Lead! It was lead behind it all!

[Jason McCullough]

Ok, this is fucked up (http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/07/get-the-lead-ou.html).

Rudy Giuliani never misses an opportunity to remind people about his track record in fighting crime as mayor of New York City from 1994 to 2001. ... Although crime did fall dramatically..., a broad range of scientific research has emerged ... to show that the mayor deserves only a fraction of the credit... The most compelling information has come from an economist in Fairfax who has argued in a series of little-noticed papers that the "New York miracle" was caused by local and federal efforts decades earlier to reduce lead poisoning.


The theory offered by the economist, Rick Nevin, is that lead poisoning accounts for much of the variation in violent crime in the United States. It offers a unifying new neurochemical theory for fluctuations in the crime rate, and it is based on studies linking children's exposure to lead with violent behavior later in their lives.


What makes Nevin's work persuasive is that he has shown an identical, decades-long association between lead poisoning and crime rates in nine countries. "It is stunning how strong the association is," Nevin said... "Sixty-five to ninety percent or more of the substantial variation in violent crime in all these countries was explained by lead."



Uh. Ok, that's.....

[Bullhajj]

This explains everything!

[arctangent]

It's a no brainer!!

[Andrew Mayer]

Lead or get out of the way!

[JeffL]

This is not BS - why, just look at the low levels of violent crime in Antarctica, and the almost nonexistence of lead paints in that part of the world. Coincidence? I think not.

By the way, this isn't some hairbrained attack to discredit Guiliani. In case you missed it, this is from a "broad range of scientific research." I would guess that the reason the mob was so effectively taken apart was that those guys just weren't getting their normal allotment of lead.

Sheesh. First I have people like Pat Robertson that make me cringe at being a Christian, now I have people like this that make me cringe at being a scientist. There better not be any wacko flight sim fanatics out there or my whole life will be in question! ;)

[TomChick]

I think Rick Nevin needs to hook up with Joseph Newman (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5684495902617203266&q=Joseph+Newman&total=149&start=0&num=10&so=1&type=search&plindex=0). Together, they could solve all the world's ills.

-Tom

[russellmz00]

This is not BS - why, just look at the low levels of violent crime in Antarctica, and the almost nonexistence of lead paints in that part of the world. Coincidence? I think not.

actually, if you read the terror by david simmons you'll see the link between antarctic violence and lead poisoning.

[JeffL]

actually, if you read the terror by david simmons you'll see the link between antarctic violence and lead poisoning.


OK - I'm just tired enough that I don't know if someone's pulling my leg or not...

[Lizard_King]

OK - I'm just tired enough that I don't know if someone's pulling my leg or not...

It appears he's only pulling your leg a a little bit (http://www.amazon.com/Terror-Novel-Dan-Simmons/dp/0316017442).

[Jason McCullough]

....now I have people like this that make me cringe at being a scientist.

Little did I know that jeff lackey, resident QT3 scientist, could immediately asses the validity of years of research without any special knowledge in the field. I'll remember this when I go for a patent, it'll save time.

[RepoMan]

There better not be any wacko flight sim fanatics out there or my whole life will be in question! ;)
November 1999 (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/683026/posts)— Nawaq ALHAZMI (whose name is on the lease) and Khalid ALMIDHAR move into apartment 127 at Parkwood Apartments, a 175-unit apartment complex in the Clairemont, section of San Diego on Mount Ada Road near the mosque off Balboa Drive. Neighbors report them playing flight-simulator videogames late into the night.
Start questioning, Lackey.

[Ben]

In case you missed it, this is from a "broad range of scientific research."

Yeah, and that's true. There are a ton of different studies that show Rudy G is taking all the credit for a complicated social change that he had no influence off.

[bigdruid]

This is not BS - why, just look at the low levels of violent crime in Antarctica, and the almost nonexistence of lead paints in that part of the world. Coincidence? I think not.
So, I'm confused. Are you saying there's no correlation between lead paint and social effects? Or are you just arguing with the reporters' conclusion that the New York Miracle had nothing to do with Giuliani?

[Fugitive]

We need more data. Let's secretly reintroduce all the lead and see if everyone goes nuts again.

[Anti-Bunny]

We need more data. Let's secretly reintroduce all the lead and see if everyone goes nuts again.
Maybe it could be administered via the interwebs? MAYBE IT ALREADY HAS BEEN?! That would explain a few things.

[JeffL]

So, I'm confused. Are you saying there's no correlation between lead paint and social effects? Or are you just arguing with the reporters' conclusion that the New York Miracle had nothing to do with Giuliani?

The latter. Go look at the statistics in the types of violent crime reductions that occurred in that time frame and come to your own conclusions as to whether reductions in lead paint was the primary cause for those reductions. Perhaps you'll conclude that it was - I find it hard to believe.

[JeffL]

Start questioning, Lackey.

DAMN!!!!!!

[JeffL]

Little did I know that jeff lackey, resident QT3 scientist, could immediately asses the validity of years of research without any special knowledge in the field. I'll remember this when I go for a patent, it'll save time.

Perhaps serving on a scientific committe for 4 years looking at the impact of environmental chemicals (not just lead) in urban areas, specifically in the Detroit area, and serving as one of the members who specifically judged where some of our national and state money went wrt professors and other labs submitting applications for funding helped me a little in terms of some of the specifics.

That, of course, does not mean that I have any ability to have an opinion on this, and certainly not that of someone able to google up a few articles. But thanks for asking before the smartass attack.

[bigdruid]

The latter. Go look at the statistics in the types of violent crime reductions that occurred in that time frame and come to your own conclusions as to whether reductions in lead paint was the primary cause for those reductions. Perhaps you'll conclude that it was - I find it hard to believe.
Then you should take issue with the reporting, rather than casting aspersions on the underlying science, no?:


now I have people like this that make me cringe at being a scientist.


Edit: I looked again, and I still can't tell if the Nevin (the scientist) is making the anti-giuliani claims, or just the WP reporter. Given that there aren't any actual quotes from Nevin that deal with anything but generalities, I'm assuming the latter.

[JeffL]

Then you should take issue with the reporting, rather than casting aspersions on the underlying science, no?:

That's actually a valid point. I have seen some of these guys, however, who are economists or in such fields, who make their living publishing papers and giving talks by taking broad correlations and then trying to make very specific conclusions on specific situations without the required validation data. So I'm probably more skeptical than I might otherwise be when I see a headline, particularly one with a political point, such as this. But your comment is valid.

[Jason McCullough]

Perhaps serving on a scientific committe for 4 years looking at the impact of environmental chemicals (not just lead) in urban areas, specifically in the Detroit area, and serving as one of the members who specifically judged where some of our national and state money went wrt professors and other labs submitting applications for funding helped me a little in terms of some of the specifics.

That, of course, does not mean that I have any ability to have an opinion on this, and certainly not that of someone able to google up a few articles. But thanks for asking before the smartass attack.

I suppose you could have described why you're qualified to argue from authority when you made comment.

[Linoleum]

I suppose you could have described why you're qualified to argue from authority when you made comment.

It's not his job to keep you from putting your foot in your mouth.

[Jason McCullough]

It's putting my foot in my mouth to be snarky when he says the guy's embarassing with nothing to back it up?

[John Merva]

It's putting my foot in my mouth to be snarky when he says the guy's embarassing with nothing to back it up?

On this occasion Jason, yes it was.

[dannimal]

No, the putting your foot in your mouth is just instantly assuming he has nothing to back it up and resorting to snark instead of asking "Hey, why do you take that stance?" or something.

[Jason McCullough]

Based on him saying nothing more than "I'm a scientist!"? Then following it up as a media portrayal problem with it being Guilani-related, rather than a problem with the science?

[Sidd_Budd]

Based on him saying nothing more than "I'm a scientist!"? Then following it up as a media portrayal problem with it being Guilani-related, rather than a problem with the science?
Come on, Jason. Jeff's one of the most reasonable posters in P&R, and most regulars here know he's got a Ph.D. and lots of industry experience in chemistry. My last chemistry class was a while ago, but I remember lead was in the table of elements back then. Given that neither you nor he have read the original study, you're not willing to concede his quick judgment is based on earlier similar stuff he's come across? You get the benefit of the doubt on stuff related to Microsoft and houses with weird construction, but props go to Jeff on stuff related to chemistry.

If Jeff doubts this research, wouldn't it be an exercise in good critical thinking to ask him for more information, since he may know about it? Even if he doesn't know specifics, he'd likely be a good source on where to find information on *both* sides of the lead/violent crime debate, because the original article linked in the blog is incredibly one-sided.

Jeff's suspicious of a third-hand interpretation of a study filtered through an online news article filtered through a personal blog. Scientists are supposed to be skeptical of peer-reviewed research -- how often do you think additional errors and distortions occur when non-experts review & summarize complex issues? I agree that Jeff should have been more rigorous in his critique, but Jeff's credentials, IMO, lend weight to a cursory judgment of this work.

Personally, I'm suspicious whenever a single factor is trumpeted as the magic solution to a complex issue. I'm going to need a lot of convincing that lead, Giuliani's policies, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster was the crucial impetus behind the reduction in NY crime. Especially since all rational people know the increased safety was primarily due to Fresh Prince of Bel-Air's cancellation at the end of the '95-'96 season.

[JeffL]

It's putting my foot in my mouth to be snarky when he says the guy's embarassing with nothing to back it up?

OK, Jason, you know that I actually respect you and your opinions, even when I argue with you vehemently. Let's start with that foundation.

Don't you think it is ironic that you immediately attacked me with a kneejerk reaction when what you attacked me for was what you assumed was a kneejerk reaction? ;)

Here's the deal, based on a lot of work in this field, although I was on the committees as a manager and not an actual scrape the wall and run the GC-MS scientist: yes, children who ingest lead at certain significant levels (as well as arsenic, Zn, and other metals) have been shown, in general, to have a higher incidence of certain types of behavioral problems. It doesn't mean they all become criminals any more than everyone who grows up in the slums or the inner cities become drug pushers. There is data that says, in general, a higher population of people ingesting lead results in a statistically higher incidence of violence.

But, when you read the referees' comments on peer reviewed published papers in this area, you find that there are complicating issues to drawing general conclusions. For example, it is difficult to find urban areas in which environmental cleanups have been done in which other things have not also been done to improve the area and situation for those people. For example, in areas of Detroit in which the crappy peeling lead paints and other enviromental "bad things" were identified and action was taken to clean up and improve, there are also simultaneous programs for drug abuse education, improvements in getting kids into school, help for poor families, etc. It became quite convoluted and while you can say "hey, we removed the heavy metals and poisons from the environment and the violent crime in that area went down significantly!" is true, its not so clear on cause and effect. And while you can point out studies in less urban areas (say, Antartica since I brought that up as a joke and someone said there is real data there) the problem is that the nature of violent crime is probably quite different than what it is in urban NYC.

The bottom line is that, when you look at the crime stats in NYC and the types of violent crimes that occur and what dropped, and you see, for example, violent crime related to the drug trade, gangs, etc. and programs set to to go after that, it's a very complex situation to determine which violent crimes were reduced by effective programs and which due to other circumstances. To then see someone attack Guiliani (who I am not a fan of, btw, as you can see in other posts) and try to use "science" as the basis, and try to reduce NYC's incredibly complex violent crime situation to something so simple as reducing lead, just makes me shake my head.

And I may be wrong.

[Tyjenks]

McCullough makes me want to club baby seals out of spite.

I just googled "knee-jerk reaction" and Jason McCullough was mentioned prominently in 28% of the links.

[Houngan]

Well, my lead level is in the low 40s, so either you two kiss and make up, or I'm going to commit crimes on your asses.

H.

[Jason McCullough]

Note I didn't actually say I think the theory is true. I have no idea, I'm not an expert in the field.

I'm supposed to seriously respond to this?

This is not BS - why, just look at the low levels of violent crime in Antarctica, and the almost nonexistence of lead paints in that part of the world. Coincidence? I think not.

By the way, this isn't some hairbrained attack to discredit Guiliani. In case you missed it, this is from a "broad range of scientific research." I would guess that the reason the mob was so effectively taken apart was that those guys just weren't getting their normal allotment of lead.

Sheesh. First I have people like Pat Robertson that make me cringe at being a Christian, now I have people like this that make me cringe at being a scientist. There better not be any wacko flight sim fanatics out there or my whole life will be in question! ;)

If jeff had responded with the later post that actually has content, I wouldn't have said a thing. The above, however, reads like junkscience.com.