Does Obama's Race Hurt or Help Him?

[Phil_Stein]

One of the post-Iowa storylines has been, roughly, "Wow, Obama was able to win even in a very white state."

IIRC, there's been a fair amount of hand-wringing on QT3 over the last few months that Obama's race made him less electable.

My opinion was, and is, that Obama's race, so far, has largely helped him. I doubt he would have been in the national spotlight to the extent that he has been (which enabled him to run, successfully so far) had he been white. OTOH, there have likely been, over the years, many individuals who might have made strong presidents or presidential candidates who have been hampered by being non-white, so perhaps this is history's payback to some extent.

And if Obama's race (along with his speaking ability, good looks, and probably other factors) helped launch him into the public spotlight, that does not mean he wouldn't make a good president. Personally, I think that, if we ignore all other factors, Obama's race is a net positive - it would be good for America to have a black president. Of course, we shouldn't ignore all other factors, and I'm undecided to perhaps slightly negative on Obama as a whole (at the moment, anyways), but I wanted to focus on the race issue a bit.

Again, I think there had been a general perception, at least on QT3, that Obama's race would hurt him - possibly in the primaries, more likely in the general.

IMO, there are going to be people who view Obama quite unfavorably, BECAUSE he is black, and others who view him quite favorably, BECAUSE he is black, with most voters somewhere in the spectrum in between.

At this point at least, I think his race is a huge help in the primaries. Assuming the race even stays competitive after NH, I think Obama will do disproportionately well among blacks, and also probably among certain liberals who feel a bit of race-guilt. Offsetting this will be a small number of true (white) racists, and a larger number of those who, at least subconsciously, are either slightly uncomfortable with a black president, or think that the country as a whole will be. I certainly can't prove my opinion, but I think at this point, Obama's race is a big help in the primaries.

In the general election, I think the picture is murkier, but probably still modestly positive. There are two factors - absolute preference, and turnout. The people who probably factor Obama's race into their opinions most prominently (pro or con) are probably already fairly strongly aligned with the Democratic or Republican party - i.e. Obama's race won't change who they probably would have voted for anyways. I do think it will affect turnout some - with the group favorably impressed by Obama's race having a bigger overall turnout boost than racists opposed to Obama.

I think with the vast middle of the market, there will be a mixture (not always with each individual) of a little bit of discomfort with voting for someone not in their own racial identification, offset with a desire to show, at least to themselves, that they are not racists. Overall, I think that with Obama as the Democratic frontrunner, probably locking up the race within the next month, the novelty of his race will probably wear off to a large degree by November, just as the novelty of Clinton's gender largely wore off during her many months as the Democratic frontrunner.

In summary, and IMO:

At this point, Obama's race is probably a big help in the primaries, and will be a small, slightly positive (overall) factor in the general election.

[CSL]

I don't think it will either hurt or help him because he doesn't make it an issue.

[triggercut]

One thing that has always been talked about before in matters of race in politics is that there was always perceived to be this divide between polling and actual votes when it came to black candidates. The theory being, people will say "I'm going to vote for Generic Hypothetical Black Candidate to pollsters and exit pollers....and then in the privacy of a secret ballot vote for a white candidate.

While I think Harold Ford doing much better in the final vote than any poll suggested (albeit in a losing cause) my lay some of that to rest, I also think the unique format of the Iowa Caucuses may have helped Obama out. In the Caucuses, there's no secret ballot--you're there, and you're voting in full view of friends and neighbors.

So, I think the actual question I'd pose is not whether race works for or against Obama but rather "Did the unique voting procedures of the Iowa Caucuses make race irrelevant in this primary season?"

[Brian Rucker]

I think it's hard to say. Overall, it's probably a wash. There will be people who just aren't sure about change, that is - this guy isn't your "typical" Presidential candidate in terms of race, name or upbringing. It'll really be hard to seperate out which of those things really causes the traditionalist vote (is there such a thing?) to seek out an alternative.

That said, for many reasons - including some you've covered, race will be an asset for Obama.

[Houngan]

You're all completely wrong. It will destroy him. It's unfortunate that I know so many more racists than you folks, apparently, but it is pervasive and insidious. The 35% of the country that self-identifies as conservative will vote against him, because being black makes you appear to be more liberal. (I myself have this very bias.) The 35% of liberals will be chipped away by deep-set racism in a large number of older voters, and probably not a few younger voters. The remaining 30% will split down the middle.

H.

[triggercut]

You're all completely wrong. It will destroy him. It's unfortunate that I know so many more racists than you folks, apparently, but it is pervasive and insidious. The 35% of the country that self-identifies as conservative will vote against him, because being black makes you appear to be more liberal. (I myself have this very bias.) The 35% of liberals will be chipped away by deep-set racism in a large number of older voters, and probably not a few younger voters. The remaining 30% will split down the middle.

H.

There's something "completely wrong", but I don't think it's us.

[LesJarvis]

I'm with Rucker, it's probably a wash, or if not a wash exactly it's a very small positive or negative. I think Hillary's gender is a bigger setback for her than Obama's ethnicity is for him, though even in her case I don't think it's a huge problem, and I don't think it's why she's fallen behind.

[MarchHare]

How likely is it that someone who wouldn't vote for Obama just because he's black would vote for another (white) Democrat candidate?

Maybe I'm being naive, but I don't see Obama losing any states that would have otherwise been won by Clinton or Edwards.

[Dirt]

It got him Oprah's support. No small thing considering the money she's helped him raise.

[Unicorn McGriddle]

I think it helps him overall. It makes him seem more like the outsider that someone who's not going to vote for one of the Necrons in the Republican field would want to vote for. The catch is that Obama isn't that outsider.

[Lum]

The 35% of the country that self-identifies as conservative will vote against him, because being black makes you appear to be more liberal.

As part of that 35% (closer to 49-51% based on previous elections), let me take the opportunity to say that's racist tripe.

Believing in fiscal responsibility does not make you fear brown people. And there are just as many racist liberals, from race-baiting politicians to condescending upper-class twits who are fine with minorities as long as they're doing the lawn.

[extarbags]

You're all completely wrong. It will destroy him. It's unfortunate that I know so many more racists than you folks, apparently, but it is pervasive and insidious. The 35% of the country that self-identifies as conservative will vote against him, because being black makes you appear to be more liberal. (I myself have this very bias.) The 35% of liberals will be chipped away by deep-set racism in a large number of older voters, and probably not a few younger voters. The remaining 30% will split down the middle.

H.

"Racism is super-pervasive. The proof? Even I am racist!"

Anyway, slight help, I think, but not really significant.

[MyNameIsWill]

I think it slightly hurts but his relative youth helps.

[Houngan]

Really? None of you associates being black with being liberal? Even when they self-associate 6% conservative, and 65% democratic?

Hate to tell you folks, but it's not me with the wacky bias. Or is it that you just can't accept any generalizations based on race?

H.

[Athryn]

For a small while there was an actual small backlash from some blacks that he isn't "really" black, since he is the son of a recent african immigrant, and has no ancestral history as being the descendant of slaves, or some silly crap like that.

Which is about as much a pile of bull as what Houngan said.


I think that if it were 10 or 15 years ago, maybe it would have made a difference, but I really think it doesn't make as much of one now. There are a lot of people my age that grew up with the civil rights movement being something you studied in school, that went to integrated schools, that watched the Cosby Show and who Trusts Oprah, and who sees Will Smith and Denzel Washington in very popular movies. There are plenty of racists left in the country (hello immigration problems, etc.) But I think it's not nearly as bad as it used to be.

I keep meaning to ask my parents about how the energy around Obama compares to the energy around when Kennedy was running for president. It seems to me similar, and Obama really seems like a candidate for *my* generation.

[Dirt]

For a small while there was an actual small backlash from some blacks that he isn't "really" black, since he is the son of a recent african immigrant, and has no ancestral history as being the descendant of slaves, or some silly crap like that.
I thought it was because his mother is caucasian? Which isn't to say that most blacks in the USA that can trace their lineage back to the Civil War don't have a white ancestor.

[Houngan]

No offense, guys, but you've been blinded by your fear of being labeled a racist (which you have conveniently done to me):

http://people-press.org/commentary/images/95-4.gif

There's a bigger gap republican/democrat among blacks than there is among people who self-identify as liberals. 'Nuff said.

H.

[jeffd]

Houngan: That blacks self-identify as Democrats probably has more to do with historical preference going back to the 1960's than a real preference for liberal politicies.

[Hawkeye Fierce]

I can't figure out what the split of black voters has to do with your assertion that there are enough racists to sink Obama's candidacy.

[extarbags]

Hey genius, do you think there could be a difference in the way sane people person a hypothetical representative of a group versus a specific individual?

[Aeon221]

As part of that 35% (closer to 49-51% based on previous elections), let me take the opportunity to say that's racist tripe.

Believing in fiscal responsibility does not make you fear brown people. And there are just as many racist liberals, from race-baiting politicians to condescending upper-class twits who are fine with minorities as long as they're doing the lawn.

Wait wait wait, there's a party running on a platform of fiscal responsibility? I don't think any of my fellow candidates for the Presidency have displayed a tendancy towards fiscal responsibility. A brief check of their platforms will show a desire to either do batshit insane things, like enact a massively regressive sales tax in place of the current system, or to dump huge sums of money into our already cash flooded health care system.

If elected, I promise to cut both taxes AND spending, unlike certain shrubs of recent memory. I'll also push for regulated legalized prostitution (why should porn stars have all the fun?) and for a more understanding stance on drugs (people are gonna be doing it anyway, the government might as well get in on it)!

Plus, I'll be sure to allow everyone who votes for me to ride Air Force One, like, all the time!

I might not be old enough, but, hey, you people probably aren't qualified for your jobs either. Go America! Vote for me!

[ravenight]

Yeah, there's a lot more to the Dem/Rep split than liberal/conservative (especially considering how far out of whack with conservative policies the current administration is).

[jeffd]

I'd go so far as to say that conservatives such as Lum represent a minority in the Republican party. An irrelevant minority, given GOP policies over the past decade or so. :)

[LesJarvis]

Conveniently, Slate has just posted an article on this very subject:

http://www.slate.com/id/2181585/fr/rss/

It echoes a lot of my thoughts on the subject, in particular the idea that the "black people can't be elected president" line of thinking is basically defeatist horseshit. Anyway, interesting read.

[Houngan]

See? This is why kneejerk reactions are bad both ways. You're so caught up in trying to label me a racist (because right now is the time I've decided to announce I'm a racist to everyone, after a few thousand posts) that you've conflated the original context with some black and white generalization you've formed in your mind. Let's review:

because being black makes you appear to be more liberal. (I myself have this very bias.)

I admitted (the horror!) that I tend to assume black people are more liberal than other groups. I then showed that they are, indeed, more liberal than other groups. By an insanely large margin. In the context, conservatives will have this additional association that will prevent them from voting for a black man, which I clearly stated.

Get off your high horses, people. You can make accurate generalizations without wearing a bedsheet and buring crosses.

H.

[Hawkeye Fierce]

Get off your high horses, people. You can make accurate generalizations without wearing a bedsheet and buring crosses.

As soon as you make an accurate generalization, I'm sure folks will leave you alone.

[jeffd]

Houngan: You haven't shown shit. All you've shown is that black people have a disproportionate preference for the Democratic party. This is a very different thing than showing they're liberal.

I don't think you're a racist at all, and frankly the people who are being quick to jump on you over it are a bit distasteful. I do think you're demonstrating that you've got a pretty simplistic view of politics.

[Huzurdaddi]

I think it has been a huge help so far, I think it will give him the nomination. However, I do not know how it will play out in the general election. As for Obama not making an issue of race, that is debatable, here is an example (from Iowa):


They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together. But on this January night at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.


Now I am not saying that the quote about race, but it sure could be seen as such.

[Houngan]

Well, to be fair, I have a simplistic view of conservatives. And I see your point, I was using liberal and democrat interchangeably, which while semantically incorrect, is still a common usage in the media.

If we're talking about actually being liberal without any political connotations, then I gladly withdraw the generalization. But a lot of what makes people liberal, such as civil rights, taxation patterns, etc., are exactly what the conservatives will skew away from.

H.

[Lizard_King]

I don't think the alleged liberalness or not of black people is what *might* be the black factor for some people. I think it's being black, period. And yeah, I think it might be a problem, but I also think most people in that line of thinking probably weren't going to vote for Hillary, either. So fuck it.

Conservatives will not vote for Obama in many cases because he's not very conservative. That's a feature in many ways, so fuck it.

My point? The Democratic party has tried tailoring its candidates to the lowest common denominator possible in the last two elections. I don't see any reason to continue reinforcing those failures with more compromise/compromised candidates. It's not enough to simply beat the Republican party, it's necessary to begin pushing it into real crisis.

[Lum]

I'd go so far as to say that conservatives such as Lum represent a minority in the Republican party. An irrelevant minority, given GOP policies over the past decade or so. :)

Oh, we're relevant. Tanned. Rested. READY TO TAKE OVER. The cancer just needs to be burned out first.

(but yeah, right now, apparently a minority, thanks to the OMG9/11 jingoism running rampant.)

[ravenight]

Actually your numbers seem to show that there's about a 19% chance someone that identifies as black, is also democratic and liberal, a 16.5% chance they identify as democratic and conservative and a 29% chance they are democratic and moderate.

[jeffd]

Well, to be fair, I have a simplistic view of conservatives. And I see your point, I was using liberal and democrat interchangeably, which while semantically incorrect, is still a common usage in the media.

If we're talking about actually being liberal without any political connotations, then I gladly withdraw the generalization. But a lot of what makes people liberal, such as civil rights, taxation patterns, etc., are exactly what the conservatives will skew away from.

H.

Two things:

1) Your perception is that blacks are liberal because they're Democrats. So how would that not apply to any Democratic candidate?. I mean if "he's liberal" is a disqualifier for voting for a candidate, by your interpretation thus far you're never going to vote for a Democrat. I duno, just seems redundant from my POV.
2) Black preference for Democrats probably has more to do with the 1960's than anything else. I doubt that the black community as a whole has forgotten that it was the Democrats who got Civil Rights legislation passed, against GOP opposition.

[Hugin]

Working class and middle class African Americans are relatively religious and can be surprisingly conservative. It depends on the issue.

[Phil_Stein]

I doubt that the black community as a whole has forgotten that it was the Democrats who got Civil Rights legislation passed, against GOP opposition.

I don't know about the back-room dealmaking that may have gone on, but for the key piece of legislation, the Civil Rights Act of 1964, a higher percentage of Republicans voted for it than Democrats in each of the 3 key votes. (If I read the Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964#Vote_totals) correctly)*.

There are several pro-Democrat spins you can put on this: it was pushed under a Democratic president, Northern Democrats favored it slightly more than Northern Republicans, the South, which was the region where this had the least support, has gone largely Republican since 1964.

But certainly, at a simple level, your conclusion appears off-base.

*The regional voting breakdown on Wikipedia has at least one discrepancy - within the "original House version:" breakdown, by party and region, the totals for Southern Democrats do not match the percentage shown parenthetically thereafter. But if you look at the overall party votes, above, it appears likely that the parenthetical percentage is right, or at least closer to right, in showing overwhelming opposition among Southern Democrats. (FWIW, the much smaller contingent of Southern Republicans was also opposed.)

[Houngan]

Two things:

1) Your perception is that blacks are liberal because they're Democrats. So how would that not apply to any Democratic candidate?. I mean if "he's liberal" is a disqualifier for voting for a candidate, by your interpretation thus far you're never going to vote for a Democrat. I duno, just seems redundant from my POV.
2) Black preference for Democrats probably has more to do with the 1960's than anything else. I doubt that the black community as a whole has forgotten that it was the Democrats who got Civil Rights legislation passed, against GOP opposition.

First, it's not about me. Being more liberal is a good thing in my book right now. (ask me again after 8-12 years of Democratic control, and I'll probably skew the other way)

Second, the perception isn't that they're necessarily liberal, but that they're more likely to be liberal. If you show me a picture of a black man and a white man, and somehow balance out everything else (apparent affluence, age, etc.) then I'll think that the black man is likely more liberal (AND democratic, so I guess I do have both biases) than the white man. My point was that this would decrease the likelihood of conservatives voting for Obama, as they would view him as more liberal than if he were exactly the same person, but white.

In the exact same vein, I would be more likely to vote for McCain than Huckabee, because I perceive him as being LESS conservative than Huckabee. I base this primarily on religion, so you can throw me under the bus for that one, too.

Third, I'm well aware of where the black/democrat skew comes from, just like the old white/democrat skew, the upper-class/conservative skew, and the student/liberal skew.

H.

[jeffd]

Phil: I should have been more clear - the perception is that it was the Democrats who got that legislation passed and the GOP who opposed it. Not entirely unreasonable, especially if you buy into the arguments that post 1964 "State's rights" became a codeword for "segregation."

[Lizard_King]

Cue McCullough with an explanation of the Southern Strategy and How Young Strom Became Republican in 3....2......1. Seriously, this is one time it would fit.

The discussion is not an easy one to simplify with vote numbers. But at its origin the popular association between blacks and Democrats as of the Civil Rights Act is not an irrational one.

[Phil_Stein]

There's a pretty good article here (http://www.slate.com/id/87868) on Slate that summarizes the relations between the two parties and blacks over the years.

[Lizard_King]

There's a pretty good article here (http://www.slate.com/id/87868) on Slate that summarizes the relations between the two parties and blacks over the years.
Interesting article, especially in the context it was written (how things have changed!). I think there's something to be said for the idea that it is not at all positive to give the Democrats the ability to take the black vote for granted, but how can you blame them when the alternative is the GOP?

[NoWayJose]

It's going to hurt him, for the reasons Hougan stated, and the reason L_K mentioned. He may not be gay, but he's still black.

You guys can debate the semantics all night long (and no doubt will), but when people think about immigration, welfare reform, health care reform, etc., where do you think Obama will be placed in their minds? I'm guessing it's hard to imagine him cracking down on immigration (even if he pledges to), hard to imagine him not trying to get all of us to pay for healthcare for the poor (even if he pledges not to), hard to imagine him slashing social programs designed to assist the disenfranchised (even if he preaches fiscal responsibility).

I also don't think he's doing himself any favors in his most recent speeches. They sound a little like Southern Baptist services to me. I'm guessing they might to a lot of other folks who care less about "hope," and more about hanging on to their money during the next few years.

I'm talking about the general election, if he manages to secure the nomination.

[Dirt]

He's emulating MLK.

[Phil_Stein]

People may make guesses about another person's political outlook based on that person's physical characteristics, including race, gender, age, as well as dress and grooming.

But a lengthy presidential campaign provides plenty of time for voters to move past such guesses and actually listen to what the candidate has to say, for better or worse.

Yes, there will be some folks who will rely primarily on Obama's race to guess at Obama's likely policy preferences, but I think they are few in number relative to the overall electorate.

[JeffL]

It's going to hurt him, for the reasons Hougan stated, and the reason L_K mentioned. He may not be gay, but he's still black.

You guys can debate the semantics all night long (and no doubt will), but when people think about immigration, welfare reform, health care reform, etc., where do you think Obama will be placed in their minds? I'm guessing it's hard to imagine him cracking down on immigration (even if he pledges to), hard to imagine him not trying to get all of us to pay for healthcare for the poor (even if he pledges not to), hard to imagine him slashing social programs designed to assist the disenfranchised (even if he preaches fiscal responsibility).


Well, that's not because of his color - that's because he's a liberal Democrat and those ARE his platforms. He's not going to slash social programs, he's not going to try to kick out immigrants already here, he is going to ask the country to pay for healthcare for the poor. And he's not going to lie about any of those positions. But again, that has nothing to do with his skin pigment.

[Hawkeye Fierce]

It's funny, I thought conservatives were against social programs and universal health care mostly due to a desire for some combination of lower taxes or smaller government. Little did I know that it's actually because those are black policies.

Immigration, on the other hand, makes perfect sense in that context.

[Mister Widget]

Oh, we're relevant. Tanned. Rested. READY TO TAKE OVER. The cancer just needs to be burned out first.
Good luck with that! I mean that quite sincerely, no sarcasm intended.


It's going to hurt him, for the reasons Hougan stated, and the reason L_K mentioned. He may not be gay, but he's still black.

I reluctantly agree. I think it may be possible that he can win anyway, which is all kinds of awesome.

[ravenight]

Well, that's not because of his color - that's because he's a liberal Democrat and those ARE his platforms. He's not going to slash social programs, he's not going to try to kick out immigrants already here, he is going to ask the country to pay for healthcare for the poor. And he's not going to lie about any of those positions. But again, that has nothing to do with his skin pigment.

He is, however, going to do a much better job than most candidates a convincing voters his positions are the right ones.

[triggercut]

Bleah. Never mind. It clearly is going to hurt him. The "say one thing and vote another" reputation of Democratic voters appears to be alive and well in New Hampshire tonight.

[Houngan]

cut to: Stewie Griffin trades his baseball for a souvenir bat, then hits the other kid with the bat, taking both:

"Now, what did we learn?"

WHAT DID YOU LEARN, DAMMIT?

You learned that Qt3 is where I come to hear from the tiny minority, the high-IQ left-thinking 1% that I consider myself mostly a part of (or of which I mostly consider myself a part, depending on your tolerance for prepositions.) I think that some of you believe this is where you poll public opinion, just to make sure you aren't being a bit idealistic.

It's understandable, though. If you knew how many people I can think of that cancel your vote because he's a damn black guy, and are considered at the ideological top of the populace for a 30-mile radius, you wouldn't be so optimistic.

H.

[Phil_Stein]

Err, so if Obama loses NH, it's because he's black?

[triggercut]

Actually the anecdotal evidence is that Hillary's base was energized by Edwards comments about her crying, and about the perceived media unfairness and sexism towards her after that happened.

CNN's exit polling seems to have borne that out--Mrs. Clinton absolutely ruled the vote of women, the demographic that Obama carried in Iowa.

[Phil_Stein]

triggercut - maybe women are just more racist than men.

Did you think of that? Well didja, huh?

[Hawkeye Fierce]

You learned that Qt3 is where I come to hear from the tiny minority, the high-IQ left-thinking 1% that I consider myself mostly a part of (or of which I mostly consider myself a part, depending on your tolerance for prepositions.) I think that some of you believe this is where you poll public opinion, just to make sure you aren't being a bit idealistic.

It's understandable, though. If you knew how many people I can think of that cancel your vote because he's a damn black guy, and are considered at the ideological top of the populace for a 30-mile radius, you wouldn't be so optimistic.

This is what we high-IQ left-thinking 1 percenters call confirmation bias.

[Dirt]

At this point, I do think the fight between Obama and Hillary is over gender, not race.

[MyNameIsWill]

Actually the anecdotal evidence is that Hillary's base was energized by Edwards comments about her crying, and about the perceived media unfairness and sexism towards her after that happened.

CNN's exit polling seems to have borne that out--Mrs. Clinton absolutely ruled the vote of women, the demographic that Obama carried in Iowa.
So, Hilary cries and gets the women vote!? Even young women who voted for Obama?

[triggercut]

Much discussion on MSNBC about the "Bradley Factor" (or "Wilder Factor" after Douglas Wilder), so-named after former LA Mayor Tom Bradley, a black man ran for the governorship of California, was put ahead in an election eve poll by double digits....and lost.

Look, in Iowa, you caucus in front of neighbors and friends. You're standing in a room with them--or an auditorium if you're in a large precinct, and they send people who are for specific candidates to stand in areas of the room/auditorium and count off. It isn't a secret ballot.

New Hampshire was, and while I'd hoped we could lay this old trope to rest, looking at the poll numbers one can only conclude that there's a little bit of it left in liberal white politics.

[Lum]

Given how close, and how the gender polling broke down, I really do think it was more women felt sympathy for Clinton. Steinem's article this morning made me puke, but clearly it hit a nerve.

[Jason McCullough]

Eh (http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/clinton_wins.php):

I should say we're seeing some talk of a "Wilder effect" possibly doing Obama in. I don't buy that. If you look at the breakdown of the results, you'd need to believe that white women, but not white men, are inclined to lie to pollsters about that. More likely we're looking at a combination of gender backlash, plus the fact that Obama was so widely perceived as likely to win led independents to vote for John McCain in the GOP primary.

The caucus process is wildly different from the primary process, but I'm not sure what that means.

[Brendan]

He might stand a chance, because although he is black, at least he isn't an Arab.

[triggercut]

One good point made by a pundit on MSNBC just now: for 12 months Mrs. Clinton has led the New Hampshire polling. In the last three days, Mr. Obama grabbed a lead in polling data....

...but it probably was a paper lead, and in the end it wasn't so much an upset victory for Clinton as it was that Obama's upset bid of her fell short.

[Dirt]

MSNBC is suggesting strongly that race played a factor here. That people who were polled wasn't entirely truthful in their opinions. Or, what they said was different than what they did.

[Jason McCullough]

Obama stayed constant and all the undecideds went for Hillary (http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/how_wrong_were_the_polls.php).

That's what it looks like, at any rate.

[triggercut]

Obama stayed constant and all the undecideds went for Hillary (http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/how_wrong_were_the_polls.php).

That's what it looks like, at any rate.

It makes sense.

Clinton polled surprisingly strongly in her senate bid in upstate New York, an area where folks are conservative and contrarian and have a lot in common with New Hampshire. So the voters there have a history with her going back to 1992, she's a senator from a nearby state, she's spent a gajillion dollars there in the last 11 months and been all over the state....and she had her secret weapon, organizer Michael Whouley stayed in NH, setting it up as a firewall for her in the event of a loss in Iowa.

As a result, I think the Obama "bounce" in NH had some substance...but was also a bit faddish and trendy. She did the longterm legwork in the state and built a huge base that eventually came back to her.