The May NPD console sales thread

[forgeforsaken]

These seem to be the numbers, gleaned from various threads and press releases. Have at it folks.

DS 423k
WII 338k
PSP 221k
PS2 188k
360 155k
PS3 82k
GBA 81k

[jeffd]

Christ 338k for the Wii is just insane. That thing is selling like hotcakes.

[roguefrog]

How are the hotcake sells?

[Andrew Mayer]

How are the hotcake sells?

It's called a "sell processor".

[forgeforsaken]

It's called a "sell processor".

No no, the Wii is certainly not selling like those.

[John Reynolds]

How would've thougth that the Wii would win this generation of console wars (as it appears well on track of doing)? But more surprising to me is that the 360 is selling almost 2-to-1 against the PS3.

[Quaro]

With the current PS3 library and the huge price difference, I'm surprised the ratio is only 2-to-1. Seriously, it almost seems like a problem -- MS can only do 150k even when holding all the cards against Sony?

[jeffd]

John: IIRC the Wii still has a way to go to catch up to the 360 in the US. It's doing really well though.

I'm going to be interested to see how Wii sales continue. This is like the first month where I saw Wiis on shelves semi-regularly, so hopefully it's not quite as supply constrained as it was.

[rjcc]

I was one of the 82,000. the best thing about the ps3 so far is that picture album thing, really f'ing slick and easy to use.

I own no games and no blu-ray movies, downloaded the demos. F1 sucks and that was probably the game I wanted most so far, I haven't played resistance and ninja gaiden yet.

[Wholly Schmidt]

It's a race to see if Nintendo can get some games out for the Wii before gradually increasing installed base can get the word out to everyone else that "Hey, there aren't any games for the Wii!"

[Ryan Markel]

Another month with less than 100k PS3 sales. Ouch.

OTOH, I completely agree that the 360 number is a bit troubling, the Wii (and DS!!!) numbers are staggeringly indicative of Nintendo's success, and the PSP number I find not to be too shabby this month.

[Midnight Son]

PS2 still blows away next-gen. (The expensive ones, anyway.)

[Midnight Son]

Another month with less than 100k PS3 sales. Ouch.

OTOH, I completely agree that the 360 number is a bit troubling, the Wii (and DS!!!) numbers are staggeringly indicative of Nintendo's success, and the PSP number I find not to be too shabby this month.

Didn't the PSP have a price cut? Look Sony and Microsoft: There's a lesson there somewhere......

[Jazar]

Nothing will change the PS3 numbers until actual games are released. (And no Ninja Gaiden, you don't count)

[forgeforsaken]

Didn't the PSP have a price cut? Look Sony and Microsoft: There's a lesson there somewhere......

Exactly. MS screwed up going with the Elite instead of bringing the price cut. It's like their product management group hadn't been paying attention to the actual sales and they thought they were losing to the PS3. They've dropped about 20k a months since the Elite. $400 and $600 are still too big of a barrier for most people, and look what a $30 drop did for PSP. MS and Sony each need to drop 50 to 100 before November. I'd say MS should do it sooner than later so they can start to build some momentum back up.

[Ryan Markel]

Exactly. MS screwed up going with the Elite instead of bringing the price cut. It's like their product management group hadn't been paying attention to the actual sales and they thought they were losing to the PS3. They've dropped about 20k a months since the Elite. $400 and $600 are still too big of a barrier for most people, and look what a $30 drop did for PSP. MS and Sony each need to drop 50 to 100 before November. I'd say MS should do it sooner than later so they can start to build some momentum back up.

The PSP did well by doing so, and the price cut they enacted was basically just token; I think I used the word "insulting" at one point.

[Qmanol]

Is there anywhere that older NPD numbers are available? I'd be curious to graph a few of these trends.

[gamadict]

Despite the PS2's continued hardware strength, it hasn't been doing too much at the top end of the software charts we get to see. There are obviously fewer choices on the new consoles, but they still. I'd be interested to see total software revenue per platform

[runesword forger]

Is there anywhere that older NPD numbers are available? I'd be curious to graph a few of these trends.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6737866&postcount=146

To say Nintendo is on a roll is an understatement. Lost in the Wii hype is the fact that the DS is King. Alternative input for the win.

[Jeremy Johnsen]

I was one of the 82,000. the best thing about the ps3 so far is that picture album thing, really f'ing slick and easy to use.

I own no games and no blu-ray movies, downloaded the demos. F1 sucks and that was probably the game I wanted most so far, I haven't played resistance and ninja gaiden yet.
Wow, that sounds like a huge waste of money.

And I still never see Wii's on the shelves at Target. Absolutely crazy.

[Jason Becker]

The PS3 numbers didn't go any lower this month...I guess thats something.

[Rock8man]

The PS3 numbers didn't go any lower this month...I guess thats something.

That actually is something. I don't usually comment on these threads, but the PS3's persistence is kind of impressive to me. They continue to sell a decent amount even though there's hardly any games for the system at all. I guess what I'm saying is that if they're selling this many just based on the fact that its a Blu-Ray player, then maybe they'll do a lot better than most people think once they actually have some games come out for the system.

Wasn't there a website that someone linked to in the past which compared numbers from various launches onward? It was a website that let you put the PS3 numbers versus the Xbox and Gamecube numbers, etc. I've lost that link, does anyone know what I'm talking about?

[Ben Sones]

That actually is something. I don't usually comment on these threads, but the PS3's persistence is kind of impressive to me. They continue to sell a decent amount even though there's hardly any games for the system at all. I guess what I'm saying is that if they're selling this many just based on the fact that its a Blu-Ray player, then maybe they'll do a lot better than most people think once they actually have some games come out for the system.

The catch-22 is that with sales as bad as they are--half what the 360 is selling and a quarter what the Wii is selling--the games are all going to be coming out on other systems. People were willing to buy the PS2 and wait for the games, and the sales momentum the system had landed Sony a ton of developer support and a lot of great exclusives. That's not happening this time around, and if I were a producer, I'd be really, really nervous about making my game a PS3 exclusive at this point.

[Squirrel Killer]

The PS3 numbers didn't go any lower this month...I guess thats something.
Wasn't one of the spins on the April PS3 numbers that it was only a four reporting week month?

[Jason Cross]

How would've thougth that the Wii would win this generation of console wars (as it appears well on track of doing)?

As an industry, and as analysts/press, we need to have a more sophisticated view of "win" than simply "sold the most consoles." After all, the consoles aren't where you make all the money (even in Nintendo's case where they lose little to no money on console sales). And there are more companies out there than the first-party manufacturers.

The "winner" is going to be the system with the best combination of:
- reach (raw console sales combined with where they are sold, like emerging markets)
- money made for the console manufacturer (first-party game and peripheral sales, royalties, online subs, all that stuff)
- money made for third parties (games, peripherals, online sales and subs)
- influence on popular culture (will any name emerge as synonymous with "playing games" as Nintendo and Playstation have done in the past? Whose systems will we see characters use on TV shows, in movies, in music videos? And so on)

Now, it's quite possible that at the end of the day, Nintendo will be the "winner" of this generation by that standard as well.

But it is also true that, five years from now, either Sony or Microsoft may sell fewer systems but more total games, sell games more consistently, and make more money for the industry at large through game sales and online spending. Nobody yet knows which game (or games) we'll look back on in another five or six years and say that they came out of almost nowhere and dominated popular culture. Like Tomb Raider, Pokemon, or Grand Theft Auto. On which system will we find the next huge "it" game that isn't already part of Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony's arsenal?


The PS3 numbers didn't go any lower this month...I guess thats something.

Well, when they had three more days of sales and didn't sell any more, they actually sold fewer PS3s each day.

Oh, and both the 360 and PS3 need big price drops. I would love, just for about two months, the Wii's price advantage to disappear. I'd love to see the "real" 360 out there for $249, and even the PS3 (though that's not gonna happen), just for a couple of months so we can get a better idea of how much of the Wii's sales are buzz, and how much is affordability.

[RickH]

I'd love to see the "real" 360 out there for $249, and even the PS3 (though that's not gonna happen), just for a couple of months so we can get a better idea of how much of the Wii's sales are buzz, and how much is affordability.

"Affordability" doesn't get people up at 7am on a Sunday morning to get in line for a voucher to buy a system at 10am.

[rjcc]

Wow, that sounds like a huge waste of money.

And I still never see Wii's on the shelves at Target. Absolutely crazy.

actually, my impression of it is slightly better now that I have one. the hardware itself is certainly impressive, with the latest firmwares, features like background downloading and dvd upconversion, it's at least modern now. also, I loaded a bunch of pictures from my digital camera on, and the phot album feature is slick, plus it shares media from my wmp11 equipped laptop really easily.

of course, there still aren't any games I want to play, so, you know, there's that.

[Coca Cola Zero]

"Affordability" doesn't get people up at 7am on a Sunday morning to get in line for a voucher to buy a system at 10am.

Sure it does, just in two steps instead of one... scarcity makes them wait in lines and deal with vouchers, affordability makes Wiis scarce. The hype helps, but a system with tons of hype that isn't affordable would, well, be the PS3...

[RickH]

... affordability makes Wiis scarce.

Gamecubes were even more affordable, CCZ, and they were freely available at launch and at all times afterward.

[Rimbo]

Another month with less than 100k PS3 sales. Ouch.

One more month like this, and 3rd-party devs won't even bother to port to it. This is very, very bad.

[Contrai]

I don't think MS will cut the Xbox 360 price till at least after Halo 3. They probably won't officially cut the price until some time after Christmas but I'm pretty sure they'll probably give retailers like $100 vouchers during Christmas season like they did last year to spur sales.

The Wii hardware sales are looking pretty good, but I'd would still like to see some better support for in regards to third party software especially RPGs. Here's to hoping we'll see some announcements at E3.

The only good thing about the PS3 hardware is that it's probably at least made Blu-Ray moderately successful.

[Kyle Wilson]

One more month like this, and 3rd-party devs won't even bother to port to it. This is very, very bad.

Not for 3rd-party devs, it's not.

[RepoMan]

I don't think MS will cut the Xbox 360 price till at least after Halo 3.
With. They'll cut the price WITH Halo 3.

And they're sweating fucking bullets right now trying to get the 65nm hardware revision really, really, really super solid and reliable, in time for the Halo 3 price drop and the colossal shipment boost that'll come with it.

[Rimbo]

Not for 3rd-party devs, it's not.

True, that. :)

[Chris Nahr]

Howard Stringer (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c4dfbf38-1ac0-11dc-8bf0-000b5df10621.html) has found a new word for price cut: Sony will "refine" its business model.


Sir Howard Stringer, the chairman and chief executive of Sony Corp, said the electronics and entertainment company was trying to “refine” how much it could afford to cut the price of PlayStation 3 gaming consoles, saying there was “no question” consumers wanted the price to be lower. [...]

Sony fell short of its PS3 shipment target in the year just ended by 500,000 units, and analysts are expecting the games division to incur a loss of Y60bn ($488m) to Y70bn in the current year. [...]

Sony has a target of shipping 11m consoles this year. With production costs falling, some analysts expect Sony to cut prices by $100 before the crucial Christmas sales period.

[Chris Nahr]

And Sony PR director Dave Karraker (http://blog.us.playstation.com/2007/06/13/is-the-ps3-really-harder-to-develop-for/) says developers should stop bitching and learn some discipline, just as Ken Kutaragi intended:


This is an interesting question and hidden within the question is an enormously complex subject! If the game starts life on PS3, then man-hours per feature or costs related to asset production are comparable with industry norms. For that, you can include Xbox 360 and high-end PC games, and exclude PS2 and Wii. However, since PS3’s Cell processor allows MORE features - better physics, more complex graphical processing, lighting or sound, etc. — there is inevitably going to be more cost in supporting those extra features. It’s not that PS3 is harder to write for, it’s just that you can do more with it.


Now, it’s not without challenges:
1) SPUs are not ‘normal’ processors like the PPU. There is a trade-off between performance and versatility. A Ferrari is not the best car for a visit to Home Depot…

2) If you are porting:
If your game starts on Xbox 360 you will have to re-engineer aspects of the game to run properly on PS3. This means additional effort. Some developers have been complaining about this but I don’t believe we can solve that. Xbox 360 is a different machine with good, but lower powered hardware in a different architecture. Developers have to view them as two different machines not as a common platform.

3) If your game has heavy online use:
XBL provides more and better standard libraries for online gaming to developers. For the same features on PS3, developers have to do some extra work. We’re catching up, but there is a difference.

[JD]

Karraker once more, this time with a comment (http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16507) regarding the latest NPD stats:

"According to NPD data, May 2007 showed a 27.5% increase in total retail dollars generated year-over-year by the PlayStation brand in North America with total sales of $284 million. During the month, sales of PS3 were flat at 81,604 units. PSP witnessed a 39% increase in year-over-year sales thanks in part to the April price drop to $169, as well as our new marketing efforts with the 'Dude Get Your Own' campaign. PSP unit sales for May totaled 221,120. The PS2 also continued to be a strong performer during the month with unit sales of 187,765."
-Julian

[Jason Cross]

"Affordability" doesn't get people up at 7am on a Sunday morning to get in line for a voucher to buy a system at 10am.

Of course not. It doesn't get people shot for the damn console, either.

I personally know three people who own a Wii (and didn't camp out for it, but did do a fair amount of calling lots of stores and such). All of them want a 360 for various reasons - Forza, Halo 3, Crackdown, Dead Rising - but they all wince at the price. It's always "as soon as the price drops" with them. I know a few people who feel like that about the PS3, but they don't expect one price drop to be enough.

Clearly there is huge demand for the latest Nintendo console, particularly with all its buzz. But we don't know how well the Wii would be selling if it was $400, nor how well the 360/PS3 would be selling at $250. Price is certainly a factor, and all I'm saying is, I wish I knew how much.

[Shadarr]

I don't think it's any coincidence that the top four consoles all cost $250 or less. Yes, people won't buy crap just because it's cheap, but I think the lesson Sony and MS need to learn is that there is a price barrier at play, and they are on the wrong side of it.

[Ryan Markel]

And Sony PR director Dave Karraker (http://blog.us.playstation.com/2007/06/13/is-the-ps3-really-harder-to-develop-for/) says developers should stop bitching and learn some discipline, just as Ken Kutaragi intended:
Translation:

"Crazy Ken screwed us and now we have to live with it."

(Jury's still out for me on whether it was Kutaragi or the design-by-committee that I think happened with the PS3...)

And come on - telling developers that they're just being lazy and/or stupid by not developing for your system or not doing so very well is the stick approach if I've ever seen it.

Sony needs a carrot the size of fucking Kansas right now.

[JD]

Sony needs a carrot the size of fucking Kansas right now.
What for? To kill (http://www.quartertothree.com/game-talk/showpost.php?p=999551&postcount=10) the competitors?

-Julian

[MyNameIsWill]

Clearly there is huge demand for the latest Nintendo console, particularly with all its buzz. But we don't know how well the Wii would be selling if it was $400, nor how well the 360/PS3 would be selling at $250. Price is certainly a factor, and all I'm saying is, I wish I knew how much.

I do agree that price is a factor in perceived value. They see a Wii for about $200 (thanks to the free game) and they get a lot of value for that. Sony (and to a lesser extent Microsoft) haven't convinced consumers that the console is worth that much money.

BUT the Wii isn't $400. It seems like a waste to me to be wondering these pie-in-the-sky hypotheticals.

[Ben Sones]

It's not, and never will be, but the 360 is going to get cheaper, guaranteed. I, too, am curious to see how much sales are limited by price. I suspect the answer is: a whole lot. The 360 is actually a great console to have right now. Lots of development going on, and a strong library of games already on shelves. Lop off $100 and who knows? It might even be competitive with the Wii's monthly sales.

[Mark Asher]

It really does point out the need of a price cut for both the 360 and PS3. Sony’s hands may be tied a bit due to finances, but Microsoft has a huge warchest and could afford to lose more per sale of each 360. Every Wii sale represents a potentially lost 360/PS3 sale, too. Microsoft and Sony should be looking at that, too.

These numbers also make me think that if Sony does start rolling out a few hot games and cuts the price of the PS3, it will begin to match or outsell the 360 if Microsoft doesn’t do anything.

Every month without a price cut for the 360 or PS3 must make Nintendo execs smile until their faces break. Who knows? They may be ready to drop the Wii to $199 as soon as Microsoft or Sony cuts the price?

[noun]

They could certainly afford it, couldn't they? They've been making a profit on every Wii sold since the beginning. Maybe they'll fuck with MS and lower the price just a little bit, to $229 or something, and stay within their profit range.

[RickH]

It really does point out the need of a price cut for both the 360 and PS3. Sony’s hands may be tied a bit due to finances, but Microsoft has a huge warchest and could afford to lose more per sale of each 360.

You know, that's been the standard line for years. But I think that MS has drawn a line for the Xbox division: make money this gen or get shut down. Everything MS is doing with regard to the 360 and XBL Marketplace is consistent with a mandate to make money or else.

[Ben Sones]

Maybe, but if they don't get their install base up from last gen, it's not going to happen. Microsoft, more than anyone, knows that you have to spend money to make money. And they've publically stated that they realize that reducing the price of the 360 is going to be key to success.

[KaoFloppy]

Derail: I'm curious about how many Wii games actually got sold? I personally have not bought any games with the Wii after 2 months, and I wonder if that is the norm for other Wii owners. Anecdotally, 3 other wii owners that I know of bought 1 more other game each, only. All of those games were Nintendo games, too.

[Angrycoder]

There is an even greater sales gap in Japan. The Wii outsold the PS3 ~ 7:1 and outsold the 360 ~25:1. Last week's sales numbers in Japan:

Wii 64,529
PS3 8,776
Xbox 360 2,553

Source: Eurogamer
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=77829

[Mark Asher]

They could certainly afford it, couldn't they? They've been making a profit on every Wii sold since the beginning. Maybe they'll fuck with MS and lower the price just a little bit, to $229 or something, and stay within their profit range.

They probably won't do anything until sales slow down or the competition cuts prices.

I think they'd figure out how to get the price down to $199. In the past, that has been the magic price point where sales really jumped.

[Moggraider]

Gamecubes were even more affordable, CCZ, and they were freely available at launch and at all times afterward.


Bollocks. There was good launch-period hysteria for the Cube. Everyone still thought the system was gonna do great.

http://news.com.com/Nintendo+reports+record+GameCube+launch/2100-1040_3-276374.html is one example.

[instant0]

What is it with the XBOX/360 that makes it sell so poorly in Japan?

[MyNameIsWill]

Derail: I'm curious about how many Wii games actually got sold? I personally have not bought any games with the Wii after 2 months, and I wonder if that is the norm for other Wii owners. Anecdotally, 3 other wii owners that I know of bought 1 more other game each, only. All of those games were Nintendo games, too.
Well, Wii Play and Mario Party 8 sold over a half million combined last month:


1. Pokemon Diamond - DS (Nintendo) - 331,000 units
2. Mario Party 8 - Wii (Nintendo) - 314,000 units
3. Spider-Man 3 - PS2 (Activision) - 249,000 units
4. Pokemon Pearl - DS (Nintendo) - 238,000 units
5. Wii Play - Wii (Nintendo) - 227,000 units
6. Forza Motorsport 2 - Xbox 360 (Microsoft) - 217,000 units
7. Guitar Hero II - Xbox 360 (Activision) - 184,000 units
8. Spider-Man 3 - Xbox 360 (Activision) - 140,000 units
9. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars - Xbox 360 (Electronic Arts) - 138,000 units
10. Guitar Hero II - PS2 (Activision) - 131,000 units

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14333

[Charles]

Derail: I'm curious about how many Wii games actually got sold? I personally have not bought any games with the Wii after 2 months, and I wonder if that is the norm for other Wii owners.

Yes, I am very curious about the attach rate. I've heard that many people are buying Wiis and then only playing Wii Sports. If this is true, and you don't count Wii Sports as a software sale, then the attach rate could theoretically be below one... which will mean that while the Wii looks to be doing good... third party developers are going to be very wary about jumping to the platform. A ten million user base isn't worth anything if the owners aren't buying games for it.

[DaveC]

http://chazums.shackspace.com/Sales.png - a graph of sales since November.

[Matthew Gallant]

What is it with the XBOX/360 that makes it sell so poorly in Japan?
Same thing that makes a console sell poorly anywhere: not enough games the market is interested in.

[instant0]

http://chazums.shackspace.com/Sales.png - a graph of sales since November.

Never realised just how big a impact December had on sales before I saw that graph. :-)

Seeing how little increase the Wii got, I guess delivery problems caused them to sell a lot less than they should have.. Have only now managed
to see a store with the WII in stock.

Wonder what caused the sudden bump in February for the DS though. Having that chart overlaid with important relases/price cuts would be very interesting.

[Andrew Mayer]

Same thing that makes a console sell poorly anywhere: not enough games the market is interested in.

And, like it or not, there's a built-in cultural bias. Or at least I've been reading about one for the last 20 years or so.

[Fugitive]

Same thing that makes a console sell poorly anywhere: not enough games the market is interested in.
Bad marketing (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34cQez8XesI) probably doesn't help.

[RickH]

Derail: I'm curious about how many Wii games actually got sold? I personally have not bought any games with the Wii after 2 months, and I wonder if that is the norm for other Wii owners. Anecdotally, 3 other wii owners that I know of bought 1 more other game each, only. All of those games were Nintendo games, too.

I've bought:
Rayman Raving Rabbids
Elebits
Excite Truck
Zelda
Super Paper Mario
Wario Ware
Wii Play

Thanks to GameFly, I haven't bought:
TH Downhill Jam
Mario Party 8
Super Monkey Ball
Red Steel

[Matthew Gallant]

And, like it or not, there's a built-in cultural bias.
I'm pretty sure the Japanese are not innately opposed to American culture. I can tell from seeing the latest music videos and the clothes and the weird commercials they pay Hollywood stars lots of money to make. Oh, and don't forget engrish.com.

No, I'm pretty sure it's because there's only been about three games released in Japan that were system sellers. And Microsoft is still just trickling new titles into the pipeline.

It will be interesting to see if Trusty Bell Starring Frederick Fucking Chopin moves a good deal of units (it released this week).

[Eightball]

Gamecubes were even more affordable, CCZ, and they were freely available at launch and at all times afterward.

Gamecubes weren't featured on Oprah, and before you deride that, don't underestimate the strength that her brand brings. I used to work in a Borders, any book that was mentioned by Oprah, no matter how crappy, was an instant mega-best seller. I'm not very surprised to see the Wii have similar success.

It's like Tickle Me Nintendo.

[Kevin Grey]

Yes, I am very curious about the attach rate. I've heard that many people are buying Wiis and then only playing Wii Sports. If this is true, and you don't count Wii Sports as a software sale, then the attach rate could theoretically be below one... which will mean that while the Wii looks to be doing good... third party developers are going to be very wary about jumping to the platform. A ten million user base isn't worth anything if the owners aren't buying games for it.

4.97 as of March:

http://www.beyond3d.com/content/articles/47

[Kevin Grey]

Bollocks. There was good launch-period hysteria for the Cube. Everyone still thought the system was gonna do great.

http://news.com.com/Nintendo+reports+record+GameCube+launch/2100-1040_3-276374.html is one example.

Gamecube sales in North America it's first May: 80k (remarkably close to current PS3 levels)

[Rimbo]

Yeah. If you're aware at all of the history of the game console market, you know that the PS3 is going to be a failure; it will fail to make significant revenue for Sony, and it will fail to provide tons of great games for those who spent six bills on it.

One more month of sales like this, and it's all over for the PS3.

[Andrew Mayer]

Gamecubes weren't featured on Oprah, and before you deride that, don't underestimate the strength that her brand brings. I used to work in a Borders, any book that was mentioned by Oprah, no matter how crappy, was an instant mega-best seller. I'm not very surprised to see the Wii have similar success.

It's like Tickle Me Nintendo.

Bingo. Nintendo is fantastic at mainstream media penetration once their product is rolling.

I fully expect the Wii to be a bigger "must have" this Christmas season than it was during the last one.

[Moggraider]

Gamecube sales in North America it's first May: 80k (remarkably close to current PS3 levels)


The other guy had said "at launch." Besides, the PS2 was also slow out of the gate and didn't hit its stride til its second holiday. Not that the PS3 is any PS2.

[forgeforsaken]

The PS2 was also slow out of the gate. Not that the PS3 is any PS2. But PS2 didn't have any real competition at the time.

[DaveC]

But PS2 didn't have any real competition at the time.

This is a major point. At the time the Xbox was a non-event, the GC wasn't out and the DC was submereged by no budget, poor marketing and lack of EA support. Huge difference now.

[Kevin Grey]

The other guy had said "at launch." Besides, the PS2 was also slow out of the gate and didn't hit its stride til its second holiday. Not that the PS3 is any PS2.

First May North American sales: 400k+

And the point about the Cube comparison is that sales for the Cube fell flat on their face it's first January on the market. So trying to write off Wii's seventh month sales on the face of "yeah but there was a lot of demand for the Cube initially too" and "well it's still the Nintendo faithful buying the consoles" (not used in this thread but I've seen it elsewhere) just don't fly.

[MyNameIsWill]

Having that chart overlaid with important relases/price cuts would be very interesting.

When do you think you'll have it ready?

[instant0]

When do you think you'll have it ready?

When its done.

:-)

[Jason Cross]

They could certainly afford it, couldn't they? They've been making a profit on every Wii sold since the beginning.

I don't think they have. The Wii's BOM cost is probably pretty close to its wholesale price (That Toyokeizai Online breakdown didn't include a few important bits and seems a little suspect). But tack on shipping and marketing costs like end caps and stuff, and they probably weren't profitable with the first couple million units. Close to it, though - break-even or only very slightly in the red.

After several months of manufacture the costs drop a little bit, and I'm sure they're turning a profit now (if you don't consider R&D costs and the like). They could easily afford to drop the price, but I don't see why they would when it's flying off shelves at $249. Even if the 360 (the real 360) becomes $299, which it totally should, I think the Wii would be fine to stay at $249 with Wii Sports through the end of the year.

[Jazar]

Yeah. If you're aware at all of the history of the game console market, you know that the PS3 is going to be a failure; it will fail to make significant revenue for Sony, and it will fail to provide tons of great games for those who spent six bills on it.

One more month of sales like this, and it's all over for the PS3.

Rimbo you're being overly dramatic. What would make the PS3 sell more this month then the last? The hot new "GO! Puzzle" PSN title or the multi-platform mega blockbuster "Rise of the Silver Surfer"? Consoles aren't measured by their Spring-Summer sales. It's the winter season that brings in more then most other months combined.

[John Reynolds]

As an industry, and as analysts/press, we need to have a more sophisticated view of "win" than simply "sold the most consoles." After all, the consoles aren't where you make all the money (even in Nintendo's case where they lose little to no money on console sales). And there are more companies out there than the first-party manufacturers.

Well, what you express in a short post isn't always what's entirely on your mind. I haven't owned a console since my Atari 2600 and actually follow this industry very little, but one thing I do know is that every techno-geek at work owns a Wii and only one guys owns a 360 or PS3 (same guy, in fact, owns all 3). All the Wii owners, though, are becoming increasingly vocal about the Wii's current library.

[Qmanol]

Rimbo you're being overly dramatic. What would make the PS3 sell more this month then the last? The hot new "GO! Puzzle" PSN title or the multi-platform mega blockbuster "Rise of the Silver Surfer"? Consoles aren't measured by their Spring-Summer sales. It's the winter season that brings in more then most other months combined.

What he's saying, is that every month that the PS3 experiences dismal sales, more and more 3rd party support leaves, or (and I think this may be more damning in the end) more potential exclusives go multi-platform. Dunno why he thinks that this specific month will be so bad, but something needs to happen ASAP.

[RepoMan]

One more month of sales like this, and it's all over for the PS3.
Disagree.

It's all over now. At least, in terms of the PS3 remaining in third place (in units sold and in software total revenue) for this whole generation.

Unless, that is, Microsoft is stupid and doesn't drop the price by $100 around the time of the Halo 3 launch, which I am very sure they'll do.

[KaoFloppy]

4.97 as of March:
http://www.beyond3d.com/content/articles/47
That number...it includes or excludes Virtual Console games? *narrows eyes*... I'm thinking yes...

Wonder what caused the sudden bump in February for the DS though. Having that chart overlaid with important relases/price cuts would be very interesting.
Ask NeoGAF. Someone there made this before, last year. At the very least, it had the PS2/Xbox/GC/DC sales on it, with arrows pointing out MGS2 launch, FFX launch, Halo launch. Too bad I didn't save the jpg.

PS3 is d0med next month.
Not yet, but in North America, I would believe that the Madden crowd has moved to X360, and will never move back to PS3. That would be a loss of a pretty big chunk of the market. So in a way, I think PS3 was d0med last year! (But, 5 years from now, I will buy a PS3, to replace my limping-for-years PS2.)

[LesJarvis]

That number...it includes or excludes Virtual Console games? *narrows eyes*... I'm thinking yes...

I'm inclined to agree. That number either includes or excludes Virtual Console games. :)

[Michael Fortson]

The last few months have firmly established the PS3 trend as trailing last year's 360 numbers. Next-gen sales as a whole are still a depressingly small part of the market.

[Jazar]

Unless, that is, Microsoft is stupid and doesn't drop the price by $100 around the time of the Halo 3 launch, which I am very sure they'll do.

Microsoft will not drop the 360 price around Halo 3.

[Michael Fortson]

Yeah. If you're aware at all of the history of the game console market, you know that the PS3 is going to be a failure; it will fail to make significant revenue for Sony, and it will fail to provide tons of great games for those who spent six bills on it.

One more month of sales like this, and it's all over for the PS3.
Hi, my name is the PS2; have we met?

This situation is still unprecedented in many ways. Previous (tech) gen outselling next-gen by a large margin. A single company's previous part far outselling not only their own new offering but their biggest competitor's as well.

It's not something you have enough evidence to predict the outcome of. You can continue to guess, though.

[Moggraider]

First May North American sales: 400k+

And the point about the Cube comparison is that sales for the Cube fell flat on their face it's first January on the market. So trying to write off Wii's seventh month sales on the face of "yeah but there was a lot of demand for the Cube initially too" and "well it's still the Nintendo faithful buying the consoles" (not used in this thread but I've seen it elsewhere) just don't fly.


Where are you getting your numbers? Game Theory and other podcasts have been saying the PS3's doing just fine compared to how the PS2 did at the start. I agree that the Wii is doing and will do great, though.

[deepruntramp]

Every Wii sale represents a potentially lost 360/PS3 sale, too.
No way in hell. The Wii's library is still far too weak to hold the attention of anyone but casuals who wouldn't think of buying a more expensive system anyway.

[Juan Rayo]

No way in hell. The Wii's library is still far too weak to hold the attention of anyone but casuals who wouldn't think of buying a more expensive system anyway.

A bit of a generalization? I have been considering a 360 for a while, and the only thing stopping me is mortal fear of having it fail (Honduras is NOT a great country to get a replacement unit). I have a Wii.

[Matthew Gallant]

Disagree.

It's all over now.
It was all over the split second Kaz Hirai finished saying "599 U.S. Dollars".

I'd be really interested to know whatever made them think they could pull that off.

[Jasper Phillips]

That's what I see too. The PS3 has been still born from the start, and it'd take a miracle to save it now. $600 (+HDTV cost) makes even die hard gamers think about what else they could spend the money on.

[deepruntramp]

A bit of a generalization? I have been considering a 360 for a while, and the only thing stopping me is mortal fear of having it fail (Honduras is NOT a great country to get a replacement unit). I have a Wii.
Unless you regularly have guests over to play Wii Sports/Rayman/Excite Truck, the only quality games with meat to them are Zelda and Super Paper Mario. Unless there are other compelling non-party games on the Wii I've not heard of?

[Shadarr]

Unless, that is, Microsoft is stupid and doesn't drop the price by $100 around the time of the Halo 3 launch, which I am very sure they'll do.
A special Halo-branded bundle would serve the same purpose and make them more money. They don't really have any incentive to drop the price. They can't drop it enough to compete with the Wii, and they don't need to drop it to beat the PS3.

[DaveC]

It's not something you have enough evidence to predict the outcome of. You can continue to guess, though.

So, at what point can we declare things are dire for Sony? I'd just like to have a metric that you approve of.

[Shadarr]

It was all over the split second Kaz Hirai finished saying "599 U.S. Dollars".

I'd be really interested to know whatever made them think they could pull that off.
The same thing that fuels all of Sony's high-profile blunders: hubris.

[Juan Rayo]

Unless you regularly have guests over to play Wii Sports/Rayman/Excite Truck, the only quality games with meat to them are Zelda and Super Paper Mario. Unless there are other compelling non-party games on the Wii I've not heard of?

Ya I see what you mean now.

[mouselock]

Well, Wii Play and Mario Party 8 sold over a half million combined last month:

Wii play is still a $10 game. I don't get why people treat it as if it's actually selling as a game, instead of a controller with a $10 disc packed in.

Basing any type of argument on how well Wii play did/did not sell, as long as it's a controller/game package, seems pretty silly. I don't have the slightest clue what games are in Wii play, but I'm pretty sure when I buy a Wii I'll also buy Wii play because just about *any* games are worth $10, and I'll need an extra controller anyway.

[Mark Asher]

No way in hell. The Wii's library is still far too weak to hold the attention of anyone but casuals who wouldn't think of buying a more expensive system anyway.

I'm talking about laying down the cash for a Wii. A lot of us don't have the disposable cash to buy every system. We pick and choose, and that $300 (Wii plus wiimote) is $300 we don't have to put towards a 360 or PS3.

If I'm having trouble pulling the trigger on $400 for a 360 or $600 for a PS3, I'm going to have even more trouble after I spend $300 for a Wii.

[mouselock]

I'm talking about laying down the cash for a Wii. A lot of us don't have the disposable cash to buy every system. We pick and choose, and that $300 (Wii plus wiimote) is $300 we don't have to put towards a 360 or PS3.

If I'm having trouble pulling the trigger on $400 for a 360 or $600 for a PS3, I'm going to have even more trouble after I spend $300 for a Wii.

But the question is would you, as a hardcore gamer, lay down the $300 for a Wii?

I had one in my hands before I bought my 360. A nice, no-gouging bundle at Costco even. Carried it around with me in the cart for a bit. Then put it back. Why?

Because when it all comes down to it, the only things I'd be playing on the Wii would be Super Paper Mario and/or Zelda for the better part of the rest of the year. Sure Raving Rabbids and Elebits and Trauma Center and the like look fun, but they don't strike me as the type of games necessary to hold my interest for the next 7-8 months. They do strike me as the type of games I'd want to have around when I get married next March, though, and I'm looking for games to play with my wife instead of stuff to play by myself while she's still far away. While I'm not saying hardcore gamers are all antisocial bastards like myself, I do think they're pretty different types of gaming, and I see little evidence that the Wii has anything to offer to the crowd of folks who want more Halo and Dead Rising and GTA type games. And that would seem, at least, to be a large chunk of the market pre-Wii based on what did/didn't sell for PS2 and XBox.

[Rimbo]

Rimbo you're being overly dramatic. What would make the PS3 sell more this month then the last? The hot new "GO! Puzzle" PSN title or the multi-platform mega blockbuster "Rise of the Silver Surfer"? Consoles aren't measured by their Spring-Summer sales. It's the winter season that brings in more then most other months combined.

Well, go tell that to the analyst who claimed that several third-party developers had said as much.

[Ben Sones]

So, at what point can we declare things are dire for Sony? I'd just like to have a metric that you approve of.

I'd just like to point out that back in December, it was all about "just wait until we see the numbers for how Sony did the first few months after launch." Because those numbers were totally going to show that there was incredible demand for the PS3, and they were easy to find in stores because Sony was doing a miraculous job restocking. Then when we saw those numbers and discovered that they were actually easy to find because, big surprise, nobody was buying them, it was "let's see how they do over the next six months." Or, alternately, "let's see how they do once some big games like Virtua Fighter 5 and Motorstorm hit." Now that we've seen that the answer to that is "pretty badly," I guess we're left with "We'll just have to wait and see how they do next holiday season. That will be the real moment of truth!" Or, we could just skip ahead and go with "We'll have to wait until next generation to really say how well they did this generation."

I mean, seriously--Sony is eyeball-deep in the shit and sinking fast at this point. They'd need to pull off a serious hail mary to pull off anything other than a worldwide third place this generation. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it seems pretty goddamn unlikely.

[Kevin Grey]

Where are you getting your numbers? Game Theory and other podcasts have been saying the PS3's doing just fine compared to how the PS2 did at the start. I agree that the Wii is doing and will do great, though.

I take that number back- it was for May 2002, the PS2's second May on the market, not the first. Can't find numbers for the first.

[Rimbo]

Hi, my name is the PS2; have we met?

In what way was the PS2 any different from anything that happened before or since? It succeeded in the same way and for the same reasons that every console before or since ever has.

Nothing new happened with the PS2, and nothing new is happening now.

While I'm probably relying too much on the words of that analyst from a month or so back, I'm actually inclined to agree with RepoMan: The trigger has been pulled, and we're just waiting for the same pattern that has existed since the 1970s to repeat itself once more.

[Gunmetal]

I take that number back- it was for May 2002, the PS2's second May on the market, not the first. Can't find numbers for the first.
Those numbers do seem to indicate the Wii has more in common with the PS2 than the 360 is, if the PS2 sold 400k in its 2nd May and the 360 did 155k.
Why aren't people buying the 360? Is it solely the price? The library is very strong at this point in its life. There's an incredible amount of competition, probably more than we ever seen before in the marketplace between the Wii and the PS2

[RickH]

I don't think they have. The Wii's BOM cost is probably pretty close to its wholesale price (That Toyokeizai Online breakdown didn't include a few important bits and seems a little suspect). But tack on shipping and marketing costs like end caps and stuff, and they probably weren't profitable with the first couple million units. Close to it, though - break-even or only very slightly in the red.

After several months of manufacture the costs drop a little bit, and I'm sure they're turning a profit now (if you don't consider R&D costs and the like). They could easily afford to drop the price, but I don't see why they would when it's flying off shelves at $249. Even if the 360 (the real 360) becomes $299, which it totally should, I think the Wii would be fine to stay at $249 with Wii Sports through the end of the year.

Another factor: who only has one set of controllers? The "party game" system needs lots of controllers, and at $60/set, I don't think Nintendo's been in the red for one single moment of the Wii's retail life.

[Rimbo]

Why aren't people buying the 360? Is it solely the price? The library is very strong at this point in its life. There's an incredible amount of competition, probably more than we ever seen before in the marketplace between the Wii and the PS2

It's never solely one thing. The short answer, because I am too lazy to type the long answer, is that the 360 just doesn't offer anything compelling over the last generation hardware, and doesn't have any appeal beyond the same crowd who bought PS2's and Xboxes.

[runesword forger]

I take that number back- it was for May 2002, the PS2's second May on the market, not the first. Can't find numbers for the first.

Found It (circa May 2001):

The PlayStation 2 console has sold approximately 2.74 million units at retail in the U.S. through May since launching last October. As reported by NPD, 281,320 PlayStation 2 units were sold at retail during May. NPD reports monthly U.S. retail sales on either a four or five week basis. When normalized to reflect the actual number of days in May, May unit sales were approximately 317,129. The chart below shows the number of PlayStation 2 units sold at retail since October as reported by NPD and on a normalized basis.

As the chart demonstrates, PlayStation 2 retail sales peaked in March, when 505,173 units were sold on a normalized basis. Until March, we believe that demand was constricted by a limited supply of PlayStation 2 consoles at retail.

Interestingly, the Wii, though launching a month later, is almost exactly in line with the PS2 in North American sales. However, the PS2 went on to have a killer fall and winter game lineup and blunt the launches of the Xbox and Gamecube.

[Kevin Grey]

Great find. Really puts into perspective anyone claiming that "PS3's start is similar to PS2's". As you note, it's the Wii that has the same install base. PS3 is at half the pace of PS2 and falling.

[MyNameIsWill]

A special Halo-branded bundle would serve the same purpose and make them more money. They don't really have any incentive to drop the price. They can't drop it enough to compete with the Wii, and they don't need to drop it to beat the PS3.
Well if they bundle the game for the same price, it's kind of like lowering the price of the unit. They're definitely going to try to increase the perceived value somehow whether that's by actually lowering the price or giving you a free game.

[Moggraider]

Great find. Really puts into perspective anyone claiming that "PS3's start is similar to PS2's". As you note, it's the Wii that has the same install base. PS3 is at half the pace of PS2 and falling.


It's not my claim, it's Game Theory's, and Gamespot's Hotspot, and other sources, to put the sales of the platform in a better perspective because of all the naysaying. PS3 was faster to reach some number of millions than the PS2 was; I've forgotten. I'm not saying I'm totally happy with my $600 upscaling PS2, but things will probably pick up.


Found It (circa May 2001):

The PlayStation 2 console has sold approximately 2.74 million units at retail in the U.S. through May since launching last October. As reported by NPD, 281,320 PlayStation 2 units were sold at retail during May. NPD reports monthly U.S. retail sales on either a four or five week basis. When normalized to reflect the actual number of days in May, May unit sales were approximately 317,129. The chart below shows the number of PlayStation 2 units sold at retail since October as reported by NPD and on a normalized basis.

As the chart demonstrates, PlayStation 2 retail sales peaked in March, when 505,173 units were sold on a normalized basis. Until March, we believe that demand was constricted by a limited supply of PlayStation 2 consoles at retail.

Interestingly, the Wii, though launching a month later, is almost exactly in line with the PS2 in North American sales. However, the PS2 went on to have a killer fall and winter game lineup and blunt the launches of the Xbox and Gamecube.

Where is this from? It's not coming up in Google.

[Quaro]

Bundle in Planet Earth Blueray and a good game, and I'd be at least a little tempted.

[Mite51]

Unless you regularly have guests over to play Wii Sports/Rayman/Excite Truck, the only quality games with meat to them are Zelda and Super Paper Mario. Unless there are other compelling non-party games on the Wii I've not heard of?

Mario Strikers Charged!! Buy it!

[Jason Cross]

Another factor: who only has one set of controllers? The "party game" system needs lots of controllers, and at $60/set, I don't think Nintendo's been in the red for one single moment of the Wii's retail life.

Absolutely. Their attach rate looks really high because they're counting Wii Sports, people are buying Wii Play as a second controller (and it counts as a game), and then they're buying Zelda or some other game...

However close they were on the cost/price ratio for the actual console itself, each customer was profitable from day one because they bought a second controller, second game (from Nintendo no less), overpriced component cables, or what-have-you.

So yeah, the Wii as a total venture has been profitable from day one. But the actual system itself was probably sold at cost or a small loss at first.

[Andrew Mayer]

So yeah, the Wii as a total venture has been profitable from day one. But the actual system itself was probably sold at cost or a small loss at first.

Well maybe in terms of recouping pre-production costs for the fab. But looking at that box and what's in it I'd be surprised if it cost them $50.

It's an overclocked GameCube and a decent amount Ram and I think that a new Microwave has built in WiFi these days.

I don't think that the directional technology is that expensive either. I thought I read an interview where the company President was talking up their low cost. And shiny white plastic isn't selling for all that much these days either.

[Rimbo]

Good Wifi (we're talking top-of-the-line Atheros dual-band a/b/g) goes for about $10...in small volumes. Good Enough Wifi is even less. Good Enough Wifi in millions is dirt.

[RickH]

Good Wifi (we're talking top-of-the-line Atheros dual-band a/b/g) goes for about $10...in small volumes. Good Enough Wifi is even less. Good Enough Wifi in millions is dirt.

And yet MS didn't see fit to throw it into the Elite.

[Moggraider]

Why would they, when they're raking in $100 for wireless adapters? Fucks.

[MyNameIsWill]

Why would they, when they're raking in $100 for wireless adapters? Fucks.

Their excuse for not including it in the Elite was because only 20% of XBL members were connected using WiFi. Still, 20% of 3 million or so is a good chunk of change for Microsoft.


It was all over the split second Kaz Hirai finished saying "599 U.S. Dollars".

I'd be really interested to know whatever made them think they could pull that off.

If the games were there and if Blu-Ray takes off, the PS3 offers a pretty damn compelling value prop. I don't think Sony expected third-parties to jump ship as quickly as they did or high-def DVD to be taking off as slowly as it is.

[Ben Sones]

Their excuse for not including it in the Elite was because only 20% of XBL members were connected using WiFi.

Have they considered that some of those people may want to connect by WiFi, but elected to string cables instead because the 360's WiFi solution is too expensive?

[Michael Fortson]

I'd just like to point out that back in December, it was all about "just wait until we see the numbers for how Sony did the first few months after launch." Because those numbers were totally going to show that there was incredible demand for the PS3, and they were easy to find in stores because Sony was doing a miraculous job restocking.

The problem with that line of reasoning, Ben, is this: they actually did do a very good job of restocking, and in-store post-launch sales during November and December were strong as a result. So no -- people didn't know what they were talking about if they pointed to in-store sightings as definitive proof of one thing and one thing only: poor demand. Reality -- as it tends to be, and which I labored to point out at the time -- was slightly more complicated than that.

I'm sure the point of all this is lost on many people accustomed to simple bimodal "if you're not with me, then you are my enemy!" logic though. That's the peril of commenting on a topic so laden with fanboy-inflamed claims and counter-claims. You can't really have a discussion about anything that doesn't fall along clear-cut, simple to understand lines of reasoning that fall unambiguously into either "you win" or "you lose" outcomes.

[Ben Sones]

In-store sales were good compared to what, exactly? The Xbox 360's "worst launch in the history of videogames" numbers?

[Michael Fortson]

Have they considered that some of those people may want to connect by WiFi, but elected to string cables instead because the 360's WiFi solution is too expensive?
Exactly. It's a bullshit answer.

[rjcc]

The problem with that line of reasoning, Ben, is this: they actually did do a very good job of restocking, and in-store post-launch sales during November and December were strong as a result. So no -- people didn't know what they were talking about if they pointed to in-store sightings as definitive proof of one thing and one thing only: poor demand. Reality -- as it tends to be, and which I labored to point out at the time -- was slightly more complicated than that.


so in reality, demand was high in in november and december, it just fell off the table in january, february, march, april and may when people found out that the console STILL cost $600.

that makes perfect sense.

only a blathering idiot would suggest that demand wasn't quite as high as sony had hoped in november and december, and thats why the inevitable drop off from the immediate launch hysteria was as steep as its been.

[Michael Fortson]

In-store sales were good compared to what, exactly? The Xbox 360's "worst launch in the history of videogames" numbers?
Compared to anything recent, really. They were just backwards: their launch-day availability was abysmal, but they turned in a couple of good launch-window months anyway. It just all came on the sales floor.

[Moggraider]

In-store sales were good compared to what, exactly? The Xbox 360's "worst launch in the history of videogames" numbers?


Sony has at least done a good job with a rapidly rolled-out, well-stocked global launch, which is what makes the sales numbers comparable to PS2's launch, though admittedly they'll sputter for a while. Look at VG Chartz and align the launches to see that PS3 isn't doing much worse than 360 was at first. Of course, I don't think PS3 will get the boost this holiday that the 360 did. (I know VG Chartz has questionable methods for extrapolating current numbers, but their charts on past numbers are quite handy).

[Michael Fortson]

only a blathering idiot would suggest that demand wasn't quite as high as sony had hoped in november and december, and thats why the inevitable drop off from the immediate launch hysteria was as steep as its been.
Only a blathering idiot would fail to comprehend the actual argument being made in this case, but as has already been suggested, that failure is unsurprising.

[Michael Fortson]

Look at VG Chartz and align the launches to see that PS3 isn't doing much worse than 360 was at first.
What's more bothersome than the numbers-to-date is the trajectory. The graph ain't pretty, and it's a good indication of why Sony's upper brass is making more noise about trying to do something about it.

[Ben Sones]

Look at VG Chartz

Yeah, look at the site with numbers so fictitious that it's an instant and permanent banning offense to link to them on the GAF. Hint: their numbers on the PS2 launch are way off. We covered this in our last "is the PS3 DOMED?" thread back in December, but I'm not surprised that we're rehashing the same arguments again.

So to reiterate whoever said it earlier: can we all just agree on some specific benchmark for when Sony can start to worry? Or would you guys prefer to keep it an unreachable moving target?

[Michael Fortson]

Just cite something definitive. Like that trajectory :)

Actually, though, it's still a complicated thing. The market, that is. Who can say how long this "generation" will last, and whether or not publishers will give up on any of the platforms in a long-term meaningful way? Why are PS2 sales still so strong? Who's buying those? What's up with the Wii, and what does that say about this generation in general? It's just weird.

[Ben Sones]

Can you name any one console, in the history of this industry, that has ever turned around from being in such a solid third place (both in terms of way fewer LTD sales that either of its two competitors, and also way fewer monthly sales than either of its two competitors) and ended up going on to be successful in any meaningful way? I mean, I'll grant you that there's a first time for everything, but it still boggles my mind that anyone could look at the PS3's current status and not think that Sony should be worried.

[Andrew Mayer]

Can you name any one console, in the history of this industry, that has ever turned around from being in such a solid third place (both in terms of way fewer LTD sales that either of its two competitors, and also way fewer monthly sales than either of its two competitors) and ended up going on to be successful in any meaningful way? I mean, I'll grant you that there's a first time for everything, but it still boggles my mind that anyone could look at the PS3's current status and not think that Sony should be worried.

I couldn't agree more.

Things aren't "weird", it's just that there's been a shift. Sony got caught on the crack, and MS is on the edge.

[Michael Fortson]

I think they should be worried, but I also think they still have time to do something about it, partly because of the way the generational lines keep being stretched by the purchases that people are making right now.

[Michael Fortson]

To expand a bit on that, I think there is eventually going to be a very clear and very strong high-definition gaming generation, and I think that the longer the Wii and PS2 continue to outsell everything else, the longer that generation is going to take to really get going, and the longer Sony has to get their system in order.

The trajectory problem in comparison to the 360, though, I think they will move to fix -- and fix quickly. We'll see whether or not they're successful in that.

[rjcc]

Only a blathering idiot would fail to comprehend the actual argument being made in this case, but as has already been suggested, that failure is unsurprising.

Thats it, you're not wrong and obtuse, it's just that no one understands your argument.

or...they understand it perfectly and you're wrong and obtuse.

[Andrew Mayer]

To expand a bit on that, I think there is eventually going to be a very clear and very strong high-definition gaming generation, and I think that the longer the Wii and PS2 continue to outsell everything else, the longer that generation is going to take to really get going, and the longer Sony has to get their system in order.

Once they lose publishers they're gone for the life of that console. Titles being canceled or not started now means no new software in 2009. Also people just won't get trained, and engineers won't be learning how to exploit the power of the console.

The good news for the publishers on the Wii is that the average cycles are shorter, so they were able to respond to platform's success in time for titles to show up by the end of the year.

[Midnight Son]

Rock Band might make me buy a next gen console. There are some problems though:

1) Price of the PS3 is way too high.
2) Price of the 360 is too high and I don't trust it's reliability at all.

So: Guitar Hero 80's and GH3 on PS2 for the win!

[Michael Fortson]

Thats it, you're not wrong and obtuse, it's just that no one understands your argument.

Well let's look at the facts: you're the one who replied to me while arguing against positions I didn't take. Clearly the line of discussion wasn't something you expected; no argument there. That didn't stop you from attempting to participate anyway.

[Michael Fortson]

Once they lose publishers they're gone for the life of that console. That's typically the way things have gone in the past -- no argument to that extent.
Titles being canceled or not started now means no new software in 2009. Well, it means the cancelled / not started titles won't be around then, for sure.
Also people just won't get trained, and engineers won't be learning how to exploit the power of the console.

The good news for the publishers on the Wii is that the average cycles are shorter, so they were able to respond to platform's success in time for titles to show up by the end of the year.

The presence and success of the Wii -- and the PS2 -- make it less of an issue that Sony is screwing things up at the moment with the PS3. Sony couldn't easily price the PS3 where it needs to be to be a mainstream success at this point anyway.

Does that make it a good thing that they're screwing it up? Of course not. Things just aren't as simple as they have been in the past, and there are some benefits that moderate some of the setbacks.

[rjcc]

Well let's look at the facts: you're the one who replied to me while arguing against positions I didn't take. Clearly the line of discussion wasn't something you expected; no argument there. That didn't stop you from attempting to participate anyway.

The position you took then and the position you maintain now is the same: that the PS3s easy availability so soon after launch wasn't a bad sign. it was.

Yes, we get it, there are other factors at play like restocking rate, but when nintendo is shipping more consoles and still selling out, there seems to be some minor indication that there's sales opportunities being missed, and it was evident back then.

but no, I'm not expecting the line of discussion, that's the problem.

[Michael Fortson]

The position you took then and the position you maintain now is the same: that the PS3s easy availability so soon after launch wasn't a bad sign. it was.


The argument is actually: Retail sightings of PS3s during the first two months post-launch wasn't simply attributable to demand in comparison with other console launches.

I don't really expect you to see the difference in those statements given the effort you've demonstrated so far. That's the whole good/bad thing I've been talking about (and you hilariously reinforced in your quoted statement above).

[fuzzyslug]

To expand a bit on that, I think there is eventually going to be a very clear and very strong high-definition gaming generation, and I think that the longer the Wii and PS2 continue to outsell everything else, the longer that generation is going to take to really get going, and the longer Sony has to get their system in order.

The trajectory problem in comparison to the 360, though, I think they will move to fix -- and fix quickly. We'll see whether or not they're successful in that.

This is how I feel as well. Sony might have a chance at that 10 year target. It might be year 3 or 4 before the price is mainstream and enough people have an HDTV to make the purchase of either the 360 or PS3 worth it. From a sales point of view, we are very much still in the last generation.

[Moggraider]

Yeah, look at the site with numbers so fictitious that it's an instant and permanent banning offense to link to them on the GAF. Hint: their numbers on the PS2 launch are way off. We covered this in our last "is the PS3 DOMED?" thread back in December, but I'm not surprised that we're rehashing the same arguments again.


I know the site has problems, but I don't have other numbers. Do you? The fact remains that the well-executed global launch did give Sony decent launch sales for a console of this gen; they just need to keep it up with software.

[Ben Sones]

I know the site has problems, but I don't have other numbers. Do you? The fact remains that the well-executed global launch did give Sony decent launch sales for a console of this gen; they just need to keep it up with software.

I did (a CNN story, and also something from Fortune, I believe) in the thread (http://www.quartertothree.com/game-talk/showthread.php?t=31934&page=20&highlight=Sony)back in December, but honestly, I get tired of tracking down the links every time we have one of these threads. I should bookmark them or something. The PS2 sold a half a million units in its first weekend in North America. That's more than the PS3 sold in its entire first month, and not that far off what it sold all the way through Christmas. PS2 sold almost a million in its first two days in Japan. That's more than the PS3 has sold to date there--six months worth of sales. To say that the PS3's launch was as successful as the PS2's is utter craziness.

[Moggraider]

Maybe you didn't hear what I said. It reaches similar amounts when you look at sales on a global level. I'm not saying the PS3 is selling like hotcakes or going to overtake the 360, but it's not all bad.

[Rimbo]

Just cite something definitive. Like that trajectory :)

Actually, though, it's still a complicated thing. The market, that is. Who can say how long this "generation" will last, and whether or not publishers will give up on any of the platforms in a long-term meaningful way? Why are PS2 sales still so strong? Who's buying those? What's up with the Wii, and what does that say about this generation in general? It's just weird.

What it says is that the market is driven by novelty, and that we're beyond the point where better graphics provide any.

It's what Nintendo has been saying for three or four years now, and following that story is why they are dominating the sales charts and making enough money to buy a small African country.

The only thing complicated about markets is that almost all of the indicators and trends are red herrings.

[Rimbo]

This is how I feel as well. Sony might have a chance at that 10 year target. It might be year 3 or 4 before the price is mainstream and enough people have an HDTV to make the purchase of either the 360 or PS3 worth it. From a sales point of view, we are very much still in the last generation.

There is one slight problem with this theory.

The problem is money.


If people don't buy the PS3 now, then the economies of scale that help to drive their costs take longer to come into play.* If the economies of scale don't come into play, then the PS3 remains expensive to produce for longer. If it remains expensive to produce longer, then it will take longer for it to be profitable.
If people don't buy the PS3 now, then developers will cease developing for it. If developers cease developing for it, then people have less reason to buy the PS3 now.
So when next year comes around, the PS3 is still expensive to produce and still has no games, while the 360 and Wii are continuing to increase their lead over the PS3 and reasons for people to buy them.


You're talking about a ten year mark up ahead. Ten years! You could take the money you'd be sloughing off for the next three and instead of trying to teach this pig to sing be building a PS4 with the hopes that in the PS4's fourth year it's dominating, and you'd have a better shot of actually succeeding, wouldn't you? And that's only seven years away.

Sony cannot just sit here for God knows how long while the PS3 swallows up the profits of every other division in the company and wait for it to maybe possibly be making tons of money in a Hail Mary chance ten years from now.

The only argument remaining against the PS3 being a failure is to look at all of the evidence, all of the news articles about the PS3 losing exclusives and the 360 gaining exclusives and the PS3 failing to sell and costing so much and all of the history of consoles like Sega Saturn, Atari 5200 and 3DO and somehow say, "Oh yeah? Well, ... what if it didn't?"

All you're saying is that there's a chance the PS3 can still succeed. Well, yes, there's always a chance.


The UN could declare Wiis and Xbox 360s illegal, and send in troops to halt all production of Microsoft and Nintendo consoles.
Meteorite swarms could simultaneously take out Nintendo and Microsoft WHQ, sending the organizations into chaos from which they'll never recover.
Sony could buy out EA, and from then on make sure Madden is PS3-only.


I could go on listing ways, but you get the idea: We're talking about a collection of events of either suspicious specificity or extreme improbability -- and in most cases, both.

The PS3 is too expensive; as a result, people are not buying the PS3; as a result, developers are not developing for it and it's not gaining many economies of scale; as a result, it continues to have little to offer for too high of a cost vs. Microsoft and Nintendo; as a result, people are still not buying the PS3; as a result, even fewer developers are developing for it and it's continuing not to gain economies of scale...

If I were on Sony's BOD, I would be working to see to it that the PS3 is cancelled, starting last month, so that no more money was put into it. Maybe start the PS4 now. But the sooner one admits a mistake and cuts one's losses, the better.


*Already, IBM is starting to market the Cell processor to supercomputing and similar markets, to try and help cover their own costs in designing it.

[Ben Sones]

Maybe you didn't hear what I said. It reaches similar amounts when you look at sales on a global level. I'm not saying the PS3 is selling like hotcakes or going to overtake the 360, but it's not all bad.

Uhm... how does that math work out, exactly? It sold vastly less than the PS2 in both of the regions in which it launched. Even comparing glabal PS3 numbers to the PS2's initial launch in Japan, it fell short (and that comparison gives the PS3 an enormous handicap). So yes--it is all bad.

[Karen]

It's an overclocked GameCube and a decent amount Ram and I think that a new Microwave has built in WiFi these days.

Your microwave has always had built in wifi (or at least a wifi jammer)...
They operate in the same frequency band.

Still not sure what this has to do with the cost of the Wii

[runesword forger]

If I were on Sony's BOD, I would be working to see to it that the PS3 is cancelled, starting last month, so that no more money was put into it. Maybe start the PS4 now. But the sooner one admits a mistake and cuts one's losses, the better.


Dude. It's down but it ain't out. The console wars aren't predictable enough to flush the PS3. Besides, you can't just burn your customers on such an expensive, high profile product. I'd hate to guess the future cost to Sony on the word of mouth from tech-savvy 15-30 year old males. C'mon.

Hell, it wasn't that long ago that Sony announced the PSP, sending Nintendo's stock sharply down. The DS was a stupid gimmick and couldn't compete. Nintendo's successor to the Cube was doomed because no console maker ever got off the floor from 3rd place. Besides, MS and Sony had the deep pockets to play a game that Nintendo couldn't anymore.

If hi-def takes off, they get a couple killer games out, and they suck up the losses from a big price drop, maybe Sony can stabilize this thing for an eventual comeback.

[Moggraider]

Uhm... how does that math work out, exactly?


The PS3 was much faster to launch in Europe and the rest of Asia, which is what pulled it up.

[Andrew Mayer]

At this point the PS3 is the GameCube of this generation. Consequently they should be following Nintendo's Gamecube strategy.

1) Get the price point down to a place where they can convince people to buy the platform for any top tier exclusive titles that are coming out.
I just don't see how anything good happens to them until the machine costs less than $300.

2) Develop any and all Sony owned licenses so that they can keep putting out AAA exclusive titles on a regular basis, and make sure that they don't drop out of the public perception.

3) Try to get as many third party exclusives as they can. Capcom did Nintendo a huge favor by launching exclusives on the Cube. Res Evil 4 kept things bobbing along.

The Cube wasn't a failure. Nintendo managed to make it profitable, keep their licenses afloat, and prepare for the next generation. Even more stunning, they managed to repurpose the technology and create a smash hit.
Sony could do the same...

[Ben Sones]

The PS3 was much faster to launch in Europe and the rest of Asia, which is what pulled it up.

So the PS3 launch was okay compared to the PS2 if we extend our definition of "launch" to include the PS3's European launch, months later, but restrict the PS2 launch to just the initial launch in Japan, and then compare the PS3's sales from all territories to the PS2's sales in just one. OKAY!

The funny thing is, even if we were to accept that such an absurdly stacked comparison is meaningful in any way (and it isn't!), the PS3 still doesn't come out looking that good.

[Moggraider]

It's not that we're restricting anything. The PS2 was slower to launch in the other territories, so there's just no comparison there. So you just weren't listening to what I said. Anyway, what I said from the beginning was that this was Sony's phrasing, that the PS3 made it to 3 or 4 million or whatever it was faster than the PS2 did. I'm not part of the Sony Defense Force. And that's a comparable global install base to the 360 at this time last year.

[DaveC]

I hate to bring up the "Dreamcast" word and it's not analogous on many levels, but I do find it interesting that many of the same arguments like "wait and see" and "the DC will eventually have killer games" are being rehashed for the PS3. It's ironic how so many people predicted the 360 would be this generations DC.

[Moggraider]

Those predictions were reasonable. The 360's adoption rate was and is still pretty slow. It was for a while, if it still isn't, slower than the original XBOX's. Devs bought into cutting the last gen short a year and switched over to the 360 and that's why it's going to beat the PS3. Which now to me seems foolish, because the PS2 is still selling great.

And the DC did have some killer games.

[DaveC]

How bad is the 360 adoption rate? Is it totally out of whack with what Microsoft wanted? From what I've read they aren't far off from where they wanted to be right now. As for killer games, that didn't do much to help the DC was my point. In fact my DC is still hooked up to my TV, but it doesn't get played much.

[Gaming-Module]

What will be really bad for MS is if they wait to drop the price between Christmas and this deluge of Summer/Fall games that seem to have no end and the sales numbers don't spike at all. To me that would say that they missed the boat on the real benefit of a price drop.

[DaveC]

What will be really bad for MS is if they wait to drop the price between Christmas and this deluge of Summer/Fall games that seem to have no end and the sales numbers don't spike at all. To me that would say that they missed the boat on the real benefit of a price drop.

And if a meteor falls on Redmond it would be bad. What are the chances that there won't be a Christmas spike for all consoles? I'd say slim to none and slim has left town.

[Andrew Mayer]

It's not that we're restricting anything. The PS2 was slower to launch in the other territories, so there's just no comparison there. So you just weren't listening to what I said. Anyway, what I said from the beginning was that this was Sony's phrasing, that the PS3 made it to 3 or 4 million or whatever it was faster than the PS2 did. I'm not part of the Sony Defense Force. And that's a comparable global install base to the 360 at this time last year.

You know, this just reminds me of what I think was the biggest mistake of all, and that was the simultaneous release.

If they had gone the usual route and put it out in Japan, with the US release 6-12 months later, they could have put together a good list of launch titles, gotten production costs under control and lowered the price, generated anticipation, and had a dry run for all the pricing and sales issues that are now killing them worldwide.

I think I understand why they didn't do it. But it was the one thing that really differentiates this generation from previous ones, and it's biting them in the ass. And if you think that your "HD Generation" is going to show up later, doesn't it make sense to release the box farther into that cycle.

Yes, Nintendo did it also, but the dev cycles are so much smaller for the Wii. They also had Zelda (and other "upgraded" GC titles) and the costs were lower to begin with.

[Charles]

Those predictions were reasonable. The 360's adoption rate was and is still pretty slow. It was for a while, if it still isn't, slower than the original XBOX's. Devs bought into cutting the last gen short a year and switched over to the 360 and that's why it's going to beat the PS3. Which now to me seems foolish, because the PS2 is still selling great.

And the DC did have some killer games.

I don't think anyone really cut the last gen short. The Xbox a little, sure, but that's not so surprising seeing as how the xbox wasn't exactly a huge userbase. But they still gave it well over a year of solid support.

You'll see the old systems getting dropped soon enough, as it's not cost effective for game companies to have to maintain two different code bases, and port games between two generations. Big names are already starting to quit developing for last gen systems. Even the PS2's days are numbered (though I'm sure the japanese market will hang on a while longer).

[Kevin Grey]

How bad is the 360 adoption rate? Is it totally out of whack with what Microsoft wanted? From what I've read they aren't far off from where they wanted to be right now.

Peter Moore recently stated they wanted to be at 90 million. Those are PS2 numbers and the 360's adoption rate is considerably slower than the PS2 had it's first 18 months. Right now it's tracking about 30-40% ahead of the original Xbox but that would only get them to about 35-40 million userbase.

[Charles]

I think that's still a fair bit better than people would've guessed before launch. Although MS has had a fair share of help from Sony.

[MyNameIsWill]

All of these comparisons that center on "____ sold ___ units during its first ____ months" are only valid if we're looking at another 4-6 year lifespan for these consoles. I would be extremely surprised if we see new consoles from Sony or Microsoft in the next 3-4 years.

Maybe Nintendo though. I wouldn't be surprised if they release an HD Wii in the next 3-4 years.

[DaveC]

Maybe Nintendo though. I wouldn't be surprised if they release an HD Wii in the next 3-4 years.

Why would they do that? Id they make games that require HD then that would isolate all the exisiting install base.

[MyNameIsWill]

Two reasons:
- HD penetration willl likely be much higher and fans are going to want it, eventually ("I already have this TV, why isn't the Wii taking advantage of it?")
- The cost hardware equivalent to the Xbox 360 or PS3 will be much lower then, so Nintendo can pitch it as "Hey, we're giving you what the other guys are, plus waggle, plus all of these backwards compatible casual games, at a great price"

[DaveC]

Two reasons:
- HD penetration willl likely be much higher and fans are going to want it, eventually ("I already have this TV, why isn't the Wii taking advantage of it?")
- The cost hardware equivalent to the Xbox 360 or PS3 will be much lower then, so Nintendo can pitch it as "Hey, we're giving you what the other guys are, plus waggle, plus all of these backwards compatible casual games, at a great price"

Yeah, that's not going to happen. I don't think Nintendo works that way. One reason I believe that is they never introduced a DVD player version of the GC in North America.

[Moggraider]

Well, the GC with DVD playback tanked in Japan, so maybe they just saw no reason.

[shang]

- HD penetration willl likely be much higher and fans are going to want it, eventually ("I already have this TV, why isn't the Wii taking advantage of it?")

Only the hardcore players and videophiles will think like this. At least 90% of the population will not even know if their Wii produces HD image or not (i.e. they will just automatically assume it does after they buy a HDTV).

[theblackw0lf]

This is probably a very naive question, but why can't Sony just come out with a PS3 version that doesn't have BlueRay, and sell it for cheaper?

[Andrew Mayer]

This is probably a very naive question, but why can't Sony just come out with a PS3 version that doesn't have BlueRay, and sell it for cheaper?

They're claiming that there's more content on the disks than a DVD can hold.

[Moggraider]

Is there a game out already on the PS3 that fills up more than a DVD? Games made for the PS3 can in the future go over the limit with useful content. A big advantage could be uncompressed textures and cinematics, no? With the 360 as the lead SKU, many will not take advantage of Blu-Ray and people will say "Aha! Sony was wrong!" but that is not good reasoning.

[shang]

Is there a game out already on the PS3 that fills up more than a DVD? Games made for the PS3 can in the future go over the limit with useful content. A big advantage could be uncompressed textures and cinematics, no? With the 360 as the lead SKU, many will not take advantage of Blu-Ray and people will say "Aha! Sony was wrong!" but that is not good reasoning.

I think there are several games that go over the DVD limit (maybe most of them even?), but it's hard to guess how easy it would've been to fit them on a DVD9 if they had to. Uncompressed textures and cinematics wouldn't be a good use for the space, though. Uncompressing them with modern CPUs is much faster than reading the larger data out of a DVD/BluRay.

As for releasing a cheaper PS3 without a BluRay drive, not going to happen. It would make no sense for Sony and would be hugely impractical as all PS3 games released so far are on BR-disks.

[Brad Grenz]

This is probably a very naive question, but why can't Sony just come out with a PS3 version that doesn't have BlueRay, and sell it for cheaper?

Because none of the current games would work on it? Because all the games being developed are targeting Blu-ray capacity? Because no matter how many people pretend like it's not, 50GB discs are a significant advantage that will be exploited very quickly? Because higher compression isn't magic, and isn't always a good thing?

[Matthew Gallant]

Because no matter how many people pretend like it's not, 50GB discs are a significant advantage that will be exploited very quickly?
By who? The magical developers who work for free? Gears of War takes up 6.43 GB; who is going to make the extra 32.3% worth of bald angry men that will push the game over 1 disc?

Here's a sample conversation at a publisher:

Grenzian Systems Project Lead: "We want to make a game for the Blu-Ray, with lots of gigabytes, and need double the budget."

Man In Suit: "Will it look better than Gears of War?"

GSPL: "Yes, for certain definitions of 'better'. For instance, we could make the game longer. We just need more money and more time to make a longer game that looks about as good as Gears of War."

MIS: "This is my purse string. I am tightening it. This is my other purse string. I think I will also tighten this one."

GSPL: "Dude, a purse."

MIS: "I think it looks handsome."

[intruder]

I recently bought a PS2 (February). This is my first console ever. Let me point out some things:

1. I waited years until the PS2 was in a price range that I deemed "ok" for consoles (as I still see them as "PCs little brothers"). I planned long to get it because of exclusives that I couldn't get on the PC.

2. I spent around $200 US for bundle of a sliver Slim PS2 with a EyeToy camera and "EyeToy Kinectic". I saw that prices would stay after the lackluster lunch of the PS3 in the US (I had calculated that the price might drop even more if the PS3 would have sold like hotcakes).
To this date I spent around $900 US on 45+ games. Most used, some new (Guitar Hero + 2nd guitar and a few games). I intend to buy another 5 or so games and then stop for good trying to sell games I will not want to keep later.

3. I also bought a used Gamecube and the 10+ games that I consider "must have" (Metroid Prime, Zelda, Res4 etc.). Also my buying on it has permanently stopped. Add another $250 for that package.

4. I picked up exactly ONE Xbox game (Ninja Gaiden Black) mostly because only one seller on Ebay.co.uk sold it for weeks so I feared it might be gone soon and prices would go up. The rest of the line-up is either on the PC or nothing I want. I have 3-4 XBox 360 games so far identified as "nice to have" that I intend to try buying in the coming years.

5. I play mainly on the PC and if there is a version for it I will buy that version and not a console version unless it's a AAA title that blows as port. Then it would go on my "to buy once cheap console list".

Neither Sony nor MS or Nintendo will see a sale to me for the next years. I don't own a HDTV nor do I plan to get one unless my current tv has died.
I'm very happy to stay "current gen". I might buy a new computer begin of next year or so. I have the money to blow but I don't see any reason to spend it on a "next-gen" console right now.

I'm not in the position to judge the "next gen" consoles since I don't have experiences with any of them besides seeing "Motostorm" once in a mall and being left unimpressed. All I want is to point out who are those people that are buying PS2s now. I'm one of them.

I also want to say that I have the feeling that HDTV, Blue Ray / HD-DVD and next-gen consoles came too early. HDTV is fighting a hard fight in Germany and sales have declined after some spikes before the Soccer World Cup last year. Also the fact that we have this shitty "format war" again after it has been done with DVDs (+ / - anyone) doesn't help because people don't want to buy a possible "loser" (BETA anyone?).

Non-gamers are hooked by Guitar Hero or Wii Play because of the gameplay and the unique interaction with the console and NOT with the kickass or lame graphics. I bet they wouldn't care if they'd play Guitar Hero on the PS2 or the XBox 360 so long as both would have the guitar shaped controller. Most wouldn't even notice the difference in graphics as an advantage for the Xbox 360.

These are my thoughts. Make out of them whatever you want.

[Ben Sones]

I also want to say that I have the feeling that HDTV, Blue Ray / HD-DVD and next-gen consoles came too early. HDTV is fighting a hard fight in Germany and sales have declined after some spikes before the Soccer World Cup last year. Also the fact that we have this shitty "format war" again after it has been done with DVDs (+ / - anyone) doesn't help because people don't want to buy a possible "loser" (BETA anyone?).

I'd agree that HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray is not only too early, but also not even the right battle. By the time people are ready to adopt a new media format, digital distribution will crush both.

HDTV is going strong in the US, though. About a third of US households have at least one HDTV, now. If sales don't slow (and they've been increasing, not slowing--HDTV sales beat forecasts for last year by nearly double), they'll be in more than half the homes in the US by the end of this year.

[Hans Lauring]

I'd agree that HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray is not only too early, but also not even the right battle. By the time people are ready to adopt a new media format, digital distribution will crush both.


I agree that the battle is started too early to surpass dvd, but boggle at this often used argument.
65% of the US population uses the internet. The number is higher in only a few countries. Bandwidth around the world is a growing issue (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/click_online/6756899.stm) and you envision a majority of consumers to download HD-content?

Physical media is far from dead, and I think we'll have years of physical HD-media before digital distribution will crush anything.
The fact that the corporations who owns the media don't trust dd and is really slow on the uptake adds to this as well.

[RickH]

I'd agree that HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray is not only too early, but also not even the right battle. By the time people are ready to adopt a new media format, digital distribution will crush both.

HD-DVD & Blu-Ray are "too early" but everyone downloading HD movies is right around the corner? Can't agree with you there. Disc distribution is the most efficient way of moving those gigabytes around.

And even then, DRM will kill the deal. People can download 720p movies from XBLM, but they have to be watched within a certain period of time or they expire, BUT AT THE SAME TIME can't be watched until they are downloaded (at least in part, I know that's been updated, but it's still not d/l at streaming speeds). So, there's no immediate gratification, and if you delay it too long, you're screwed, too.

[runesword forger]

HDTV is going strong in the US, though. About a third of US households have at least one HDTV, now. If sales don't slow (and they've been increasing, not slowing--HDTV sales beat forecasts for last year by nearly double), they'll be in more than half the homes in the US by the end of this year.

33 percent now and 50 percent by the end of this year don't sound right to me. They sound like x3 or so....

Of course, they might be right for the videogame subset in the US

Is HDTV really that big?

[Ben Sones]

Yes (http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117956845.html?categoryid=2438&cs=1). Given the rate of sales, and the fact that there will likely be even better bargains this coming Christmas, I don't think 50% is an outrageous projection. As I've said many times in the past, when HDTV's finally go mainstream, it will happen very quickly. That's how it was with DVDs.

[Charles]

By who? The magical developers who work for free? Gears of War takes up 6.43 GB; who is going to make the extra 32.3% worth of bald angry men that will push the game over 1 disc?

Exactly. Unless you are doing frivolous space wasting like storing the complete video from old tv shows (http://videogames.yahoo.com/gamepreview?cid=1951039627&tab=previews&page=0&eid=502642) on the disc, the only way to reach the point of needing > 8gb of storage is by directly increasing your development costs to support the added development required. Content development is the most expensive part of games, and it directly contributes to filling up the disc.

[TheTrunkDr]

Yes (http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117956845.html?categoryid=2438&cs=1). Given the rate of sales, and the fact that there will likely be even better bargains this coming Christmas, I don't think 50% is an outrageous projection. As I've said many times in the past, when HDTV's finally go mainstream, it will happen very quickly. That's how it was with DVDs.
I'm curious how many people are actually seeing HD content on their HDTVs. With all the required hardware and services I'm willing to be a staggering number of consumers aren't getting what they've paid for and will probably have to invest hundreds more in order to make use of their technology.

[Ben Sones]

I dunno... it doesn't really require much in the way of hardware or added services. Anyone with cable can just call their cable company and say "Hey, I'd like to get high-def channels." They'll give you a new box and add a high-def tier to your service. It's not exactly rocket science.

[Michael Fortson]

The high def offerings are still pretty lean. That's been my biggest frustration with having the set and the service. That, and the outrageous compression the fuckers at the cable company love to impose, ruining the presentation of challenging (read: detailed and moving) content.

[Ben Sones]

Time Warner's offerings are pretty good now. We get all the networks (although the only network show that I watch these days is Heroes), plus the cable almost-networks like the WB and TNT, plus some good general-purpose channels like Discovery HD, A&E, and iNHD. We also get HD Movies and HD Net, plus the Universal HD channel (which shows all of the shows from Sci-Fi that we watch--Battlestar Galactica and Stargate). I think we have about eighteen or nineteen channels in HD right now--that's just Time Warner's basic tier; no pay channels like HBO.

[Michael Fortson]

OOh, I always forget about Universal HD. Probably since the episodes showing when I would watch it were so old that I had already seen them by then -- are they still like that?

Despite my availability complaints, I only watch a few shows, and they're almost all in HD (and I always just DVR them). Heck I could probably get most of my TV watching done with an OTA antenna (and get much better quality out of the deal).

[Ben Sones]

They are still like that, but we just decided to bite the bullet and live with being behind the curve in watching episodes. BSG in HD is way, way cooler than BSG in SD.

[Rimbo]

Dude. It's down but it ain't out. The console wars aren't predictable enough to flush the PS3. Besides, you can't just burn your customers on such an expensive, high profile product. I'd hate to guess the future cost to Sony on the word of mouth from tech-savvy 15-30 year old males. C'mon.

Hell, it wasn't that long ago that Sony announced the PSP, sending Nintendo's stock sharply down. The DS was a stupid gimmick and couldn't compete. Nintendo's successor to the Cube was doomed because no console maker ever got off the floor from 3rd place. Besides, MS and Sony had the deep pockets to play a game that Nintendo couldn't anymore.

If hi-def takes off, they get a couple killer games out, and they suck up the losses from a big price drop, maybe Sony can stabilize this thing for an eventual comeback.

Yes, there'd be a backlash against Sony if they yanked it now. I'm sure it would be just as effective as "bike to work day" and every other consumer boycott in existence. Even if this wasn't one of the most fickle industries in the known universe, that kind of backlash usually doesn't amount to much.

Again, all you're doing is saying "Yeah, but what if it didn't repeat the well-established pattern that's existed since the first consoles came out in the 1970s?" The only thing you're making a positive argument on are remote possibilities.


At this point the PS3 is the GameCube of this generation. Consequently they should be following Nintendo's Gamecube strategy.

That strategy worked for the GC because the GC's cost was in line with that generation's hardware, and probably even cheaper. Sony has a long way to go before a PS3 can make money at $300, and by that time the 360 and Wii will be even cheaper than that. Again, the low volumes they're producing are going to make this take longer just as well as the other.


I don't think anyone really cut the last gen short. The Xbox a little, sure, but that's not so surprising seeing as how the xbox wasn't exactly a huge userbase. But they still gave it well over a year of solid support.


All of these comparisons that center on "____ sold ___ units during its first ____ months" are only valid if we're looking at another 4-6 year lifespan for these consoles. I would be extremely surprised if we see new consoles from Sony or Microsoft in the next 3-4 years.

Sony has every reason for this generation to be as short as possible. That's what Sony needs to do -- start on the PS4 right now and end the PS3 disaster as soon as possible.

Sony will drop Blu-Ray under pain of death only. Blu-Ray is, to them, the whole point. They'll drop the PS3 before they'll drop Blu-Ray.

[MyNameIsWill]

I don't follow your logic. Why do you think they can make a new, better console cheaper than the PS3?

[Andrew Mayer]

I don't follow your logic. Why do you think they can make a new, better console cheaper than the PS3?

If they're smart they'll wait three years and re-release the same console with a few new features and a much lower price.

[Charles]

If they're smart they'll wait three years and re-release the same console with a few new features and a much lower price.

Why on earth would they do that, when they can add the features in firmware and just drop the price in 3 years? Making hardware changes will cost them in more than just cash.

[MyNameIsWill]

If they're smart they'll wait three years and re-release the same console with a few new features and a much lower price.
I'm pretty sure Sony will be releasing a PS3 Slim as soon as they can. It's worked wonders for the PS One and PS2.

[Shadari]

I'm pretty sure Sony will be releasing a PS3 Slim as soon as they can.
That's gonna piss off George Foreman.

[Ben]

Even if this wasn't one of the most fickle industries in the known universe, that kind of backlash usually doesn't amount to much.

Ask Sega about that.

Sony has to play out the string, dropping the PS3 this quickly is ridiculous. If they can play the Xbox/N64 role that's a setback, not a defeat.

[Andrew Mayer]

Why on earth would they do that, when they can add the features in firmware and just drop the price in 3 years? Making hardware changes will cost them in more than just cash.

Because that's what Nintendo did.

[Rimbo]

Bingo. They could also chop off features that add lots of cost but don't add much appeal for people. (Won't need to push Blu-Ray so hard three years from now, one hopes.) And then go for some novelty that appeals to ...

Oh, who are we kidding. Sony doesn't give a flying fuck about gamers or game developers, why would they do anything different, even if their business depended on it?

[Charles]

Because that's what Nintendo did.

Um, no? Last I checked, the Wii wasn't released in November 04.

[Andrew Mayer]

Um, no? Last I checked, the Wii wasn't released in November 04.

I didn't say *exactly*.

[Jazar]

Bingo. They could also chop off features that add lots of cost but don't add much appeal for people. (Won't need to push Blu-Ray so hard three years from now, one hopes.)

In three years Blu-ray will cost them nothing.

[Kool Moe Dee]

People can download 720p movies from XBLM, but they have to be watched within a certain period of time or they expire, BUT AT THE SAME TIME can't be watched until they are downloaded (at least in part, I know that's been updated, but it's still not d/l at streaming speeds).

Actually, in my experience, you spend up to a minute or so buffering, and then playback begins. It's comparable to getting up off the couch, finding a disc, and putting it in...much better than I thought it would be.

Of course, this will probably vary somewhat depending on your net connection, so YMMV.

[Charles]

I didn't say *exactly*.

Well, the Wii came out after the well accepted 5 year period, is more powerful (though it's not drastically new hardware), and had a hell of a lot of research placed in to something that wasn't just window dressing.

I fail to see how thinking Sony should "wait three years and re-release the same console with a few new features" is the same as what Nintendo did. It's not. Nintendo researched and created a new console. Their technology focus just wasn't on the graphics-whore side of things. That doesn't make it any less of an undertaking.

[Fugitive]

I think people are getting too hung up on the "same backwards-compatible architecture" thing, which isn't a fault any more than it is in the PC world.

[Andrew Mayer]

Well, the Wii came out after the well accepted 5 year period, is more powerful (though it's not drastically new hardware), and had a hell of a lot of research placed in to something that wasn't just window dressing.

Which I'd argue is still well cheaper than actually pulling together a new piece of hardware. I'm not saying the new controller was free, but we're talking at least an order of magnitude fewer engineers to pull it together in comparison to what Sony pulled off.


I fail to see how thinking Sony should "wait three years and re-release the same console with a few new features" is the same as what Nintendo did. It's not. Nintendo researched and created a new console.

Sorta created a new console, and really mostly didn't. Don't get me wrong, I love the Wii on many levels. But one of the things I love about it is how little work they actually did on the hardware side.


Their technology focus just wasn't on the graphics-whore side of things. That doesn't make it any less of an undertaking.

Having developed for the platform for the last eight months, I think it does.

[Charles]

Which I'd argue is still well cheaper than actually pulling together a new piece of hardware. I'm not saying the new controller was free, but we're talking at least an order of magnitude fewer engineers to pull it together in comparison to what Sony pulled off.


Well, yes, but Sony was retarded enough to want to make their own CPU. But they can make a new hardware platform, more powerful and with new features, with someone else's CPU. MS did.



Having developed for the platform for the last eight months, I think it does.

Were you involved in R&D on the Wii Controller? Considering how late in the game developers started getting final controllers, I'd hazard a guess that it wasn't just a simple tossed together undertaking.

[Ryan Markel]

I dunno... it doesn't really require much in the way of hardware or added services. Anyone with cable can just call their cable company and say "Hey, I'd like to get high-def channels." They'll give you a new box and add a high-def tier to your service. It's not exactly rocket science.

I seem to remember a study done not long ago that showed that 50% (54?) of people with HDTVs were not watching any kind of HD programming on it, and a third of people thought that their TV signal *was* HD because they had bought an HDTV.

[Chris Nahr]

Gamasutra (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14384) reposts a report by British analyst group Screen Digest about the outlook for the three consoles, mostly from a European perspective.


For Xbox 360, European hardware sales seem to have hit a wall. The target market is still too focused on adult males and the brand does not enjoy the same cachet in non-Anglo Saxon markets as it does in the US and, to a lesser extent, the UK. The FPS / shooter genre is well served on the Xbox 360 with numerous high quality titles, so satisfying the adult male demographic is not a concern, but failing to break out of a small number of genres and thereby appealing to groups outside of hardcore gamers is. [...]

While some commentators have bet their farms on the outright winner of the next gen war being Nintendo's Wii, others are more cautious, with some suggesting the current market of casual gamers could dry up. Hence the Wii's target market could be saturated more quickly than its competitors as the technology looks increasingly tired by comparison. [...]

The PS3 has reached 1 million sales in PAL territories according to SCEE. A price drop before year end is becoming inevitable and would be in line with previous PlayStation first time price reduction timings. This is certainly what is needed to boost sales however the education of consumers as to what is in the box and what its benefits are has not been forthcoming from Sony. Marketing material has tended towards the esoteric and abstract and has seemingly failed to resonate with the consumer. Senior marketing execs at SCEE have said that it was decided to build a brand rather than inform consumers as to the technical benefits and value of the PS3 platform.

Most publishers European management teams feel that the PS3 will win out, especially in Europe where the brand still appears to be impregnable. Brand PlayStation has always commanded respect from a broad parish to come up with what is required to prevail in the marketplace. Some commentators point out that it took Gran Turismo 3 to drive a slow launch of the PS2 after 7 to 8 months on the market.

[Mark Asher]

That's interesting. It does seem like the 360 is really aimed at males, and male hardcore gamers at that. I can see that projection that it may have trouble breaking out of that image. Even the name, Xbox, and 360, sounds so technical, like it's aimed at the hardcore.

[DaveC]

Gamasutra (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14384) reposts a report by British analyst group Screen Digest about the outlook for the three consoles, mostly from a European perspective.

So, do these people come from the same group of "analysts" that Pachter does? Are they the Euro equivalent? Brand name is important, but it can be overcome as evidenced in the past by Sega, Nintendo and Sony.

[Qenan]

Sure, but right now, they are right about the 360's limited appeal to those of us who don't love shooters. I have one and have barely played it.

The PS3 is a total dud so far, but if they got a few key RPGs I'd consider it.

[rjcc]

Sure, but right now, they are right about the 360's limited appeal to those of us who don't love shooters. I have one and have barely played it.

The PS3 is a total dud so far, but if they got a few key RPGs I'd consider it.

Have you tried the rpg's on the 360?

[Qenan]

What RPGs? Oblivion, check. Phantasy Star, pass. Nothing else has come out that I'm aware of.

[Moggraider]

Enchanted Arms is good. The other faux RPGs like Ultimate Alliance, meh. But that's it. However, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, and Lost Odyssey should all rock.

[Ben Sones]

And Trusty Bell/Eternal Sonata!

[JD]

So, do these people come from the same group of "analysts" that Pachter does? Are they the Euro equivalent? Brand name is important, but it can be overcome as evidenced in the past by Sega, Nintendo and Sony.
Which still doesn't change the point (http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2007/05/from-europe.html) that the 360 isn't exactly selling like hotcakes at this point.

[Chris Nahr]

The 360's poor performance in Germany is not too surprising. There are still lots of PC gamers here who would have played cross-platform titles like Oblivion on the PC, and two of the most notable exclusives (Dead Rising and Gears of War) were never released in Germany because the USK refused to give them an age rating.

Why the 360 doesn't sell in France is anyone's guess, though. Revenge for Freedom Fries?

[bago]

So my worst issue is not being able to play all of thr tracks from crackdown in one session.

I have to select a new track every fucking goddamned time.

Serious negative points against a production that has nailed the best of the last 10 years of music.

[DaveC]

Which still doesn't change the point (http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2007/05/from-europe.html) that the 360 isn't exactly selling like hotcakes at this point.

So I guess the experts are right and the 360 is domed then. Better sell mine before the rats start jumping ship.

[MyNameIsWill]

Well, by its second May, (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5883&Itemid=2) the PS2 was already $200 and by its first May, the Xbox was already $200.

Past its second May, the Xbox 360 still hasn't seen a price drop. This is why I expect this console generation to last quite a bit longer than the usual 4-5 years we're used to.

In other news, Nintendo's market cap (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6070&Itemid=2) is right up there with Sony's.

[Chris Nahr]

That's insane. Nintendo is tiny compared to Sony. But that's what happens when you're making spaceships out of money!

[Mark Asher]

So I guess the experts are right and the 360 is domed then. Better sell mine before the rats start jumping ship.

I think it just means that there may not be a dominant console this generation. It also may mean that Sony still has a fighting chance to turn things around. If the 360 doesn't take off in Europe, and we know it won't do well in Japan, then Sony has an opportunity still.

[Charles]

I think it just means that there may not be a dominant console this generation. It also may mean that Sony still has a fighting chance to turn things around. If the 360 doesn't take off in Europe, and we know it won't do well in Japan, then Sony has an opportunity still.

Honestly I think MS and Sony are fighting for second place. At least, once it's shown that the Wii has an attach rate higher than 1.

Developers are already realizing that you can't just do a port and a controls pass for the Wii -- they are going to start doing full design passes in order to make a Wii version Wii specific, so you are going to see a lot more movement on the Wii software side.

But if the attach rate starts going up on the Wii, watch out MS/Sony. Which is sad, because I prefer the kind of games that end up on those platforms.

[Andrew Mayer]

But if the attach rate starts going up on the Wii, watch out MS/Sony. Which is sad, because I prefer the kind of games that end up on those platforms.

It'll also end up being the last nail in the coffin of the first gaming generation.

If I'm reading that report mentioned above right, it's basically postulating that core gamers no longer drive the market.

[Charles]

If I'm reading that report mentioned above right, it's basically postulating that core gamers no longer drive the market.

If by "core" you mean "hardcore" then yes, that is entirely correct.

[shang]

I don't think the hardcore gamers have driven the market for a long time now. I think most of the best seller console games in the previous generation were already movie licenses, yearly roster updates for sport games or party games in the vein of Buzz and Guitar Hero.

[DaveC]

It'll also end up being the last nail in the coffin of the first gaming generation.

If I'm reading that report mentioned above right, it's basically postulating that core gamers no longer drive the market.

So what? If anything it will become like film where there is room for mainstream and niche products. You'll have your blockbuster GTA style games and your mom and dad friendly bowling sims on the Wii. The Wii is a monster right now, but I really don't think it's going to have a high attach rate and the games that do sell to a wider audience are probably not the games that people here on Qt3 would play very often. I mean how many variations can you have of sport and puzzle games before the market is saturated?

[Rimbo]

It'll also end up being the last nail in the coffin of the first gaming generation.

If I'm reading that report mentioned above right, it's basically postulating that core gamers no longer drive the market.

"Casual" is where the money is.

[Charles]

I mean how many variations can you have of sport and puzzle games before the market is saturated?

How many nintendo franchises are there?

[DaveC]

How many nintendo franchises are there?

Good point. SUPER MARIO Wii: Puzzle Bowling Racing Topaz Edition.

[Jazar]

If I'm reading that report mentioned above right, it's basically postulating that core gamers no longer drive the market.

Which is how it's been with PC gaming for years. When the top 10 tiles for PC games are all versions of "The Sims" + Wow then you know the market is not for the hardcore PC gamer.

[MyNameIsWill]

"Casual" is where the money is.
Yup. See: EA Casual Entertainment.

[Xemu]

Sure, but the PC market's top end sales being dominated by Sims or Bejeweled has not prevented Age of Empires 3, Civilization 4, STALKER, Dominions 3, Sword of the Stars, Combat Mission, or Gothic 3 from being made. And heck, World of Warcraft is dominating the charts, and it is certainly an experience which appeals quite strongly to hardcore gamers.

Neither will the success of Guitar Hero, Pokemon, and Wii Sports prevent the next generation of games like Gears of War, Halo, Dead Rising, Oblivion, Final Fantasy, and Call of Duty.

The market is so large (and getting larger) that we will naturally see more segmentation. But I don't think that means less hardcore games, I think it means more -- as alternate distribution mechanisms grow and casual gamers seek a wider range of experiences. And heck, if more casual games means more Guitar Hero and more Puzzle Quest I can get behind that. :)

[unbongwah]

The 80-20 rule of thumb basically states that 80% of sales come from 20% of customers. In the videogaming market, it's not hard to see how the hardcore gamers do most of the spending, while the casual gamers make up the rest.* But the big hits - the GTAs and Maddens and Sims of the world - require that the casual gamers buy them en masse: it's the only way to hit that kind of sales volume. In short: the casual gamers decides what ends up on the Top Ten sales lists; but it's the hardcore gamers who keep the rest of the industry afloat.

*For the purposes of this discussion, by "casual" gamers I mean those who only buy a couple of games a year (usually the major hits), while "hardcore" gamers are those who buy several titles a year. Thus, a GTA addict who plays nothing but GTA 20 hours a week is a casual gamer, while someone who only games a few hours a week but buys a new game every month is a hardcore gamer. I.e., I'm discussing consumption and sales volume, not how much they play or how l33t their mad sk1llz are.

MS and Sony both sought to cater to the hardcore gamer; but their flaw was in not making their consoles more attractive to casual gamers (i.e., too expensive, not enough games with mass-market appeal). Nintendo has gone after the mainstream audience and succeeded brilliantly in appealing to them; but they need to sustain that enthusiasm with a steady stream of good games before their audience grows bored and moves onto the Next Big Thing.

[DaveC]

The 80-20 rule of thumb basically states that 80% of sales come from 20% of customers. In the videogaming market, it's not hard to see how the hardcore gamers do most of the spending, while the casual gamers make up the rest.

I have lieterally hundreds of games. There is no way a casual gamer comes close to that. I can't see an casual gamers having more than a handful at the most and I am talking about a total over a long period of time.

[Rimbo]

I mean how many variations can you have of sport and puzzle games before the market is saturated?

Dunno. How many cookie-cutter RTS/FPS/JRPG games can you have?

[Rimbo]

Yup. See: EA Casual Entertainment.

And the EA Sims division, and the EA Sports division.

[MyNameIsWill]

And the EA Sims division, and the EA Sports division.
It isn't EA Sims, it's just The Sims.

[unbongwah]

I have lieterally hundreds of games. There is no way a casual gamer comes close to that. I can't see an casual gamers having more than a handful at the most and I am talking about a total over a long period of time.
Precisely: hardcore gamers inject far more money into the industry per consumer than the casual gamers do; but it's the casual gamers who determine what the biggest hits are. The hardcore gamer pool is narrow but deep (i.e., small percentage of the market, but they spend a lot of money); while the casual gamer pool is broad but shallow (lots of customers, but they don't buy much). Typically you need to attract both types of gamers in order for a console to thrive: you need casual gamers to help expand your install base and fuel your mega-hits; but you need hardcore gamers to keep the second-tier and niche titles afloat.

That's the inherent risk to the Wii's strategy: the casual gamers Nintendo has so successfully courted typically don't buy more than a few games a year. So can Nintendo either (A) convert them into hardcore gamers who buy plenty of games and/or (B) turn a profit off a few big hits every year?

[RickH]

That's the inherent risk to the Wii's strategy: the casual gamers Nintendo has so successfully courted typically don't buy more than a few games a year. So can Nintendo either (A) convert them into hardcore gamers who buy plenty of games and/or (B) turn a profit off a few big hits every year?

There might be a 3rd option: create enough of an installed base that the hardcore gamers will have something to buy because publishers can't ignore the base. I.e., selling to 20% of a base of 20mil is better than 30% of 9mil.

[Rimbo]

There might be a 3rd option: create enough of an installed base that the hardcore gamers will have something to buy because publishers can't ignore the base. I.e., selling to 20% of a base of 20mil is better than 30% of 9mil.

Bingo. The Wii is going to appeal to the niche/hardcore devs simply because there's so many of them out there.


It isn't EA Sims, it's just The Sims.

I stand corrected.

[Shadarr]

There might be a 3rd option: create enough of an installed base that the hardcore gamers will have something to buy because publishers can't ignore the base. I.e., selling to 20% of a base of 20mil is better than 30% of 9mil.
I don't think there's anything about the Wii which precludes hardcore gamers from buying it. The lack of HD might scare off the graphics whores, but that's an even smaller sub-group.

Everyone thought the Gamecube was technologically incapable of doing anything other than bright colors and cell-shaded anime characters until Resident Evil 4 came out. If the Wii is the top console this generation the games will come, and not just casual games like Brain Age and Cooking Mama.

[Qenan]

Enchanted Arms is good. The other faux RPGs like Ultimate Alliance, meh. But that's it. However, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, and Lost Odyssey should all rock.

According to reviews, Enchanted Arms was mediocre, so I passed. ($60 prices have that effect on me.) Ultimate Alliance was fun, but it isn't an RPG. The others aren't out yet.

[Fugitive]

According to reviews, Enchanted Arms was mediocre, so I passed. ($60 prices have that effect on me.)
It should be cheaper now; I've seen it going for around $30-40 CDN, new. It is pretty average, but I'll take what I can get for RPGs right now.

Plus, it has pizza golems.

[Moggraider]

According to reviews, Enchanted Arms was mediocre, so I passed. ($60 prices have that effect on me.) Ultimate Alliance was fun, but it isn't an RPG. The others aren't out yet.


It's not mediocre. It's good. Penny Arcade and others here really liked it. It just has a couple of the types of problems that reviewers always like to lower scores over, like bad voice acting (I just listened to the Japanese voices instead). RPG reviews are usually bullshit anyway; FF games get 9's and anything else gets 6-8.

[RickH]

I don't think there's anything about the Wii which precludes hardcore gamers from buying it. The lack of HD might scare off the graphics whores, but that's an even smaller sub-group.

Everyone thought the Gamecube was technologically incapable of doing anything other than bright colors and cell-shaded anime characters until Resident Evil 4 came out. If the Wii is the top console this generation the games will come, and not just casual games like Brain Age and Cooking Mama.

I've got my Wii hooked up with component cables to a 60" HD set. It's pretty obvious that it's not an HD signal, but it's tolerable because of the craft Nintendo puts into its games. Last-gen Metroid Prime looked good, and I played it all the way through on the Wii. On a set closer to 30", I don't see it being a deal breaker.

Another thing: my wife asked me to look into the Wii Big Brain Academy game. Why? Because they were advertising it in Better Homes & Gardens. Nintendo's gone straight to the decisionmakers in a lot of homes. : )

[Matthew Gallant]

It will be interesting to see if Trusty Bell Starring Frederick Fucking Chopin moves a good deal of units (it released this week).
Well, it was #2 for the week, selling over 49,000 copies. Not bad, since there have only been 370K X360s sold in Japan.

So yeah, the Japanese appear to not have anything against the X360 per se, other than there aren't enough Trusty Bells being released for it.

[unbongwah]

According to reviews, Enchanted Arms was mediocre, so I passed.
I didn't finish it, but my view was it's a fairly run-of-the-mill RPG (in terms of game mechanics) with good production values. If that's all you want, you should be content. If you're bored of conventional console RPGs, though, I'm not sure there's enough to hold your interest, despite the prettiness. As the PA guys pointed out: it is what it is (http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/09/05).

[Chris Nahr]

Well, it was #2 for the week, selling over 49,000 copies. Not bad, since there have only been 370K X360s sold in Japan.

Embarrassingly, this sole 360 entry in the Japanese Top Ten beat the sole PS3 entry (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14407) (Ninja Gaiden Sigma) by 3,000 units...

All the rest of the chart are Nintendo titles. Not even a PS2 title anymore. But this does not faze self-appointed "Sony warrior" Howard Stringer! (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=26009)


Stringer assured the audience of over 7,000 shareholders that PlayStation 3 manufacturing problems were now behind the group, and the console is a "key driver" for future growth, according an Associated Press report.

"All the production problems have been solved. We are making a comeback already," commented a bullish Stringer.

"We always lose money in the hardware initially, and we recover that money gradually.

"We believe that the PS3 going forward will be vital to our future, and succeed," he said.