Will the Wii have the largest installed base by the end of the year?

[MyNameIsWill]

Apparently, the console has already sold (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii#System_sales) 8.1 million units. Compare this to the Xbox 360's 11.6 million and PS3's 3.6 million. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3#Sales_and_pricing)

The Wii looks like it's going to be a huge holiday gift item. Do you think it'll be enough to close the 3.5 million gap between it and the Xbox 360?

[Ben Sones]

I would have chosen "maybe," had it been an option. A lot depends on what Microsoft does with pricing. Sans a 360 price drop, I think they could pull it off, though it would probably be close. With one, probably not.

[Jazar]

The Wii looks like it's going to be a huge holiday gift item.

For this reason alone it will surpass all other consoles this year. The demand has kept up with the system throughout the year, and I have no doubt when the holidays arrive the Wii craze (with Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros) will hit insanity levels.

[Matthew Gallant]

I think it will. It's inevitable, but by the end of the year? To me, Halo 3 is the question mark, not the price of the console. Halo 3 will either sell five million copies or ten million copies. If it sells five, that's not enough of a bump in new consoles and Wii will surpass. Ten and it's a horse race.

[AaronSofaer]

PS2, hello?

[routlaw]

I would have chosen maybe as well. Wii supply issues are still around and will only get worse as the holiday rush kicks in, and Microsoft moving their price point down to get more holiday sales could really lift sales in the US and Europe.

The main reason that the Wii has caught up so fast to the 360 has been Japan, where it sells well and the 360 has done very poorly.

[DeathMonkey]

I think it will. It's inevitable, but by the end of the year? To me, Halo 3 is the question mark, not the price of the console. Halo 3 will either sell five million copies or ten million copies. If it sells five, that's not enough of a bump in new consoles and Wii will surpass. Ten and it's a horse race.

IIRC, Gears of War sold a great many copies but there wasn't a significant bump in hardware sales. I wonder how many people who don't already have 360s will buy one for Halo 3. (I don't have one and I loves me some Halo mp.)

[Matthew Gallant]

IIRC, Gears of War sold a great many copies but there wasn't a significant bump in hardware sales.
It did sell a lot of copies, but not nearly as many as Halo 3 will. The only question is whether it will sell only twice as many copies or three times as many.

[Charles]

I'm pretty sure the Wii will take first spot. The only wildcard is Nintendo ever actually, you know, meeting demand. But yeah, at this point it's pretty much inevitable. Which is unfortunate, for reasons I've mentioned in other threads.

[Jason Cross]

IIRC, Gears of War sold a great many copies but there wasn't a significant bump in hardware sales. I wonder how many people who don't already have 360s will buy one for Halo 3. (I don't have one and I loves me some Halo mp.)

There was, but it was also holiday rush time, so it's hard to say if they were sold specifically due to Gears or not.

I'd say if Microsoft drops the 360 price by $100 in plenty of time for Holiday sales (by mid-November), and Nintendo does not, they'll hold the overall lead. The games lineup for the 360 is just crazy strong from Sept through the holiday. If they hold off on a 360 price drop or if it's only like $50, I think Nintendo stands a very good chance of pulling ahead.

The PS3 has no chance at all of overtaking by the end of the year.

[nixon66]

PS2, hello?


If Nintendo can get their supply issues sorted out by the holiday season, Grandma isn't going to pick up a PS2 for Billy or Janey. Granny has heard alllll about this cool new system and will spend a bit more for her grandkids if it's in stock. And doesn't everyone already have a PS2 for the most part? New ones being sold are replacing broken previous ones, or really really late adopters at this point.

[Jazar]

Not so fast Grandma. If the PS2 drops to $100 this holiday it may very well hold the top spot. Guitar Hero 3 says hello.

[BobJustBob]

According to this article (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=26435), that 11.6 million number for the 360 is shipped, not sold. Given the disparity that usually represents, I'd like to change my answer from probably to absolutely.

[Charles]

Not so fast Grandma. If the PS2 drops to $100 this holiday it may very well hold the top spot. Guitar Hero 3 says hello.

Er, what is it right now? I got mine for $130 CDN last year before xmas. Surely it can't be more than $120 USD right now.

[Jazar]

Er, what is it right now? I got mine for $130 CDN last year before xmas. Surely it can't be more than $120 USD right now.

http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product%5Fid=020245

$129.99

[Sidd_Budd]

Maybe I'm unclear on the terminology, but if "installed base" means "number of homes with the system," none of the next gen systems will have the largest by the end of the year. I think the PS2 is in at least 100 million households worldwide -- nothing's going to top that in 2007.

If you limit the question to the three next-gen systems, I'm confident the Wii will be largest in the U.S. by the end of the year. I don't know enough about worldwide markets to judge.

[Mike Cathcart]

Probably by the end of October.

[Shadarr]

Are there any PS2 games in the pipe besides the Guitar Hero songpacks? I would love it if the top two consoles of this generation were the Wii and PS2. Screw spending $400 for a console and $60 for games.

[Igor Muravyev]

It all depends on which games come out this year. If Super Smash Bros Brawl comes out, I'd say the Wii. If Halo 3 comes out, I'd say the 360. If both come out, well... no clue.

[Gaming-Module]

I just want to say how amazing this whole state of affairs is. It seems like just yesterday that the PSP was on the horizon and Nintendo's GBA was looking like it would be crushed, and never you mind that "Double Screen" or whatever it's called. Meanwhile the Gamecube was being surpassed by the X-Box, a freshman effort by Microsoft.

I can still hear the echo of hundreds and thousands of fanboys crying, "Go third party, Nintendo!" like it was in the company's best interest to do so.

[Dave Long]

According to this article (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=26435), that 11.6 million number for the 360 is shipped, not sold. Given the disparity that usually represents, I'd like to change my answer from probably to absolutely.
The Sales Age gang at GAF has it pegged at about 9.5 million 360s actually sold through to consumers. The Microsoft shipped number is not representative of their total sales to human beings in homes.

On the other hand, Nintendo has always reported sales to consumers so that means it's only about a 1.5 million difference at the moment and it's likely that Nintendo will have surpassed Microsoft by September or October at the latest unless the trend changes dramatically in the next three months.

With Microsoft finally admitting that the 360 is flawed without actually saying it in so many words, it's likely that sales will stay the same or possibly even decrease for the 360 with people now aware that what's on shelves may be just as unreliable as the ones people already own and are sending in for repairs.

[Charles]

With Microsoft finally admitting that the 360 is flawed without actually saying it in so many words, it's likely that sales will stay the same or possibly even decrease for the 360 with people now aware that what's on shelves may be just as unreliable as the ones people already own and are sending in for repairs.

That's offset though by knowing that they won't be screwed if they get one.

[Qenan]

Based on the fact that I hear discussion and interest in the Wii from more friends and acquaintences, and little to none for the 360... I'd say it will probably pass the 360 this year. It's not a box I'm real excited about, but I'm not representative.

[MyNameIsWill]

PS2, hello?
It's implied that I'm only referring to the three new gen consoles. :P

[forgeforsaken]

I think the Wii really appeals to the non tech, not just the non hardcore gamers. I work at tech company that is not games related in anyway, and most of the engineers/support/qa/it folks are interested predominantly in the 360 (or own one) and somewhat the ps3. Very few of them seem interested in the Wii, now the folks on the sales/marketing side of the house, that's a different story. There they are far more interested in the Wii.

[Draikin]

On the other hand, Nintendo has always reported sales to consumers.
Do you ever think about what you're writting ? How can they accurately track sales to consumers ? Do you remember this quarter (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/report/q1_2004.pdf) when they sold only 80k Gamecube worldwide ? (retailers overstocked them thinking Mario Sunshine would sell the console en masse)

MS and Nintendo use the same "sold to retailers" numbers ("out of factory" for Sony).

[noun]

It's still anyone's game.

Everyone wants a Wii, but there aren't any games for the damn thing yet, at least, not games specifically designed for the new controller.

360 should be resting comfortably, but their hardware issues are holding them back. The new replacement warranty is an excellent step in the right direction, but what are they doing with new units?

Sony has fucked their PS3 launch up worse than anything that has ever gone before. Future printings of dictionaries will include the Sony logo next to "fucked up". However, a decent price drop, some exclusive games and they just MIGHT gain some significant ground on MS and Nintendo. (Except for the DS. Ain't nobody stopping that thing).

Let's see what happens after Christmas. I think a clear winner will emerge by then.

[Ben]

it's likely that sales will stay the same or possibly even decrease for the 360 with people now aware that what's on shelves may be just as unreliable as the ones people already own and are sending in for repairs.

Do you ever just boggle at the shit that you say? A better warranty(by a factor of 3!!!) will decrease sales. Because people will know that because of the better warranty the product is unreliable. GTA4 and Halo 3 might be coming out, but they also have a THREE YEAR WARRANTY. Better keep my money. Back when it was a one year warranty, well, that's a sale. But this warranty period that is three times as long on the same product?

[TomChick]

It's a valid hypothesis, Ben. Does MS's warranty extension say to people 'Our 360 has built-in problems' or does it say 'We're looking out for you even more now'?

I don't know the answer, and I'm sure it depends on who you ask. But for most of us who've been following the issue -- and particularly those of us who've had to deal with MS's inept CS, bullshit PR such as the interview on Dean Takahashi's blog, and screwy hardware -- the warranty extension says loud and clear that there's a problem with the 360 that's going to cost MS a lot of money and give people cause to worry whether their 360s will fail.

-Tom

[Dave Long]

Do you ever think about what you're writting ? How can they accurately track sales to consumers ? Do you remember this quarter (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/report/q1_2004.pdf) when they sold only 80k Gamecube worldwide ? (retailers overstocked them thinking Mario Sunshine would sell the console en masse)

MS and Nintendo use the same "sold to retailers" numbers ("out of factory" for Sony).
Nintendo has the most accurate retail tracking system in the industry. I always think about what I'm writing. It's what separates me from most everyone else around here who often talk out of their ass on topics like this one.

This is one piece of it.
http://www.siras.com/

We've done this before too. Search on Nintendo Retail Tracking here at Qt3 and enjoy.

Here's the funny thing... you make that post at GAF and you're likely to get banned, because everyone there KNOWS that Nintendo does accurate counts at the retail register of every unit they sell, while the other two either do not or choose not to release those numbers.

With Sony and Microsoft, you only know what they've sold into retail locations at best and what they shipped from manufacturing at worst.

[Ben]

Tom- So back when the product was just as unreliable but had a worse warranty people would want to buy it more? The equally valid other spin is that Microsoft is so confident that they've fixed the problem that they are willing to extend their warranty to an unheard of 3 years.

In the real world, most people have no idea that the 360 has reliability problems, much less that Microsoft extended the warranty. The average consumer knows that GTA4 is coming out and it won't be on their PS2.

I always think about what I'm writing.

Ha!


you make that post at GAF and you're likely to get banned, because everyone there KNOWS that Nintendo does accurate counts at the retail register of every unit they sell

That's sad. Not that he'd get banned, it's pathetic how you have this incredibly high esteem for GAF because it bans people who badmouth Nintendo's retail tracking system.

[Dave Long]

I think the Wii really appeals to the non tech, not just the non hardcore gamers. I work at tech company that is not games related in anyway, and most of the engineers/support/qa/it folks are interested predominantly in the 360 (or own one) and somewhat the ps3. Very few of them seem interested in the Wii, now the folks on the sales/marketing side of the house, that's a different story. There they are far more interested in the Wii.
Stop for a second and consider that there are far more people who fall outside of your little engineers/support/qa/it world than there are within it.

If the only people who buy 360s and PS3s are tech savvy users, and everyone else buys a Wii, then it's already all over.

[Dave Long]

So back when the product was just as unreliable but had a worse warranty people would want to buy it more? The equally valid other spin is that Microsoft is so confident that they've fixed the problem that they are willing to extend their warranty to an unheard of 3 years.

In the real world, most people have no idea that the 360 has reliability problems, much less that Microsoft extended the warranty. The average consumer knows that GTA4 is coming out and it won't be on their PS2.
Bullshit. The average consumer probably doesn't know about GTA4 at all yet.

Also, everyone in the real world knows right now, today, that the 360 has reliability problems. It was on every news broadcast across the globe. Pop it into Google News and have a blast. I had three people ask me if my 360 had failed today at work... people who have zero interest in games.

[rhinohelix]

It's a valid hypothesis, Ben. Does MS's warranty extension say to people 'Our 360 has built-in problems' or does it say 'We're looking out for you even more now'?

I don't know the answer, and I'm sure it depends on who you ask. But for most of us who've been following the issue -- and particularly those of us who've had to deal with MS's inept CS, bullshit PR such as the interview on Dean Takahashi's blog, and screwy hardware -- the warranty extension says loud and clear that there's a problem with the 360 that's going to cost MS a lot of money and give people cause to worry whether their 360s will fail.

-Tom
I think it does both. Or put in a different way, I think Microsoft was concerned people would think one (my 360 might fail) regardless. The warranty extension might make people make people worry about something happening, true, but this way if something happens they know they are covered, whereas before people were just dangling in the wind.

Microsoft is just accepting the reality that word of mouth has the 360 as failure-prone, regardless of what they do in the short-term to resolve the issue. The warranty at least gives people the feeling that MS will stand behind their product.

[Ben]

The average consumer probably doesn't know about GTA4 at all yet.

So the average consumer is unaware of the latest installment in one of the ~3 most popular franchises?

Also, everyone in the real world knows right now, today, that the 360 has reliability problems. It was on every news broadcast across the globe.
emphasis mine

You're doing the same thing you accuse forge of doing. There are a lot of people who fall outside your GAF-reading Nintendo fanboy clique, Dave. It's a unreliable game console, it's not breaking news on CNN.

[Dave Long]

Front page of CNN.com right now. It's been on TV today on CNN, FoxNews, etc.

http://home.comcast.net/~davelong/CNNBreaking.JPG

Also, on FoxNews front page right now...

http://home.comcast.net/~davelong/FoxBreaking.JPG

[Andrew Mayer]

You're doing the same thing you accuse forge of doing. There are a lot of people who fall outside your GAF-reading Nintendo fanboy clique, Dave. It's a unreliable game console, it's not breaking news on CNN.

It was on the front page of the San Jose/Mercury news.

Biased I know, but still: Front Page!

[Dave Long]

It was on the front page of the San Jose/Mercury news.

Biased I know, but still: Front Page!
I got it covered. But thanks. :)

[Ben]

So would you also say, "Martian Dust Storm Could Destroy NASA Rovers" or "TV anchor involved with L.A. mayor taken off the air" are also items that everyone in the real world is aware of?

The far more interesting story is how all the anti-Microsoft people somehow managed to develop the exact same incredibly retarded negative spin in response to the warranty extension. Is there like a newsletter?

[forgeforsaken]

Stop for a second and consider that there are far more people who fall outside of your little engineers/support/qa/it world than there are within it.

If the only people who buy 360s and PS3s are tech savvy users, and everyone else buys a Wii, then it's already all over.

Stop being an ass, I already knew that there were more tech unsavvy than savvy people, savvy? Where do you even get from my post that I was implying otherwise anyways?

BTW You also have to consider what percentages of each subgroup that would actually buy a consol btw, one having stronger appeal to one demographic in itself is meaningless without also knowing the console adoption rate for each demographic.

[dannimal]

Nintendo recalls the Famicom and it's an unprecedented move (even though the recall was just of units unsold on shelves, but paired with free repairs of sold units). Microsoft extends the 360 warranty to 3 years, offers to reimburse people for repairs already paid for, and it's "bad news for sales because everyone in the real world knows the 360 is damaged goods".

What. Ever.

My parents had no idea about the 360, problems, or GTA4. They exist happily in the real world. Calling out "Hyperbole!" and then following it up with your own is probably not the best debate technique.

As to the Wii passing the 360 by 12/31, it depends entirely on two things (IMO): If the price drops on the 360 AND if Nintendo can get enough units into stores. The 360 outsold the Wii from launch through the end of 2006 (well, the 360 numbers include all of November, but unless they sold over a million units from 11/1 through Wii Launch Day it's still true), simply because Nintendo couldn't get enough units into stores. They haven't shown any interest or ability to increase that number a meaningful amount so far.

If Generic Adult goes into a store to buy a Wii for Generic Child this holiday season, and can't because there isn't one to buy, but can buy a 360 (again, especially if it's cheaper than it is now), that's going to make it harder for the Wii pass the 360. Not impossible, because not everyone will just buy a 360 instead of a Wii (and probably, a minority will. But every one of those hurts more than just not buying a Wii).

Nintendo does accurate counts at the retail register of every unit they sell, while the other two either do not or choose not to release those numbers.

Just like you'd find if you did that search you crow about, there's a perfectly logical reason for not needing to release the count of units sold at retail: It doesn't much matter to shareholders or financial reports. It's not like retailers are getting shipments of consoles free and then paying the Microsoft/Nintendo/Sony once the console sells and leaves the store.

It only matters if sales at retail are so bad that retailers curtail restock orders (I'm looking at you, PS3). 360 sales haven't been that bad, and it's assumed that what's in stores (that is, reported as sold to retailers but not to an end customer) will be sold in the near future.

So I'd say maybe. I won't be stunned if it happens, and I won't be stunned if it doesn't. I'm more interested in when the Wii passes the 360 in the US/North America rather than worldwide.

[RickH]

Do you ever just boggle at the shit that you say? A better warranty(by a factor of 3!!!) will decrease sales. Because people will know that because of the better warranty the product is unreliable. GTA4 and Halo 3 might be coming out, but they also have a THREE YEAR WARRANTY. Better keep my money. Back when it was a one year warranty, well, that's a sale. But this warranty period that is three times as long on the same product?

But it's not a true 3 year warranty. The extra time is only for a certain type of failure.

[MyNameIsWill]

bullshit PR such as the interview on Dean Takahashi's blog
-Tom

I bet that guy feels really silly now.

[Dave Long]

Stop being an ass, I already knew that there were more tech unsavvy than savvy people, savvy? Where do you even get from my post that I was implying otherwise anyways?
If you knew that, why did you even bother to say something about it? It's worthless commentary. What was its bearing on this thread?

A recall was unprecedented until Nintendo did it for the Famicom. Instead of saying, "If it breaks, send it in." they went ahead and took every system back. Microsoft is saying, "We think your unit you have now will last three years and if it doesn't, we'll fix it free of charge." What they aren't telling anyone is if they can fix them and have them continue working after they've fixed them.

I've already said that it's great they're doing this. However, it's still pretty far away from fixing the problem. The ones on the shelves right now are as prone to failure as the ones bought on launch day. You're playing russian roulette with your entertainment dollars. Until that changes, many people are going to wait, and pretty much everyone who looks at any form of news will know about the problems. I'll cut out and post the newspaper clippings tomorrow if need be. I'm sure there are others across the country who can easily do the same.

dannimal, I bet your parents will know by Monday all about it. A 1 billion dollar charge against Microsoft is big news.

[forgeforsaken]

If you knew that, why did you even bother to say something about it? It's worthless commentary. What was its bearing on this thread?

Because I thought it was interesting on the appeal of the consoles, as it goes beyond the usual hard core v. casual gamer take that we see.

[Draikin]

Nintendo has the most accurate retail tracking system in the industry. I always think about what I'm writing. It's what separates me from most everyone else around here who often talk out of their ass on topics like this one.

This is one piece of it.
http://www.siras.com/

We've done this before too. Search on Nintendo Retail Tracking here at Qt3 and enjoy.

Here's the funny thing... you make that post at GAF and you're likely to get banned, because everyone there KNOWS that Nintendo does accurate counts at the retail register of every unit they sell, while the other two either do not or choose not to release those numbers.

With Sony and Microsoft, you only know what they've sold into retail locations at best and what they shipped from manufacturing at worst.
You're seriously fucked up.

Nintendo quarterly report April-2003 to June-2003 (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/report/q1_2004.pdf): 80,000 Gamecube sold worldwide

GC NPD April 2003: 101,000
GC NPD May 2003: 84,408
GC NPD June 2003: 124,080
GC NPD April-June 2003: 309,488

It should be a red alert for the left side of your brain.

[JD]

I would have chosen maybe as well. Wii supply issues are still around and will only get worse as the holiday rush kicks in, and Microsoft moving their price point down to get more holiday sales could really lift sales in the US and Europe.

The main reason that the Wii has caught up so fast to the 360 has been Japan, where it sells well and the 360 has done very poorly.
The Xbox 360 isn't doing well in Europe either outside the UK. To name two examples: by the end of Q1 Nintendo had sold about 220,000 units in Germany altogether. The installed hardware base of the 360 - launched 13 months ahead of the Wii - was 262.000. Wii software sales accounted for 4.7 percent market share, 360 software was 6 percent in Q1. (As Chris Nahr pointed out already in some other thread, titles like Gears or Crackdown aren't readily available here, which doesn't exactly help things.)

As for French Q1 stats: http://xbox-mag.net/ventes-de-consoles-en-france---nintendo-domine--microsoft-peine__13097.html

-Julian

[Hanzii]

I think Wii sales will slow down and PS3 sales will pick up - this generation won't have a clear winner, but at least Nintendo with their healthier business model will be making money.

Both Sony and Microsoft needs to 'win' or have 50 million+ consoles sold to start seeing a profit (numbers from ass), while Nintendo is making money now.

But the Wii is still an expensive toy and a lot of those interested in Wii Sports (and nothing else) allready own the system.

[JD]

But the Wii is still an expensive toy and a lot of those interested in Wii Sports (and nothing else) allready own the system.
Fils-Aime or Harrison mentioned not too long ago, that some research on brand awareness showed that 60 percent of the people older than 30 years (I think) don't even know Wii yet. Which is why they'll probably still use a game like Wii Sports to market the system during the next holiday season. So, the potential doesn't seem exactly maxed out at this point.

-Julian

[Hanzii]

Sure, that might happen. But it might also be that those 60% just isn't interested at all (every story about the Wii in the mainstream media just goes right by them) no matter how fun/casual Wii Sports is.

99,99% of the population in Africa don't own a next gen system yet... that doesn't mean they're an untapped market worth shooting for.

[JD]

But it might also be that those 60% just isn't interested at all (every story about the Wii in the mainstream media just goes right by them) no matter how fun/casual Wii Sports is.
Brand awareness is about knowledge, not interest. Obviously, not all of these people are potential customers. But you have to get the word out to them. And if only 3-5 percent of them then ultimately end up purchasing the product, that still would be an enormous number.

-Julian

[Hanzii]

Brand awareness is about knowledge, not interest. Obviously, not all of these people are potential customers. But you have to get the word out to them. And if only 3-5 percent of them then ultimately end up purchasing the product, that still would be an enormous number.

-Julian

Sure, but if you examine brand awareness some people might not have awareness of a brand because marketing haven't been good enough or you haven't reached them yet. It might also be that your brand just have no bearing on their life and even though they have been exposed to your marketing, it just haven't stuck.

I'm not saying your numbers are irellevant, just that there's more than one explanation for those numbers and of course Nintendo would pick the one that point at a yet untapped market - I believe that market is smaller than Nintendo and Dave Long does.

[MyNameIsWill]

I believe that market is smaller than Nintendo and Dave Long does.

People thought the market for a "last-gen" console with waggle controls was smaller than Nintendo and Dave Long thought it was...

[Flowers]

I am thinking that the anticipated Xbox360 titles will provide a substantial boost, and that the Wii could suffer slightly if Smash Brothers and SMGalaxy get bumped back.

If the Harry Potter game is really good, instead of just being a shit movie tie in, the wand action could move some units.

I know that hype drives a lot of console sales, but I think that for people who already own one console, it comes down to the library.

[RobotPants]

Here's the funny thing... you make that post at GAF and you're likely to get banned

Wow, seriously? Besides the fact that you're again using the whole "But GAF says..." as part of your argument, you're also saying they ban people for disagreeing with popular opinion? Surely you're exaggerating.

[Kevin Grey]

You're seriously fucked up.

Nintendo quarterly report April-2003 to June-2003 (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/report/q1_2004.pdf): 80,000 Gamecube sold worldwide

GC NPD April 2003: 101,000
GC NPD May 2003: 84,408
GC NPD June 2003: 124,080
GC NPD April-June 2003: 309,488

It should be a red alert for the left side of your brain.


I don't think you're reading that Nintendo report right- I believe that's income in terms of millions of yen (says so in the paragraph above those numbers), not unit sales. Especially considering that the Cube wasn't the only product they had out at the time- the GBA was out and selling huge.

[Drunkagain]

Wow, seriously? Besides the fact that you're again using the whole "But GAF says..." as part of your argument, you're also saying they ban people for disagreeing with popular opinion? Surely you're exaggerating.

Fucking GAF! That place just epitomizes all the worst aspects of internet discussion boards. I don't know how anyone can stand to bother with that place.

[tomatoeblue]

I don't think you're reading that Nintendo report right- I believe that's income in terms of millions of yen (says so in the paragraph above those numbers), not unit sales. Especially considering that the Cube wasn't the only product they had out at the time- the GBA was out and selling huge.

Yah, I'm having real difficulty understanding how millions of yen is directly comparable to units sold?? Unless you have some calculations to the Cost of Goods sold, currency translation, and other calculations, etc that is not on that pdf that you linked to?

[Dave Long]

You're seriously fucked up.

Nintendo quarterly report April-2003 to June-2003 (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/report/q1_2004.pdf): 80,000 Gamecube sold worldwide

GC NPD April 2003: 101,000
GC NPD May 2003: 84,408
GC NPD June 2003: 124,080
GC NPD April-June 2003: 309,488

It should be a red alert for the left side of your brain.
As others have noted, you need to re-read your posted PDF.

[Dave Long]

Wow, seriously? Besides the fact that you're again using the whole "But GAF says..." as part of your argument, you're also saying they ban people for disagreeing with popular opinion? Surely you're exaggerating.
GAF bans people who are stupid. Draikin would have either been banned or laughed off the board after that post because his facts are all wrong. It had nothing to do with popular opinion. There was no opinion in his post.

People were a lot nicer here.

There are many posters at GAF who are far more knowledgeable about the console industry than 98% of the people who post here at Qt3. People here could learn a lot by paying attention there. People in the industry and at major news publications are reading (and often posting at) GAF, and with very good reason.

[Ben]

GAF bans people who are stupid.

I think of one individual who neatly disproves this theory.


There are many posters at GAF who love Nintendo as much as I do.

About every third or fourth post you make you have to throw in a ridiculous "GAF is so much better than Qt3" jibe, generally after someone calls you on something ridiculous you said.

[Midnight Son]

I swear I still haven't actually seen a Wii in stock at Target or Wallyworld. Who the hell is snagging them as they come off the truck?

[forgeforsaken]

I read and post at both GAF and QT3 and I'd just like to say that I once again disagree with Mr. Long.

[polar boar]

Nintendo recalls the Famicom and it's an unprecedented move (even though the recall was just of units unsold on shelves, but paired with free repairs of sold units). Microsoft extends the 360 warranty to 3 years, offers to reimburse people for repairs already paid for, and it's "bad news for sales because everyone in the real world knows the 360 is damaged goods".

Extended warranty is a far freaking cry from fixing the problem. The only thing the extended warranty says is that while Microsoft can't be bothered to prevent most consoles from defecting, they'll gladly guide you down a 3-year journey of frustration.

Nintendo's recall says: "It used to be broken, but now it's fixed, so you can safely buy it!"
Microsoft's waranty says: "You're entering a world of pain."

[Matthew Gallant]

A world of pain's not so bad.

http://www.truemeaningoflife.com/images/worldofpain.jpg

[MrLipid]

This item appeared in the New York Times this morning:

For Mr. Riccitiello personally, that means speaking both as E.A.’s chief executive and as an industry leader. “We’re starting to be an art form and can have a massive cultural impact globally similar to television in the ’50s,” he said. “But we could also become ham radio. We could go down the path where we’re just reinforcing what we’ve done in the past, and we need to reinvent ourselves.”

He goes on to say: “I’ve been doing this test, and it’s fun, though it’s embarrassing,” Mr. Riccitiello said. “I’ve been giving speeches or presentations to six or seven thousand of our employees around the world, and I say, ‘All right, raise your hand if someone close to you has said the reason they don’t buy our games is because they are too hard to play.’ I get 100 percent, maybe 95. And then I say, ‘Leave your hand up if you don’t buy our games besides the one you work on because they are too hard to play.’ Seventy-five percent stay up.”

He delivers the punch line with a rueful laugh: “What does that tell you? Our games are too hard to play.”

--------

I'll leave it to others to speculate on what this may mean in terms of holiday console sales this year.

[Hanzii]

That EA hires too many nongamers?








(which explains a lot)

[polar boar]

Or that the employees think Riccitiello is giving them a way to admit they don't play EA games without having to tell him to his face that this is because EA games suck?

[Ben]

The only thing the extended warranty says is that while Microsoft can't be bothered to prevent most consoles from defecting, they'll gladly guide you down a 3-year journey of frustration.

Just for shits and giggles, I want you to try to apply this brand of retard "logic" to a hypothetical inversed situation. If Microsoft had launched with a 3 year warranty and just announced that they were cutting it to 1 year, would that drive sales upward?

[Draikin]

I don't think you're reading that Nintendo report right- I believe that's income in terms of millions of yen (says so in the paragraph above those numbers), not unit sales. Especially considering that the Cube wasn't the only product they had out at the time- the GBA was out and selling huge.
What's so hard to understand ?
http://omoikane.minstrum.net/tendo.png
Nintendo even boasted one year later about their "spectacular" result compared to 2003.
Shipments of the GameCube during the quarter stood at 650,000 units, compared with 80,000 units a year previously
GAF bans people who are stupid. Draikin would have either been banned or laughed off the board after that post because his facts are all wrong. It had nothing to do with popular opinion. There was no opinion in his post.
I'm permabanned many times from GAF. I used to be pretty much immune to ban since I was french and had an anime avatar (cant be cooler than that on GAF).

Guess who started the sales craze at GAF 6 or 7 years ago ? a smart nintendo fan nicknamed "Garbage Scow". He left a few years ago: too many idiots invaded GAF (thanks to Evilore).

[polar boar]

Just for shits and giggles, I want you to try to apply this brand of retard "logic" to a hypothetical inversed situation. If Microsoft had launched with a 3 year warranty and just announced that they were cutting it to 1 year, would that drive sales upward?

What the hell is this? Are you saying Microsoft is upping the warranty as nothing more than a pleasantry to its customers? Not based on observable large quantities of breakdowns and consumer outrage?

[Ben]

What the hell is this?

Reason.


Are you saying Microsoft is upping the warranty as nothing more than a pleasantry to its customers? Not based on observable large quantities of breakdowns and consumer outrage?

That's not even a very good try at putting words in my mouth.

If Microsoft had a 3 year warranty and dropped it to a one year, would that increase consumer confidence and be a good sign?

[polar boar]

If Microsoft had a 3 year warranty and dropped it to a one year, would that increase consumer confidence and be a good sign?

Not if there were hardware problems on a large scale. Conversely, the warranty increase would've been awesome if there weren't any hardware problems on a large scale.

That clear enough for ya?

[RobotPants]

GAF bans people who are stupid. Draikin would have either been banned or laughed off the board after that post because his facts are all wrong. It had nothing to do with popular opinion. There was no opinion in his post.

People were a lot nicer here.

There are many posters at GAF who are far more knowledgeable about the console industry than 98% of the people who post here at Qt3. People here could learn a lot by paying attention there. People in the industry and at major news publications are reading (and often posting at) GAF, and with very good reason.

I still think you're exaggerating. If you aren't, I can't believe anyone would ever frequent a forum like that. Ban people for getting facts wrong and chastise them for not being as knowledgeable about the industry. Sounds fun.

[Jason Becker]

I've just read my comedic post for the day...

[Dave Long]

What's so hard to understand ?
http://omoikane.minstrum.net/tendo.png
Nintendo even boasted one year later about their "spectacular" result compared to 2003.


I'm permabanned many times from GAF. I used to be pretty much immune to ban since I was french and had an anime avatar (cant be cooler than that on GAF).

Guess who started the sales craze at GAF 6 or 7 years ago ? a smart nintendo fan nicknamed "Garbage Scow". He left a few years ago: too many idiots invaded GAF (thanks to Evilore).
Gee... permabanned from GAF. That explains a lot.

Anyway, I wasn't getting that page when I looked at the document because I didn't have Japanese fonts installed. I see it now.

You're confusing the sales through retail with the sales to retail. I'm talking about retail tracking of total unit sales and you're talking about the sales to the retailers.

In that financial statement, Nintendo is disclosing to investors the amount of Gamecubes sold to retailers. When Nintendo gives the LTD number there, that refers to total sales to retailers as well. They always disclose that number to investors.

HOWEVER, when Nintendo talks to the news organizations and discusses the total number of units sold, it's always the number they've sold to consumers. This is easily verified by the NPD number you show there because that's typical of what happens. Nintendo reports their sales through retail to consumers to the press but discloses the sales to retail to investors in the financial statements like that.

Sony and Microsoft only ever talk about what they've shipped whether they know what they've sold at retail or not.

[Rollory]

This item appeared in the New York Times this morning:

For Mr. Riccitiello personally, that means speaking both as E.A.’s chief executive and as an industry leader.

Wait, what? EA rehired Johnny Boy? I thought they learned their lesson after the dot-com debacle.

I'll leave it to others to speculate on what this may mean in terms of holiday console sales this year.

It means Riccitiello's a goddamned idiot, and I say that as someone who stood at his shoulder doing my best to help him through how to play our game for the better part of an hour one day. I've seen 3-year-olds with more patience and familiarity with a keyboard. Him thinking something is too hard is absolutely meaningless.

the employees think Riccitiello is giving them a way to admit they don't play EA games without having to tell him to his face that this is because EA games suck?

Yeah, that.

[Dave Long]

Goddamned idiots are a huge market. What game were you demoing?

[Brakara]

I voted probably.

Wii will surpass 360 by the end of August, or early September. The big question is how many consoles Nintendo can get out there in the Holiday season. If they continue to just ship the same number of Wiis as they've been doing so far, then Microsoft has a decent chance to reclaim the largest installed base.

[Lizard_King]

You can say a lot of things about EA games. Particularly challenging does not spring to mind.

[MyNameIsWill]

I voted probably.

Wii will surpass 360 by the end of August, or early September. The big question is how many consoles Nintendo can get out there in the Holiday season. If they continue to just ship the same number of Wiis as they've been doing so far, then Microsoft has a decent chance to reclaim the largest installed base.
I think we'll see the number of units go up tremendously. Nintendo is pretty good at constraining supply without making it obvious. They know demand will go way up and will increase supply accordingly (though the Wii may still be hard to get into the Holidays).

[Chris Nahr]

I also think the Wii is going to beat everything and everyone this holiday season. The question is, how long will it last? Last I checked the sales for hardcore games were still at Gamecube levels, so Nintendo's traditional audience isn't growing. The Wiiplosion is supported by casual gamers. Will they really want to play the entire Brain Training series on both the DS and the Wii? Or will they suddenly discover the joys of Metroid Prime?

[intruder]

Are there any PS2 games in the pipe besides the Guitar Hero songpacks? I would love it if the top two consoles of this generation were the Wii and PS2. Screw spending $400 for a console and $60 for games.

I will probably buy one more PS2 game besides "Guitar Hero" addons:
"Smackdown vs. Raw 2008" but only because I love playing wrestling games.

Some more games coming out (notably still all 2008 sport games of EA) according to this list:

http://www.play.com/Games/PlayStation2/6-/ComingSoon.html

[Mark Asher]

I also think the Wii is going to beat everything and everyone this holiday season. The question is, how long will it last? Last I checked the sales for hardcore games were still at Gamecube levels, so Nintendo's traditional audience isn't growing. The Wiiplosion is supported by casual gamers. Will they really want to play the entire Brain Training series on both the DS and the Wii? Or will they suddenly discover the joys of Metroid Prime?

Yeah, I think the Wii will outsell everything this holiday season too. Like you, I wonder what it means in terms of game sales, though.

It's kind of funny that people complain about the PS3 library right now too -- the Wii library isn't a whole lot better. When I go to Gamestop the most compelling next gen library is for the 360, by a wide margin.

[J. Matthew Zoss]

For this reason alone it will surpass all other consoles this year. The demand has kept up with the system throughout the year, and I have no doubt when the holidays arrive the Wii craze (with Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros) will hit insanity levels.The Wii will be huge again this holiday, obviously. But I don't know if it will ever have a true "system-seller" game other than Wii Sports. It's selling to people who normally don't care about games, so I predict that even the Wii's biggest titles (Smash Bros, Mario Galaxy, Zelda, Metroid, etc.) sell well, but fail to reach sales levels of games like Gears of War, even if the Wii's install base exceeds the 360s. Despite the popularity of the hardware, I think the attach rate is gonna be a real problem for developers.

[Brakara]

The Wii will be huge again this holiday, obviously.

So Nintendo is currently constraining supplies on purpose (as others also have indicated)? Because in order to be huge this holiday, they would have to do just that. Of course, if so, they'll also have the largest installed base by the end of the year... by far.

[Kevin Grey]

It's selling to people who normally don't care about games, so I predict that even the Wii's biggest titles (Smash Bros, Mario Galaxy, Zelda, Metroid, etc.) sell well, but fail to reach sales levels of games like Gears of War, even if the Wii's install base exceeds the 360s.

Considering the numbers those franchises put up on Gamecube (SSMB, Mario, and Zelda were all 2+ million), with the expanded base on the Wii they should do very well against anything short of Halo and GTA. Metroid has never been as popular as the others so it would do well getting to a million in sales.

Especially Mario- New Super Mario Bros has put up monstrous numbers on the DS and it's similar "casual" demographic.

Haven't seen any recent domestic numbers on Gears but I would be surprised if it was that much above 2.5 million in the US (I know they are over 3 million globally).

I doubt any of Nintendo's first party offerings outsell Halo 3, though (worldwide is a different story).

[Jason Cross]

GAF bans people who are stupid.

They have a lot of banning to do.

[Kevin Grey]

So Nintendo is currently constraining supplies on purpose (as others also have indicated)? Because in order to be huge this holiday, they would have to do just that. Of course, if so, they'll also have the largest installed base by the end of the year... by far.

All of the console manufacturers do it- the Wii has the potential to do 1.5-2 million alone in just December and up to a million in November in just the US. Given their current production output is a bit over one million a month for the entire world, they have to set units aside for holiday demand.

[Charles]

GAF bans people who are stupid.

They also ban people they don't agree with. I have a friend who was banned from there due to having some inside knowledge and not 'proving' it. His knowledge went against the popular opinion of the topic, and they banned him for it.

[Kevin Grey]

They also ban people they don't agree with. I have a friend who was banned from there due to having some inside knowledge and not 'proving' it. His knowledge went against the popular opinion of the topic, and they banned him for it.

I think that's a holdover from a couple of E3's ago where there were hordes of people with "inside knowledge" spamming bullshit all over the site. I don't think popular opinion matters on there- if you profess to have the scoop on something and you or others can't back up who you are then they don't want it.

[Xemu]

I have to admit a fondness for GAF. The goofy avatars, the photoshopped GIFs, and the industry talk make it a wild and fun experience, and while the signal to noise ratio is far worse than here, there is some good "signal" there that you can't find anywhere else.

On topic... I'm certain the Wii will get swamped in software sales this holiday. Hardware... well, it depends on whether the Wii has the same fad buzz in '08 that it had in '07. I'm not convinced it will, but perhaps word of mouth and pent up demand will take it there.

I see how the DS success is well founded on a deep software lineup and key advantages for users and developers. The Wii is no DS, in my opinion. The third party support and quality of experience on the Wii caps out below its competition, though its price advantage is significant.

So I voted in the "no way the Wii makes up the difference this holiday". The 360 is clearly have a slump spring / summer, no question. But I think Halo 3 & GTA 4 (and a huge lineup in general) will do a lot to change that this holiday, even without a price cut (and especially with one).

[Charles]

I think that's a holdover from a couple of E3's ago where there were hordes of people with "inside knowledge" spamming bullshit all over the site. I don't think popular opinion matters on there- if you profess to have the scoop on something and you or others can't back up who you are then they don't want it.


Yeah well, they didn't unban him when his statements turned out to be true either.

[Brakara]

All of the console manufacturers do it- the Wii has the potential to do 1.5-2 million alone in just December and up to a million in November in just the US. Given their current production output is a bit over one million a month for the entire world, they have to set units aside for holiday demand.

And thus ignoring the current demand? Besides, it's not exactly hard for Microsoft and Sony to "constrain" supplies at the moment.

[unbongwah]

Also, everyone in the real world knows right now, today, that the 360 has reliability problems. It was on every news broadcast across the globe.
Dave, without looking at the screenshots you took, can you tell me how many headlines from CNN and Fox News you can recall? Now can you remember how many you saw yesterday? Can you even remember what the top news story was one week ago?

Getting mentioned on the front page of a major news site is Kind of a Big Deal. And I agree that people who know nothing about gaming are more likely to have heard about the 360's HW woes than GTA4, if only because that news is reported outside the usual gaming news channels (e.g., in Tech & Business sections). "Everyone in the real world knows about it," however, is a bit of a stretch. Most people don't read every link on the front page; and even if they do, they don't necessarily remember it the next day. The ones most likely to remember such things are those who pay attention to this sort of news in the first place - i.e., gamers, techheads, MS investors, market analysts, etc. - which is a subset of "everyone." :-)

Anyway, I expect the Wii to have the largest worldwide install base soon for the simple fact that the mainstream buyer is a lot more enthusiastic about it than the PS3 or X360 and they're the ones who drive market penetration. But you also have to look at different regions, too: Wii is completely pwning the X360 in Japan (quelle suprise) and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future; but the X360 has a fairly healthy lead on the Wii in the U.S. (~3M give or take a couple hundred K, depending on whose numbers you're using), which will take longer for Nintendo to eclipse. I think they'll do it, unless the X360 gets a sudden burst of interest, but it will take longer.

Moreover, I predict that sometime after the holidays, the novelty factor & cachet of the Wii will wear off and its future success will hinge largely on the quality of its games. Nintendo's done a great job getting people on board with their vision for the Wii, now they have to prove there's more to it than minigame collections.

[Kevin Grey]

Dave, without looking at the screenshots you took, can you tell me how many headlines from CNN and Fox News you can recall? Now can you remember how many you saw yesterday? Can you even remember what the top news story was one week ago?


Anecdote alert- at dinner with my parents last night my dad asked if my 360 had broken yet. He had seen the stories this past week though he misunderstood it as a recall instead of warranty extension.

And thus ignoring the current demand? Besides, it's not exactly hard for Microsoft and Sony to "constrain" supplies at the moment.

Yes. If Nintendo gets production to 1.5 million units a month, given a third each in NA, Japan, and Europe, only selling 500k units in a market in December would be a disaster.

[Brakara]

Yes. If Nintendo gets production to 1.5 million units a month, given a third each in NA, Japan, and Europe, only selling 500k units in a market in December would be a disaster.

I'm not sure I understand why. They would still have sold the same amount of units anyway, so why is that a disaster? Or is it because the compitition will sell more this Holiday if Nintendo is still supply constrained then?

[Nick Walter]

I'm not sure I understand why. They would still have sold the same amount of units anyway. Or is it because the compitition will sell more this Holiday if Nintendo is still supply constrained then?

Because the holiday sales and the summer sales are to different markets. The summer sales are to the year around gamers and those can be captured later. The holiday sales are to the general buying-xmas-toys-for-junior market and they are only spending once a year. If that market isn't exploited in the holiday season it's lost opportunity. Missing some sales to the gamers right now can be made up later.

[JD]

If Nintendo isn't really trying to ramp up the production of the hardware, I wouldn't be suprised if we saw a slight decline in sales starting late August, lasting 'til some time in October. Because they'll be stocking some units to have more than the standard shipment available for the holiday season.

-Julian

[Talorc]

I have to vote for the "extending the warranty is an admission the current hardware is a lemon" and will hurt sales theory.

I'm pretty much a PC gamer, but I have been considering getting either a X360 or Wii leading up to Christmas. Now that Microsoft has "officially" confirmed all the anecdotal stories about hardware failures, there is no way I will buy this hardware iteration of X360.

I don't care if they will fix it for the next 3 years, I want it not to break in the first place. Since when has anyone ever had consumer electronics break and not been pissed off, regardless of warranty status? Why would you buy something the manufacturer has admitted has an abysmal failure rate?

I would only pick up a X360 now once I know they are on the new smaller chips, and have had a hardware redesign.

The best way to signal to consumers "Hey, our shit doesn't break any more!" would be a new form factor. So you *know* you are getting one of the new and improved versions, not one of the prone to break ones that has been hanging around the distribution channel for a while.

[RickH]

Anecdote alert- at dinner with my parents last night my dad asked if my 360 had broken yet. He had seen the stories this past week though he misunderstood it as a recall instead of warranty extension.

And that's the real point. The reliability problems is ALL the general public knows about the 360 right now. Remember, the general public has no idea that Halo 3 is an exclusive MS title, but still buys consoles for loved ones.

[KaoFloppy]

Remember, the general public has no idea that Halo 3 is an exclusive MS title, but still buys consoles for loved ones.
But if the 'loved' ones are constantly screaming for Halo 3, then the buyer is going to go to Walmart/EBGames and say "give me the console that will let him/her play Halo 3". And I think Halo generates as much demand & brand recognition as GTA.

And, I don't believe that the general public doesn't know that Halo is only available on the xbox. They might get the wrong xbox model (what! halo 3 doesn't run on my xbox?), but they won't mistakenly buy a ps3 to play this game.

[unbongwah]

Anecdote alert- at dinner with my parents last night my dad asked if my 360 had broken yet. He had seen the stories this past week though he misunderstood it as a recall instead of warranty extension.
*shrug* And my father knows nothing about it, despite being retired and spending an awful lot of time reading and listening to the news. Do our dads cancel each other out? :-)

I'm not saying this isn't a big deal, I was just refuting Dave's "everybody knows" assertion. Not everyone knows (except for very selective definitions of "everyone"); and not everyone who knows about it right now is going to remember a week from now.

But really, that's a pedantic argument. What's important is how many potential X360 buyers know about their HW woes; and of those, how many will reconsider buying an X360 because of them? It's easy for those of us who live within the gaming bubble to be all "OMFG SHIT BONERZ!!1!" about this, but how many people in the "real" world know or care?

[RickH]

But if the 'loved' ones are constantly screaming for Halo 3, then the buyer is going to go to Walmart/EBGames and say "give me the console that will let him/her play Halo 3". And I think Halo generates as much demand & brand recognition as GTA.

And, I don't believe that the general public doesn't know that Halo is only available on the xbox. They might get the wrong xbox model (what! halo 3 doesn't run on my xbox?), but they won't mistakenly buy a ps3 to play this game.

Your opinion of the GP is higher than mine. Look at the stories on www.preorderpushers.com to see just how ignorant soccer moms can be.

[KaoFloppy]

Your opinion of the GP is higher than mine. Look at the stories on www.preorderpushers.com to see just how ignorant soccer moms can be.
Ok you win. The Ms. Soccers are gonna pick up both PS3 and x360 at Costco, and return the one that doesn't play Halo 3. Hopefully.
(and thanks for reinforcing my decision to never buy anything at ebgames ever again.)

[solomani]

I want to buy a 360, more as a replacement HTPC than a games console (though Forza looks good), and just rang my local EB Games in Australia.

Asked if they had any in stock and was told they had sold out. He recommended that I not buy one for at least a month as the current batch of 360s for the current promotion in Australia (Forza+360) that were delivered to ebgames had a 90% failure rate. The ones that broke all had hard-disk issues so ebgames returned the lot for replacement and won’t restock until the end of August. Make of that what you will.

I’m still going to buy one because nothing on the WII or the overpriced ps3 really appeals to me game wise. Though the ps3 can be used as a htpc as well I believe but why buy an expensive ps3 when I can get a cheaper 360 with the added bonus of tons of games. I’ll just take a calculated risk and hope that if it was going to fail it would within the first 3 years and that the replacement down the track will be from a better engineered iteration. Which I expect is what MS is banking on – sell the busted ones and replace them with the better ones if they break in X years time.

What I would be interested in seeing is if the warranty announcement affects sales at all and in which direction.

What exactly is the problem with the 360? I am hazarding a guess its heat related since its essentially a miniature PC with poor ventilation. Is something melting like the HD or the soldering or something?

[shang]

I'm not sure how much you've researched this stuff already, but the 360 makes for a pretty lousy HTPC at the moment. If that's the primary use, I'd wait until either the 360 or PS3 is thoroughly hacked first.

[solomani]

HTPC is probably the wrong term. I basically want to retire my current HTPC and use the 360 to suck vids, music etc from my VISTA MCE. Essentially I want my kids to be able to use the remote on the xbox to stream shows from my Vista PC.

As far as I know this is works fine.

[shang]

As long as you have a small number of files and they are all WMVs, it probably works fine. Other than that, it's been clumsy at best in my experiences.

Maybe someone knows a better solution, but I tried sharing my video folders with TVersity, and the xbox media browser didn't seem to have support for hierarchical folder structure, so every video file ended up in one huge list. The real time re-encoding into wmv also crashed TVersity all the time, but maybe that was just some configuration problem on my end.

If I were you, I'd just get a modded Xbox1 with XBMC.

[Ephraim]

I think Solomani is talking about not just streaming videos, but also using the X360 as a Media Center Extender. It sounds as if he'll have it hooked up to a TV in order to allow his kids to watch the shows he's recorded on the Vista HTPC he's got, and allow them to stream live TV from the HTPC, too.

In which case the X360 works extremely well. I had that setup going for months and it worked flawlessly, my biggest complaint was the start-up time from off to Media Center Extender mode, but everything else worked fantastically over a wired 100 Mb/s network, even HD downloaded content.

[solomani]

I think Solomani is talking about not just streaming videos, but also using the X360 as a Media Center Extender. It sounds as if he'll have it hooked up to a TV in order to allow his kids to watch the shows he's recorded on the Vista HTPC he's got, and allow them to stream live TV from the HTPC, too.

In which case the X360 works extremely well. I had that setup going for months and it worked flawlessly, my biggest complaint was the start-up time from off to Media Center Extender mode, but everything else worked fantastically over a wired 100 Mb/s network, even HD downloaded content.

Thats it exactly it. Will be a hard wired network. I know a couple guys who do it and say its fine. Its not perfect but neither is HTPC technology yet. If its all fubar ill just get a DVD player and be done with it :)