Some data on Xbox 360 failure rate

[Chris Nahr]

Ars Technica (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080214-xbox-360-failure-rates-worse-than-most-consumer-electornics.html) talks about a report by Square Trade, a company that sells warranties for a variety of consumer electronics including the Xbox 360.

Here's what they found: The 360 has a failure rate of 16.4% compared to about 3% for PS3 and Wii. They say that 16% is actually about average for consumer electronics at large (not in my experience, by the way) but other devices usually fail after a couple of years as they age, whereas the 360 fails pretty much right away if it does fail at all.

[Cronox]

Maybe I am a little bitter because I got my third RROD today but I would be quite surprised if it was only 16%.

Reading the article at first I was a bit surprised at some of the other numbers stated (43% defect rate of 3-4 year old laptops or 31% on desktops for example) but thinking about it that’s not all that surprising as that about the time I would expect a hard drive, dvd-rom, mouse pad/keyboard or even screen to fail especially under normal use.

[Matthew Gallant]

Maybe I am a little bitter because I got my third RROD today but I would be quite surprised if it was only 16%.
Given that it is a 16% rate and given that over 16 million 360s have been sold, there are over 65,000 people who would be just as surprised as you.

I'm not trying to say that 360s don't have problems, just that a whole lot of people having multiple failures in a row doesn't require all that high a failure rate.

[McMonkey]

Given that it is a 16% rate and given that over 16 million 360s have been sold, there are over 65,000 people who would be just as surprised as you.

I'm not trying to say that 360s don't have problems, just that a whole lot of people having multiple failures in a row doesn't require all that high a failure rate.

I understand your point, I'm just curious where you got the 65,000 number from?

[Talisker]

I understand your point, I'm just curious where you got the 65,000 number from?
0.16 * 0.16 * 0.16 * 16,000,000 = 65,000 (roughly) -- ie, the probability of three 360's in a row failing, times a population of 16 million.

[garin]

I understand your point, I'm just curious where you got the 65,000 number from?16,000,000 * 0.16 * 0.16 * 0.16 = 65536. According to these statistics, the number of people who (like Cronox) will have had three 360s fail.

[Ben Sones]

It's the number of people likely to have three failures in a row, given 16 million sold total and a 16% failure rate. There would also be nearly 300k users with double failures.

[Wholly Schmidt]

Can we get that picture of the creepy Xbox in the window to back up these numbers?

[Lokust]

Interesting data. I've had my 360 for about a year now and so far so good, but a friend who got his first 360 when Halo 3 came out is already on his 4th.

[André Costa]

Interesting data. I've had my 360 for about a year now and so far so good, but a friend who got his first 360 when Halo 3 came out is already on his 4th.

What do you think the 3 in Halo 3 stands for? It's the number of 360s it will kill before you can play!

[forgeforsaken]

16% does seem low. I wonder if it's significantly different if you take into consideration only 360s released in a certain time window, say the first year? I've been through 2, and most everyone I personally know who owns one has had to replace theirs if they've had it for over a year.

[Talisker]

Can we get that picture of the creepy Xbox in the window to back up these numbers?

http://www.ao7.net/img/creepy360.jpg

[Robert Sharp]

I thought the newer ones didn't have these rates. I assume they cover all 360s ever made, but hasn't the rate gone down significantly with the newer models. I have an Elite and it's never had a problem, but then I obviously haven't had it that long (since the Elite hasn't been out that long).

[Fugitive]

It's hard to gather real numbers, but anecdotally, it feels like the failure rate has fallen a lot with the recent refurbs and new units. SA has a dedicated 360 repair thread that's been a lot less busy lately, for example.

[Drastic]

I don't think anyone really knows if the rate has gone down or not. Bear in mind that Microsoft wasn't exactly admitting to a problem before--until the problems got severe enough that they had to be reflected on financial filings that there'd be legal consequences for not being honest on. I certainly hope they've dropped, but still got the Micro Center extended warranty when I exchanged dead first Xbox for the second. (First had died just past the one-year coverage for non-RROD deaths.)

[Robert Sharp]

Well, Ars Technica has numbers. Have they changed over time? Were there no studies done before the newer models? It seems like the info should be out there somewhere.

[ciparis]

16% in this case just means a full 16% of that company's extended warranties for 360 purchases to date have already resulted in compensated repairs or replacements (or whatever their disposition method is).

The actual rate of failure of covered devices would obviously be higher than that just because warranty redemption is never 100%, even without getting into things like failure rates among frequent gamers, etc (which anecdotally is much, much higher).

[fuzzyslug]

I call bullshit. 16% sounds like a number someone might admit to. I thought the QT3 number was closer to 30 -35%.

It's just anecdotal evidence but out of about 10 people I actually know with a 360, approximately 8 people have had to repair them.

[Desslock]

16% sounds low - it might be accurate, however, given the reduced failure rate since they put in the new cooling system and other redesigns over the past year or so.

But I'd be really surprised if the failure rate on the initial models wasn't closer to 50%+ - I don't personally know anyone who hasn't had a failed unit who bought a 360 in the first 8 months of its release. Several game developers have told me that the failure rate of their initial 360 units is close to 100%.

[XPav]

I can theorize that developers and people on this board probably use their 360 more, having a higher failure rate than the "average" joe. If the primary failure modes are caused by indeed thermal cycling, turning a system on for 5 gaming sessions a week will probably induce failure at over twice the rate of someone who just turns it on on the weekend.

[Coca Cola Zero]

Like everyone else, I have no real numbers on whether the newer 360s are more reliable, but it sure feels like it. It seemed like the number of dead 360 reports on various forums was reaching a critical mass near the middle of last year and then died down significantly over the second half of the year. You still hear about the occasional dead 360, sure, but I just don't see the complaints multiplying like gremlins as they did last year.

My limited real data is: I've got two 360s, one from Oct-2006 one from August-2007, the Oct-2006 one died once and the refurb has been going strong since, the August-2007 unit hasn't had a problem yet.

[Sarkus]

Given the nature of the design issues (heat related according to most sources) it wouldn't surprise me if people who use their 360's a lot for long gaming sessions have more failures than those who are more casual users. For example, I have a launch 360 that seems happy, but then I don't turn it on every day and have only played a few games on it where game sessions exceeded four hours in a day.

So, on the whole the 16% figure could be right but dedicated gaming forums probably see a higher failure rate due to the nature of how they use the machine.

[CastOutDevil]

I know six people who own a 360. All of them have had the RROD. Maybe we all had 360's from the same product run (mine was built Sept. '06). I don't play long hours and it still crapped out.

[McMonkey]

0.16 * 0.16 * 0.16 * 16,000,000 = 65,000 (roughly) -- ie, the probability of three 360's in a row failing, times a population of 16 million.

Aha, the word "third" in the post in question would have been key. Reading comprehension ftw!

[wumpus]

The early adopters always get fucked.

Happy I got the "falcon" with the cooler CPU and HDMI, at least, but I wish I could have held out until the GPU and CPU were both the cooler-running models.

[mkozlows]

The early adopters always get fucked.

Happy I got the "falcon" with the cooler CPU and HDMI, at least, but I wish I could have held out until the GPU and CPU were both the cooler-running models.

FSVO "fucked." The way I look at it, I paid $50 more than you and got to play with the 360 for over a year before you did. Okay, yeah, there were 3-4 weeks in there when I didn't get to play it because it was being repaired again, but it didn't cost me anything other than the chance to play it, which latecomers didn't have then anyway.

[Chris Nahr]

Microsoft demo unit redrings at GDC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/technology/2008/02/red_ring_of_death_returns.html).

[krayzkrok]

Microsoft demo unit redrings at GDC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/technology/2008/02/red_ring_of_death_returns.html).

Now what are the chances of that happening?!

Oh yes, 16.4%

[calvin940]

Now what are the chances of that happening?!

Oh yes, 16.4% x 2

Fixed.

[wumpus]

This is why early adopters always get fucked. Buy later in the product cycle! Get a Falcon like I did! Be happier!

[Moore]

But wumpus, then i'd have only paid $30 for dead rising! It's worth $60!

[Charles]

This is why early adopters always get fucked. Buy later in the product cycle! Get a Falcon like I did! Be happier!

... and then rebuy all your DLC?

:)

[wumpus]

Well, yeah, Microsoft's DLC policy is pretty goddamn draconian-- and a completely different topic.

I was really surprised to read that Sony allows you to "copy" your DLC to five different PS3s. That's not the rootkit-DRM-lovin' Sony I know..

[quatoria]

... and then rebuy all your DLC?

:)

Who plays their 360 without being logged into live? Why would you even do that?

[Moore]

It was a pain for me during the move, and during some flaky internet connection shenanigans. Crackdown will straight up ruin your savegame if the DLC cant find live and you arent on the original console. Oblivion will remove items from you inventory even, or just freak the fuck out if you are, say, in the Isles.

Side note- I got my DLC rights restored. they didnt bother to TELL me, but I tried a re-re-re-re-re-redownload the other day and the licenses, from at least some of my old 360s have been transferred. so my journey through RROD hell is finally completely over.

Only took since August to get back where I started.

I wish cancer on the bean counter who shoved them out the door early. Him and his whole family, forever and ever, until his line withers and dies from young deaths. Yes, over a video game system. Harmless wish anyways, but a man has got to have a dream.

That said, I think I'm due for another RROD.

[Charles]

Who plays their 360 without being logged into live? Why would you even do that?

Don't look at me... it's Wumpus who rebought all his stuff. Talk to him!

[unbongwah]

They say that 16% is actually about average for consumer electronics at large (not in my experience, by the way) but other devices usually fail after a couple of years as they age, whereas the 360 fails pretty much right away if it does fail at all.
That's a key point: the 360 had a serious design defect that caused a lot of them to fail shortly after purchase, especially among heavy users, essentially front-loading their failure rate. Had those 360 failures been spread out over a few years, it would've made smaller waves. Presumably, the PS3 and Wii failure rates will go over time, since they've only been on the market for less than a year and a half.

Also worth pointing out that repair rates on consumer electronics can vary widely among different types of products, so looking at the industry average isn't terribly helpful. E.g., Consumer Reports' surveys of TV repair rates have shown that LCD TVs have the lowest failure rates while DLP RPTVs have the highest. Flatscreens in general are much more reliable than RPTVs: IIRC, the least reliable plasma TV brand was still more reliable than the most reliable LCD RPTV brand.

[quatoria]

There's also the fact, as mentioned, that most of the 360 users here are early adopters. I'd imagine that most of our friends are early adopters, if they have 360's. Our set of experiences is going to be drawn from the single most failure-prone set of consoles, and it will be the same case at neoGAF and most other gaming forums. That's likely to bias our personal experiences, and our polls, against ones made from the entire set of available data.

[EvilIdler]

I wish cancer on the bean counter who shoved them out the door early.

Make it rectal cancer.

My first Three-Sickly died without red lights. Glad it died after a week.
The Elite is still holding up nicely, but any slight network hiccup causes CoD4 to freeze it.

I keep downloading my XBLA games over, hoping that they will magically start working offline.

[shift6]

This is why early adopters always get fucked. Buy later in the product cycle!
Except Vista! Get it now! It's the perfect OS!

- wumpus

Who plays their 360 without being logged into live? Why would you even do that?
Like if the Live authentication servers are wonky and a few weeks later they give everyone a free game to make up for it?

[wumpus]

Who plays their 360 without being logged into live? Why would you even do that?
I could explain but I already have (http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/001052.html).

[wumpus]

Except Vista! Get it now! It's the perfect OS!
Software can be patched. Hardware can't. I just installed Vista SP1. Can you install the "Falcon Edition" update on your launch Xbox 360?

I don't think so.