Here's a Scary State Dept. for a Second Bush Term...

[Woolen Horde]

http://msnbc.com/news/947873.asp

Secretary of State Powell and Deputy Secretary of State Armitage have informed the White House that they will both step down if Bush wins re-election. And the leading candidates to replace them are...

1. National Security Advisor Condi "I admit that I didn't bother reading the full intelligence report about Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction program because, let's face it, the truth would have been inconvienent to starting a war" Rice

and

2. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul "Bomb Them All To Fucking Hell then And Let God Sort Them Out" Wolfowitz.

Powell and Armitage are about the only moderates on the Bush foreign policy team. Gawd save us all if they leave.

[Jason McCullough]

Yeagh.

[quatoria]

I'm glad they announced it. This should scare moderates away from Bush. On the other hand, the thought of Wolfowitz and Rice running the state department fills me with bowel-loosening terror.

[Ben Sones]

Yeah, announcing that they would step down is probably about as close as they can come to publically dissing with the current administration without being seen as traitors to the GOP. And I agree that it's a good thing, and will hopefully make the moderate vote tougher for Bush to capture.

[ydejin]

The only person on the list of possible replacements that I would be comfortable with is Richard Lugar, currently a senator from Indiana. Lugar has taken an active interest in Foreign Affairs for many years and seems to have a level head on his shoulders. Goodness knows we need someone level-headed to balance out Cheney and Rumsfield.

[curst]

The only person on the list of possible replacements that I would be comfortable with is Richard Lugar, currently a senator from Indiana. Lugar has taken an active interest in Foreign Affairs for many years and seems to have a level head on his shoulders. Goodness knows we need someone level-headed to balance out Cheney and Rumsfield.

I'm biased, being an Indiana resident. Plus my father (who was a fairly high-level Republican in this state, although he never held public office) used to extoll Lugar's virtues at every opportunity... the moment he dropped out of the '96 election dad said that the Republicans had blown any chance of winning the presidency. Given this, no wonder I'm more of a fan of Lugar than just about anyone else in DC.

But for what it's worth, the man is *exceedingly* intelligent, he seemingly has no skeletons lurking in his closet, and as you mentioned his specialty has been foreign affairs.

[Jason McCullough]

He also doesn't have a crazy fetish for tax cuts and building an American empire, so he has no chance in hell in this administration (or any foreseeable GOP primary).

[Prodigy]

I'm glad they announced it. This should scare moderates away from Bush. On the other hand, the thought of Wolfowitz and Rice running the state department fills me with bowel-loosening terror.

Count me on this one.

Can someone draw me a quick picture of who's running for the presidency, who's not, what the political climate is like, etc ? I'm very interested in the american politics, unfortunately I no longer have cable TV at home, so I can't watch US news channels etc. I saw Democrat Senator John Kerry the other day on CNN, he seemed to be a pretty smart guy, or am I totally wrong ? What about Republicans, who's runnning, besides Bush ?

[Woolen Horde]

Unfortunately, the Dem with the momentum is former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who is on the cover of both Time and Newsweek this week. I say unfortunately because while he may be doing well in the primaries by going Left and bashing the war, I see him getting utterly crushed, 49-state Mondale-style, in the general election.

Things to keep in mind.

1. Vermont has a smaller population than the city limits of your average American metropolis (less than 600,000). Plus, it's about the most liberal of the states, even more liberal than California. Vermont has the only Socialist congressmen in the entire country. So it's not hard to govern, especially when everyone in the state is pretty much a Republican-basher.

2. When he says crap like "We got rid of Saddam Hussein, which I suppose is a good thing" it probably sends shudders of delight up Repulicans' spines. He "supposes" it's a good thing that an evil dictator like Saddam is gone? The Democratic Party has never fully recovered from the Vietnam War, in terms of National Security image. Nevermind the fact it was the Democratic Presidents who waged all the 20th Century's major wars (World War I, World War II, Korea, and Vietnam). But in this day and age, if the voters smell weakness, especially national security weakness, you are doomed. Nadda, not a chance. And unfortunately, the only way Dean has gotten the traction he has gotten is by becoming an anti-war peacenik. That'll work in the primaries when you have to energize your base, but in the general election, you have to swing to the middle of the road, and Bush will have $200 million in advertising money to remind people of Dean's "supposes."

I'm not sure who the Dems should go for, though. John Kerrey would appear to be the front-runner (for the centrist Democrats). Hell, he's a Democrat from Massachussets with the initials JFK, he's rich, and he's got lots of hair. Remind you of someone famous? Plus, he's got the Heinz family fortune to wage war with, which would help put him on some equal footing with W.'s war chest.

I would have liked to see Bob Kerry venture into the race, but he's happy being a university president right now. Bob Kerry, former senator and Navy SEAL, Vietnam veteran, and Medal of Honor winner. He would certainly beat Bush in the "I've Got Military Cred" test.

I do see former NATO Commander Wesley Clark maneuvering for the vice-presidential slot on the ticket. I think he would be a good choice, and would instantly add national security cred to the Democrats. Retired 4-star Army general, former Supreme Commander, NATO, decorated Vietnam vet, former Rhodes Scholar from Arkansas (remind you of anyone famous?), top in his class at West Point.

[Jason McCullough]

I'll be damned if I know why everyone expects Dean to lose McGovern style - he's not as liberal as McGovern; the only thing they have in common is opposition to a war. 1968 was such chaos I can't see the analogy.

[XPav]

Its because Dean has somehow had the "far out liberal" tag stuck on him. Good thing its early.

Woolen Horde's major criticism is correct though -- he needs to come up with a better national security agenda than he has so far, because that will be one of (I won't say that there's one key) issue in 2004.

Again though, its still very early. Non-political junkies probably haven't paid attention to who's going for the Democratic nomination. At this point, the game is to differentiate yourself from the rest of the pack, increase your name recognition, and raise money. Dean's done very well on those points.

I'm thinking Dean/Clark would be my ticket of choice. Right now. A year and a half before the election. I reserve the right to change my mind.

[Sean Tudor]

Why doesn't Colin Powell run for president ? Heck I'd vote for him and I am not even an American.

[Dirt]

Why doesn't Colin Powell run for president ? Heck I'd vote for him and I am not even an American.

Because of the Electoral College system, he'd never win. Even if he did win the Popular Vote. I really can't see him winning the Southern States.

[Jason McCullough]

Ignoring the lies they tell pollsters ("why, I'd love to!"), I have a hard time believing the South would really vote for a black president in either the primaries or the general election. Doesn't matter how conservative they are.

[JeffL]

Powell has come out and said that the whole story was a fabrication, the conversation upon which it was based never happened, etc.

FWIW

[Tyjenks]

Ignoring the lies they tell pollsters ("why, I'd love to!"), I have a hard time believing the South would really vote for a black president in either the primaries or the general election. Doesn't matter how conservative they are.

And the rest of the country would? There is just as much ignorant, closeted racism throughout the whole country that would keep Powell out of office. Not just the Southern states.

[Dirt]

Yeah, and who knows what those bleeding hearted West Coast states would do.

[JeffL]

Ignoring the lies they tell pollsters ("why, I'd love to!"), I have a hard time believing the South would really vote for a black president in either the primaries or the general election. Doesn't matter how conservative they are.

And the rest of the country would? There is just as much ignorant, closeted racism throughout the whole country that would keep Powell out of office. Not just the Southern states.

Some of the most blatantly racists comments I've ever heard were at a big outdoor all day party in rural Ohio.

There is no doubt that there are major pockets of racism in the South. But I've seen just as blatant racism in the Midwest, the Northeast, etc. I asked a friend at work today (he's Black, from Tennessee, working in Michigan) about this - I figured that maybe I'm just full of crap on this. He told me that he's encountered about the same amount of open racism in Michigan and Ohio and New York that he did in Tennessee, but he said he's encountered much more "undercover racism" (his term) in the north - racism that isn't as open, but just as obvious to him.

I think the problem is people in general as much as location. The good news is that maybe kids are growing up a little better. My 11 year old daughter was watching a show called American Dreams on TV with the family a while back and there was a story line involving a black guy going out with a white girl in Philadelphia in the 60s and the uproar around it. She looked at me and was genuinely puzzled - she asked what the problem was. It just never occurred to her that this could present a problem, and when I explained why this was an issue then, she just talked about stupid that was. We had a long talk that night about racism in the past and racism in our country and around the world today.

OK, let's join hands and sing Kum By Ya now... ;)

[Jason McCullough]

Yes, the rest of the country is racist, but I bet without the South a conservative black guy could get elected president.

[JeffL]

Yes, the rest of the country is racist, but I bet without the South a conservative black guy could get elected president.

I'd take that bet. I wish I was wrong.

[Jason McCullough]

I know there's got to be a study out there showing a statistical difference between white voting patterns in the south & rest of the country, adjusted for politics of the candidates, but I'll be damned if I can find it. Pah.

[voltaic]

I hope we get a chance to find out. I'd bet that at least one "southern" state would vote for a black conservative candidate as strong as Powell would be.

[Tyjenks]

I know there's got to be a study out there showing a statistical difference between white voting patterns in the south & rest of the country, adjusted for politics of the candidates, but I'll be damned if I can find it. Pah.

The only way a true study could be done is tracking actual votes on election day. A white man or woman from Indiana is asked, "Would you vote for a person from a non-white race for president?" I would wager many would not even dare to color in the "No" bubble. If you catch them on election day, it could very well be a different story. It is such a touchy issue that I do not think people would answer honestly even under anonymous circumstances.

[Jason McCullough]

Well, yeah, you have to build "revealed preferences" by analyzing election results, because even the most die-hard racists are loathe to admit it to an exit poller.

[awdougherty]

One thing to keep in mind is that the population on both coasts (not including the southern part of the eastern seaboard) pretty much equals the rest of the country as a whole. I saw a map that showed a county by county breakdown of who won what during the last election. It was overwhelmingly red for the republicans. The blues dotted here and there but were heavily concentrated along the coasts, and Gore won the popular election.

Now say Colin Powell runs as a democrat. The south used to be called the Democratic South, not sure if that still applies. Anyway, he's a big war hero type guy, everyone knows his as a general that kicked ass in the past, he looks almost white... I bet more people would vote for him than some realize. I think he has enough to overcome whatever prejudices he might face to give it a legitimate shot. He might not win, but it wouldn't surprise me if he came damn close regardless of race.

[Jason McCullough]

.....except that a black Democratic candidate opens up a whole other can of worms. I guess we'd see if its possible to win without any southern states at all.

[Anders Hallin]

It would be as a Republican Powell would win, I think. If he wins the primaries that is. Likely gets a large part of the "black vote" from the Democrats, and while the right-wing nuts among Republicans might avoid voting for him, I don't think they'd turn to the Democrats in response, while most Republicans would probably only hesitate a little, at most, at him being black. Thereby the gains from the minority votes would outweigh the loss of the racist fucks, and that'd be enough.

[Houngan]

The article said "would step down EVEN if Bush wins reelection." There's no particular dis to that.

H.

p.s. I'm left of center, so Dems don't dogpile me.

[ydejin]

Powell has come out and said that the whole story was a fabrication, the conversation upon which it was based never happened, etc.

FWIW

There's a NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/05/politics/05POWE.html?hp) article on this that basically says that Powell has reported that the conversation was a fabrication, but then goes on to say that Powell has always planned to be Secretary of State for only one term and everyone knows it:


Since it is the nearly universal expectation of those in the government that Mr. Powell, who is 66, will not serve a second term, speculation about his future was discussed all day on cable television and in offices throughout the capital.


Though people close to Mr. Powell say they expect him to leave at the end of Mr. Bush's term, they do not rule out his staying if events like Middle East peace talks compel it.

So it looks like, yes the original story was either a fabrication or someone's source may have lied to them. But we're still probably going to get a new Secretary of State and odds are it's not going to be one as moderate as Powell.

[olaf]

Yes, the rest of the country is racist, but I bet without the South a conservative black guy could get elected president.

Have you ever even been to 'the South'? Cities like Houston, or Atlanta? I will grant you that there are racists in the southern US, and even that there are a greater number of racists there (even though the population is much more heterogenous ethnically speaking), which frankly I have no idea how you would prove or even state an intelligent case for. But do you really believe that 'the South' is what's holding back the first black President? Come on man.

This board is full of left wing horseshit.

olaf

[Jason McCullough]

I grew *up* in the South, you numbnut. Geez. The stories I could tell.....

[XPav]

I grew *up* in the South, you numbnut. Geez. The stories I could tell.....

I went to college in Houston. I was talking to a cute coed one day, and she said, "I'm not going to come back next semester." I asked "why not", and her whispered response was, after a furtive look around, was "I'm not racist, I just don't know how to deal with these black people."

Uhh yeah.

[Jason McCullough]

Hahahaha. That's priceless.

[Chris Nahr]

So were those black people that she "couldn't deal with" all friendly mellow saints, or did they perchance come to college with a preconception that all whites were vile racists and that all blacks had to dress and act like MTV rappers?

I don't know the situtation in the southern states but I've seen such deliberately exclusive and offensive behaviour with other minorities, ethnic or social. It is possible for a group to make outsiders feel uncomfortable even if the outsider is not prejudiced against the group, and the accusation of racism is way too fashionable to accept it without question.

[Anders Hallin]

So were those black people that she "couldn't deal with" all friendly mellow saints, or did they perchance come to college with a preconception that all whites were vile racists and that all blacks had to dress and act like MTV rappers?

I don't know the situtation in the southern states but I've seen such deliberately exclusive and offensive behaviour with other minorities, ethnic or social. It is possible for a group to make outsiders feel uncomfortable even if the outsider is not prejudiced against the group, and the accusation of racism is way too fashionable to accept it without question.
Like saying "I'm not a racist, but..." didn't peg her as one straight away.

[JeffL]

I grew *up* in the South, you numbnut. Geez. The stories I could tell.....

I went to college in Houston. I was talking to a cute coed one day, and she said, "I'm not going to come back next semester." I asked "why not", and her whispered response was, after a furtive look around, was "I'm not racist, I just don't know how to deal with these black people."

Uhh yeah.

My sensitivity is hearing folks from the North looking down their nose at the South and acting superior in terms of racism. For every story of racism I could tell you about from when I live in the South, I can tell you an equal story from when I've lived up North. For example, there's the story just told about the U of Houston. When I first moved up to go to grad school in Ohio, I was looking for a cheap student house to rent. The student advising me told me of several areas in which to look; I asked about an address where I'd seen a nice (for a student rental) house, and his response was to laugh and say "well, sure, if you want to live in n----- town!" I was at a University in Mass. when the Supreme Court ruling on quotas came down, eating with a faculty member in the faculty dining room. Two profs were at the table next to us, and they were quietly (but not quietly enough) talking about the ruling, and one of them said "Well, I don't know why the white students were complaining - this certainly keeps the grade curve lower for them!" and they both laughed.

I remember going through busing in what was basically a suburb of Montgomery Alabama. Yeah, there was a lot of grumbling and racist comments from some people. But I remember it being a very smooth transition (I also remember how crappy the supplies and books were in the previously all Black school that I was moved to, and realizing at that young age that something was wrong that this school had been forced to use these subpar supplies and books.) I also remember all of the reports on the news where people from the North talked about how the South was finally being forced to do what was right and proper (and I remember agreeing with them.) Which is why I thought it the height of hypocracy when I was in the Boston area when a judge forced them to do busing, years later, and they turned over buses, burned buses, and I heard racism expressed in as explicit language as I've ever heard.

Yes, there's racism in the South. But there's nowhere in the country where people can smugly stand and throw stones.

[Jason McCullough]

Maybe its an east coast thing; in Seattle you have to look pretty hard for overt racism. There's still that thing where the black areas of town on the south side are missing sidewalks in places and get ignored by the downtown money people, but there's no "stories."

[Chris Nahr]

Like saying "I'm not a racist, but..." didn't peg her as one straight away.

Must be nice to live in a world where everything's so clear-cut and simple. Especially considering that you know neither the general nor the particular situation.

[XPav]

So were those black people that she "couldn't deal with" all friendly mellow saints, or did they perchance come to college with a preconception that all whites were vile racists and that all blacks had to dress and act like MTV rappers?

The black people in question (as well as the white girl in question and myself) were all members of the honors program.

I'm telling you here Christoph, that any "problems" were entirely in her head, as everyone else seemed to have no problem in our small (15 or so) discussion groups that covered the range of background and ethnicities from North Dakooota to California to Texas to New Yawk.

She was just completely unable to figure out to deal with "those people", where most people in the same area just deal with them as they would anyone else.

[Chris Nahr]

Okay, thanks for the clarification. That does sound pretty... weird. :?

[XPav]

Yeah, its too bad. She was cute.

[JeffL]

Yeah, its too bad. She was cute.

And dumb. Don't want to marry that combo, but it is interesting... ;)

[triggercut]

Clark for Vice President? Hell no.

Clark for President. The lengthy profile on him in the current issue of ESQUIRE magazine is electrifying, and makes it seem anyway like the issue isn't "whether" Clark will announce for the Presidency, but "when".

Remember, the last Democrat to beat a Bush in a general election didn't declare until October of the preceding year. Wesley has time, and I'd be willing to bet that he'll be able to galvanize support pretty heavily for those of us who consider Dean unelectable.

[Jason McCullough]

Clark's pretty cool. My preference list is Dean/Clark/Edwards/Kerry.

[ydejin]

Clark's pretty cool. My preference list is Dean/Clark/Edwards/Kerry.

Not to hijack the thread or anything, but do you really think Dean can win? Because from my point of view, the most important thing is getting Bush the heck out of there before he causes any more damage. And I'm ready to vote for just about any Democrat (except for maybe Gephart) who can get Bush out of there.

If Dean can't win the election, then supporting him now is a mistake.

[XPav]

Clark's pretty cool. My preference list is Dean/Clark/Edwards/Kerry.

Not to hijack the thread or anything, but do you really think Dean can win? Because from my point of view, the most important thing is getting Bush the heck out of there before he causes any more damage. And I'm ready to vote for just about any Democrat (except for maybe Gephart) who can get Bush out of there.

If Dean can't win the election, then supporting him now is a mistake.

I think Dean can win. He's not a McGovern by any means, despite some people saying that. If you look at his positions he's not a tax-and-spend democrat (or tax-cut and and spend Republican). He's been painted at his ridiculous left winger, and that's just not true.

[Jason McCullough]

There's also an interesting theory making its way around political circles that actual independents are a tiny percentage of the electorate anymore, and that now its all about getting your "base" fired up as much as possible. By independents, I mean people who actually vote for both parties often. Almost everyone who answers "independent" votes for one party 90% of the time, apparently.

In that scenario, Dean would be the best nominee. Dunno.[/list]

[JeffL]

There's also an interesting theory making its way around political circles that actual independents are a tiny percentage of the electorate anymore, and that now its all about getting your "base" fired up as much as possible. By independents, I mean people who actually vote for both parties often. Almost everyone who answers "independent" votes for one party 90% of the time, apparently.

In that scenario, Dean would be the best nominee. Dunno.[/list]

The stats and analysis I've seen says that you have a group that will always vote Republican and a group that will always vote Democratic, and that makes up about 80% of those who vote. There's a relatively small group, about 20%, who actually swing their vote depending upon who's running. And they typically are the ones who make the difference (note that no one every wins by 30 or 40%.)

[Jason McCullough]

Yeah, but I've been seeing noises lately that the proportion of real independents that actually votes is down to 7% of the votes cast on election day.

One bit of evidence for this is that Bush isn't even remotely playing the moderate.

[curst]

I'm going to drag this thread kicking and screaming back on topic for just a second.

The bit about Armitage leaving in 2005 is apparently completely bogus. The AM station I always listen to replayed a portion of Sean Hannity's show where he interviewed Armitage about this "news"... the guy seemed pretty confused about how the story was accepted as fact when he says he has no intentions of leaving. He also says that it's not a certainty that Powell is leaving, although others apparently insist that he never planned on STAYING for more than one term, so who knows on that score.