Newts analysis of why the Dems will win in 08

[JeffL]

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/070913nj1.htm

Newt can be a screwball at times, but he has an interesting perspective on the upcoming campaigns and election.

Some tidbits:

He thinks the odds are about 80/20 the Dems will win in 08.

He thinks Hillary is much more centrist than the Left side of the party, and tougher on military affairs, but feels that if she moves left to appease that part of the party it will hurt her in the general election, and feels Bill was too clever to allow that to happen to him.

Newt says a Republican candidate has to have a compelling message that he can deliver in 30 seconds on why he'd be different than Bush and different than Hillary Clinton, and that no Republican has done that so far.

He doesn't rule out running, but most of his comments read that he's got no real plans to run.

[Unicorn McGriddle]

He thinks Hillary is much more centrist than the Left side of the party, and tougher on military affairs, but feels that if she moves left to appease that part of the party it will hurt her in the general election, and feels Bill was too clever to allow that to happen to him.

I interpret this as "Hillary will win if she is pro-war, at least somewhat pro-police state, and has no social programs." I'm skeptical of Hillary's chances even then, though, because voters looking for that profile have nearly the whole range of candidates to choose from.

Edit: And Bill won because Perot siphoned off the libertarian "stop yer commie taxin' and get yer BATF out o' my cabbage patch 'fore I shewt 'em in the haid where their flak jackets won't pertect 'em" vote.

[bloo]

I smell lowballing.

[Bob Cherub]

QT3 P&R Theorem 61b.25

Newt is only correct on political matters when his comments are favorable to Democrats.

[Qenan]

I think it's more the case that when obvious partisans suggest the other side is going to win, that's newsworthy.

[Unicorn McGriddle]

QT3 P&R Theorem 61b.25

Newt is only correct on political matters when his comments are favorable to Democrats.

Who here, apart from noted centrist, moderate, non-partisan, and all-around fair person jeff lackey, is saying anything positive about Newt's predictions? Even jeff's only calling them "interesting."

[JeffL]

Well, Rove and I were playing golf today and we both agreed that Newts' comments bode very poorly for the Republicans. But I contributed to the Democrats in the clubhouse when we got done.

What surprised me as much as anything - Republican's don't have their act together and no compelling message, hold the presses - was his general admiration for Hillary. Basically, Newt says he has grown to respect her work ethic and intelligence and, if she doesn't give the opposition a lot of MoveOn style quotes, will be much more electable than a lot of Republicans think.

[Lum]

Newt's a very smart (and very polarizing, and often wrong) man who has no chance of ever achieving higher office. Given the former you won't ever see him try for the latter.

His analysis is pretty dead on, though I'm surprised he gives Hilary Clinton credit for becoming a centrist. I always thought it was solely an electoral tactic.