FiveThirtyEight compares the campaign ground games

[DavidKaye]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

A question to consider. If the disparity is so huge, why are the polls so comparatively close?

On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html)

“We arrived in St. Louis at noon. I took a walk down by the Mississippi River and watched the logs that came floating from Montana in the north – grand Odyssean logs of our continental dream.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”


http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3162/2910299350_e06f75833b.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/brett538/2910299350/)


The meat of this post is below the slideshow, and it’s about the McCain ground game. It's probably going to make a little stir.

Our apologies in advance to the Obama organizers and volunteers who aren’t going to get the full justice they deserve in this post. They believe Missouri is going blue this year, and they’re working their bodies into the ground to make that happen.

We’re getting used to this relentless Obama operation: organizers trained in both tactics and campaign culture, working so hard they have trouble remembering what happened 48 hours ago – it’s too distant – and convinced that if they stay in their lane and trust the structure it’ll pay off in the end.

Obama has 40 offices now open in Missouri, and Justin Hamilton, Obama’s Press Secretary for Missouri, told us that while he couldn’t confirm below or above the published reports of 150 organizers (it didn’t come from the campaign), the campaign is only adding to its ground force. Organizers have now recruited 2500 neighborhood team leaders statewide, folks who do the far more effective work than any 30-second ad or yard signs, actual face-to-face contact and persuasion of their neighbors.

For a Democrat to win Missouri, he or she has to follow the Claire McCaskill map, which is win the blue urban centers in Kansas City and St. Louis city by wide margins, hold down the losses in outstate Missouri (McCaskill spent huge time in and around Springfield, and got to 42% there while Kerry only managed 37%), and then win highly populated St. Louis County (20% of Missouri’s overall vote) by enough votes to hold on for a win. McCaskill won St. Louis County by 12, Kerry only won it by 9. Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the County, 63% to 36%.




Something interesting is happening with John McCain’s campaign. Up until now, we’ve had no trouble gaining access to field offices and volunteers. Here in St. Louis, we were told by Tina Hervey, Missouri Republican State Party Press Secretary, that she had never heard of FiveThirtyEight, and while they trusted Politico, we were people who they had to decide whether we “shouldn’t or don’t need to be talking to.” (McCain’s Missouri press secretary actually works out of Iowa, and did not return calls or email.) I told Tina that’s not a story we wanted to write, that this was our first Republican resistance, and that while she may not have heard of us, we’d probably go over 2.5 million site visits this week, now that we’re regularly past 400,000 per weekday. I told her I’d hold off writing her flat refusal and give her the opportunity to change her mind.

No budging. We were told that we’d be asked to leave public field offices we now attempted to visit. We did not get any promised follow-up helping get access to the post-debate Palin rally last night, and we were locked out. Hmm.

Let’s be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we've now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I'll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.

Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain’s people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we “just missed.” No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again.

The McCain offices are also calm, sedate. Little movement. No hustle. In the Obama offices, it's a whirlwind. People move. It's a dynamic bustle. You can feel it in our photos.

Up to this point, we’ve been giving McCain's ground campaign a lot of benefit of the doubt. We can’t stop convincing ourselves that there must – must – be a warehouse full of 1,000 McCain volunteers somewhere in a national, central location just dialing away. This can’t be all they’re doing. Because even in a place like Colorado Springs, McCain’s ground campaign is getting blown away by the Obama efforts. It doesn't mean Obama will win Colorado Springs, but it means Obama's campaign will not look itself in the mirror afterward and ask, "what more could we have done?"

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

Here on out, our skepticism is going to be higher. We truly respect organizers on both sides, because it is grindingly hard work for minimal pay. It’s powered by a belief in doing what’s right. We do not quote them or get them in trouble. Moreover, we truly respect direct action by volunteers – who do exist on the McCain side, just as a tiny, tiny fraction of the Obama side – but if the attitude continues on this unhelpful and obstructive turn, we’re going to spend less time making excuses for what we observe. Less benefit of the doubt. Show us real work and we'll cover it. We want to.

[Talisker]

A question to consider. If the disparity is so huge, why are the polls so comparatively close?
Answer to consider: they're growing less close every day.

[Lorini]

We've known for months that people who are voting for Obama are a lot more enthusiastic about him than people who are voting for McCain. But will it matter? Enthusiasm doesn't necessarily translate into votes.

The article also goes back to something that I said a month ago--namely that McCain's best shot is not to do or say anything. Many people who are voting for him are voting for him because he's a white male and a Republican and not a liberal. And he nor his campaign has to do anything to press those points home, so why should they? IMO, what they are seeing is the exact thing I'd do if I were McCain. There's no need for 'hustle and bustle', just show his white Republican face on TV from time and time and he'll do a lot more than 'hustle and bustle' ever would.

[Coca Cola Zero]

Maybe the disparity in movement is because the McCain supporters are SO OLD. COULD SOMEBODY PLEASE GET THEM A SWEATER? THEY FEEL A DRAFT IN HERE.

[jeffd]

David: A few reasons.

1) Structural features in our political landscape prevent either party from getting more than about a 10% lead. McCain could probably perform an abortion a day between now and the election and he'd still get 45% of the vote.

2) Pollsters generally use the "likely voter" model, which is usually defined as someone who's voted in 2 out of the past 3 elections. That means they could be understating Obama's support from new voters.

3) Not all pollsters are adjusting for cellphone only households.

4) The polls aren't all that close any more. Obama enjoys a 7% lead, which is pretty big.

[BlueJackalope]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

A question to consider. If the disparity is so huge, why are the polls so comparatively close?

Polls don't track cell phone only house holds.

I know because Bill Clinton said it on Good Morning America.

[bloo]

Yeeouch!

Not a good sign.

[triggercut]

Polls don't track cell phone only house holds.



Pew, Gallup, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, and CNN/Gallup are all using cell phone only households along with landline phone homes.

[BlueJackalope]

Pew, Gallup, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, and CNN/Gallup are all using cell phone only households along with landline phone homes.

I stand corrected then...its Racism.

[Lum]

News stories like this are why I suspect we will all be surprised Election Day. There is a LOT of enthusiasm, organization, and just plain GOTV effort for the Obama camp that isn't mirrored on the McCain side, at all.

The McCain campaign is getting very adept at campaign guerilla warfare - issuing slickly produced ads that actually only appear on Youtube, solely to keep the news narrative rolling, for example. But in the past couple weeks with the debt crisis even that has fallen apart. They still are having well-populated rallies, mainly because of Sarah Palin exciting the Republican base, but the money isn't there and the volunteers aren't there. Which is the direct opposite of what we've seen in the past few elections.

[Quaro]

McCain doesn't have money but the RNC has plenty.

[Orinoco]

I stand corrected then...its Racism.

Did Bill Clinton say that on Good Morning America?

[Woolen Horde]

Pew, Gallup, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, and CNN/Gallup are all using cell phone only households along with landline phone homes.

I'm sorry, but we were all spouting "the polls don't call cellphones" line in 2004. Sure, Obama is a lot more dynamic than Kerry, but I'm not assuming anything until this election is won and done. So fuck cellphone voters, at least when it comes to assuming that there's a huge population of them out there going for Obama.

[LesJarvis]

News stories like this are why I suspect we will all be surprised Election Day. There is a LOT of enthusiasm, organization, and just plain GOTV effort for the Obama camp that isn't mirrored on the McCain side, at all.

Obama in a landslide! You heard it here first!

OK, maybe not, but over the last couple of weeks I've come to see it as a distinct possibility, whereas before it seemed out of reach. Not a '64 style landslide, but a 10-15 point margin of victory would still make it the widest spread in a presidential election since 1984, which I think would be pretty exciting. A lot can still happen, four weeks, blah blah blah, etc., but still.

[Qenan]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

A question to consider. If the disparity is so huge, why are the polls so comparatively close?

That's easy. Because most of the votes in an election (80% or so) are never in play.

[Lorini]

The Republicans are going to produce Osama Bin Laden, just in the nick of time. Watch.

[BlueJackalope]

Did Bill Clinton say that on Good Morning America?

If he did, then it is GOSPEL.

[triggercut]

I'm sorry, but we were all spouting "the polls don't call cellphones" line in 2004. Sure, Obama is a lot more dynamic than Kerry, but I'm not assuming anything until this election is won and done. So fuck cellphone voters, at least when it comes to assuming that there's a huge population of them out there going for Obama.

Please re-read, and see if your reply to me makes a lick of sense.

(special hint: it doesn't)

[MikeJ]

I thought the main effect of all this organization is to increase the fraction of your potential voters that actually make it to the polls on election day. If usually only 50% of your voters make it, increasing that to 55% (but just for your side) would be huge.

[Lorini]

I thought the main effect of all this organization is to increase the fraction of your potential voters that actually make it to the polls on election day. If usually only 50% of your voters make it, increasing that to 55% (but just for your side) would be huge.

True which is another reason why Dems will do a lot more of 'hustle and bustle' than Republicans. Dems have the overall majority in numbers but their people don't go to the polls as often as Republicans do so Dems have to do a lot more 'get out the vote' type of activities.

[Woolen Horde]

Please re-read, and see if your reply to me makes a lick of sense.

(special hint: it doesn't)

Everyone on this board was so sure in 2004 that there was this massive, cloaked group of Kerry voters out there because lots of landline-less households were skewing liberal or progressive. So with Gallup and the polls indicating a statistical tie, we were comforted in thinking that on election day all of these people who the pollsters couldn't contact were going to swing the election in favor of Kerry. Of course, that didn't happen.

Now, Obama has certainly learned the lessons of Kerry, and his organization is a lot more dynamic.

But I'm not putting any faith in this idea that there's a massive, cloaked group of Obama voters out there that aren't showing up in the polls because the pollsters can't call them.

And, by the way, I only have a cell phone and I've been called by about three polls in about the last two months (including just yesterday), which goes to show that this is something of a myth.

[MarchHare]

The Republicans are going to produce Osama Bin Laden, just in the nick of time. Watch.

Wouldn't that actually help Obama at this point? If Bin Laden the evil boogeyman is no longer "at large", then Americans who might have voted for McCain solely because of his perceived strength in anti-terrorism may be more inclined to vote for Obama because they agree with his economic policies (or whatever other issue that isn't terrorism/defense).

[spiffy]

Most people won't think that hard. They'll equate republicans with getting it done, never mind suspicious timing.

[TomChick]

The only way capturing bin Laden is going to secure the election for McCain is if bin Laden turns himself in at McCain's campaign headquarters.

Also, Woolen Horde, perhaps the reason you're being polled on your cell phone is that the methodology of the polls has changed. :) There are some choice entries on fivethirtyeight.com where Nate Silver talks about polling approaches to cell phone users.

-Tom

[Andrew Mayer]

The Republicans are going to produce Osama Bin Laden, just in the nick of time. Watch.

http://crazyabouttv.com/Images/rockyandbullwinkle.jpg

A-gain?

[arctangent]

The Republicans are going to produce Osama Bin Laden, just in the nick of time. Watch.

Another big terrorist attack in the US would probably do it for McCain.

[Tim James]

Can I ask: are the guys at 538 a lot less upset and angsty now that Obama has a firm lead in the polls again?

[Hugin]

Can I ask: are the guys at 538 a lot less upset and angsty now that Obama has a firm lead in the polls again?

You know, if you actually go back and read the posts around the time of the Palin pick, the Republican convention, and the ten days or so afterwards when McCain was doing well in the polls, you'll see very little upsetment and angst.

There's one post wondering if McCain's numbers were temporary bounce or not and if Obama should have done a few things differently in the summer.

There's one post mildly second guessing where the Obama campaign was allocating resources per state.

There's one post talking about how using facts against emotional Palin's appeal might not work.

And a whole bunch of posts doing their typical number crunching with no particular upsetment, let alone angst.

The 538 guys are admittedly hoping Obama wins, but they hardly were balled up in the corner rocking back and forth when he was behind a bit.

[Funkula]

Wouldn't have characterized them that way at all. I guess you should judge for yourself:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Edit: Yeah, what Hugin said. I didn't see them getting into the freakout that the left blogosphere was collectively having.

[Tim James]

The 538 guys are admittedly hoping Obama wins, but they hardly were balled up in the corner rocking back and forth when he was behind a bit.Well I'll be damned. I remember going there and thinking the sky is falling. Maybe it was the people making comments.

[Euri]

People kept saying that Bush would produce Bin Laden right near the election but that didn't happen. I am pretty sure at this point that he is just plain dead.

[Funkula]

Well I'll be damned. I remember going there and thinking the sky is falling. Maybe it was the people making comments.

That sounds entirely plausible, as commenters are slightly less useful than white noise wherever you go.

[Andrew Mayer]

That sounds entirely plausible, as commenters are slightly less useful than white noise wherever you go.

That goes double for those assholes over at Quartertothree.com.

[triggercut]

Everyone on this board was so sure in 2004 that there was this massive, cloaked group of Kerry voters out there because lots of landline-less households were skewing liberal or progressive. So with Gallup and the polls indicating a statistical tie, we were comforted in thinking that on election day all of these people who the pollsters couldn't contact were going to swing the election in favor of Kerry. Of course, that didn't happen.

Now, Obama has certainly learned the lessons of Kerry, and his organization is a lot more dynamic.

But I'm not putting any faith in this idea that there's a massive, cloaked group of Obama voters out there that aren't showing up in the polls because the pollsters can't call them.

And, by the way, I only have a cell phone and I've been called by about three polls in about the last two months (including just yesterday), which goes to show that this is something of a myth.

WH: Please to re-read one more time. Please?

As stated by my reply to the assertion that "cell-phone only homes were not being polled", I named 4-5 VERY prominent pollsters who ARE polling cellphone-only homes in this cycle, so I have no idea what you're going on and on about for what is now two posts.

Have a splendid day.

[Funkula]

That goes double for those assholes over at Quartertothree.com.

I was talking about blogs, but sure, why not. Fuck those guys.

[Tman]

I think you were remembering DailyKos...they were going apeshit.

[wildpokerman]

Another big terrorist attack in the US would probably do it for McCain.

Wrong. Then the Republicans would have led us into war, destroyed the economy AND failed to protect us from terrorism (twice). I think that anything else that goes wrong is going to get blamed on the Republicans and that's bad for McCain.

[extarbags]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

A question to consider. If the disparity is so huge, why are the polls so comparatively close?

How could you be at 538 reading that article and still think the polls were close?

[extarbags]

That goes double for those assholes over at Quartertothree.com.

Oh Jesus, don't get me started.

[DavidKaye]

How could you be at 538 reading that article and still think the polls were close?

I meant the national polls.

[ravenight]

I meant the national polls.

They aren't that close either, but the whole point of the ground game is to make a difference in the places where it matters, so a huge electoral lead but smaller national lead is exactly what you'd expect from a big ground game disparity.

Wrong. Then the Republicans would have led us into war, destroyed the economy AND failed to protect us from terrorism (twice). I think that anything else that goes wrong is going to get blamed on the Republicans and that's bad for McCain.

The only event that I can see swinging things towards McCain (not counting a major gaffe by Obama, or a revelation of some big Obama scandal, or a complete trouncing of him by McCain in the next 2 debates) is a big international crisis that doesn't directly impact the U.S. Something like the Georgian thing is too small scale and abstract to distract from the big economic problems, but a war between more powerful countries - like, say, Israel and Iran, probably would.

[Talisker]

a war between more powerful countries - like, say, Israel and Iran, probably would.
If McCain responded with his usual flailing, even that wouldn't help him.

[Mister Widget]

If McCain responded with his usual flailing, even that wouldn't help him.

Even if he suspended his campaign to pilot a bombing run over Iran?

[strummer]

Even if he suspended his campaign to pilot a bombing run over Iran?

Only to get shot down and taken prisoner. Obama & Jimmy Carter would then personally lead the resuce mission.

[arctangent]

Wrong. Then the Republicans would have led us into war, destroyed the economy AND failed to protect us from terrorism (twice). I think that anything else that goes wrong is going to get blamed on the Republicans and that's bad for McCain.

You are assuming the public is rational, though. The masses are going to blame Bush, sure, but remember, McCain is a maverick, and the public thinks McCain is better on defending America than Obama.

[Mark Asher]

I'm working for the Obama campaign in the city of Saint Louis as a grunt. I'm going door to door trying to register voters. While that article sounds impressive, I can't say my ward seems like some kind of Obama political machine. We meet at a coffee shop, not an office, get our clipboards with addresses we are going to canvass, and go out and do our best.

We are not getting a lot of registrations. Most people aren't home. Or they no longer live there. The lists we are working from are very spotty. I will say that most of the people I talk to are going to vote for Obama, but that's no surprise -- St. Louis city is heavily Democratic.

I don't really feel like I'm part of some well-oiled machine, but we are trying. They asked me to do some phoning, but all I have is my cell and I am not going to do that because of the way my minutes are set up -- no phone banks in my ward.

Anyway, it's fun and I wanted to make sure I put some effort into this election. That's all I wanted to do -- make sure I don't look back after the election with personal regret for not putting some effort in towards getting Obama elected.

Oh, and we happily register McCain supporters too if we see them. We register anyone who wants to register. It's good to get people voting regardless of who they vote for.

Just a little personal insight from the campaign efforts for Obama in one ward in the city. I'm sure there is other stuff going on my ward I don't know about. I'm just a door-to-door guy.

[TomChick]

I don't really feel like I'm part of some well-oiled machine, but we are trying.

Grass roots isn't supposed to be well-oiled! That's why it's grass roots. :)

-Tom

[AaronSofaer]

Mark --

Updated residence information is hard to get. Takes pay-for-access websites and lots of time even when dealing with major donors with lots of money.

[lesslucid]

You're doing a great thing, Mark. Some random forum post doesn't mean much, I know, but I'm proud of you. :)

[russellmz00]

yup. fight the good fight! and since it's a swing state, double bonus points!

[Mark Asher]

I feel since I am from the state that gave our country John Ashcroft as Attorney General, I must make penance. :)

The other day I did go up to a house and a big black labrador came trotting around the corner of the house with a beer in its mouth, like I had stumbled into some Anheuser-Busch commercial being filmed. I was like, "Oh thanks, but not while I'm working!"

I get to hear stories too. In a way I'm invading the personal space of these people -- we don't live in a time and place where people come to our doors very often. So I come across the old and the lonely who don't get visits and sometimes they like to talk and tell me their stories. It's interesting. Some 80 year old guy in a wheelchair wanted to talk about how he his wife died three years ago but how he now has a girlfriend he has to look after. He was a talker!

[DoomMunky]

God, there's something about that level of connection with people that is so annoying but so cool. Actually talking face to face with strangers means you fairly often get pulled out of your comfort zone, but man, sometimes the most amazing things happen.

Sounds like good work, Mark. It's even inspirational. Keep it up!

[Angie Gallant]

Well, we went to a Obama/Washington Democratic Party training seminar for their Get Out The Vote campaign. I will be volunteering on some weekdays to make reminder phone calls to let people know to go ahead and mail in their votes, and who to get in contact with if they don't have their ballots yet. I can't canvass due to hugeness.

Matt and I will also probably give a weekend together to GOTV.

[wildpokerman]

You are assuming the public is rational, though. The masses are going to blame Bush, sure, but remember, McCain is a maverick, and the public thinks McCain is better on defending America than Obama.

But what I'm saying is that perception would probably rapidly change if something happened because democrats would be quick to blame it on Bush, who a good share of the public is equating with McCain. Also they would rapidly be backed up by house and senate republicans who are up for re-election just like they tanked the first bailout bill in an attempt to show how much un-like Bush they are.

The public perception would quickly change on who is better to handle defense.

[rei]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zack-exley/the-new-organizers-part-1_b_132782.html

[RepoMan]

That's an awesome HuffPo article. My sister's now a paid organizer for the Obama campaign in the Boston area. She's been so busy I haven't had a chance to talk to her, but I'll try again soon :-)

The Republicans are going to dearly regret belittling Obama's community organizer roots....

[Tman]

it was a great article. I just wonder how this will continue to be leveraged. In past elections where I volunteered, I went through a sort of withdrawal when everything abrubtly stopped after election day.

[triggercut]

it was a great article. I just wonder how this will continue to be leveraged. In past elections where I volunteered, I went through a sort of withdrawal when everything abrubtly stopped after election day.

So you're saying "how do you keep that enthusiasm up?" after the election?

There's always another election. There's always a cause. You're either passionate about it or you're not.

[RepoMan]

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama finds a way to rechannel the organization. He clearly and sincerely believes in community organizing. It'll be interesting to watch.

[Tom McNamara]

I think you were remembering DailyKos...they were going apeshit.

I think DKos is in a constant state of apeshitedness.

[RepoMan]

DailyKos: Your Daily Dose of Liberal Apes Shitting Themselves.

[Funkula]

I tried to read Kos once, but quickly gave up. It's the WoW forums of politics, both in terms of more content than anyone could possibly keep up with and in terms of the average poster intelligence. I decided to just read it if an article was linked from outside.