The market surges, get the hell out now, or wait?

[Houngan]

So I've been sitting on a lot of ill-timed stock, waiting for it to get back to even through the crisis, and it has reached that point today.

Oh gurus of finance, get the hell out now, or hold for future profits? Frankly I'd like to pull it all out and reinvest in VFINX after tomorrow's inevitable profit-taking, and go long-haul.

H.

[Kraaze]

I've been wrestling with a similar problem all day, but I'm not quite up to even yet. Very close though. So take my advice with a grain of salt, I'm even more ill timed than you ;-)

I'm personally planning to sell if the opportunity to get out even presents itself. Then I'm going to see if I can't buy back in cheaper in the near future. I'm not quite confident enough in that strategy to sell short in the same equities in the interim while waiting for prices to drop again,

[Midnight Son]

If you think you can out-time and out-think the inside-job Masters of the Universe who are manipulating everything, go ahead!

I'm 95% in bonds and cash with a sprinkling of gold dust. I don't want to play in this Casino any more.

[Huzurdaddi]

All I know is I don't want it to stop!

To infinity and beyond!

[WarrenM]

Frankly I'd like to pull it all out and reinvest in VFINX after tomorrow's inevitable profit-taking, and go long-haul.
If that's an index fund, that wouldn't be a bad idea. That's what I'm doing these days. It's much less stressful and basically autopilots the whole affair.

I'm personally planning to sell if the opportunity to get out even presents itself. Then I'm going to see if I can't buy back in cheaper in the near future.
Market timing? Oy.

I'm sitting still. I maxed out my 401K at the beginning of March so I'm feeling good about things, long term. Picked up lots of cheap stock and am ready to ride the market back up.

[Tim James]

Generally it's not a good idea to be thinking in terms of getting back to your original purchase price. Kind of a gambler's downfall. If this is actual investing, decide whether these assets still fit into your overall plan to reach your goals in the time period you've decided on.

[Kraaze]

Market timing? Oy.


Yep. A nice legal way for me to satisfy my urge to gamble. I'm under no illusions that it's a good long term money management strategy.

[Midnight Son]

I would think an Indian casino and a roll of quarters would be cheaper.

[Jason McCullough]

Frankly I'd like to pull it all out and reinvest in VFINX after tomorrow's inevitable profit-taking, and go long-haul.

One last score! It's all I need, man!

[WarrenM]

'm under no illusions that it's a good long term money management strategy.
OK then. :)

[Kraaze]

I would think an Indian casino and a roll of quarters would be cheaper.

Well, the portion of my portfolio that I dedicate to risky strategies is far outperforming the rest of my portfolio ever since I decided to have some fun with it a few years back. So I'm not so sure about the Indian Casino. ;-)

Full Disclosure: The only brilliant move I made with my risky portfolio was being lucky enough to be mostly cash when things started melting down last year, and smart enough to stay cash for the rest of 2008.

[Houngan]

One last score! It's all I need, man!


VFINX is the Vanguard index fund of the entire S&P 500, it's the single best historical investment, ever. Apples and oranges to market timing. So I'm pretty much gambling that the US won't collapse, and little else.

Oh, and I did dump it all at the perfect time, yay me. No more swings in this wack-job market.

H.

[Aeon221]

If you think you can out-time and out-think the inside-job Masters of the Universe who are manipulating everything, go ahead!

I'm 95% in bonds and cash with a sprinkling of gold dust. I don't want to play in this Casino any more.

Bond prices are dying at the moment, and yields are up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aKQhBnu7FCdc&refer=govt_bonds

You, uh, you're boned if you bought em in the last six months with intent to sell before maturity. If you're just holding to maturity it won't make as much of a difference, but you spent a lot more than you had to.

[Tim James]

VFINX is the Vanguard index fund of the entire S&P 500, it's the single best historical investment, ever. Apples and oranges to market timing. So I'm pretty much gambling that the US won't collapse, and little else.
The Corleone family is going legit, I tell you.

[AndrewM]

This doesn't seem like much of a surge. The Dow is just up where it was back in the heady days of... February.

[WarrenM]

This doesn't seem like much of a surge. The Dow is just up where it was back in the heady days of... February.
Well, it's triple digits in the upwards direction. That qualifies as a surge to me.

[AndrewM]

Well, it's triple digits in the upwards direction. That qualifies as a surge to me.

True, I guess it is a surge, it just doesn't seem like it is up so much that you could bail out now without losses, but I suppose it depends on what you have purchased.

[Tim James]

AndrewM believes in the surge, but he had to be talked into it. EpicBoy supported the surge from day one. That's why I support him.

[Houngan]

True, I guess it is a surge, it just doesn't seem like it is up so much that you could bail out now without losses, but I suppose it depends on what you have purchased.

Well, no, I can quite specifically bail out now without losses, as in the OP. And did. As for future investment I don't trust this surge particularly, but I do believe that now is a great time to make long-term investments.

H.

[Jason McCullough]

VFINX is the Vanguard index fund of the entire S&P 500, it's the single best historical investment, ever. Apples and oranges to market timing. So I'm pretty much gambling that the US won't collapse, and little else.

Oh, and I did dump it all at the perfect time, yay me. No more swings in this wack-job market.

H.

I was talking about the "sell today, buy after it tanks tomorrow like I predict" part.

[Tim James]

I've decided to pump 300 billion into the market tomorrow just to upset Houngan.

[Matthew Gallant]

I'm 75% short, 25% long.

[Houngan]

I was talking about the "sell today, buy after it tanks tomorrow like I predict" part.

Ah, I see. Market timing, to be sure, but nothing like daytrading. It would just seem silly to dump into a big index fund during a 2-4% daily increase in this market, but I also have the option to just leave it as cash and collect my few percentages of interest.

H.

[Mordrak]

Well Cramer was on MSNBC this morning talking up the end of the depression (but still claiming a recession). He said job numbers are going to continue to look very bad for 3 months or so because of the lag.

Take that as you will. Heh.

[rhinohelix]

This is a Mark-to-Market changes recommendation surge. I would need to see a bit more before calling an end of the bear.

[Mordrak]

This is a Mark-to-Market changes recommendation surge. I would need to see a bit more before calling an end of the bear.

I didn't catch that. The mark-to-market changes are more bad news. Conservative pundits, you know all those stated income loans that you decried as the cause of the crisis? What the fuck do you think changes in mark-to-market really are? Changing mark-to-market is just a "stated income" mechanism for financial institutions. :(

[jeffd]

Mordrak: Despite dismal unemployment numbers the market is up, and financial stocks are up more than anyone else owing to the change to the mark to market rules. It allows them to inflate the value of their toxic assets on paper to show a profit (or at least less of a loss). It's something that the banking industry heavily backed.

This is most likely a bear bubble. It will most likely pop, and do a bunch of damage on the way back down.

[Shadarr]

Well Cramer was on MSNBC this morning talking up the end of the depression (but still claiming a recession). He said job numbers are going to continue to look very bad for 3 months or so because of the lag.

Take that as you will. Heh.

Jim Cramer has been a great contra-indicator of future market movements.

[Jose Liz]

I think we're on our way back to 9,000s if not hitting 10,000 pretty soon.

Remember: the market starts going up before the recession ends.

[Shadarr]

10,000? I highly doubt that. But wherever this rally peaks I don't think it will stick. The real question is whether we've seen the bottom yet or just a bear rally on the way lower.

[Mordrak]

Jim Cramer has been a great contra-indicator of future market movements.

*shrugs* He claims he said sell everything you could need in 5 years in October, which would have been good advice. I think he just makes as many predictions as he can, so he can point to the right ones.


Mordrak: Despite dismal unemployment numbers the market is up, and financial stocks are up more than anyone else owing to the change to the mark to market rules. It allows them to inflate the value of their toxic assets on paper to show a profit (or at least less of a loss). It's something that the banking industry heavily backed.

This is most likely a bear bubble. It will most likely pop, and do a bunch of damage on the way back down.

Yeah, I'm not going to try and be a prognosticator for market movements in general. I just think that introducing the opportunity for dishonesty in this situation is going to be no different than doing so for individuals. The individuals running these institutions are still human and susceptible to greed over sense. Buffet made a good point about mark-to-market, is that if you think the market is undervaluing your assets, make an argument to your investors why rather than just allowing companies to assume what they wish the value was.

[WarrenM]

The mark-to-market changes are, IMO, a pretty big mistake that will probably get us into more trouble long term even if it brings us out of the current bear. Not a good strategy to let banks make up values for their assets.