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Woolen Horde
06-29-2007, 01:05 PM
Apparently the authorities just confirmed they found a second, unexploded car bomb. The first was as sophisticated as those used in Iraq. At first, it sounds pretty amateur. Boxes of roofing nails jammed in between jugs of gasoline and cans of propane, but if it exploded, the gas would have mixed with the air and created a fuel-air type explosion that magnified the propane. All those nails act as shrapnel, and easily dozens, if not hundreds, dead.

UK really, really lucked out this time, it seems. The guys who tried to pull this off didn't go for the martyrdom thing, otherwise they wouldn't have left the car sitting there waiting to get noticed like it did.

Though I wonder, doesn't this defeat the entire line of argument that we (as in the US and UK) are fighting them in Iraq so we wouldn't have to fight them at home? It's such a silly, grade-school level argument to begin with, and it's absolutely mind-boggling that people still use it.

Lizard_King
06-29-2007, 01:16 PM
Though I wonder, doesn't this defeat the entire line of argument that we (as in the US and UK) are fighting them in Iraq so we wouldn't have to fight them at home? It's such a silly, grade-school level argument to begin with, and it's absolutely mind-boggling that people still use it.
Yeah, I guess that's the silver lining, borne out by every other terrorist attack. I would think that was mostly meant as a rhetorical point (eg addressing Middle Eastern issues aggressively in their countries before they are able to affect us directly as the Taliban did rather than luring terrorists to Iraq to fight them on their own turf) instead of a literal one, although I'm sure there's plenty of morons pitching the latter. The former I don't disagree with in principle, just in execution.

jeffd
06-29-2007, 01:20 PM
I'm taking a wait and see approach on this. Could be a real deal, or this could end up being way overblown like the JFK plot.

Guido Jones
06-29-2007, 01:23 PM
The fact that all the pieces were together makes it a lot more real then the JFK thing.

Woolen Horde
06-29-2007, 01:26 PM
I'm taking a wait and see approach on this. Could be a real deal, or this could end up being way overblown like the JFK plot.

Jeez, the pieces were all in place and the bomb was literally smoking. That's as close a call as you can get.

Phil_Stein
06-29-2007, 01:27 PM
Guido is right - there's a big difference between a plan and a pair of actual car bombs parked on the street, ready to explode.

Good catch, Brits. Now lets hope they get the ones who planted the bombs.

Lunch of Kong
06-29-2007, 01:43 PM
if it exploded, the gas would have mixed with the air and created a fuel-air type explosion that magnified the propane.

I don't think it would have been a fuel air explosive. A FAE disperses the gas fully before igniting. In this case, the gas would already be ignited as it was being dispersed.

Still not a fun thing to be near, however.

Tim Partlett
06-29-2007, 04:28 PM
Almost certainly a terrorist attack. But not exactly a "good catch", as the security services had no idea the attack was going to happen. The police just got lucky.

We also currently have no idea who is responsible. The finger pointing goes immediately to the Muslim population, which isn't surprising given the last bomb attack. But the last nail bomb attack, in 1999 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Copeland), was by a neo-nazi who targeted gays, blacks and Muslims.

MikeSofaer
06-29-2007, 04:53 PM
The finger pointing goes immediately to the Muslim population, which isn't surprising given the last bomb attack. But the last nail bomb attack, in 1999 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Copeland), was by a neo-nazi who targeted gays, blacks and Muslims.
Tim, what is your personal estimate of the probability that this was done by a Muslim group?

Unicorn McGriddle
06-29-2007, 05:28 PM
Tim, what is your personal estimate of the probability that this was done by a Muslim group?

How should he know? So far as I'm aware, Tim doesn't have an inside line on the investigation. All he said was that people were saying it was Muslims before they knew. Maybe it is, maybe it's not, but either way that's true. Even if it IS Muslims, which is certainly a possibility, it's specific guys and not the Beast Nation of Islam as a whole.

Lum
06-29-2007, 05:45 PM
Don't forget, Muslims were responsible for the Oklahoma City bombing, until they weren't.

Given that it wasn't a suicide bomb, I'd actually suspect another group.

Jason McCullough
06-29-2007, 05:54 PM
Irish, Nazis, or Muslims?

Anders Hallin
06-29-2007, 05:59 PM
Probably the Kurds, paid by Mossad, working through a Shiite proxy, hoping to blame the Palestinians, directed against Indian interests to lead attention to the Kashmir conflict.
Also, black people, and Irish.

Wholly Schmidt
06-29-2007, 06:02 PM
For the horde.

John Merva
06-29-2007, 06:25 PM
Irish, Nazis, or Muslims?

I wouldn't have thought it was the Irish. So that's one off your list.

arctangent
06-29-2007, 07:04 PM
Interesting that two more or less identical car bombs were found before they went off - the first because of smoke (!?) coming out the window and the second because of the smell of gasoline:
That car had been towed across town to an impound lot; the attendants there, on the alert after news of the first foiled car bombing, smelled gasoline and alerted authorities.

The car had been parked on Cockspur Street, which runs between Haymarket and Trafalgar Square. About 2:30 a.m., it was ticketed and then towed an hour later to the impound lot on Park Lane on Hyde Park's eastern edge, Clarke said.

It's almost as though the 'bombers' wanted the cars to be found before they exploded. Or they were insanely incompetent.

JeffL
06-29-2007, 07:31 PM
Sounds like they screwed up. Reports I'm hearing is that they intended to set them off with cell phones and it didn't work.

"Can you hear me now?"

If they had been true fanatics and suicide bombers, it would have been pretty devastating

arctangent
06-29-2007, 07:50 PM
Sounds like they screwed up. Reports I'm hearing is that they intended to set them off with cell phones and it didn't work.

"Can you hear me now?"

If they had been true fanatics and suicide bombers, it would have been pretty devastating

Perhaps so...

http://www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2007/06/bombs_and_the_g.html

Jakub
06-29-2007, 08:20 PM
Or they were insanely incompetent.
How do you figure?

If they were insanely incompetent, you know, they'd probably blow themselves up, or not making a functioning bomb at all, or something.

More likely this was their first bomb and they fucked up.

I'm also inclined to think that this isn't a Muslim thing [yes yes, shock, gasp, horror] and there is actually something fishy about the car bombs being found before they detonated close to the anniversary of the last bombing. I'd bet on neo-nazis.

Bob Cherub
06-29-2007, 10:11 PM
The "War on Terror" is just a bumpersticker slogan.

Talisker
06-29-2007, 10:26 PM
Almost certainly a terrorist attack.
What angle can you think of where it wouldn't be a terrorist attack? I'm drawing a blank :)

Rward
06-29-2007, 11:50 PM
!!!TINFOIL TINFOIL TINFOIL!!!

Its all a conspiracy.
Brown's second day in office and he needs an excuse to continue the war effort. Dump 2 cars that will not explode, get some people to find them and Presto - problem solved.

..TINFOIL OFF..

Nice save by the Brits.
Haven't seen anything about the second car yet..

Unicorn McGriddle
06-30-2007, 01:32 AM
What angle can you think of where it wouldn't be a terrorist attack? I'm drawing a blank :)

Depends on how broad your definition of terrorism is. If the cars were intended to be found and the bombs weren't supposed to go off (which I think is a little implausible), is it still terrorism? If the bombs were the work of a "disgruntled employee shoots up workplace" type guy and had no political motivation, is it still terrorism?

polar boar
06-30-2007, 01:43 AM
Apparently one possible suspect is clearly visible on security footage. What with the massive camera surveillance going on in the London area, I would expect nothing less.

Tim Partlett
06-30-2007, 05:19 AM
What annoys me about the reporting of this is the ridiculous hysteria. A "fuel air explosive" this was not. The London Evening Standard even reported that potentially thousands could have died, based on the fact that the capacity of the nightclub was over a thousand people.

The first car contained 60 liters of petrol. That's just about enough to fill the tank of a Mercedes. It also contained 200 liters (about 10x5 gallon tanks for Americans) of retail propane, the kind used in barbecues. It's also used in propane torches used by car mechanics, roofers, etc. There was also also a number of blankets, a "quantity" of roofing nails, and a "crude detonation device" which included a mobile phone.

To help understand the potential explosive force of propane, here's a movie (http://www.metacafe.com/watch/438988/extreme_propane_tank_explosion/) taken by a bunch of kids heating up a single 5 gallon cannister. Note the loud explosion, but the lack of any damage to the camera filming it.

MikeJ
06-30-2007, 05:51 AM
To help understand the potential explosive force of propane, here's a movie (http://www.metacafe.com/watch/438988/extreme_propane_tank_explosion/) taken by a bunch of kids heating up a single 5 gallon cannister. Note the loud explosion, but the lack of any damage to the camera filming it.

That wasn't a 5 gallon cannister. It was a small camp canister, about 1.5 litres. Still, I'm having a hard time seeing how they would have set it up so the propane went in one big explosion, rather than a smaller explosion and an intense fire.

Tim Partlett
06-30-2007, 06:56 AM
This (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1s7iEY4UZU) was five gallons, blown up with a 50 cal. Notice how the explosive blast doesn't even make the branches of the tree move, let alone move the scrap cars or even the wooden planks that it was placed in. The heat from the outer blast isn't even intense enough to set twigs on fire.

The idea that an effective "fuel air bomb" could be created in the trunk of a Mercedes with a few cannisters of propane gas and a mobile phone, and that the IRA never figured that one out in decades, is just laughable. Did the IRA buy Semtex instead of the cheaper and more readily available propane gas because they were stupid?

Lizard_King
06-30-2007, 07:41 AM
Depends on how broad your definition of terrorism is. If the cars were intended to be found and the bombs weren't supposed to go off (which I think is a little implausible), is it still terrorism? If the bombs were the work of a "disgruntled employee shoots up workplace" type guy and had no political motivation, is it still terrorism?
Terrorism is a tactic, not some magical word that crops up when you don't like the people doing something. Unless you regard Haymarket as a legitimate military target by some arcane definition, then it was most certainly a terrorist attempt. It was intended to harm civilians in a historical landmark, and it was not the casualties per se that mattered as much as the impact they would have.

The idea that an effective "fuel air bomb" could be created in the trunk of a Mercedes with a few cannisters of propane gas and a mobile phone, and that the IRA never figured that one out in decades, is just laughable. Did the IRA buy Semtex instead of the cheaper and more readily available propane gas because they were stupid?
Bombers of all stripes in Iraq frequently use propane inappropiately in their ieds. It is speculated they enjoy the dramatic blast that gas and propane create, and because of its ready availability, they haven't gotten around to admitting that it is wildly ineffective in destroying fixed defenses or inflicting casualties through them. But it sure looks pretty for the propaganda video, and since they can claim as many casualties as they want without believing anything we say about it, it serves their purposes. Plus they use good old fashioned mortar rounds and other salvaged explosives to drive the blast, so the propane is really just the icing on the cake.

I suspect, however, there was some real incompetence afoot in this one. None of it sounds like the plotters even had internet access, as that could have easily taught them the basics they would need to create a far more effective car bomb.

Unicorn McGriddle
06-30-2007, 07:53 AM
Terrorism is a tactic, not some magical word that crops up when you don't like the people doing something.

Mais non.

Lizard_King
06-30-2007, 08:04 AM
Mais non.
I don't know what you're trying to say here. Is writing stuff in French the new funny?

Tim Partlett
06-30-2007, 08:07 AM
I sense your sarcasm, Lizard King, but do you really think ten 5 gallon cannisters of propane and a spare tank of gas (on its own and not combined with chlorine, high explosives, or artillery shells ala Iraq) is enough to kill a couple of thousand people?

Lizard_King
06-30-2007, 08:13 AM
I sense your sarcasm, Lizard King, but do you really think ten 5 gallon cannisters of propane and a spare tank of gas (on its own and not combined with chlorine, high explosives, or artillery shells ala Iraq) is enough to kill a couple of thousand people?
You sense sarcasm, but only because I am incapable of writing a post without being an asshole about it. It gets especially eerie when I talk about Iraq and all of the uncomfortable euphemisms that we use for killing each other.

I mean that post directly, though. Lousy bombers in Iraq frequently overuse propane, and all they end up getting out of it is a PR video with a dramatic fireball. I can easily imagine a novice bomber in the UK learning the wrong lesson from that sort of thing. I think it's a legitimate attack worth worrying about, but I am flabbergasted at the casualty estimates.

polar boar
06-30-2007, 08:16 AM
I know absolutely nothing about explosiveness properties of chemicals and the like, but it seems to me the idea was to launch the nails by detonation and cause damage due to shrapnel flying around, not by sheer force of the explosion itself.
That limits the area of effect to one street, and then only a part of it. How many people could be walking on that street at a single time, even given the lines in front of the night club(s)?

Authorities seem to be trying to paint this as something way bigger than it was.

Lizard_King
06-30-2007, 08:26 AM
I know absolutely nothing about explosiveness properties of chemicals and the like, but it seems to me the idea was to launch the nails by detonation and cause damage due to shrapnel flying around, not by sheer force of the explosion itself.
Yeah, but there's a reason professionals use shaped charges made of high explosives for these sort of things. And there's a reason that more needy professionals who don't have access to high explosives seek to contain the blast effectively to focus on the shrapnel. Now, it could be argued that they were trying to use the car to contain the low explosive and use that to drive the shrapnel, but there is absolutely nothing in any of the mentions of the primitive design that suggests they were close to pulling that off. Pipe bombs are put in pipes for a reason.


Authorities seem to be trying to paint this as something way bigger than it was.
Well, yeah, what do you expect?

Tim Partlett
06-30-2007, 08:49 AM
I hope this isn't going to be a week of retarded terrorist bomb (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6257194.stm) attempts. I'm going back to England for a holiday next week.

Rward
06-30-2007, 01:20 PM
Hope you're not going via Glascow.... :/

Uncle Larry
06-30-2007, 02:33 PM
We also currently have no idea who is responsible. The finger pointing goes immediately to the Muslim population, which isn't surprising given the last bomb attack. But the last nail bomb attack, in 1999 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Copeland), was by a neo-nazi who targeted gays, blacks and Muslims.

Early word is they're "Asian".

Witness Jackie Kennedy told the BBC that a man got out of the car, went to the back and pulled out a can of fuel, which he poured on himself and ignited.

"The guy was in flames and seemed to be enjoying himself," Kennedy said.

No word on religious affiliation yet. Any guesses?

Johan O
06-30-2007, 03:22 PM
'Asian' usually indicates a pakistani, in the UK. Or at least that is my understanding.

Uncle Larry
06-30-2007, 03:29 PM
So "by the numbers", in other words?

Tim Partlett
06-30-2007, 03:41 PM
I think you are confusing the events in Glasgow with the ones in London, Larry. There's been no mention of ethnicity for the London bombings yet, although they has been a lot of Al Qaeda speculation.

I'd also be wary of believing witness statements.

Johan O
06-30-2007, 03:57 PM
According to BBC world, there are suggestions of a link between one of the men in the car and the unexploded bombs.

DennyA
06-30-2007, 04:04 PM
Witness Jackie Kennedy told the BBC
Wow. That Jackie Kennedy is always in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Uncle Larry
06-30-2007, 04:59 PM
According to BBC world, there are suggestions of a link between one of the men in the car and the unexploded bombs.

I'M SO CONFUSED

Tim Partlett
06-30-2007, 06:04 PM
Yeah, you are. There were no witness reports of an "asian" driving the car in London because there's been no reports of anyone having seen the driver yet. The "link", which they say might be between the two incidents not the drivers, could be just that they are both terrorist attacks with similar delivery mechanisms, i.e. vehicles. In fact, I'm pretty sure the similarities in the attacks (not the perpetrators) are the only links between the two events that they have so far.

Grifman
06-30-2007, 09:48 PM
Yeah, you are. There were no witness reports of an "asian" driving the car in London because there's been no reports of anyone having seen the driver yet.

That's literally true but not the whole story:

Officers have a "crystal clear" CCTV image of a man "staggering" from the first car after parking it outside a West End nightclub, ABC News in the United States reported. Scotland Yard refused to comment.

Lizard_King
06-30-2007, 10:02 PM
Yeah, you are. There were no witness reports of an "asian" driving the car in London because there's been no reports of anyone having seen the driver yet. The "link", which they say might be between the two incidents not the drivers, could be just that they are both terrorist attacks with similar delivery mechanisms, i.e. vehicles. In fact, I'm pretty sure the similarities in the attacks (not the perpetrators) are the only links between the two events that they have so far.

So you don't think that the similarity in methodology and the pitiful state of their tactical capabilities suggest a link? You don't think two really lousy car bombs in such a short period of time are unlikely to happen independently?

Tim Partlett
07-01-2007, 04:28 AM
Officers have a "crystal clear" CCTV image of a man "staggering" from the first car after parking it outside a West End nightclub, ABC News in the United States reported. Scotland Yard refused to comment.

That's alleged information about what the British police saw, that didn't come from British police...

So you don't think that the similarity in methodology and the pitiful state of their tactical capabilities suggest a link? You don't think two really lousy car bombs in such a short period of time are unlikely to happen independently?

I don't have enough information. Currently there is too much speculation, and not enough solid evidence. If they both prove to be bomb attempts of a very similar kind, then I would think that they are very likely linked, and following a similar pattern to previous Al Qaeda attacks.

However, even if the are both bomb attempts, they might not be linked. There might have been two separate bomb plots, and the guys in Glasgow simply panicked when the one in London was discovered, thinking that the police would soon be sweeping through suspect homes, and wanting to attack before they were caught.

Lizard_King
07-01-2007, 08:09 AM
However, even if the are both bomb attempts, they might not be linked. There might have been two separate bomb plots, and the guys in Glasgow simply panicked when the one in London was discovered, thinking that the police would soon be sweeping through suspect homes, and wanting to attack before they were caught.
That's a good possibility, I hadn't thought of that. That would also make sense given the wtf factor of pairing up Glasgow and London in attacks.

Uncle Larry
07-01-2007, 09:52 AM
Police sources linked the airport attack to the failed London bomb plots and said they had traced the cars found in the capital back to Glasgow.

Also the guy from Scotland Yard doing the press conference on CNN right now just said they believe the connection between the two is "very clear."

I hope you're not going to freak out when the suspects all turn out to be muslims :(

"We tried to subdue the guy, but he's a bad boy, he's not for being subdued," said airport worker John Smitten, who ran to help police in the aftermath of the crash.

"He was shouting something. 'Allah,' something, ''Allah.' Every time he threw a punch, he was saying 'Allah.'

It's all so cryptic!

Grifman
07-01-2007, 09:59 AM
That's alleged information about what the British police saw, that didn't come from British police...

Actually, you don't know where it came from, unless you have some inside information the rest of us don't have. If true, then ABC had to have gotten it from police sources. SL refusal to comment doesn't necessarily mean it's not true. Of course it may not be true, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

And UK police are now saying they are linked per CNN:

Police sources linked the airport attack to the failed London bomb plots and said they had traced the cars found in the capital back to Glasgow.

Tim Partlett
07-01-2007, 10:15 AM
The Daily Mail quoted ABC's sources as being "US law-enforcement officials". I'm not sure how much of an authority unnamed US law-enforcement officials are on the up to the minute inner workings of the British police, and I'm not sure how reliable they are either. What's certain is that this is a single, unnamed, indirect source. Most respectable news outlet won't even consider publishing information that isn't double-sourced, which is why I guess ABC chose to publish that information via it's news blog.

So, I can say with certainty that the information didn't come from British police (at least not directly) and that the information is very unreliable.

And UK police are now saying they are linked, and the terrorists in Glasgow definitely were "Asian".

They are saying they are linked because of the type of attack, like I said. They've not said that there is any link, yet, between the people involved.

Tim Partlett
07-01-2007, 10:20 AM
Also the guy from Scotland Yard doing the press conference on CNN right now just said they believe the connection between the two is "very clear."

I hope you're not going to freak out when the suspects all turn out to be muslims :(

Don't be an idiot. I'm not opposed to the facts, only the way people jump to conclusions and hype the dangers. I only warned against the immediate finger pointing, because people (especially non-British) forget that Britain has a history of terrorism that is not related to the American "war on terror". The last failed car bomb attack was in 2001, and occurred in my home city, and involved 60lbs of actual explosives, not some cans of propane. That was the Real IRA.

Uncle Larry
07-01-2007, 11:07 AM
Tim...you're still not having any fun?!

http://www.the-hud.com/cage/castor.jpg

Yeah, let's not jump to conclusions, especially given the weight that our speculation here adds to the ongoing investigation. Who knows, maybe the IRA is simply following America's lead and outsourcing its gruntwork to the east.

LarryLard
07-01-2007, 11:47 AM
'Asian' usually indicates a pakistani, in the UK. Or at least that is my understanding.

No, when applied to people it means from (in an ethnicity sense) the Indian subcontinent. So Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, etc. Pakistanis are not the most populous British Asian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Asian) sub-group.

Tim Partlett
07-01-2007, 11:57 AM
Yeah, let's not jump to conclusions, especially given the weight that our speculation here adds to the ongoing investigation.

Yeah, given that the words we write on this forum have no impact on anything of significance, we should all just stop writing.

Uncle Larry
07-01-2007, 01:26 PM
Yeah, given that the words we write on this forum have no impact on anything of significance, we should all just stop writing.

Definitely not having fun. It's because of the (probably) muslims, right?

Grifman
07-01-2007, 01:41 PM
They are saying they are linked because of the type of attack, like I said. They've not said that there is any link, yet, between the people involved.

Nope, the cars used in the attempted London attacks have been traced to Glasgow where the terminal attack occurred. So unless this is incredible coincidence . . . :)

Uncle Larry
07-01-2007, 02:26 PM
Grifman, it works a lot better when your joy is subtly implied. Try a picture next time.

http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/1083/joker2ml0.jpg

Tim Partlett
07-01-2007, 02:52 PM
Nope, the cars used in the attempted London attacks have been traced to Glasgow where the terminal attack occurred. So unless this is incredible coincidence . . . :)

Says who? Another unnamed source mentioned in a news blog? I'm talking only about what the British police have actually been quoted as saying, not speculation.

It feels like the Iraq war all over again: "You're wrong that there might not be WMDs in Iraq because CNN reports that this unnamed Iraqi dissident said that there were and Iraqis would know more than you!"

I'm guessing that if the British police do announce that they traced the cars back to Glasgow, you'll claim I was retrospectively wrong for saying that this is currently unknown.

Tim Partlett
07-01-2007, 02:54 PM
In real news, a link between the two events is starting to be established.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/07/01/world/01cnd-britain1_lg.jpg

That's the Jeep outside Glasgow airport. No need for unsourced quotes to see a connection there.

Uncle Larry
07-01-2007, 03:10 PM
In real news, a link between the two events is starting to be established.


Yeah, that's the impression is got from watching the news, when I said:

Also the guy from Scotland Yard doing the press conference on CNN right now just said they believe the connection between the two is "very clear."

Is CNN the "news blog" you're referring to, or were you just unaware of where I was getting my information from? I still kinda consider them legit, but YMMV.

Tim Partlett
07-02-2007, 04:44 AM
So here's my take on what happened. It's total conjecture, but based on what we know so far.

There are four car bombs that we know of. One crashed outside a nightclub, but the guy ran away and it never detonated. The second had been taken away by traffic police from a location nearby. The third was driven into the doors of Glasgow airport, already on fire, but failed to make it through and the heat generated wasn't enough to blow the cans of propane. The fourth was discovered outside a hospital in Glasgow, and was detonated under controlled circumstances.

Now my guess is that they are all linked, but only the Glasgow attack was carried out in any way like it was intended. I think the plan was to have simultaneous attacks, like Al Qaeda are famous for, but that something went wrong. I'm thinking maybe the crash outside the Tiger Tiger nightclub was an real accident, caused by the driver becoming overpowered by the fumes that the paramedics saw coming out of the car.

With the plan out in the open, and the police rapidly closing in on the suspects, I think the Glasgow group panicked and tried to carry out their plan ahead of schedule, and not simultaneously. They probably weren't totally prepared, and that's probably why they cocked it up so badly.

I'm guessing that they originally planned for all four, maybe more, cars to explode simultaneously at certain points around Britain. The two Mercedes in London were part of the southern team. There was a guy arrested in Liverpool, so maybe something was planned there too, and a couple of cars in Glasgow.

If this is true, then they possibly haven't got them all, and there are more cars around. Hopefully they are all as incompetent as the guys they've caught already, or they will be scared into aborting whatever plans they have.

Andrew Mayer
07-02-2007, 09:18 AM
Here's Scotland Yard's take:
"So incompetent as to be almost laughable. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhJZqtta3c4)"

You have to love the way he takes them to task in detail for being idiots at destruction.

Tim Partlett
07-02-2007, 11:13 AM
Yeah, but you won't get the current Scotland Yard elite saying the same thing. They're too busy explaining how this was a threat to humanity, and how the only way they can stop this is by increasing their powers and numbers dramatically.

olaf
07-02-2007, 12:20 PM
Its a good thing Islam is a peaceful religion and not a murderous one, or we'd all really be fucked.

Unicorn McGriddle
07-02-2007, 01:02 PM
I haven't seen terrorists this sloppy since de_dust. Some teams are going to be relegated this year for sure.

Glenn
07-02-2007, 01:32 PM
Four attacks with zero civilian injuries is just too implausible, it's clearly some kind of trick meant to lull us into a false sense of security. Like an "Operation Keystone Kaeda," or something.

MikeSofaer
07-02-2007, 01:36 PM
Four attacks with zero civilian injuries is just too implausible, it's clearly some kind of trick meant to lull us into a false sense of security. Like an "Operation Keystone Kaeda," or something.
"Keystone foundation"? That makes no sense, it's like an architectural paradox, like a terrorist Escher drawing. Something is clearly wrong with your theory.

jeffd
07-02-2007, 01:36 PM
Huh, looks like I was right before rushing to judgement on this one. "Idiots fuck up bomb plots, media drastically exaggerates actual seriousness" seems to be the actual headline.

Uncle Larry
07-02-2007, 03:30 PM
I guess Asains don't get the innate +1 bonus to Musliming that their semetic counterparts enjoy.

Al-Qaeda might want to re-roll here.

Tim Partlett
07-02-2007, 04:45 PM
Judging by the current arrests the culprits are from the Middle East: Iraqi and Jordanian. No British have been arrested yet.

Nellie
07-03-2007, 07:12 AM
The Register's resident bomb disposal man joins the "what was all the fuss about?" camp (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/07/02/terror_idiocy_outbreak/)

Getting back to here and now, these have to be some of the most pathetic terror attacks ever - difficult to distinguish from minor accidents. For goodness' sake, a car is full of petrol anyway; and gas cylinders too often enough. People drive cylinders of gas around all the time. Now and again - oh my god! - they probably carry boxes of nails, bolts, tools or whatever in the same vehicle. (Aiee!).....

Robert Sharp
07-03-2007, 09:12 AM
So...these guys are incompetent....and 7 of them are doctors? What the hell is with all these doctors being involved?

http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20070017565&ch=7/3/2007%208:50:00%20PM

MikeJ
07-03-2007, 09:26 AM
So...these guys are incompetent....and 7 of them are doctors?

They slept through their bomb-making lectures in med school, is my guess.

Nellie
07-03-2007, 09:37 AM
I'm starting to get the impression they could have caused more terror, over a longer period of time by continuing to practice medicine. How can you be smart enough to become a brain surgeon and not have the nouce to test your super duper car bombs?

playingwithknives
07-03-2007, 10:04 AM
I arrived at Gatwick yesterday (6 delay due to a broken down plane rather than terrorism) and have just dropped off my girlfriend at Stansted. Apart the drop off point being inaccessible by car, the extra security didn't affect me at all in the last few days, which was suprising, but nice.

The fact they were doctors is worrying, so much for the line always being peddled about a small minority of poor, unemployed disaffected youth being the main problem. It seems to go far deeper into some Muslim communities than that these days.

Lizard_King
07-03-2007, 10:08 AM
The fact they were doctors is worrying, so much for the line always being peddled about a small minority of poor, unemployed disaffected youth being the main problem. It seems to go far deeper into some Muslim communities than that these days.

I don't think very many people really worry about the disenfranchised Arab masses unless they live in Gaza. That idea of them being the source of terrorists has long been discredited, not least by the track records of terrorists worldwide. It's often the elites or at least their sons that take up terrorism as a trade.

Glenn
07-03-2007, 10:09 AM
My boss is an asian PhD, and I imagine she'd be about as competent at bomb-making as these guys.

Lizard_King
07-03-2007, 12:31 PM
My boss is an asian PhD, and I imagine she'd be about as competent at bomb-making as these guys.
Unless this PhD took fifteen minutes to look it up on the internet and another ten to apply some basic physics to it. Then you might have something going, as a basic groundwork in science would probably be useful. I don't think as much as say a blue collar mechanic's background or something hands on like that, but you'd think at least for the planning and research the higher overall aptitude would help. Were these the last seven doctors in the UK who don't use the internet?

playingwithknives
07-03-2007, 12:35 PM
I don't think very many people really worry about the disenfranchised Arab masses unless they live in Gaza. That idea of them being the source of terrorists has long been discredited, not least by the track records of terrorists worldwide. It's often the elites or at least their sons that take up terrorism as a trade.

I meant in terms of the fledgling extremist cells in the UK. The first carbomb incident had the usual news analysts talking about the unemployed asians youth in the UK, now after the knowledge doctors were involved, it seems to broken with many of the assumptions involved with what is going on with UK born Muslims and extremism. It's not just the fact they were educated, monied middle class, but that they are doctors is fairly chilling to me.

Lizard_King
07-03-2007, 12:45 PM
I meant in terms of the fledgling extremist cells in the UK. The first carbomb incident had the usual news analysts talking about the unemployed asians youth in the UK, now after the knowledge doctors were involved, it seems to broken with many of the assumptions involved with what is going on with UK born Muslims and extremism. It's not just the fact they were educated, monied middle class, but that they are doctors is fairly chilling to me.
I suppose your news analysts are just as brainless as ours at times. Given their likely percentage of the world Muslim population, the well-educated and wealthy appear to be disproportionately present in extremist groups. I believe that was first shed light on in the US in 9/11 with the sort of men we were dealing with there, and reinforced before and after with many of the suicide bombers in Israel and the like.

Daniel Morris
07-03-2007, 01:53 PM
The fact they were doctors is worrying, so much for the line always being peddled about a small minority of poor, unemployed disaffected youth being the main problem.

Study Islamic terrorism and you will quickly understand that the threat does not come from the poor and unemployed. It comes from educated men, often from prominent families and with experience in the West. Zawahiri is a physician...bin Laden an engineer...the 9/11 pilots held civil-engineering degrees from European universities...Khalid Sheikh holds a mechanical-engineering degree from North Carolina.

By contrast, the largest and poorest Muslim population in the world -- that of Indonesia -- does not pose an Islamist threat to anyone. Hundreds of millions of Muslims live in desperate poverty there, but the Islamist parties achieve LaRouche-level results in national elections. (The Bali blast was carried out by South Asians, not Indonesians.)

Jason McCullough
07-03-2007, 03:24 PM
That would be the Indonesia that was a dictatorship up until 1998 and had it's first presidential election in 2004? It's not a very good test case yet for democracy and the effects of muslim radicalism. Probably the easiest explanation of Indonesia's apparently restful Muslim population is that religion is not the sole driving factor of this. Geography (hey look, we're out in the middle of th ocean!) and international relations matter quite a bit.

Of course the poor don't drive their revolution; basically every post-feudal revolution has been driven by educated radical types. You don't get educated radical types launching revolutions out of happy rich cultural majorities though, so much.

Glenn
07-03-2007, 03:27 PM
Unless this PhD took fifteen minutes to look it up on the internet and another ten to apply some basic physics to it. Then you might have something going, as a basic groundwork in science would probably be useful.That's the same kind of logic that would lead you to conclude that a judge would never file a frivolous civil claim against a dry cleaners for tens of millions of dollars over a missing pair of pants. In both cases, it fails because you are not accounting for outliers.

Grifman
07-03-2007, 04:29 PM
Huh, looks like I was right before rushing to judgement on this one. "Idiots fuck up bomb plots, media drastically exaggerates actual seriousness" seems to be the actual headline.

Any plot to kill others is serious. You can't rely on all terrorists to be incompetent.

Lizard_King
07-03-2007, 04:43 PM
That's the same kind of logic that would lead you to conclude that a judge would never file a frivolous civil claim against a dry cleaners for tens of millions of dollars over a missing pair of pants. In both cases, it fails because you are not accounting for outliers.
OK. I'm still going to go on assuming that your average bricklayer would be a bigger dumbass than your average neurosurgeon. I don't disagree with you, but I am still going to be surprised when it's not true.

JeffL
07-03-2007, 04:51 PM
Yeah, when I was a grad student I worked one summer in Myrtle Beach. A guy who lived in a bus by the beach tried to pay me to help him make some drugs, when he found out I had chemistry training - he'd found all the sources he needed to tell him how to cook the drugs and how to acquire the restricted ingredients, and had all the glassware. But he could not figure out where to find "reflux" - none of the chemical companies carried it and they hung up on him when he inquired about it, leading him to think it was really restricted, and the instructions said to "slowly add the acid and reflux." (for the non-chemists, refluxing is simply when you add a reflux condenser and heat the solution and allow the liquid to boil off and then condense and drip back in from the reflux condenser.)

There are gonna be outliers, but most people these days that have their Ph.D. or M.D. have had tons and tons of experience at searching and analyzing the technical literature and effectively translating it into practicable instructions. Just for kicks, I did a quick search and it looks like it wouldn't be difficult to do this (the bombs) effectively (though, for the CIA and FBI and NSA, I would never ever even consider doing such thing, OK guys?)

Glenn
07-03-2007, 05:03 PM
OK. I'm still going to go on assuming that your average bricklayer would be a bigger dumbass than your average neurosurgeon.Uh, agreed? An advanced degree is typically indicative of a higher degree of intelligence, but it doesn't guarantee it.

Also, it's worth noting that these were all foreign nationals from countries with less-than-exemplary educational institutions. I know a scientist with an MD from the Philippines; he's a really bright guy, but he'll be the first to tell you that he's not a reliable source of medical information.

Quaro
07-03-2007, 05:14 PM
Jeez. That's the thing. You'd think if you were going to throw your life away, you'd at least do a web search first on how these things work. That neurologist may have saved more patients by preventing his future medical practice than he hoped to kill the blast.

Lizard_King
07-03-2007, 05:24 PM
Also, it's worth noting that these were all foreign nationals from countries with less-than-exemplary educational institutions. I know a scientist with an MD from the Philippines; he's a really bright guy, but he'll be the first to tell you that he's not a reliable source of medical information.
"I could lose my license to practice-(drumroll)-Mexican medicine!"

Stormbinder
07-03-2007, 11:20 PM
Now my guess is that they are all linked, but only the Glasgow attack was carried out in any way like it was intended. I think the plan was to have simultaneous attacks, like Al Qaeda are famous for, but that something went wrong. I'm thinking maybe the crash outside the Tiger Tiger nightclub was an real accident, caused by the driver becoming overpowered by the fumes that the paramedics saw coming out of the car.



As many people said here, their whole setup seems to be quite unprofessional, from bad bomb design to weak logistics.

These guys might very well be inspired by Al Queda with its trandmarked simultaneous attacks, but I strongy doubt that they *are* Al Queda or even have direct linkis to it.

Just my gut feeling.

Grifman
07-04-2007, 05:55 AM
By contrast, the largest and poorest Muslim population in the world -- that of Indonesia -- does not pose an Islamist threat to anyone. Hundreds of millions of Muslims live in desperate poverty there, but the Islamist parties achieve LaRouche-level results in national elections. (The Bali blast was carried out by South Asians, not Indonesians.)

Indonesia is not one of the poorest Muslim countries. It's per capital GDP is almost the same as Egypt's and Syria's and higher than Pakistan. Excluding the oil states, it's in the upper half of the pack in terms of Muslim nations per capita GDP rankings.

LarryLard
07-04-2007, 07:46 AM
So...these guys are incompetent....and 7 of them are doctors? What the hell is with all these doctors being involved?


This might be how it works: One of the things that this particular flavour of extremism is always banging on about is the 'decadence' of the west, and how we are all morally corrupt and degraded. Well, working in an A&E department in any British city - dare I say especially Glasgow? - is going to be a super way of seeing that moral corruption up close every night of the week, with a double dose at the weekend. It maybe only takes a little prodding to persuade someone who's already disgusted with the drunken bloody thugs and slappers he sees every night that the way forward is for these people to be 'cleansed' ...

In fact this idea seems so familiar that I think it must have been the plot of an episode of Spooks.

The last guy to nailbomb central London (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Copeland) seems to have had these kind of thoughts. Of course, both he and the Islamists would be the first to deny any similarities between their ways of thinking!

dermot
07-04-2007, 07:52 AM
I wouldn't be too sure: link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Myatt).

Unicorn McGriddle
07-04-2007, 07:54 AM
These guys might very well be inspired by Al Queda with its trandmarked simultaneous attacks, but I strongy doubt that they *are* Al Queda or even have direct linkis to it.

If they're Al Qaeda, they're so fired.

Charles
07-04-2007, 09:26 AM
So, late to this thread, but...

Propane is used in cars because it doesn't explode. All the explosive force of a propane 'explosion' comes simply from the pressure of the canister containing it. Propane will not combust until it reaches a certain fuel-air mixture. Meaning that before it even ignites properly it has to have already expanded. And then it simply burns off in heat/fire.

Glenn
07-04-2007, 09:30 AM
My Worst Day Ever, (http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/tm_headline=i-kicked-burning-terrorist-so-hard-in-balls-that-i-tore-a-tendon-in-my-foot--&method=full&objectid=19401382&siteid=66633-name_page.html) by Khalid Ahmed.

JeffL
07-04-2007, 09:35 AM
You know, Timothy McVeigh wasn't a rocket scientist, but even he figured out how simple it is to kill hundreds with everyday materials. Perhaps these guys just tried to get too fancy.

Charles
07-04-2007, 09:45 AM
You know, Timothy McVeigh wasn't a rocket scientist, but even he figured out how simple it is to kill hundreds with everyday materials. Perhaps these guys just tried to get too fancy.

He was a farmer, however. Or at least had some farm background (or his brother did, but I assume it carried over). Farmers know how dangerous fertilizer can be, because they have to.

Lizard_King
07-04-2007, 10:37 AM
He was a farmer, however. Or at least had some farm background (or his brother did, but I assume it carried over). Farmers know how dangerous fertilizer can be, because they have to.
I don't know how rural Lockport, New York is. According to his wiki-bio, he was a rentacop, soldier, and meth-head. If I had to guess, I'd say the last one made him more of a chemist than any of the other jobs.

Either way, I don't think his background was the key there.

bago
07-04-2007, 12:05 PM
A Gasoline powered bomb is just silly. Don't people know what octane (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating) means?

Tim Partlett
07-04-2007, 01:46 PM
Indonesia is not one of the poorest Muslim countries. It's per capital GDP is almost the same as Egypt's and Syria's and higher than Pakistan. Excluding the oil states, it's in the upper half of the pack in terms of Muslim nations per capita GDP rankings.

Yeah, at 114th out of 194 countries ranked by GDP per capita, Indonesia is actually quite middling by world standards, and is one of the wealthiest and most developed nations in the Muslim world (which tends to lag far behind the West). The poorest Muslim country is Somalia, at 193rd. Also down there are Yemen, at 179th, and Afghanistan, 186th. Yemen gave the world a large chunk of the 9/11 suicide bombers, and Afghanistan gave us the Taleban and harboured Al Qaeda. And we all know how fucked up Somalia is.

It would be facile to claim that poverty and ignorance drives terrorism, but it would equally be facile to pretend that there is no connection either. Certainly it can help to drive people towards groups, like Al Qaeda, who claim to offer a solution to their problems, e.g. to create a Pan-Islamic caliphate run by an Islamic government.

Stormbinder
07-04-2007, 04:33 PM
If they're Al Qaeda, they're so fired.

Hehe.

Stormbinder
07-04-2007, 04:42 PM
Yeah, at 114th out of 194 countries ranked by GDP per capita, Indonesia is actually quite middling by world standards, and is one of the wealthiest and most developed nations in the Muslim world (which tends to lag far behind the West). The poorest Muslim country is Somalia, at 193rd. Also down there are Yemen, at 179th, and Afghanistan, 186th. Yemen gave the world a large chunk of the 9/11 suicide bombers, and Afghanistan gave us the Taleban and harboured Al Qaeda. And we all know how fucked up Somalia is.

It would be facile to claim that poverty and ignorance drives terrorism, but it would equally be facile to pretend that there is no connection either.

...And Saudi Arabia, by far one of the richest Muslim countries, gave us 15 out of 19 9-11 terrorists.

When we are talking about international terrorism, people with high education are in much better position to slip through the borders, to coordinate and execute complex terrorist plots, to avoid detection by country's special services and to raise to the positions of power within terror structure.

Grifman
07-04-2007, 04:57 PM
He was a farmer, however. Or at least had some farm background (or his brother did, but I assume it carried over). Farmers know how dangerous fertilizer can be, because they have to.

From what I've read England has clamped down on the availability of stuff like this. You're not going to be able to walk into a store and easily buy a bunch of fertilizer. These guys had to make do with what they could get.

Lizard_King
07-04-2007, 05:53 PM
It would be facile to claim that poverty and ignorance drives terrorism, but it would equally be facile to pretend that there is no connection either.
It would also be facile to pretend that is what anyone is saying, here.

Grifman
07-04-2007, 07:23 PM
These guys might very well be inspired by Al Queda with its trandmarked simultaneous attacks, but I strongy doubt that they *are* Al Queda or even have direct linkis to it.

That would now appear to perhaps be wrong:

At least some of the suspects held over the attempted terrorist attacks on London and Glasgow were recruited by al Qaeda while they were living in the Middle East, U.S. officials say.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/07/04/london.alqaeda/index.html

Stormbinder
07-04-2007, 11:59 PM
That would now appear to perhaps be wrong:



http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/07/04/london.alqaeda/index.html

Hmm. Interesting, but let's wait until we will hear something from non-anonymous sources.

In any case, perhaps some of these "good doctors" had some links to that Al-Queda-In-Iraq offspring group rather than old Bin Laden's Al Queda, which was a completely separate organization until it declared its loyalty to the Al-Queda? Either that, or these doctors are not related to Al Queda, or if they are, that would mean that the level of sophistication of that organization went waaaaaay down from what it used to be. Of course, as a sane western person I would prefer the last explanation. :) But something tells me it might be too much to hope for.

I mean, think about it. These guys are routinely blowing up our best M1A2 battle tanks with their advanced IEDs in Iraq. I am not even mentioning Al Queda's 9-11 and pre 9-11 attacks. It's impossible to compare the level of sophistication of their earlier international terror acts with these lame gasoline bombs and terrible logistics of this London operation. Something is not right here.

TomChick
07-05-2007, 12:36 AM
[al-Qaeda in Iraq] are routinely blowing up our best M1A2 battle tanks with their advanced IEDs in Iraq.
Uh, what? I could be wrong, but I don't think the insurgents or the al-Qaeda-in-Iraq guys have been taking out our tanks in Iraq, and they're certainly not doing it "routinely".

It sounds like you're buying into this Administration's effort to portray al-Qaeda (Iraqi flavor and otherwise) as a terrible ruthlessly efficient ubiquitous boogeyman. My guess is that the propane cars are something along the lines of the Madrid bombing, which was "inspired" by al-Qaeda more than actually connected to it.

-Tom

Not One Of Us
07-05-2007, 12:47 AM
Uh, what? I could be wrong, but I don't think the insurgents or the al-Qaeda-in-Iraq guys have been taking out our tanks in Iraq, and they're certainly not doing it "routinely".
I believe LK reported here at one time that the insurgents have discovered ways to reliably take down our Abrams.

I can't find it in the Wiki right now, but I believe the last count of M1A2 losses was at 20.

Brad Grenz
07-05-2007, 12:54 AM
The difference, though, is access to munitions and sophisticated explosives. I think nice bomb goodies are more or less lying on the ground all over Iraq, and if not, it's easy enough to get some from Iran. You can't even buy a gun in England, so the fact that these cars weren't filled with C4 isn't that surprising. That's not to say I don't think these were slipshod attempts. They could've caused more damage and fear with dry ice bombs...

TomChick
07-05-2007, 12:56 AM
Wikipedia lists three instances of Abrams disabled by IEDs over the course of the war (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams), but it also points out that they're durable enough to survive a typical IED. There's a reason armor is called armor, you know. :)

I don't doubt we've lost some to dedicated AT weapons like RPGs, but I don't think al-Qaeda (or anyone else) is "routinely" destroying our Abrams with IEDs, which is what Stormbinder claimed.

-Tom

TomChick
07-05-2007, 12:58 AM
They couldn't caused more damage and fear with dry ice bombs...

I shudder to think what would have happened if they'd been trained in the effects of vinegar and baking soda.

-Tom

Brad Grenz
07-05-2007, 01:01 AM
And naturally you've quoted a typo. That should be "could've". My typing gos bad tis ltae,

Jakub
07-05-2007, 10:23 AM
Someone's been watching too many Jihadist propaganda videos.

Only about a half dozen Abrams have been knocked out completely in Iraq, and just over a dozen were disabled but in repairable condition. Taking 60 pictures from different angles, or pictures of Abrams in gasoline fires and propane fireballs that don't even singe the paint, doesn't mean the tanks are being knocked out "routinely". :)

Stormbinder
07-05-2007, 03:04 PM
Uh, what? I could be wrong, but I don't think the insurgents or the al-Qaeda-in-Iraq guys have been taking out our tanks in Iraq, and they're certainly not doing it "routinely".
...

Wikipedia lists three instances of Abrams disabled by IEDs over the course of the war (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams), but it also points out that they're durable enough to survive a typical IED. There's a reason armor is called armor, you know. :)

I don't doubt we've lost some to dedicated AT weapons like RPGs, but I don't think al-Qaeda (or anyone else) is "routinely" destroying our Abrams with IEDs, which is what Stormbinder claimed.

-Tom

Correct, that link does mention 3 EOD disabled Abrams. Although it also mentioned unspecified number of Abrams successefully disabled/put out of action by other methods:

(quote)
"Some were disabled by Iraqi infantrymen in ambushes employing short-range antitank rockets, such as the Russian RPG-7, during the 2003 invasion. Frequently the rockets were fired at the tank tracks. Another was put out of action in an incident when fuel stowed in an external rack was struck by heavy machine gun rounds. This started a fire that spread to the engine.[3] [4]."


Overall "routinely" may not have been the best choice of word on my part, I agree. I think I have mentally bundled together Abrams disabled by IED with Abrams disabled by other weapons, since I assumed IED is the main anti-Abram weapons employed by Iraqies.

However it did happen on at least several ocasions, as can be seen from wiki and other sources.

In any case, how many hundreds of humvees, inlcuding up-armored ones, have been blown to pieces with powerful and inceasingly more sophisticated bombs in Iraq? Last time I've checked, around 40% of all our casaulties in Iraq were due to EIDs. And I think we can safely assume that these were no gasoline bombs.

TomChick
07-05-2007, 04:40 PM
My overall point, Stormbinder, was that you were grossly overestimating al-Qaeda's reach and effect in your post.

The IEDs in Iraq have indeed gotten more sophisticated and lethal, as there have been escalating rounds of adaptation and countermeasure between the insurgents and US forces. But they're not taking out main battle tanks and they're not solely the work of al-Qaeda-in-Iraq, which is just one group among the insurgents.

-Tom

Lizard_King
07-05-2007, 06:47 PM
I believe LK reported here at one time that the insurgents have discovered ways to reliably take down our Abrams.


They didn't discover them, it is believed they just reapplied what the Palestinians had mastered against the Israelis. Namely, every inch of armor we add, they simply increase the explosives a ridiculous amount for a marginal increase in effort and cost. If one anti-tank mine doesn't work, they triple stack them. We're going to run out of ways to add armor long before they run out of explosives. Our more successful, long term approach is interdicting them before they can lay in the IED, but that's a story for another day.

As far as RPG's go, most of their equipment is hopelessly outdated vs. an Abrams. Even a disabling shot relies on incredible luck, and more than likely is simply a product of flagrant misuse by commanders of tanks in urban environments than any prowess on the part of the insurgents.

Anyhow, Brad's point about the different availability of materials is spot on. It's simply not possible for normal people to get ahold of any of the materials that are scattered in mass amounts throughout Iraq and its neighbors. You can make some of them, but again, not easy.

Tom is also correct in saying that viewing the different groups in Iraq as operating under AQI alone is fundamentally wrong. It is especially unfortunate if you mix in statistics from that brief but ultraviolent period of open war between armies in 2003.

Anyhow, the sophistication and training necessary to make better bombs is unquestionably available, as a member of AQ or not. What AQ could conceivably provide is the supplies to make genuinely worthwhile devices, which they clearly did not in this case. It suggests that either these were the proverbial low-hanging fruit if they were sanctioned at all, or they simply claim connection to AQ in a feeble attempt to be legitimized. Or the government is blowing the connection (my brother's uncle sister's friend knew a guy in AQ) out of proportion to legitimize their own issues.

drewl
07-05-2007, 07:38 PM
If they're detonating IED's with cell phones, how come they haven't thought of sending out an RF signal to "ring" the phone setting off the device?
should be quite easy.
A mass call device like the telemarketers use.

Lizard_King
07-05-2007, 07:42 PM
If they're detonating IED's with cell phones, how come they haven't thought of sending out an RF signal to "ring" the phone setting off the device?
should be quite easy.
A mass call device like the telemarketers use.
Actually, we came up with that countermeasure years ago. I'm not going to go into it, but your telemarketer idea is positively Theodore Rexian in the magnitude of its impracticality. ANYWAY....that's why they mostly use line detonated or pressure plate IED's these days. Not as videogenic or effective, and far more risky for the triggerman in the former, but they seem willing.

drewl
07-06-2007, 04:49 AM
I have no idea what "theodore rexian" means, but what I meant with the telemarketer comment was you basically call or slide through several frequencies or codes until you hit the right one, but since they changed tactics as you stated the point is moot.

Good to know they already thought of it.

Nick Walter
07-06-2007, 06:29 AM
"Theodore Rexian" means it is a dumb idea, in a nutshell.

It's simply not practical with modern digital phones. They require a heck of a lot more than 'received frequency X' to start ringing.

Anti-Bunny
07-07-2007, 11:28 AM
There's a massive anti-terror rally scheduled today in Scotland. Is anyone over on that side of the pond, near there?

Stormbinder
07-07-2007, 12:07 PM
My overall point, Stormbinder, was that you were grossly overestimating al-Qaeda's reach and effect in your post.


I got your point Tim. I have already admitted that I went too far regarding Abrams tanks, haven't I?


But what about Al Queda international terrorism acts that I also pointed to in my posts?

What about 1993 attack on World Center?

What about U.S. embassy bombings in East Africa?

What about blowing up destroyer U.S.S. Cole?

What about 9-11 attack?

Am I continuing to "grossly overestimating al-Qaeda's reach and effect" here? Or do you truly believe that Al Queda was diminished so much by Bush administration's actions in the last 5 years that it is now nothing but a tiny pale shadow of a former self, incapable of launching sophisticated and deadly attack against "Big Satan" or its allies?

Lizard_King
07-07-2007, 12:47 PM
Am I continuing to "grossly overestimating al-Qaeda's reach and effect" here? Or do you truly believe that Al Queda was diminished so much by Bush administration's actions in the last 5 years that it is now nothing but a tiny pale shadow of a former self, incapable of launching sophisticated and deadly attack against "Big Satan" or its allies?

I don't think anyone misses the gravity of the threat posed by Al Qaeda. I think that the problem is when one starts seeing Al Qaeda in every threat, and focusing on engaging all possibilities at all times instead of just the more likely ones. I think the Bush administration's approach has not been an exceptional effort in that regard, to put it mildly. They may well have had a crippling effect on Al Qaeda, but unfortunately what *could* have happened had the Bush measures been taken is very difficult to gauge. I think it is obvious that a lot of the ideas (homeland security, airport security, port (!) security, etc) are being run poorly or not at all, multiplied by a million every time some village in Assfuck, Tennessee (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/03/31/60minutes/main684349.shtml) gets kitted out on the homeland security dime in The Name Of Fighting Al Qaeda. I suspect that's the sort of thing Tim means by grossly overestimating its reach.

TomChick
07-07-2007, 12:53 PM
Am I continuing to "grossly overestimating al-Qaeda's reach and effect" here?

Besides, we were talking about Iraq, Strom, and whether or not al Qaeda is routinely destroying American main battle tanks. Which they're not. There's no need to move the goalposts to some global conversation.

-Tim

Stormbinder
07-08-2007, 04:56 PM
Besides, we were talking about Iraq, Strom, and whether or not al Qaeda is routinely destroying American main battle tanks. Which they're not. There's no need to move the goalposts to some global conversation.

-Tim

Not entirely. This particular sub-brunch of conversation started when you have replied to this post of mine :


I mean, think about it. These guys are routinely blowing up our best M1A2 battle tanks with their advanced IEDs in Iraq. I am not even mentioning Al Queda's 9-11 and pre 9-11 attacks. It's impossible to compare the level of sophistication of their earlier international terror acts with these lame gasoline bombs and terrible logistics of this London operation. Something is not right here.


In your reply you have expressed disbelief that IEDs have managed to disable any Abrams tanks in Iraq, much less "routinely". However notice that I was also referring to the earlier international acts by Al Queda in my post. You just chosen to focus on the Iraq/M1A2 part of it. (not that there is anything wrong with it, and I have agreed that you were closer to the truth than I am on that subject).

However I am not "moving the goalposts to some global conversation", I am simply returning to my original point.

Sorry if it looks as if I am doing some hairsplitting here, I just wanted to set the record straight, that's all.