a $10 delivery fee. We go to neighbourhood markets for fresh veggies and fruit or bread, but we get a weekly grocery delivery that takes care of everything else. We sometimes wish we had a car for getting away for a weekend but a rental would take care of that. Car ownership makes zero sense for us but I figure it all balances out: you either buy a less expensive house in the burbs, and own a car, or a more expensive house downtown and forgo the car.

[Phil_Stein]

Living in the 'burbs, a car doesn't HAVE to be that expensive, assuming that you don't get crazy and live 40 miles from where you work or something.

Lots of people view cars as a status symbol to varying extents (and yeah, I do this too), which leads people to spend far more on a car than necessary. But, if you're trying to be economical, and you buy a reasonable used car that fits your needs (but is not over the top), and then don't put too many miles on it (mileage leads to the need for repairs), then the base cost of owning a car, plus gasoline, isn't that high. Yes, you need to buy insurance, but still...

For those who live in a dense city like NYC or SF, parking becomes a major problem, both at your home and at the destinations you drive to. Parking passes and day parking can add up to a lot. In the 'burbs, parking is usually free. In dense cities, you usually have multiple car alternatives - good public transit, abundant taxis, bikeable distances, more delivery services and perhaps part-time car rental services. In the 'burbs, car alternatives tend to be far less attractive.

[Lux]

While that's generally true, I think that's primarily because most U.S. cities are deliberately bike unfriendly. With bike friendly city planning like in Anchorage or Vancouver (B.C.) burbing it as a bike commuter is pretty nice. By bike friendly I mean copious bike lanes and shared use pathways combined with zoning to make sure every residential community has essential services within a mile or two. As a soution it doesn't work for the disabled or elderly but I feel that's a bridge to cross when you fall into those categories or end up living with someone who does. As noted in my earlier post it doesn't work out for those expected to log epic mileage every workday or haul a lot of stuff around using their own transportation but they're also a fairly small demographic. City planning has a lot to do with how much of the population has those particular demands as well.

Essentially SOME cities have built it, and for the most part they have come in those cases. Others tend to say: "Well... everyone uses a car to get around anyway" and in the absence of alternatives, everyone does.

[Phil_Stein]

There's a self-reinforcing mechanic both ways. Cities that tend to support car-less (or car-lite) living will attract a higher percentage of such inhabitants, who will encourage businesses catering to them, and through the political process, encourage better services for them. The reverse happens for car-centric communities.

[Fugitive]

So, for those of you who are post-college/HS, living and working car-less, how do you do it?

Buying groceries, buying clothes or other bulky stuff, going to work, getting to the airport, etc.

Obviously, some cities are more conducive to this than others.
Here in Calgary, I'm lucky enough to have an apartment in a fairly convenient spot, with a grocery store, bank, and light rail train station all within a couple blocks, and only a 15 or so minute walk into the downtown core. Bulky stuff I have delivered, either directly to home or to the office, which is also right next to a train station. And the airport is easily reached via public transit.

The downside is that I'm sick of apartment living, and there's no way I'd be able to afford a good house in a location like this, so buying a house will pretty much depend on getting a vehicle as well.

[cesare]

So, for those of you who are post-college/HS, living and working car-less, how do you do it?

Buying groceries, buying clothes or other bulky stuff, going to work, getting to the airport, etc.

Obviously, some cities are more conducive to this than others.

Most people have already covered it, but yeah, I’ve always lived within a five or ten minute walk to grocery stores, public transportation, and various degrees of shopping (varying from dollar stores and liquidation outlets to three-story riverside malls, depending on the neighborhood I was living in at the time). FWIW I grew up in Boston, lived in Cambridge for a few years, and now live in NYC, so yeah, I’ve been in places that are conducive to this sort of living.

That said, I’ve consciously chosen to live in areas where I could be car free. There are parts of neighborhoods that aren’t within a reasonable walk to public transportation or grocery stores, that generally have cheaper rent, and if you have a car are almost as convenient as more central locations. But for me the cost assessment has usually evened out, and the hassle that comes along with car ownership never really justified getting one. I imagine it’s also a matter of priorities; I like being able to walk out my door and walk to bars, restaurants, clubs, etc. I’d imagine if someone valued peace and quiet, a backyard, extra space in a house or garage, etc., then they’d choose differently.

[Mike O'Malley]

Is there a downtown Vancouver in the US?

Yes (http://www.cityofvancouver.us/Default.asp)

+12

[Eric T Cheng]

So, for those of you who are post-college/HS, living and working car-less, how do you do it?

Buying groceries, buying clothes or other bulky stuff, going to work, getting to the airport, etc.

Obviously, some cities are more conducive to this than others.

Downtown Vancouver has a rather dense residential population with A LOT of high-rise condos (those along the waterfronts, especially views of the water and/or mountains, are at a premium) as well as rentals in the West End downtown.

The metro Vancouver's public transit, particularly the SkyTrain (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SkyTrain_%28Vancouver%29) (an automated elevated light rapid transit), is used by many from the suburbs to work downtown. A new SkyTrain line is being built from the airport to downtown, specifically because of the 2010 Winter Olympics.

I live and work downtown so I either walk or bike. There's a grocery store right next to my apartment building. A movie theatre is about 10 minute walk away. If I need to go to Ikea, I rent a car. If I need to go to the airport, I take a taxi (the fare is about $30 excluding tips). Zipcars (http://www.zipcars.com) has cars parked around downtown.

Because the lack of land in metro Vancouver, the cost of homes (technically it's the lot, rather than the home itself, that's valuable) are the most expensive in Canada. As such, even buying a home in the boonies suburbs is not cheap.

[eliandi]

Interesting thread. I'm surprised at the number of car-less people posting, but it might be self-selection.

I'm a car nut. I love my car, and the freedom it offers. I read car magazines, attend car shows, and motorsports (road racing).

But I'm also very environmentally concerned. So I live very close to work, and altho my area is not condusive to walking/biking/whatever, I drive <4000mi/yr. While I love high-performance cars, I think the dual trends of SUVs and cars/tracks with 400+HP was both stupid and doomed.

I'd love to see everywhere have the kind of infrastructure to support giving up alot of cars, it would cost big $$. I think the downturn we are seeing is temporary, but it is a wakeup call.

[Phil_Stein]

If, 10 or 30 or 70 years from now, cars become highly impractical/expensive for fuel/environmental reasons, I don't think it would be THAT hard or take THAT long for city development patterns to shift back to how they were in say, the late 1800s or early 1900s.

Even though I like suburban life and my nice backyard, I wouldn't be mortified to return to that kind of lifestyle. The problem is that it really needs to be embraced to be a step above, or even roughly equal with, suburban living. In many US metropolitan areas today, including, I think, mine (St. Louis), the inner core is pretty rotten. There are gentrified, relatively high density areas around here that would be decent to live in, but as far as I know they're either very pricey, or they have other major drawbacks like bad public schools or questionable safety.

[Qmanol]

Car ownership isn't that bad if you treat a car as a strictly utilitarian purchase. I paid $2000 for an old Toyota Camry 4 years ago, and I probably spend around $1000 a year in petrol since I only live 5 miles from work.

[Mister Widget]

The need for a car is definitely overrated.
That really depends on the city that you live in. I've lived in Los Angeles, which has an absolutely atrocious public transit system, and all over the SF Bay Area, which has public transportation that ranges from world class to meh, depending on which city you live in. Only in the very best of cases can you survive as an adult in the USA without a car.


What really gets me, though, is people who think they need trucks.
Yeah, I hate anyone (aside from repairmen and construction workers) driving a truck inside an urban area. Who doesn't?

[Anti-Bunny]

I honestly don't understand the hatred of trucks. Everyone I know who owns one makes use of it.

[Mister Widget]

I honestly don't understand the hatred of trucks. Everyone I know who owns one makes use of it.

They're too big. They block my view whether I'm driving or parking. If you have a good reason to have one, more power to you, and I apologize for any spillover anger you may feel. If it's a vanity thing, then fuck off.

[Qmanol]

In Australia, a utility vehicle, or ute, is around the same size as a car, just with a tray on the back instead of any back seats/wagon. As opposed to the odd American pickup truck I've seen which are built significantly larger. Utes are also quite well-priced, and when not carrying any load, decent for economy compared to a car.

[Hanacker]

There are small, 4-cylinder pickup trucks that get decent mileage. And if you're moving bulky dirty/smelly stuff on a regular basis it's much nicer to keep it outside the cab.

[John Doyle]

EA just moved my studio to Burnaby, a suburb of Vancouver. I've been riding a train into work for four years, but that all comes to an end on Monday. The only public transportation option I have is a 2.5 hr each way bus ride. Given the cost of real estate here and the location of my office a car is completely necessary.

[WarrenM]

As opposed to the odd American pickup truck I've seen which are built significantly larger.
We have small trucks as well. My wife has a little Ford Ranger which isn't significantly larger than a car. It's certainly smaller than most of the SUVs that pollute the roads around here.

[noun]

I loved my Ford Ranger. Great little reliable, no frills truck. I used it for hauling lots of yard waste, wood, and trash before it ultimately got totalled by one of those useless trucks with the giant cabs and tiny beds.

[eliandi]

We have small trucks as well. My wife has a little Ford Ranger which isn't significantly larger than a car. It's certainly smaller than most of the SUVs that pollute the roads around here.

Well, the current small US pickups like the Ranger are roughly the size of full-size pickups of a couple of decades ago, and the full size pickups are just huge! There used to be a class of small pickups in the US that were truely the size of a small to midsized car.

[Phil_Stein]

Don't forget this gem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_El_Camino). (Which was apparently a response to this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Ranchero).)

[Eric T Cheng]

EA just moved my studio to Burnaby, a suburb of Vancouver. I've been riding a train into work for four years, but that all comes to an end on Monday. The only public transportation option I have is a 2.5 hr each way bus ride. Given the cost of real estate here and the location of my office a car is completely necessary.

I heard from people who used to work at EA Canada is that the number of parking spaces is limited on the Burnaby campus and that you need to take a shuttle if you park at the off-site parking lot.

[Qmanol]

We have small trucks as well. My wife has a little Ford Ranger which isn't significantly larger than a car. It's certainly smaller than most of the SUVs that pollute the roads around here.

Yeah, it's just interesting that you call that a small truck when it is a mainstream, full-sized ute around here. And we have plenty of 4WD/SUVs around as well, most of which I'll wager have never seen anything but bitumen under their tyres. And are impossible to see around. I nearly got wiped out coming out of a driveway because a giant bloody brick of a 4WD was parked next to it, blocking all view of oncoming traffic.