Election Night: playing along at home

[malphigian]

Jeff Lackey's post in another thread of this map:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/photos/news004a.jpg
Made me think it might be cool to pull together some similar links for things to print out (or event have on the computer) for those of us who plan to be total nerds on election night.

+Swing State Project's poll closing times map (http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3641) is a good one to have handy (similar to jeff's link)
+270towin (http://www.270towin.com/) might be a good site to have loaded so you can fiddle with EV tallies.

Anything else?

[triggercut]

I'm collecting data of my own, some counties in key states where Obama/McCain performance early on may bellwether things further in the evening that will be worth watching. I'll post what I've got later.

[Midnight Son]

At what times shall we drink?

[DennyA]

We need to develop the drinking game...

Anyone says "Maverick" -- Drink
"Change" mentioned as a political philosophy -- drink
State called as a win is changed back to indeterminate or the other candidate - chug

C'mon, let's build out the game...

[Jason McCullough]

Chuck Todd (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27478547/) has a good state by state preview up. It's also pornography to read those Republican losses projected in such detail.

[Juan Rayo]

I`ll have a drink for every state declared/confirmed for Obama.

Just to be on the safe side, I`ll do the same for every state declared/confirmed for Mcain.

[Calistas]

I'm actually tempted to take a day off to watch the fun!

[Trashcan]

I`ll have a drink for every state declared/confirmed for Obama.

Just to be on the safe side, I`ll do the same for every state declared/confirmed for Mcain.

If you were a real man you'd drink to every electoral vote.

[Bahimiron]

Finish off the glass every time FNC declares a state that everyone else is still calling a toss up.

[Damion Schubert]

I'm actually tempted to take a day off to watch the fun!

It's not as much fun as it used to be - during the Kerry years, the various organizations kept a pretty good exit polls, and the only one that WAS released turned out to be very, very wrong.

[malphigian]

Nate Silver's write up of what to look out for hour by hour (http://www.newsweek.com/id/167186) on Newsweek.com.

[triggercut]

To get the most out of this, you'll need a site doing realtime constant vote total updates by county in each state. I think CNN gets numbers as fast and updated as anyone. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/)

Polls close at 6:00 in Indiana and Kentucky

Not so fast. Parts of Indiana and Kentucky will have polling areas in the Central time zone that won't close until 7:00. Still, in previous years we've gotten some coverage of voting from these states. We may not see any official results until 7:00 est though, so fair warning. (UPDATE: results will report in states that cross time zones, but no one can call a state until the whole state has closed polls).

Kentucky is going to be dull. The only excitement here is the Senate race...Obama hasn't even brought his vaunted ground game to Kentucky, so McCain should coast and we should get a fast call of the state in his column. Indiana will be an interesting watch. Watch Marion County (Indianapolis) and Hamilton County (Indy north suburbs). Obama did much better than expected here in the primary, so if he has any shot at winning this tossup state, he'll need to be in the high 50's here. Also watch Tippecanoe County (Purdue University, IUPUI), St. Joseph, Elkhart, Vanderburgh and Allen counties, all of which are homes to universities which may have populations that swing younger and could give Obama some sway. Don't expect Lake County (Gary and Chicago suburbs) to come in until much later--everyone remember waiting for Lake until 1:00 am during the Primary? If McCain has 53-54% of the vote by the time we see Lake results, he's won the state in all likelihood. Indiana does have early voting, and presumably those ballots will be counted during the day on Tuesday so that may give us some earlier reports than usual from Lake and Marion.

Polls close at 7:00 in Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina and parts of New Hampshire.

Now we're cookin'! First the dull states: South Carolina and Kentucky will be called pretty quickly for John McCain. Vermont will be called pretty quickly for Barack Obama.

Indiana will be fairly close. See above.

Georgia will be fascinating to watch. Tons of early voting here, so we'll get a hefty slice of the pie pretty quickly. The number to watch in Georgia is 25. 25% of the voters in Georgia in 2004 were African American. In the hefty early voting so far, 35% of the voters are African American. If you're needing a fix on election day before polls close, check blogs to see if the polls are swamped in Fulton County and DeKalb county in Georgia, because if they are it's good for Obama, and if they aren't that's great news for McCain. Once we get fully weighted exits from GA, we'll be able to see the racial demographics of the voters there, and you'll get a good sense of Obama's GOTV vs. McCain's. If Obama keeps the AA vote above 30% he has a puncher's chance here, otherwise it may portend a very good night for John McCain.

Virginia will be fun to watch too...but no guarantees you'll be watching it early. Virginia does no early voting (only absentee ballots, and those require proof of not being able to make it to the polls on election day to get he said from first-hand knowledge) and it is entirely likely that polls throughout the state, but especially in Henrico County (Richmond and Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Loudoun, and Prince William) will be swamped. There's every chance that the polls won't close at 7pm at all, in fact. They may have to stay open later.

In Virginia, you'll have to watch every place but the population centers. Northern VA and Richmond report with the speed and gracefulness of CC Sabbathia legging out a triple. (Jim Webb didn't take the lead in the 2006 Senatorial campaign until just after midnight, on the strength of Arlington votes). Instead, watch the rest of the state. Obama by all right should struggle in southwest VA, but if he's keeping things within 10 points when his strongholds start trickling their results in, he can win the state. Watch Loudoun and Prince William counties especially. Webb got just a smidge over 50% of the vote in both these counties, which are the extended edge of the DC exurbs. Obama will probably need 51 or 52% in both to win. If Obama is doing well in VA--indeed, if he wins it, you'll know who the President is. I don't expect to see enough results to call it until fairly later in the evening.

Polls close at 7:30 in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio.

Here's where we start to see some really interesting and fascinating results. We keep hearing rhapsodies sung to Barack Obama's ground game, so at 7:30 we get put up or shut up time.

For starters, all three states do early voting to some extent, with North Carolinians going apey over it.

In the Tarheel State we'll get results quickly due to the early voting. The Obama strongholds are easy to spot in what is otherwise a fairly McCain-friendly state: Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and the university areas of Orange, Durham, and Wake. It'll be tough for Obama to get a better percentage from these areas than Kerry got in 2004, so the key is turnout--he needs to get more voters to the polls than Kerry did and overwhelm the votes from elsewhere around the state. The key may be Mecklenburg. Kerry took 52% of Mecklenburg County in 2004 with 167,000 votes. Obama got 106,000 votes there in the 2008 primary. He'll probably need almost double that to win the state, which could be a daunting task. Watch it closely, as Mecklenburg is one of the few areas in the state where he can outperform Kerry's percentages AND outperform his turnout.

What to do with Ohio? I can never call the state correctly. Obama will need turnout like crazy in the three biggest counties in the state: Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), and Hamilton (Cincy). But he'll also need to outperform his primary numbers in Lucas (Toledo) and get some turnout in Montgomery (Dayton). If you want to see Obama's biggest chance to pick up, check out Hamilton County. Kerry underperformed massively here in 2004; if Obama can turn out the black vote in Cincinnati and get this area close to 50%, he's got a shot. He'll also need to outperform his dismal primary numbers in the areas around the lake--Erie, Sandusky, and Lorain. If he can get any traction in these areas--say around 48-50--he's got a very good chance in OH.

8:00 polls close in Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Oklahoma

Whew! Note that polls in some states that cross multiple time zones also close now, but won't report results until the whole state is closed.

This is kind of the big enchilada right here. Let's separate the easy states first:

For McCain, TN, MS, AL, and OK are very safe. Nothing to see here.

For Obama, ME, CT, MA, MI, NJ, DE, and IL are no drama wins.

In order of drama from least to most:

1. New Hampshire--just watch the state a little. Remember that Obama significantly underperformed his polls in the primary here; Bradley Effect? I doubt it, I think everyone was just hurrying polls and screwing up data. But still...watch NH. It should be safe for Obama, but there might be some tension early on. If NH stays close, then Obama may be looking at real troubles elsewhere in the country.

2. Florida--Tons of early voting in the Sunshine State so we'll see fast returns initially. It'll be important for Obama to do well in the south Florida counties of Broward and Dade, obviously. Watch the black vote turnout there--Kerry got about 9% to the polls in 2004. Obama will need 12-14% to even start to think of competing. North and east Florida should be going strongly for McCain. If he's struggling anywhere here, watch out. I think McCain wins here and outperforms his polling, but he'll need some GOTV of his own to do it.

3. Pennsylvania--The key here for Obama is turnout. He needs to get damn near every Philadelphian he can to the polls Tuesday. He can't possibly outperform Kerry's 81% there, so he needs to do it with overwhelming numbers. He'll need to be ahead in Alleghany County and be doing well in the Philly burbs in Delaware, Chester, and Montgomery Counties. Watch Bucks and Chester Counties. Obama's ground game seems to be making a big difference in both in polling, and if he's around 50 in either, that's a very good sign for him.

4. Missouri--Missouri should be a sea of McCain support with a few areas to watch: St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jackson County (Kansas City), and Boone County (University of Missouri). Don't expect any significant action in Missouri until late. For the Democrats, it's customary to be trailing in Missouri by 7-10 points early on, and then the two urban areas start spilling their votes into the pool and things close up fast. John McCain should worry if he's not within 10 by the time KC and STL start sending results. If he's up 15 or more early on, it should be good news ultimately for him.

[Jason McCullough]

On that note:

1. Marc Ambinder's FL, VA, and OH (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/counties_to_watch_florida.php) counties to watch.
2. Marc's PA, NC, NV, and CO (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/counties_to_watch_pennsylvania.php) counties.
3. A ludicriously exhaustive counties to watch list from Swing State Project (http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=0A7F3CD9F725D90F1961E5E42B F93C54?diaryId=3829).

Or you could just read trigger's perfect summary.

[Sarkus]

I have a big bottle of beer chilled to celebrate Obama's victory. However, I'm not sure if I'm willing to drink it at 5PM PST. :-)

[AndrewM]

I refuse to watch the results of individual counties.

[Athryn]

I'm getting pretty nervous about the fact that I live in one of the "counties to watch" in one of the "states to watch." I wonder if I should just get to my polling place when it opens tomorrow(today.)

I wonder if I should bring a book to wait in line. It wasn't that crowded during the primaries, but .... who knows. I guess I'll find out in a few hours!

[Tim James]

I need some suggestions on which game to play instead of watching the election coverage tonight. Copied from my backloggery page:

PC - The Witcher - Chapter 2
PC - Fallout 3 - Arefu
PC - Far Cry 2 - 8%
PC - Street Fighter II - I am terrible at this game
PC - Blade Runner - Act II
PC - Sacrifice - Mission Two
PC - Guitar Hero 3 - Medium, tier 3
PC - Dream Match Tennis - Easy mode
PC - Mechwarrior 4 - Operation 1: Baptism
PC - Descent 3 - Piccu Station & SRAD Research
PC - Battleships Forever - Siege
PC - Arcanum - Dernholm
PC - Abuse - Level 3
PC - GTR Evolution - Nurburgring, C5R, semi-pro, 7:20
PC - Wasteland - Las Vegas sewers
PC - Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin - The Mythical Beast

[Wholly Schmidt]

Abuse.

[salwon]

I'm getting pretty nervous about the fact that I live in one of the "counties to watch" in one of the "states to watch." I wonder if I should just get to my polling place when it opens tomorrow(today.)

I wonder if I should bring a book to wait in line. It wasn't that crowded during the primaries, but .... who knows. I guess I'll find out in a few hours!


I waited 1.5 hours to early vote in Texas. So, you might want to bring a book.

[Andrew Mayer]

I waited 1.5 hours to early vote in Texas. So, you might want to bring a book.

Or your DS.

[Gendal]

4. Missouri--Missouri should be a sea of McCain support with a few areas to watch: St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jackson County (Kansas City), and Boone County (University of Missouri). Don't expect any significant action in Missouri until late. For the Democrats, it's customary to be trailing in Missouri by 7-10 points early on, and then the two urban areas start spilling their votes into the pool and things close up fast. John McCain should worry if he's not within 10 by the time KC and STL start sending results. If he's up 15 or more early on, it should be good news ultimately for him.
If triggercut's other state descriptions are as accurate as MO then uh, listen to the man (or woman).

[Lunch of Kong]

I convinced a bunch of people at work to go watch "W" with me tonight at the cinema instead of the election coverage.

[triggercut]

If triggercut's other state descriptions are as accurate as MO then uh, listen to the man (or woman).

Heh. I was born and raised in St. Charles, went to school at Mizzou, and lived in U-City for 5 years....and have a ton of family in KCMO. I know my Show-Me state voting trends!

[Funkula]

Any recommendations for streams? I'd really like to watch Nate Silver, but it doesn't look like HDNet has an internet feed at all. I'm probably going to set up CNN, MSNBC, and maybe Fox in tabs and switch among them (as well as some auto-refreshing pages), but if anyone has suggestions I'd love to hear them. Any point in watching the broadcast network streams?