Vampire 7

[fire]

Rules:
There are two vampires and one seer, and everyone else is a normal villager. Days will begin at dawn around 9am PDT and end at dusk around 12am PDT. I will try to post a warning about an hour before dusk. Every day, the village must choose one person to stake (majority vote); every night, the vampires must choose one person to eat. The villagers win if both vampires are staked; the vampires win if all villagers are eaten. Once a player dies, he is out of the game and may not participate in it. Players may communicate in any way they choose. Please set your status to invisible. Please do not edit posts.

Players:
Andrew Myers
caesarbear
CaseyRobinson
Conrad
DrCrypt
jeffd
Qmanol
quatoria
rasputin
Rob Beschizza
soondifferent
Tranquility
Xeras

The game will begin shortly.

[fire]

http://img.timeinc.net/officepirates/files/images/blog/stone_470x579.jpg
You wake up to a blood-curdling scream. You leap out the door and rush to the village center. There, on the packed dirt floor of the village square, lies your village sherrif. His body has been mutilated; his clothes torn. He is pale and withered. Could he have been just 30? His corpse looks 65.

Vampires. Two sets of fangs: one on each wrist. They must have feasted together as a bonding ritual. How quaint.

It is not long before the rest of the village assembles in the square. Here you are: all thirteen of you. You have known each other for years. How did this happen? You must turn against each other, you must hunt. Two of you are vampires.

Choose someone to stake tonight, village.

[Kareem]

The proverbial shit hits the fan.

[jeffd]

Should we just stake Tranq to get him out of the way early? :D

(I kid, I kid)

[Kareem]

;_;

Wake up sleepies!

[DrCrypt]

Okay, I've barely even looked at the other threads, so my knowledge of this game is basically limited to what fire sleepily told me over IM before her morning coffee. As near as I can tell, early in the game, the bigger danger is being staked by your fellow terror-mad apes than having your throat sucked upon like a slurpee. So consider this my no doubt highly suspicious reassurance!

[jeffd]

Crypt: Basically. Unless we get *very* lucky it's likely we're going to off a villager on the first night. Somewhere out there the seer's dreamed of someone - so either we've got a nascent "circle of trust" (the dominant winning strategy so far) or a vamp is positively identified. The most important thing for today is to NOT STAKE THE SEER.

[DrCrypt]

I just don't understand how fucking hard it is to have people try jumping over a stream or something. And what kind of vampire wanders around by day having tea and crumpets with everyone?

[caesarbear]

Yeah not staking the seer is a good plan. So let's try not to pile on someone randomly. Let's just try to get to know our village a bit better first.

So... who do we think is the village idiot?

[DrCrypt]

Well, fire was just telling me Tranquility pretended to be a seer in Game 2 to "spice things up." Plus, he's using emoticons. Let's irrationally gang up on him!

[caesarbear]

I just don't understand how fucking hard it is to have people try jumping over a stream or something.
Ye ole crick dried up with this here drought.

[DrCrypt]

Also, I don't want to spoil Vampires Game 7 for anyone, but at the end, Shepherd Book and quatoria die.

[caesarbear]

Well, fire was just telling me Tranquility pretended to be a seer in Game 2 to "spice things up." Plus, he's using emoticons. Let's irrationally gang up on him!
Well, Tranq could be going for the double Tranqing, but you have a reputation for pissing in people's cheerios...

[Kareem]

I think this is our chance to get back at Crypt for posting those Serenity spoilers. Now's your time to act!

[jeffd]

Doc Crypt: Tranq did indeed screw up a previous game by going nuts. The verb "to Tranq" was adopted after him for someone that just behaves insanely in these games, for no good reason. There's also "to Rimbo," which is to lead the dogpile on innocent after innocent while the Vampires sit back and watch.

[Kareem]

May we forever live in infamy.

[Kareem]

Although that game did have one of the more entertaining first days of the vampire games, I have now seen the light. Let us together save this forsaken village.

[DrCrypt]

I love how the first staking will no doubt be a cathartic release of years of pent-up QT3 aggression. Man, if I'd known that spoling Serenity would have ended with me gasping "You silly fools..." through a gore-bubbling mouth as I wrestle with a 3 foot long sharpened dowel pounded through my chest, I never would have done it. I repent already!

[Kareem]

Thou art forgiven.

I pretended to be the seer's mouth, not the seer.

[Talisker]

Don't stake the seer, yeah. Problem is, the first day's staking has to be pretty much random -- any method we concoct to avoid staking the seer also servers to give the vampires likely seer targets.

Unless one of you is way cleverer than me, and can think of a vampire-proof way to assure a non-seer staking. Aside from the seer contacting his one known villager on day 1, and the two of them in concert swaying the vote towards a safer target.

Of course, a vampire could just as easily contact a villager, claim to be a seer, and pull the same shenanigans.

Man, this game really brings out any latent paranoid tendencies.

[Kareem]

Well, given the fact that Squirrel_Killer of the village of Vampsix got staked on day 1 simply for participating in the discussion, I believe the vampires will be lying low and making a minimum of a fuss on day 1, so I'm inclined personally to go after one of the quiet guys who haven't talked yet.

[jeffd]

Tranq: I doubt it. SK getting staked was an outlier; mostly based on luck and vamp desperation. As I recall someone went after him for being quick to dogpile and everyone else followed.

Historically the most successful vamp strategy is to have one be active and steer the discussion while the other remains mostly in the background, being quiet and waiting to vote until it's obvious a consensus is developing.

[DrCrypt]

But what if that's just what they're counting on?

Actually, laying totally low seems like a good idea for the first couple days, but it's a hell of a lot less fun. I don't see any point in playing if we're not going to gossip. In that mode, I'm more inclined to stake one of the less entertaining guys. Amuse us, people!

[DrCrypt]

Okay, I have a suggestion. Staking on first day is going to be random; there just isn't enough information. There's a seer out there, and he either knows one of the vampires, or he has one companion.

Since it's going to be random anyway, why don't we draw straws to see who gets staked? If someone gets picked and they freak out, we can then assume that they are either the seer or one of the two vampires.

At best, it allows us to start out on a rational foot, not second guessing one another based on past history or lack/too much communication. Since Fire is the arbiter, she could be the neutral party who rolls the dice for us.

[Kareem]

The problem with that strategy Crypt is that the seer is more often than not also probably lying low to avoid being the target of a staking like SK.

And jeff, what I meant was that the vamps would most likely lay low so as to avoid a random dogpile similar to what happened with SK. If you don't talk, it's not that likely that some small thing you said could be latched upon and used as a motivation to dogpile.

[Kareem]

My last post was referring to the strategy of staking the less participating people, not the other one on drawing straws.

[Conrad]

Seems like a good strategy for the seer to lay low as well, at least long enough to avoid the first-day "you spoke up first!" staking. Throwing a random stake into that crowd sounds risky at this point.

Edit: argh, beaten by Tranq

[jeffd]

Conrad: You're correct, except "random stake in the crowd" is at the end of the day all we have to go on. Alternatively we can just let other people pipe up and see where the mob takes us. So far only a handful of us have piped up.

[Stroker Ace]

Also, I don't want to spoil Vampires Game 7 for anyone, but at the end, Shepherd Book and quatoria die.LEMONPARTY RAAWWRRR

[Conrad]

You're correct, except "random stake in the crowd" is at the end of the day all we have to go on.

Sure, but you can try to limit your crowd to maximize your chances for success.

Yikes, I should write self-help books.

[DrCrypt]

"Sure, but you can try to limit your crowd to maximize your chances for success."

I don't understand this at all. Can you explain?

[Rasputin]

I say we take off and stake the site from orbit. Only way, yadda yadda.

We should wait until everyone pipes up, then see where that takes us. As long that that "where" isn't me. It's my first game, and staking this little villager on the first night is severely weak sauce. :)

[Rob Beschizza]

OK. First game!

I've only followed the last couple of games, but it seems obvious to me that turn 1 is random seething madness. Everything everyone says is amplified and then crapped on because it's all we've got to go on. Staking through the glory holes, if you will.

Now, I'd planned on being cautious and quiet because I'm new, but even that brings out the bug-eyed witchsmeller instinct, so screw it. I don't see much fun in being staked because of whims or dogpiles or mob psychology or whatever. Since the point of the game is to survive, we may as well just draw digital straws until we have more to act on.

That way, we also get some tension and grim inevitability to it, instead of the first few turns being The Crucible, again. I suggest fire moderate the drawing of digital straws, however that might be arranged.

[soondifferent]

I was going to repeat what I said back in game 3 -- that in the total absence of information we should stake high-post count villagers -- but the game has probably evolved since then. So I'm down with the d13.

[DrCrypt]

Needless to say, I'm also down. We can either go with mock psychology or we can just admit the first round is random, go for that, and hopefully give the seer a chance to build up this circle of trust that jeff d. was talking about.

Fire, if we get majority votes, can we make this the default plan for staking the first night?

[fire]

If you want randomness, a majority of I vote to draw straws will start the guess-my-number game.

[Conrad]

I don't understand this at all. Can you explain?

Hmm, seems pretty clear to me, but ok.

If we accept that the first stake is effectively random, we can try to limit the number of random-stake nominees in an attempt to skew the odds into our favor.

Your proposal, to stake a random non-participant, seems like a bad idea to me, for reasons Tranq and I both stated.

Whatever we do, let's try to minimize the chances of hitting a seer, please. I think we can do better than d13.

[Rasputin]

How exactly do we minimize if we have no info?

Also, I say we should stake the Sheriff first. He was fed on, and I'm not having this BS of a third vampire. Should probably cut off his head, and ram some garlic up his ass to be sure, although not in a gay way.

[DrCrypt]

"Your proposal, to stake a random non-participant, seems like a bad idea to me, for reasons Tranq and I both stated.

Whatever we do, let's try to minimize the chances of hitting a seer, please. I think we can do better than d13."

You totally misread what everyone is calling for. We're not talking about randomly staking a non-participant. We're talking about everyone, participant or no, draw straws. That's the point: someone being quiet isn't any sort of indication of them being a vampire or a seer. They could just be busy, they could just be laying low to maximize survival under the mock psychology established in previous games. Likewise, seers or vampires could be speaking up, to fly in the face of that psychology.

If everyone draws a straw, there is no mock psychology at play. Everyone has a 1/13 chance of dying tonight. There's a 1/6.5 chance we'll nail a vampire. There's a 1/13 chance we'll nail a seer. Those are pretty good odds.

[caesarbear]

I don't like this random idea at all. Why are some so quick to discount day one as nothing but randomness. Does every investigation have to become a Crucible? We need as much info as possible right? So why be so quick to end the first day with a die roll?

Any random roll runs the risk of revealing the seer. Plus, there's a fairly obvious way to prevent the seer from being staked, but right now it's not our best option. We need to get to know our village first.

[DrCrypt]

Nothing stops us from getting to know people at all. On day two, we can start the mock psychology, and we'll have all of day one to chew over. You're making like there's a way to prevent the seer from getting staked. Only thing I can think of is he writes everyone and makes himself known... then immediately gets his neck chomped open. Mob mentality is just as likely to stake him as a random roll.

[caesarbear]

There is a very obvious way to prevent the seer from being staked, think about it. It is however, a sub-optimal solution.

Forgive me, but for someone who claimed to barely know how the game is played, and hadn't displayed any knowledge of previous games, I don't think you should be the one dictating policy on day one.

[soondifferent]

Dammit, I just realized that it's a dangerous precedent to leave it up to the RNG. Maybe the purpose of day 1 is to fill the air with random, useless chaff that we can use to justify our choices later. If we draw straws, chances are that we'll end up in the same place tomorrow, and if we're not slinging poo today it'll be harder for the seer to take covert action later. So I'm out of the d13 club.

[DrCrypt]

"Forgive me, but for someone who claimed to barely know how the game is played, and hadn't displayed any knowledge of previous games, I don't think you should be the one dictating policy on day one."

Sorry, I wasn't aware that publicly and politely debating the merits of a course of action required a minimum number of games under my belt. Could you point out the person who SHOULD be dictating policy? I'll blindly follow him with nary a whimper. Thanks in advance.

And why don't you just tell us this brilliant way of preventing the seer from being staked, o philosopher king, as opposed to so darkly alluding to it? Because the only way I can think of is that the seer goes public. Which just gets him sucked.

[DrCrypt]

Dammit, I just realized that it's a dangerous precedent to leave it up to the RNG. Maybe the purpose of day 1 is to fill the air with random, useless chaff that we can use to justify our choices later. If we draw straws, chances are that we'll end up in the same place tomorrow, and if we're not slinging poo today it'll be harder for the seer to take covert action later. So I'm out of the d13 club.

I can see this perspective on the issue, for what it's worth. If it becomes a precedent for other games, that could suck the fun out of it, if it becomes the equivalent of putting an x in the middle square of a tic-tac-toe board. On the other hand, a moderator could always determine that it's not allowed.

[jeffd]

Why we wouldn't RNG on day 2: Because by then the seer will have correctly identified 3 of the remaining 11 people (himself and two others). At that point he can start moving events more clearly.

caesar: why not just draw straws for today? It's what it comes down to effectively. Notice no one's actually called for a staking yet - they know better. The dogpile on day one is historically unpredictable.

[Conrad]

You totally misread what everyone is calling for. We're not talking about randomly staking a non-participant. We're talking about everyone, participant or no, draw straws. That's the point: someone being quiet isn't any sort of indication of them being a vampire or a seer.
Umm, I was referring to...

Actually, laying totally low seems like a good idea for the first couple days, but it's a hell of a lot less fun. I don't see any point in playing if we're not going to gossip. In that mode, I'm more inclined to stake one of the less entertaining guys.
But I'm starting to suspect you knew that.

[Qmanol]

Here's how to prevent a seer staking - I'm a villager. I am not the seer. If you're really that paranoid about staking the seer, stake me instead. Booyah!

[DrCrypt]

But I'm starting to suspect you knew that.

Calm down there, Professor Paranoia. I didn't know that. You responded to that comment when the RNG discussion was in full swing, and you didn't quote. It was an easy mistake. And no one was seriously suggesting it anyway.

[jeffd]

Qman: Yeah, that's the obvious solution. I thought about falling on the grenade myself, but I've been really jazzed about playing in a Vampire game (after my enh experience with The Thing) so I didn't want to go out on the first day. :D

[caesarbear]

Here's how to prevent a seer staking - I'm a villager. I am not the seer. If you're really that paranoid about staking the seer, stake me instead. Booyah!
bingo

[caesarbear]

caesar: why not just draw straws for today?
We need to collect info. Drawing straws will hinder that process in my opinion.

Some observations:
DrCrypt is combative (duh) and draws attention to himself.

jeffd and Traq were quick to post once the game started.

[jeffd]

caesar: historically there's not much information to collect. I know we all fancy ourselves amateur psychologists who can go over a post with a fine tooth comb and determine what's really happening, but the fact is that's not the case, especially on day 1.

That being said, the RNG is suboptimal insofar as there's a risk of killing and/or exposing the seer. We're not going to get a vamp today unless we get very lucky or the Vamps are very stupid. So what we need to do is buy our seer time.

QMan's hit the right solution - he's volunteered to be staked to guarantee that we don't drop the seer. I'll go ahead and volunteer myself as well. It'll just make me sad to exit the game on day 1. :D

[CaseyRobinson]

OK, so I'm in a code review from hell and you guys are up to nearly 60 posts without a single "I vote to stake?" Not that I'm going to change that situation, untill I've had a chance to read them all.

[DrCrypt]

I'm really loathe to stake someone who puts himself up for the slaughter. It's just not fun, and unfair to the guy. I'd rather see the mob rule being put forward by the amateur Freudian brigade than do something that makes the game less fun.

[jeffd]

I doubt you're going to get unmitigated mob rule, Crypt. That happened in the first few games and ended pretty disastrously - I think the board zeitgeist has worked out a more measured approach to these games that's going to play out. The strategies for the villagers is pretty clear and successful; it just comes down to how well they execute it vs. how well the vamps screw things up.

[CaseyRobinson]

It could also be a clever long term ploy, something he can point to a few days from now, to "prove" his villager status.

[jeffd]

That too. Right now there's a lot happening under the surface - presumedly our seer's either dreamed of a vamp and is going to hopefully not get staked, or he's dreamed of a villager and the two of them are cuddling somewhere hoping neither of them get staked.

Qman's offered himself up for the staking - that'd be stupid if he was the seer, so we can safely stake him. Of course, now the vamps know he's not the seer as well; so they know they can safely ignore him. Of course, maybe he's a vamp pulling some sort of gambit; assuming we won't take him up on his offer, but that the offer itself will help deflect suspicion from him later. I was just about to PM him to do some behind the scenes chatting, but given that there's a chance he's a vamp trying an early-game play I think I'm going to keep all my communicating public for now.

[caesarbear]

Conversation out in the open benefits the villagers.

[quatoria]

Let's just serve the cause of justice by staking Tranquility, for all those villagers who wished they could have staked him twice in that earlier game. And, if you think about it, he'd make the perfect undercover vampire. He's got a reputation for being random and for irrationally leading games off track: who would think a vampire would pick him? Thus making him an ideal way to stay under the radar. Similarly, Crypt would either be a really good or really bad vampire pick, since he's both a rank newbie to the vampire games AND an infamous QT3 poster.

Lots of reasons to be suspicious of people, but in the end, on our most random day, I know I could sleep the sleep of the tranquil tonight if we decide to stake Tranquility.

[Qmanol]

Woo! I'm suspicious! Last game I was an unknown - now I'm a former vampire, with sneaky leanings.

[quatoria]

Meh. I'd be more suspicious of you if you'd actually been all that sneaky. :P

[jeffd]

quat: the problem is that there's a nonzero chance that Tranq is the seer.

[DrCrypt]

Lots of reasons to be suspicious of people, but in the end, on our most random day, I know I could sleep the sleep of the tranquil tonight if we decide to stake Tranquility.

"The sleep of the tranquil", eh? That sounds suspiciously like undead talk to me, buster!

But here's a question: Fire, were seers and vamps picked randomly? Or nonrandomly (ie: you thought one of us would make an excellent vampire, or a great seer?) Seems like quat's theory rests on this knowledge, and I think that should be made public.

[Qmanol]

I think the 2nd vampire is nonrandomly picked by the first vampire.

[fire]

But here's a question: Fire, were seers and vamps picked randomly? Or nonrandomly (ie: you thought one of us would make an excellent vampire, or a great seer?) Seems like quat's theory rests on this knowledge, and I think that should be made public.
The first vampire was picked at random with a d20, throwing out rolls of 14 and higher (if applicable).

The second vampire was picked by the first vampire.

The seer was picked at random with a d20, throwing out rolls of 14 and higher and vampires (if applicable).

[jeffd]

Seer and vamp1 are picked randomly. Vamp1 picks Vamp2. Typically if Vamp1 picks Seer as Vamp2 then we get a new seer to keep things from sucking.

[caesarbear]

So then should we ask everyone: if you were a vampire who would you pick?

If I were a vamp, I might have an eye on Xeras as a second. Xeras is an unknown nigh-lurker yet during the sign-ups was keen enough to ask what form of rules would be used.

There are still only a handful of townspeople in the discussion.

[DrCrypt]

I'd probably pick quatoria or Rob. Quatoria and I are pals, and I think that would be sort of fun. Beschizza is a guy who's writing I really like and would like to know better. Seems like you'd really pick someone you get along fairly well with, to sort of maximize your fun.

Of course, I'm not really sure how far this line of inquiry really goes. Do we stake the guy who gets the most votes as preferred second vampire? Also, the vampire's probably just going to lie. OR IS HE?

[quatoria]

quat: the problem is that there's a nonzero chance that Tranq is the seer.

There's a nonzero chance that any one of us is the Seer, jeffd, but there's a 0% chance that any of us can prove seerhood. And, let's be frank here, it would be awfully sadistic of Fire to pick tranquility as the seer. Even if I got a PM from him claiming to be the seer, I'm not sure I'd believe it. Would you?

[jeffd]

caesar: That's a terrible line of reasoning that goes nowhere, except to the random dogpile. The random dogpile only benefits the vampires.

You're right though, only a handful of folks have participated so far. It's still the work day, lots of folks probably can't participate much 'til later on.

[Talisker]

I can see how drawing straws makes for a more "fair" first day; however, by relegating the decision to pure chance, we potentially lose some of the information we'd get via discussion and voting.

Volunteering to get staked is clearly the safest route (that is, assuming the damage done by accidentally staking the seer would be far, far worse than the benefit from randomly staking a vampire) -- in the best interests of the village, I'd say that's the preferable route to take.

Qmanol is almost certainly a straight villager, as he volunteered first, and there'd be considerable risk that we'd all go "OK, stake Qmanol!" jeffd, on the other hand, could've followed up as a clever ploy -- unlikely, but I'd say Qmanol is more likely a villager at this point.

Thus between the two volunteer stakees, I vote for jeffd.

[quatoria]

I'd probably pick quatoria or Rob. Quatoria and I are pals, and I think that would be sort of fun. Beschizza is a guy who's writing I really like and would like to know better. Seems like you'd really pick someone you get along fairly well with, to sort of maximize your fun.

If I got first pick as vampire, I'd definately go for Crypt, just because I think he and I would have a hell of a lot of fun with it. Honestly, I'm kind of bummed that I didn't get picked, but after game 3, I imagine whoever the vampire was thought I'd be a pretty clear choice to eat a stake or get dreamed of pretty early on. Eventually I'll get to see how the other half unlives, though, I hope.

[Conrad]

Alright, let's get this party started.

I vote to stake DrCrypt.

Reasoning:
- He's been steering votes away from himself, first with the "stake the quiet" deal, and then pushing for the d13 thing (d13 is way better for him than "stake the chatty")
- His opposition to villager-advantageous moves (staking a volunteer, his derision of strategy discussion as "mock psychology")
- His Professor Paranoia post was a bit panicky and defensive. Plus it seemed like he was intentionally obtuse in that conversation, culminating in his false claim that he was confused because I didn't quote (I did).
- IM-ing fire this morning re the game. Smells like "omg I'm a special player, what do I do?!?" to me. If he were a villager, he could hang out and see what goes on, or check out the other threads.
- With a name like DrCrypt, c'mon man, of course he's a vamp. I know it's obvious, but it's also obvious how obvious it is, which could make it a good play for the alpha vamp to pick him.

I think it's a very low-risk staking. If he were the seer, he wouldn't come out against staking a volunteer, since that would protect him. This is key, in my mind.

Plus, the downside of killing a volunteer is that we're still sacrificing one of our major sources of information, that being the voting record. If we really want to kill a volunteer, we can do it tomorrow.

There you go. It's a little soft, but I think it's a whole lot better than random.

[jeffd]

quat: fire picked the seer randomly.

The only person we can say with any certainty isn't the seer is probably Qman; for the seer to offer himself up like that would be insanely suicidal.

[jeffd]

Andrew: :(

[quatoria]

quat: fire picked the seer randomly.

The only person we can say with any certainty isn't the seer is probably Qman; for the seer to offer himself up like that would be insanely suicidal.

Yeah, but picking Tranquility would be SADISTIC random.

[Talisker]

Andrew: :(
Nothing personal -- as a matter of fact, you have my enormous respect for volunteering. However, as far as volunteers go, while I'm inclined to trust both you and Qmanol, again, the one who volunteered first strikes me as the most trustworthy.

(All that said, was also throwing out the first vote in an attempt to get the vote ball rolling -- I'm not exactly dead set on my vote. If there's any good strategery in a different direction, I'm all ears)

[DrCrypt]

IM-ing fire this morning re the game. Smells like "omg I'm a special player, what do I do?!?" to me. If he were a villager, he could hang out and see what goes on, or check out the other threads.

I won't argue any of the other points, since they're all valid opinions, as far as they go. But this one isn't correct: Alex and I have been buddies for like a year, and we talk to each other on AIM constantly through out the day. It's actually more natural for me to just ask her to explain the rules than sift through all the other threads, which I just don't have time for.

Of course, if most of your reasoning was valid, another interpretation, Conrad, is that I'm the seer. Steering votes away from myself? Check. Panicky and defensive? Check. IMing Fire ostensibly because I'm a "special player"? I already explained that, but if you don't believe me, that's another point. Pointing out that I could be the seer NOW? Check.

[jeffd]

Andrew: The strategy's good either way - you're protecting the seer. I just don't want to go out on day one, like I said - I didn't like the Thing game much and was hoping to have more fun here.

That being said - if you guys are going to stake me could you make it quick, and maybe - y' know - take me by surprise? I'll die for our little village, but uhh I'd rather not see it coming.

[fire]

You are all welcome to IM me, PM me, ICQ me, IRC me, phone me, whatever, anytime you like.

Edit: No hiding in the bushes outside my door, and no shooting pigeons near my house.

[DrCrypt]

No edits, fire!

[Conrad]

Of course, if most of your reasoning was valid, another interpretation, Conrad, is that I'm the seer.

I considered that for awhile. But I've already specifically addressed why I don't think you are the seer. And since you read my post well enough to craft this defense, I'll assume you read that as well. And yet, you chose not to address it, which is itself suspicious.

Re the IMs, that was pure conjecture, but it fit the pattern, so I ran with it.

[DrCrypt]

I didn't respond to it because it was silly and total mock psychology, the very thing I've been trying to get people to avoid on day one. Your claim was that if I were a seer, I wouldn't object to a volunteer staking themselves. But it leaves a bad taste in my mouth just because if you've waited a few weeks to play in this game, volunteer or no, I just think it totally sucks to go out like that.

Anyway, if I live through the night and don't end up either staked or slurpeed, I guess we'll see.

[Rasputin]

I vote to stake Qmanol. He asked for it, he gets it.

[Qmanol]

Well, I've been in a previous game, and was the last surviving vampire in that game anyway, so I've already had some fun. My antipodean origin also makes up-to-the-minute participation in this one somewhat difficult, so you're not exactly losing a world-class asset. Anyway, better a volunteer than a seer, or someone who really wants to play.

If you have suspicions, run with them, (after all, the last game hit a vamp on the first day) I only offer myself as an alternative to the d13 strategy.

[caesarbear]

caesar: That's a terrible line of reasoning that goes nowhere, except to the random dogpile. The random dogpile only benefits the vampires.

Why does it lead to a random dogpile?

What's your suggestion for the villagers on day one? You endorsed randomness before. Is that all you have? A lot of posting out of you, but not many suggestions. Step it up and think about what can happen.

[Rob Beschizza]

I don't have a copy of Math for Villagers Desperately Wanting To Not get Staked or Eaten. However, I'm pretty sure that turn 1 is a statistical haze where the only thing you've got is intuition and poker faces, i.e. nothing.

So, the rational, game-winning side of me wants to pick sticks. It's the powergamer thing to do. It's the "make a living counting cards at the blackjack table" thing to do: nothing good can happen, sure, but it respects the lack of odds by not actively bungling into error.

The offer of sacrifice is, however, very tempting. It hurts the vamps more than the seer, I believe - their seer candidate list goes from 11 possibilities in 11 other players down to 10/11. But we get a 11/11 chance of not staking the seer ourselves. And keeping the seer alive is paramount.

Assuming, of course, our erstwhile lamb is not just an extraordinarily brave vampire. But they have nothing to gain in the offering. The worst we can do is to kill a villager! Because a seer who offers to sacrifice himself is not playing at all reasonably.

Staking DrCrypt would be an archetypal mob staking: engaged early with the game, posts frequently, stout disposition, history of annoying other players. We've even had a detailed, bullet-pointed list of why we should stake him! About 6 hours into the game!

So, I'm going to think about it for a bit, and maybe read through the old games :)

[jeffd]

You seem awful tense. Does something have you feeling upset?

I endorsed randomness only insofar as it was the equivalent of the dogpiling that often occurs on the first day. However two far better choices have come along - stake Qman or me.

Why does it lead to a random dogpile?

What's your suggestion for the villagers on day one? You endorsed randomness before. Is that all you have? A lot of posting out of you, but not many suggestions. Step it up and think about what can happen.

[caesarbear]

You seem awful tense. Does something have you feeling upset?
Ok, there Mr. Let's Not Start a Dogpile.

I endorsed randomness only insofar as it was the equivalent of the dogpiling that often occurs on the first day. However two far better choices have come along - stake Qman or me.
And that's what you suggest we do? That's your contribution?

[Qmanol]

Fine then. You want action? Contribution?

I vote to stake caesarbear.

[caesarbear]

Well what is that supposed to accomplish? I though we were trying to avoid the dogpile? I didn't say action, I'm asking for suggestions.

[Qmanol]

Suggestions based on what? It's all hearsay and odd facial tics at this point. I've offered an alternative, but if people feel that there's a better one, feel free to choose it.

[caesarbear]

Suggestions of strategy, not who to stake. What should we be doing right now?

[quatoria]

Well, I've been in a previous game, and was the last surviving vampire in that game anyway, so I've already had some fun. My antipodean origin also makes up-to-the-minute participation in this one somewhat difficult, so you're not exactly losing a world-class asset. Anyway, better a volunteer than a seer, or someone who really wants to play.

If you have suspicions, run with them, (after all, the last game hit a vamp on the first day) I only offer myself as an alternative to the d13 strategy.

I thought I should say: when I was a seer in game 3, one of the things we really, really appreciated was having villagers who were willing to eat a stake or bite to protect us. It really is one of the single most useful things any villager can do for the village. (Assuming the seer isn't a retard, that is.) Right now, more than anything else, our seer needs time to dream, time to confirm humans, and time to gather people they can trust. It's our job to give them that time.

[CaseyRobinson]

This is the part of the game where we stake someone almost at random. Maybe, if we're lucky, we'll have some kind of logic like "he was the first one to second a vote" or "he knows what he's doing, so the vamps would want him on their side." Or maybe even "He's clearly a loon." But then, most of the time, that person turns out to just be some poor sap.

Then we move on to day two when we fling accusations based on who was really pushing for said poor sap. I don't know how that will play out if we stake someone who asks for it. (In the "Hey, stake me" sense and not the "Hi I'm clearly a vampire" sense.)

[Rob Beschizza]

I've thought about it, and Qmanol's offer of sacrifice seems too good to pass up. I feel bad about it, naturally, but there's really nothing to lose as far as strategy is concerned, unless Qmanol were the seer, in which case his offer would be silly and game-ruining behavior.

Is it not almost like when a player leaves a game of risk, leaving the nearest player with a big advantage? Villager sacrifices could be a problem for this game, maybe: it obviously wouldn't happen in the heat of a face to face party game where everyone wants to "win," but in this format, it's easier to see the big picture...

So, I vote to stake Qmanol, whose honorable sacrifice benefits the team, though naturally makes it rather less fun for Qmanol.

[jeffd]

OK villagers, I think quat is right. We must not succumb to the mob mentality! Not only is our individual existance at stake - so is the very life of the village we've lived in for so long.

Here's what needs to happen: Every day, someone who is not either a) the seer or b) in the seer's circle needs to volunteer himself up to be staked. One and only one person should do this.

Our priority right now cannot be killing vampires - we simply don't have enough evidence to go off of; we probably won't for at least another two days. Our priority must be protecting the seer and his trusted circle while they do their work.

This will ensure two things:
1) We don't inadvertently dogpile the seer
2) We don't risk the seer revealing himself in order to prevent a dogpile on someone in his trusted circle.

If we do this, we cast a bright light in the eyes of the creatures that stalk amongst us. Without any way to determine who might be the seer, the creatures will be reduced to random stabs in the darkness and their destruction is almost assured.

Look, your path forward is clear. Today you must stake either myself or Qman. If the other survives the night, you must stake him tomorrow. If not, another one of you villagers who is not in contact with the seer must step forward and sacrifice yourself for our villager. This must continue until the seer reveals himself and reveals to the surviving villagers who the vampires are.

This is the best way forward. It means my death of course - I'm pretty sure I'm for the stake tonight, and if we do Qman instead then the vamps will probably put the fang to me - but I believe that so long as we stay calm, focused, and remember that the survival of our village is at stake (hee!) we will prevail.

[Rasputin]

I almost changed my vote because of that pun, Jeff.

Qman, your issue with the time that the days end was one of my reasons for taking you up on your offer. :)

[jeffd]

rasputin I can't tell you how many pun I almost inadvertently stuck in that post. It was inevitable that I was going to let one sneak past!

[Qmanol]

What we should be doing? Well, the seer should be working on his circles of trust and whatnot, and we should be trying to guess who is a vamp simply by their behaviour. The problem is that there are a lot of villagers who will act suspiciously, so it's always good to get seer info. And by an innocent villager sacrificing himself, we increase the odds of the seer living to get and spread that info.

However, in the interests of baseless fingerpointing, I haven't seen soondifferent say anything yet...

[caesarbear]

I vote to stake Qmanol. He asked for it, he gets it.
You were saying that we should wait until everyone has a say before. What made you change your mind?

[Qmanol]

Also, I recommend that we don't have the situation that Jeff has put up, where 2 people volunteer to sacrifice themselves. If that happens, then the seer has to avoid dreaming about them, so that they don't suddenly go "Uh guys? I don't want to be staked any more. No, I'm not part of the seer's circle, ARGAHAHGAHGAULGA, a vampire's got me!"

And if the seer then avoids dreaming about them, the vamps might try hiding one of their own in there. One martyr at a time, thanks.

[jeffd]

Qmanol is dead on the money. One and only one volunteer. This is why a) the seer shouldn't dream about me or Qmanol tonight and b) if one of us hpapens to not get the fang we should be the one to be staked tomorrow.

[caesarbear]

jeffd's plan has some flaws, but it has a lot of merit as well. Anyway, we have a plan for the end of the day. I'm still waiting to hear from everyone.

[Rasputin]

You were saying that we should wait until everyone has a say before. What made you change your mind?

He volunteered. Also, other people started talking. Doesn't mean I can't cast my vote.

Besides, my primary concern is not getting whacked in the first night on my first game. You hear that vampires? NO EATY ME!!!! If you do, you're total dicks.

[soondifferent]

What we should be doing? Well, the seer should be working on his circles of trust and whatnot, and we should be trying to guess who is a vamp simply by their behaviour. The problem is that there are a lot of villagers who will act suspiciously, so it's always good to get seer info. And by an innocent villager sacrificing himself, we increase the odds of the seer living to get and spread that info.

However, in the interests of baseless fingerpointing, I haven't seen soondifferent say anything yet...

Try posts #34 and #43. Man, I wrote a whole bunch in game 3 and still got pegged as one of those quiet, under the radar types. Do my posts show up in white or something?

Anyway, since you graciously offered, I vote for Qmanol. (now, in unison!)

[Rimbo]

I am a Philosophical Zombie.

[jeffd]

I vote for Qmanol. Sorry duder - but I figure whichever one of us doesn't get staked is gonna get the fang and well I'd like to eke out a few more hours of my measly existence.

[Talisker]

OK, I'm on board -- retracting previous vote; I vote for Qmanol.

[caesarbear]

No don't vote for Qmanol. If there has to be a sacrifice, I'll be it. Vote for me.

We still haven't heard from everyone, there is no reason to stake yet. We have time. As a village we outnumber the vampires right now. Because of this we can trust in ourselves the first day. One vocal vampire can't sway all of us. There's more that we can do today.

[Xeras]

In order to keep things moving, I vote to stake Qmanol.

[caesarbear]

In order to keep things moving, I vote to stake Qmanol.
Why do they have to keep moving?

Would you change your vote to me instead?

[Xeras]

Why do they have to keep moving?
Well if you don't mind our game not ever ending I guess things don't have to keep moving.

Would you change your vote to me instead?
I would consider it, but I don't see a compelling reason for me to change it at this point.

[caesarbear]

Well if you don't mind our game not ever ending I guess things don't have to keep moving.
If you are resigned that nothing can be accomplished on the first day other than not staking the seer, then yeah, there is no point in discussion. I don't agree with that though.

I would consider it, but I don't see a compelling reason for me to change it at this point.
What's the compelling reason for dogpiling on Qmanol?

[Qmanol]

What's the compelling reason for dogpiling on Qmanol?

A lack of any other infomation. Oh, and I volunteered. Gah. Eating brains must be more fun than this.

[jeffd]

It's not a dogpile. He offered himself up as a way to guarantee we don't inadvertently stake and/or expose our seer.

Seriously I explained this pretty thoroughly - do you honestly not understand how this strategy works? Or are you just trying to disrupt it?


What's the compelling reason for dogpiling on Qmanol?

[caesarbear]

When did staking Qmanol become the best option?

[Kareem]

I believe this whole sacrifice idea is a bit stupid. So we're guaranteed to stake a villager who isn't the seer? Well, we're also giving up the chance to stake a vampire on day 1 like the other guys. Either way would be dumb luck, but to simply give up that chance for the illusion of safety that we're supposed to get by staking one of our fellow humans?

In fact, I'm suspicious of rasputin for being the first to jump on Qmanol after he announced he wouldn't mind sacrificing himself.

Also, now that it seems obvious Q is human, we ought to let him stay alive. If he gets killed in the night the vamps have wasted a kill since we know he isn't a seer, and if he doesn't die we have a known human in our midst.

[jeffd]

of course it's the best option. Qmanol, then me.

This isn't very hard to figure out - we are not going to get a vamp on day one. If you believe that you are either addled, or you're a vampire hoping to disrupt the village. It's pretty much dumb luck.

The best way to win is to let the seer establish his circle. My strategy guarantees that the seer doesn't have to expose himself, and won't get killed inadvertently by the village. That leaves us with only the slim chance of the vamps randomly picking him.

But I've gone over all that already - and it's pretty obvious. You guys aren't raising any substantive objections, which is pretty suspicious. If I was the seer (and I'm not; I'm going to be dead very soon remember?) I'd be dreaming about you guys pretty quickly.

[jeffd]

Also: My strategy has the side benefit of not giving the vampires opportunities to make trouble. One vllager volunteers to be staked and then you stake him. It's simple and it gives the village the best chance to survive.

[caesarbear]

I'm not sure how you became the originator of the martyr idea, jeffd, but as good as the plan you posted is, it has some critical flaws. Don't be so arrogant to think that you have a perfect answer. Do some more thinking about it.

The best possible outcome on day one is to stake a vamp. Can that be in argument? Of course the chances are very slim, but what then is the next best possible outcome? We are not simply voters, we are participants.

[Conrad]

If we can establish a reasonable belief that someone besides Qmanol is not the seer, it seems to me to be a better play to stake that person. You get a chance to stake a vamp, and one of our most trustworthy villagers gets to live. Hence my vote for DrCrypt.

If the masses insist on staking a volunteer, I think Andrew Myers nailed it (post 72) -- let's stake jeffd. He was the second volunteer, and thus somewhat less trustworthy than the first. I'm willing to change my vote if there is agreement on this.

[jeffd]

Why don't you point out some of the critical flaws?

I'll type of a lengthier post of my analysis of the game and where it's likely to go

[Xeras]

Would you change your vote to me instead?
The best possible outcome on day one is to stake a vamp. Can that be in argument? Of course the chances are very slim, but what then is the next best possible outcome? We are not simply voters, we are participants.

Hmmmmm. Does something not add up here to everyone else?

[caesarbear]

It means my death of course - I'm pretty sure I'm for the stake tonight, and if we do Qman instead then the vamps will probably put the fang to me - but I believe that so long as we stay calm, focused, and remember that the survival of our village is at stake (hee!) we will prevail.
There's a flaw here. Why would the Vampires kill you?

[quatoria]

Actually, at this point, I'm thinking we should stake caesarbear, since he's arguing loudly and longly that we should either sit and do nothing for an indeterminate amount of time, or pick someone totally at random, which is the worst possible play to make on Day 1. So either he's a vamp trying to cause chaos, or he's addled, and either way, he's not contributing to the village's survival - except by acting as a screen for the seer if he eats a stake today.

[quatoria]

In fact, you know what? I vote to stake caesarbear. Something about your logic smells fishy. It's probably not the smell of the undead - more likely the smell of the crazy guy who hasn't been washed by his caretaker yet - but either way, let's stick a stake in it and bury it in a shallow grave.

[caesarbear]

Hmmmmm. Does something not add up here to everyone else?
Don't cast vague innuendos, speak up. Do your duty for your village and explain your suspicions in full detail.

[caesarbear]

If you guys want to hand me the Rimbo award, that's fine, but we are doing something right now. It's not just nothing.

[jeffd]

Go ahead and stake me, just make it quick.

Anyway, analysis incoming:

There are several factors at play here. Our best chance at victory is to preserve the life of the seer - if the seer dies the odds shift drastically in the Vampire's favor. You can google the math if you like; I'm not going to do it for you - however mathematically this game is well understood.

At this point, the seer has dreamed of one person. This presents us with the following scenarios:
- 2/12 (about 8%): The seer has dreamed of a Vampire - we are in good shape if this is the case.
- 101/2 (about 92%): The seer has dreamed of a villager. Presumedly the seer has then contacted this villager and is beginning to form a nascent circle of trust. The seer may wait however until tomorrow night's dream; but this would probably be a bad thing. If the seer dies tonight we want to know it; so it pays for the seer to have contacted a villager.

So at this point, the most likely scenario is that the seer has one confidante.

The first thing that happens today is that we stake someone. Given the above, here is who we might stake:
- 2/13 (about 15%): We stake a Vampire. This is the best possible outcome.
- 1/13 (about 7.5%): We stake the seer. This is the worst possible outcome.
- 1/13 (about 7.5%): We stake the seer's confidante. This is the second-worst possible outcome.
- 9/13 (about 70%): We stake a random villager. This is the second best possible outcome.

So right off the bat, we've got roughly equal odds of the worst outcomes as we do the best outcomes. Of course, these outcomes aren't valued equally - obviously if we kill the confidante it's not nearly so bad as killing the seer. Really though, the problem is that despite how unlikely it is, killing the seer is such a bad outcome that it is not worth rolling the dice on killing a vampire.

Going with my martyrdome strategy has several advantages:
1) The seer does not get inadvertently staked.
2) The seer does not have to risk exposing him or herself to protect a member of the circle of trust while it is still in its most nascent form. On Days 3 and 4 the circle will be much more powerful, capable of operating more openly. Today and tomorrow it is of the utmost importance that we protect the seer and his confidante.
3) This system minimizes the opportunity vampires have to get a "free" kill. We lose two villagers per day; but only one of those villagers is of the vampire's choosing. They'd love nothing more than to have an opportunity to direct that second kill.

Killing me and/or Qman guarantees that you do not kill a seer. It also guarantees that you do not kill a vampire - but honestly so long as the seer survives the odds shift againts the vampires. The early-game loss of the seer is the worst possible outcome for the long-term survival of our village.

If you're capable of any kind of substantive rebuttal of the merits of my strategy, or if you'd like to propose a counter-strategy of your own feel free. But right now you're both just blustering, which is frankly kind of suspicious.

[jeffd]

Oh and as to why the vamps will kill me tonight: Because if they don't they're giving me an opportunity to collaborate privately with the seer tomorrow. That's something it's in their best interest to avoid. Also - to toot my own horn - I'm the only person who's actually strategizing openly.

[caesarbear]

I'm the only person who's actually strategizing openly.
The hell you are. And why would the seer collaborate privately with you tomorrow?

[jeffd]

Who else is openly strategizing caesar? No offense buddy, I know we've been neighbors for a while (but I figure under the threat of vampiric annihilation courtesy can take a backseat) but what you've been doing here doesn't count for strategizing any more than whatever it is you do with your flower beds counts as gardening... :D

[caesarbear]

So the only strategizing we can do is numbers?

[caesarbear]

And leave my flowers out of this!

[jeffd]

Of course not. That's why this game is much better than the Thing.

Let me put it this way - what do you propose as an alternative to my martyrdome strategy? The only thing I've heard is "Let's try to figure out who's acting all suspicious!" which is pretty much random - it assumes that the vampires are going to do something to stand out. They'd have to be pretty frickin' stupid to do that - and while vile, these bloodsucking creatures of the night are anything but stupid.

and those aren't flowers buddy, they're dandelions - what we folk like to call "weeds"

[caesarbear]

The only thing I've heard is "Let's try to figure out who's acting all suspicious!"
That's not what I've said, but then my idea didn't go anywhere 'cause you stomped on it. Just like you keep stomping on my flowerbed!

Here's another question, and you can do us a favor and shut up for a moment, jeffd. Who do we think is the village e5? Who's not showing up for this party?

[jeffd]

ahh, that's right. "Who would you choose if you were a vampire?"

What information do you think that would get us, if everyone answered the question?

Just for kicks (and cards on the table) I'd pick:
- rasputin, since he and I are buddies
- Dunno who else honestly; I don't know anyone else well enough. Quatoria or Crypt are the first ones that spring to mind.

[Rob Beschizza]

jeffD's strategy is the best thing going. It's only possible because of the existence of willing sacrifices, which is, when you think about it, a completely abnormal state of affairs in gaming.

I have no idea why caesarbear is being so abrasive and unwilling to substantially discuss what he's getting so wound up about, especially with the half-hearted offer of sacrifice followed by criticism of the very idea, etc. But, with they way this game is, it would be foolish to read anything into it at this point.

If jeffd's stats are right, Qmanol's sacrifice trades away the small chance of staking a vampire for a very good chance of the seer surviving to finding the truth about one other villager: the vamps have to get the seer tonight to stop this. There's no way to completely avoid the lucky bite, but really, it's the only turn 1 strategy (so far?) that isn't simply based on reading the tealeaves of people's posts.

[caesarbear]

Rob, do you not want to answer any of the questions I posed? Do you think they are a waste of time?

[jeffd]

(musing) I think the thing I like best about my strategy is that it's immune to vamp sabotage as far as I can tell. If we all just stake martyrs until the seer makes himself known through his chosen buddies then the vamps really can't do much - if they try to steer us away from staking the volunteer then they've instantly cast suspicion on themselves. If they step forward in some bizarre reverse psychology bid - well then good riddance!

I think the course forward is pretty clear. Stake either me or Qmanol tonight. If the other person survives, stake him tomorrow. if not, someone who isn't in contact with the seer must step forward and volunteer to be staked to save our village. We've effectively reduced the vampires to randomly poking around trying to stop the seer, and that pretty much hoses them.

[Qmanol]

Alright, caesar. The only other strategy for this segment of the game is to get rid of the people who are acting suspicious, or the people who are acting crazy. Thinking "Who would I pick as a vampire" is semi-fruitless, because people will try to confound that. I picked MikeSofaer with a d12. So, crazy man, who should we vote for?

[caesarbear]

Hey, semi-fruitless is not fruitless. I didn't claim that we would suddenly get an answer from asking questions.

[Rob Beschizza]

Rob, do you not want to answer any of the questions I posed? Do you think they are a waste of time?

I didn't mean to be adversarial, sorry. As for your questions, the one that really interests me is the one about people who haven't showed up yet. But the reasons for this could be anything, so I don't think anything can be read into it. And that's the problem with pretty much any early speculation. If there are other questions that help us get past that, maybe it would help if you could rhetorically answer them: it's the "answer" to the sacrifice strategy, flawed as it might be, that made me switch to it from the RNG proposal, not the question itself.

The best deal, but it's one that's not usually going to be on the table. Players sacrificing themselves on the first turn of a game, like I say, it's pretty weird. I'd be tempted to make it against the rules, because It seems to me to be an easy way of forcing the game along a certain statistical path (though there's obviously still much room for vamps to get lucky or upset the cart or whatever)

Sure, i'm guessing at all this, but what is a better plan? I haven't googled the game, yet, and didn't really want to do so until after my first go!

[jeffd]

The sacrifice plan I think is basically the best village strategy - it forces the vamps into just playing the odds. Probably the best solution is to make it so the villagers win individually, rather than collectively. e.g. if you die you're a loser!

But given the game as it's formulated the collective strategy is IMO the best one to pursue. SACRIFICE YOURSELF FOR THE GOOD OF THE STA^H^H^HVILLAGE

[caesarbear]

You guys aren't thinking past day one are you?

[jeffd]

My plan pretty explicitly covers the entire game.

[DrCrypt]

I vote to stake caesarbear. I think everyone agrees he's acting a bit squirrely.

[Kareem]

Did jeffd just say that each villager should submit himself to get sacrificed every day until the seer randomly manages to dream of a total of 2 vampires?

That's stupidly suicidal. Aside from the fact that someone will volunteer every day to get killed you're giving the vampires enough leverage to go after those who are NOT sacrificing themselves, with the very strong likelihood that one of those they go after is the seer. And what happens when the seer dreams of several humans in a row, like the inordinate amount of bad luck they had in the first Thing game? What then?

It's a rather retarded strategy and I'm beginning to believe you are bluffing with your offer of sacrifice on day 2.

[Kareem]

If you were fire's random number generator, who would you pick?

[jeffd]

Tranq: You obviously haven't thought through it. Your objections are absurd to the point of being flat-out nonsensical.

- Someone's gonna get staked every day no matter what. My strategy ensures that a) the person getting staked is neither the seer, nor someone the seer trusts and b) the vampires cannot use staking to get a "free" targeted kill.
- There is not a very strong likelihood that the vamps get the seer. In fact, they are reduced to their worst possible odds under my strategy. Because the seer never has to defend himself against a random accusation, or defend a member of the circle against a random accusation, the vampires cannot possibly glean who the seer is. My plan actually maximizes the likelihood of the seer's survival
- If the seer dreams of lots of villagers that's a good thing. Unlike the Thing game, once someone is proven to be a villager they can be trusted for good.

Let me demonstrate this. Assuming the seer never dreams of a vamp and vamps don't get staked:
Day 1: 13 players, 11 humans, the seer knows of 2 definite humans (himself and who he dreamed of)
Day 2: 11 players, 9 humans, the seer knows of 3 definite humans.
Day 3: 9 players, 7 humans, the seer knows of 4 definite humans.
Day 4: 7 players, 5 humans, the seer knows of 5 definite humans. humans win by default.

It's much more likely that the vamps will inadvertently kill a few trusted humans; so the Day 4 scenario is probably more like "7 players, 5 human, the seer knows of 3 definite humans." Still not bad odds - the seer and his buddies have nearly 50% of the total votes.

The crucial thing is that so long as the seer and his buddies stay alive they control the voting.

But this is all pretty obvious. Your objections lack any substance whatsoever. Caesarbear seems to at least be thinking this through, you just seem to be raising a hubbub for no reason. You're probably a vampire.

[Talisker]

While I want to stake caesarbear, jeffd's martyr strategy seems really strong (albeit boring) -- I still think jeffd himself is the best pick for the first staking, but I'll leave my vote on Qmanol for tonight; we'll stake jeffd tomorrow night.

[fire]

http://picture-poems.com/week2/evening.jpeg
Night approaches.

There is arguing. You surround Qmanol and tie him to a post hammered squarely into the ground. Qmanol does not resist; "I'll take it for the village," he says.

Cast your votes! As it stands, when night comes, Qmanol will be staked.

[Kareem]

You seem pretty confident that the vampires will never pick the seer, which is extremely misleading, especially since every day we're basically taking one person who offers himself to be staked completely out of the equation and narrows down the choices for the vampires with every subsequent villager who nominates himself to get the stake.

[Kareem]

I can't bring myself to vote for Qmanol because I know he's a villager and I'd rather he get killed tomorrow by the vampires so they waste a kill.

I vote to stake jeffd.

[fire]

Current scoresheet:

Andrew Myers - Qmanol
caesarbear - NONE
CaseyRobinson - NONE
Conrad - DrCrypt
DrCrypt - caesarbear
jeffd - Qmanol
Qmanol - caesarbear
quatoria - caesarbear
rasputin - Qmanol
Rob Beschizza - Qmanol
soondifferent - Qmanol
Tranquility - jeffd
Xeras - Qmanol

[Talisker]

Actually, as I think about it further, I'm as certain as I can be (without being the seer) that Qmanol is not a vampire. If he is, he's got the biggest set of vampire stones we've seen yet :)

However, caesarbear seems to be actively thwarting The Martyr Plan (which I think is sound) -- thus making him dangerous. So, I'm switching again -- I vote for caesarbear.

[Morkilus]

nnghghgzzzggrhg

[jeffd]

We're coming up on the dealine - so look: here's something that's crucial. YOU MUST STAKE ME TOMORROW IF I SURVIVE. Qmanol's not going to come up a vampire, and if I don't get the fang tonight you guys might have second thoughts. DON'T. First thing tomorrow, if I'm still here vote to stake me. Seer, don't dream of me tonight - it's a wasted dream, it'll confirm for you that I'm human but that's pointless because I'm dead.

Keep up with my strategy and I'm pretty sure the village has a good shot at survival. Good luck people; I'm off to bed and I don't anticipate making it through the night. I'm going to sleep with a shotgun next to me - if the vamps come for me; well I don't imagine I can can stop 'em - but I saw what they did to the Sherrif. They're not going to do that to me, not while I'm alive at least.

[RichVR]

Zombie chorus: Ooooh Ahhhhh!

[jeffd]

Oh and one more thing: Qman brought this up, but it is crucial that only one martyr volunteer per day. One and only one. More than that gives the vampires information I don't want them having.

Goodnight for real people. Whoever gets staked - me or Qman - tell your children about them.

[jeffd]

btw guys please don't stake caesarbear yet. he may be a vampire but I think it's doubtful they'd stick their neck out quite so blatantly. If anyone's implicated themselves as a vamp it's Tranq, but even him I'm doubtful about. I think they're just Rimboing all over the place.

[Kareem]

Wha? Implicated myself? Because I opposed your brilliant idea for each well-known innocent person to put his or her head in sequence on the chopping block?

We'll see if this whole thing was a big bluff or not when you get staked tomorrow.

[CaseyRobinson]

caesarbear is acting pretty nutty, and I think that's a pretty un-seer like move to make. This whole martyr thing might work out, as long as the seer remains alive for 3 or 4 nights.

I vote to stake Qmanol.

To bad we couldn't all arrange to do this at noon.

[Conrad]

I think the martyr strategy is fine if you have no other sources of information. But we're not playing in a vacuum. Reading the tea leaves, as it were, can change the odds.

I still think Crypt is the best choice, but I also think jeffd is a better choice than Qmanol. So... I change my vote to jeffd.

[Talisker]

btw guys please don't stake caesarbear yet. he may be a vampire but I think it's doubtful they'd stick their neck out quite so blatantly. If anyone's implicated themselves as a vamp it's Tranq, but even him I'm doubtful about. I think they're just Rimboing all over the place.
I hear what you're saying -- but, as I said to you via PM (and I'll say here openly), it's pretty clear Qmanol isn't a vamp; and, as I think the Martyr Plan is sound, and caesarbear is acting to directly thwart it, staking caesar seems like the most prudent way to go. Plus, it leaves a known villager alive for future votes.

As I write this, I realize that by voting for caesar, I'm actually going against the plan myself, so CLEARLY I cannot choose the wine in front of you! Guh, I'm going to Vezzini myself to death.

It's almost 2am here, I'm gonna try and quit churning on this and go to bed. Time to put the brain on the nightstand and get to sleep.

[caesarbear]

Oh and one more thing: Qman brought this up, but it is crucial that only one martyr volunteer per day. One and only one. More than that gives the vampires information I don't want them having.

No shit, now you figure that out? Tranq has a valid point and you're dismissing him out of hand?

I am NOT against martyrdom. I was the first person to allude to it. Qmanol picked up on it. The reason why I didn't spell it out is because I wanted to collect info and opinions from all the villagers first.

I AM against jeffd's idea of a martyr "plan". This isn't something you can plan out like in the Thing Game. And Tranq is right, the more we hint at who might be a martyr the easier it is for the vampires. If you get what the martyr idea is about then you don't need a fucking plan to spell it out for you.

Now we've wasted the whole day talking about a plan for martyrdom. Killing villagers is not a good plan. What do the vamps have to fear with that kind of a plan? Vamps run the risk of exposing themselves if they are engaged in discussion or interegated, but if they always know that a preset martyr will die, then they have nothing to fear. That's why I've been trying to steer the conversation away from any "plan" talk.

There's nothing to talk about in regards to martyrdom. You either get it, and know when it's appropriate, or you don't.

According to jeffd, it won't matter who dies first, him or Qmanol, right? I vote to stake jeffd. Sorry man, but I'm thinking your the Rimbo. You refuse to re-evaluate your plan, and then get beligerent with people who question it.

[quatoria]

Yeah. Definately sticking with my caesarbear vote.

[caesarbear]

but, as I said to you via PM (and I'll say here openly)
Whoa, what the hell dude? Why are you engaged in PMs with someone you not sure on?

Open conversation benefits the humans. Don't be fucking stupid and start PMing someone you're not sure about. You are not sure about someone, else the seer and only the seer tells you!

[Talisker]

Whoa, what the hell dude? Why are you engaged in PMs with someone you not sure on?

Open conversation benefits the humans. Don't be fucking stupid and start PMing someone you're not sure about. You are not sure about someone, else the seer and only the seer tells you!
I replied to his PM, and posted the same information here (as did jeffd with his PM'ed plea not to stake you).

OK, going to sleep now, for real :)

[Conrad]

Whoa, dude. Calm down.

[caesarbear]

Ok, then. jeffd, why are you PMing people?

[DrCrypt]

Seriously, caesar -- you practically assholed yourself into getting staked. Calm down. Needless to say, if you're not a vamp, you don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence when you're foaming at the mouth. I voted for you because it seemed like there was a pretty good chance Qmanol wasn't a vamp or a seer, but if we killed you, we removed a hypercritical loose cannon who was lashing out at practically everyone. If you've really got so much to contribute, I think everyone'd be more inclined to listen to your amazing strategic advice if you'd stop acting like a cryptic prima donna.

[fire]

The polls are closed.

http://www.centurychina.com/wiihist/behead-us-pilot.jpg

Qmanol is still tied to the post. You say farewell to him, for he has been kind to you, and has offered himself in service of his village. He requests to be blindfolded, and asks only that his death be a quick one. All eyes upon him, swiftly you thrust the sharpened wood spike deep into his chest.

He gasps, and expires.

You have slain an innocent villager.

Sleep well tonight, village. Tonight, the vampires feast.

http://death.monstrous.com/monstrous_death_2.jpg

[DrCrypt]

You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din.

[jeffd]

Argh can't sleep!

caesar: I just PMed andrew asking him not to stake you. Nothing nefarious, just trying to ensure things work out the way I want them to.

Tranq: Your objections are head scratchingly bizarre to me, to the point that I really do suspect you're a vampire.

Killing an innocent isn't a bad thing. It is, in fact, the second best outcome to a staking.

Here are the four outcomes we can possibly have for a staking, in order from best to worst:
- we kill a vampire
- we kill an innocent who has not yet been made part of the circle of trust
- we kill an innocent who is part of the circle of trust
- we kill the seer

While the martyrdom strategy guarantees we do not get #1 - that's fine. The vampires don't win until they get to day 6, at which point they outnumber the "innocent" villagers. Frankly we've got innocents to spare. So long as the seer is operative the odds are very good that by day 4 he'll have a) close to a majority voting bloc and/or b) the identity of at least one vampire.

What's more important is that the martyrdom strategy guarantees that we don't have #3 or #4 occur. #4 is the worst possible outcome. The vampires always have a minimum odds of 1/(# remaining players - 2) of fanging the seer. There's just no way around that - they can always get lucky.

What the martyrdom strategy guarantees is that those odds never improve. The Vampires are reduced to shooting in the dark. Sure martyrdom tells them who the seer isn't but that knowledge is mostly useless, since the martyr is dead knowing they weren't the seer doesn't help at all!

Tranq your objection seems to be "If we kill the martyr we help the vampires because they know the martyr isn't the seer." which is just zany. I'm at a loss to comprehend it; either you're a Vampire who's percieved the strength of my strategy and you're desperately trying to undermine it or you're just Tranqing all over us again.

If I don't get fanged tonight, you need to stake me tomorrow. I suggest you guys actually hold off on martyr volunteers after that and follow up by staking Caesarbear and Tranq. It's possible one of them is the seer, in which case they're either a) playing stupidly and we're hosed or b) playing a much deeper game than I realize, in which case I've got little doubt they can worm their way out of being staked. One of them might also be a Vampire, in which case bonus points.

Seer you should keep having your dreams. Build your circle of trust, let them know when you dream of a vamp. That way if you inadvertently get fanged you can passs on the ID of at least one vamp to the surviving townfolks.

Good luck!

[Qmanol]

Braaaaaaiiiiiiiins....

[Kareem]

Tranq your objection seems to be "If we kill the martyr we help the vampires because they know the martyr isn't the seer." which is just zany. I'm at a loss to comprehend it; either you're a Vampire who's percieved the strength of my strategy and you're desperately trying to undermine it or you're just Tranqing all over us again.

No, what I'm saying is that if we pre-destine someone for death every day we narrow the playing field for ourselves. Suppose I offer myself to be staked, that means that one of the other villagers (the vamps know who the villagers are) is the seer. If I end up getting staked because I offered myself, the vampires KNOW that the seer is still alive and they will seek him out. If I am killed by village consensus, the vampires have no idea if the seer is dead or alive, which makes for a more cloudy judgment for them with regards to who they want to prey on.

[Hanzii]

Brains?!?

[Rob Beschizza]

No, what I'm saying is that if we pre-destine someone for death every day we narrow the playing field for ourselves. Suppose I offer myself to be staked, that means that one of the other villagers (the vamps know who the villagers are) is the seer. If I end up getting staked because I offered myself, the vampires KNOW that the seer is still alive and they will seek him out. If I am killed by village consensus, the vampires have no idea if the seer is dead or alive, which makes for a more cloudy judgment for them with regards to who they want to prey on.

Gotcha. The sacrifice strategy is, basically, good for a turn or two. It's a gambit to ensure the seer has a good chance of improving his position. You don't keep giving away pawn after pawn in chess, and I imagine that the same is true here.

[Rasputin]

I'd be surprised if we woke up and found caesar dead. He's either a vamp or just plain disruptive, either of which work out for the undead.

Jeff's plan only works the first few nights, I'd say three max. After that we're whittling down the odds of them not eating the seer or the circle too far.

Again, it is critical that we stake Jeff today (or caesar or tranq, because they're suspicious and that keeps in the spirit of the game more), but even more critical that no one else volunteers today as that gives away too much info.

Here's to hoping I'm not the one who got gacked.

[fire]

http://worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/camerica/aaposter/hondurasfive.jpg

You gather in the village center as usual this morning. It was a dry night, and the dust from the earth floor sticks to your feet as you walk.

Someone is missing. You run the roll call and find that quatoria never awoke from his sleep. In his hut you find him in bed, his body cold and bloodless. One set of fangs graces each wrist.

You bury him in your new graveyard, next to Qmanol.

There are vampires among you. Who will you stake today?

[Rasputin]

Quatoria came running up to my house last night, screaming for help. I didn't open the door because I thought it might be a vampire trap. I just didn't believe him.

WHY DIDN'T I BELIEVE HIM?!?

[jeffd]

Tranq: The thing is it doesn't matter if the Vampires know the seer is alive. So long as they have no additional information to base their pick off of their chances of killing the the seer never rise above 1/(#surviving players-2).

Put another way - we can never make their odds of picking the seer worse than that.

[Kareem]

I vote to stake jeffd for so honorably sacrificing himself.

[Kareem]

Forgot to post my reasons:

1) It's in following with the sacrifice strategy he wants us to follow so much.
2) He offered himself as a sacrifice target.
3) Since he's still alive despite the fact that he's almost certainly human as per his offer of his sacrifice - so he's either a vampire or the vampires wanted us to spend another staking on a known human, but that is on par with jeff's strategy though which he believes is the best for the villagers.

[jeffd]

Yep, stake me! I vote to stake jeffd.

Afterward I'd suggest that you guys stake Tranq.

[Kareem]

If you say so. I'm only going through with what you insisted on doing earlier.

[Conrad]

So long as they have no additional information to base their pick off of their chances of killing the the seer never rise above 1/(#surviving players-2).
I hate to keep harping on this, but there actually is additional information. If I can identify low-probability seer candidates, so can the vamps, which improves their odds of hitting a seer considerably. Kinda makes me wish I hadn't done so publicly, in hindsight.

That said, the martyr train has left the station, and I'm willing to ride it for a stop or two. I vote to stake jeffd.

[CaseyRobinson]

I vote to stake jeffd, because he's so gung-ho for the martyr plan. I think it's a pretty good plan, from a math standpoint, but if the vamps get lucky then we won't have anything to go on later in the game.

[Kareem]

I vote to stake jeffd, because he's so gung-ho for the martyr plan. I think it's a pretty good plan, from a math standpoint, but if the vamps get lucky then we won't have anything to go on later in the game.

Exactly, that's my biggest gripe with it. Aside from us narrowing the playing field a bit for ourselves, if they get lucky with picking out the seer we're doomed.

[Rasputin]

I'd more suggest that we stake caesar than Jeff. Even though staking Jeff is the next step in his strategy, I'm relatively sure he's pure human, and caesar is:

a) being a shrill, hypersensitive critic who brings nothing to the table
b) annoying me
c) building his fence over the property line on my side of the line, even though I showed him the plot map from city hall and everything.

[Kareem]

Well, since we're planning on ending the whole martyr thing after jeff's staking (since several have expressed the desire to move past that after 2 or 3 villagers), we could see the grudges against caesarbear acted out in the next round I suppose, but I don't think I've made my mind up about caesar yet, because I happen to agree that the martyr thing is a rather pointless idea.

[DrCrypt]

I have to admit, I'm more inclined to stake caesar myself. If he's human, he's a total loose cannon, and the vampires have already gotta know that he's disruptive and leaving him alive benefits them.

Providing he's not the seer playing out some wily plot, the likes of which just seems to frankly intricate to be believable: if he's neither a vampire nor the seer, I don't see how he's anything but a confusion-causing liability to the rest of us.

[Rasputin]

However, as Jeff is probably not a seer or vamp given his wholeheartedness to be staked as well as the logical soundness of his plan, the vamps can comfortably leave him alive knowing that the greater threat to them is someone else.

Therefore staking another person runs a risk of only helping the vampires, rather than leaving them in the proverbial dark.

He is, however, one of the thinky ones around here which may make him a target.

It's a quandary.

[Kareem]

Well there are 2 possibilities:

1) Jeff is bluffing and taking it to the extreme - in which case it might be a good idea to stake him.

2) He really is a human - in which case it would suck to stake him, but he was the one who championed the whole martyr idea and to follow it for at least a couple rounds, so ultimately staking him would not be against this grand plan.

[Talisker]

We can be very, very certain that jeffd is a normal villager at this point.

caesarbear did offer himself up as martyr #3 in one of his posts; as such, he can't really bitch if we stake him. Alternatively, his late volunteering to take the stake could be a vampire gambit to deflect attention from himself ("I can't be vampire, I offered to stake myself!"), which would make staking him an even better idea.

If he's actually the seer, yikes.

[Rasputin]

If caesar is actually the seer, couldn't we say that we're actually better off without him? :)

[DrCrypt]

Christ, if caesar's the seer, we're fucking screwed.

Actually, quick question. Has a seer ever been staked? I mean, if quatoria was the seer, would we all know about that there was no seer in the game? I tried to find record it in a couple of the past threads, but they're so fucking long.

[Kareem]

Vamp game 1 - RichVR was killed by vamps.
Vamp game 2 - dannimal was killed by vamps.
Vamp game 3 - both seers were not staked.
Vamp game 4 - thing game, no seers.
Vamp game 5 - the first rule is, you are not allowed to talk about vamp game 5.
Vamp game 6 - Raife was killed by vamps.

[Talisker]

There's no official notification that you've staked the "real" seer. (IE, Qmanol could've been the seer, if he had a massive anti-villager streak).

[jeffd]

Casey/Tranq: If they get lucky with picking out the seer we're doomed no matter what. We can't eliminate the odds of them staking a seer, we can just minimize them - which is what my plan does. The best way to win is to get the seer alive and intact to days 4 and 5. At that point he'll have enough allies to be able to move more overtly. Right now he's vulnerable, so our priority must be on protecting him.

[jeffd]

There is also no official notification when you stake the communist infiltrator! :D

There's no official notification that you've staked the "real" seer. (IE, Qmanol could've been the seer, if he had a massive anti-villager streak).

[jeffd]

By the way, I want to quote quatoria - who lends his weight behind my strategizing.

I thought I should say: when I was a seer in game 3, one of the things we really, really appreciated was having villagers who were willing to eat a stake or bite to protect us. It really is one of the single most useful things any villager can do for the village. (Assuming the seer isn't a retard, that is.) Right now, more than anything else, our seer needs time to dream, time to confirm humans, and time to gather people they can trust. It's our job to give them that time.

[Rasputin]

Wow, slow day. Where is everybody?

[Rob Beschizza]

Wow, slow day. Where is everybody?

Busy day at work here!

I'm beginning to question staking jeffd. The plan is sound, if gamey and a bit dull. And since we've started it, we should probably see through the two-day, two sacrifice gambit that seemed to cohere out of yesterday's scheming, and hope that the seer is around and able to take advantage of the results tomorrow.

On the other hand, caesarbear is too terrifying by far. Like the psycho Irishman in Braveheart, even if he's O.K., he's just too scary to be in the same pub with after the third Guinness.

[Rasputin]

All right, in deference to his wishes and grand plan, I vote to stake jeffd. We'll bravely carry on in your name.

And caesar and tranq? In true japanese movie style, after I'm done killing my friend, you're next. *lightning crashes*

[Conrad]

Wow, slow day. Where is everybody?
Bunch of us went over to Qmanol's hut and raided his liquor stash. We actually went to quat's place first, but his selection was shit (told ya so, Crypt). Ever since the accident, he's been a bit of a lightweight. Anyway, good times were had by all, at least until Xeras wigged and tried to stake soondifferent, with scissors mind you, because of that ketchup stain on his shirt. You know the shirt I'm talking about, that sky-blue dishrag-looking thing that he fucking wears everywhere.

Special thanks to Casey for putting together the excellent hummus on short notice. Oh and Tranq, I somehow ended up with your eyepatch in my pocket, stop by if you want it back.

[Talisker]

Given a) the lack of any other discussion, and b) that it's the carryover from yesterday's plan, I'll vote to stake jeffd as well.

[Conrad]

Y'know, I'm going back to the same logic I went with last night. Both caesarbear and jeffd volunteered, and neither is likely to be a seer. caesarbear seems the less trustworthy of the 2, and should therefore get the stake. Plus, I caught him double dipping at Q's place, and seriously, fuck that.

I change my vote to caesarbear.

[soondifferent]

I vote jeffd. There isn't much else to go by at this point.

[caesarbear]

We just need one more day. I vote and thank jeffd.

[jeffd]

Looks like I'm on my way out. Was nice knowing you folks.

I suggest you follow this up by staking Tranq and caesar. I'm less suspicious of caesar than I was, but he deserves a stake - if for no other reason than what his godawful landscaping did to property values on our block.

Of course if the seer makes hisself known you should do what he says. But keep him safe, at all costs.

[DrCrypt]

I vote to stake caesarbear

[fire]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/50/Red_evening_sun_during_sun_set.jpg/180px-Red_evening_sun_during_sun_set.jpg
Evening approaches.

You have an hour to cast your final ballots.

[Rob Beschizza]

You have an hour to cast your final ballots.

Uh oh. I guess I'll vote to stake jeffD.

[Kareem]

RIP jeff, no hard feelings, you offered yourself, we carried it through.

[Rob Beschizza]

Next time there's a qt3 get-together, you should all order and eat steak!

[fire]

Tofu steak?

[fire]

At nightfall, you gather in the town center. There are ten of you, and jeffd; tonight, another villager is staked for the benefit of society. Everyone has cast their ballot... everyone except Xeras. He's off having a cigarette.

http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/d/d5/300px-AntonDostler.jpg

jeffd offers to tie himself to a post in the ground; he offers to drive the stake through his own heart. But you know this is impossible. You tie him to the post like you did with the villager before him. The area below the post is dark with the blood of the previous night.

Quickly, you drive the stake through his heart. Silently, he hails you, and dies.

You have staked an innocent villager.

http://scaryface.contains2.com/bloodpour.jpg

You try to wash his blood from your hands, but it sticks.

You bury jeffd next to Qmanol and quatoria.

Who will you bury in the morning?

[fire]

http://www.music.columbia.edu/~chris/pics/scary.face.jpeg

Good morning, village.

Nine of you gather in the town center and call roll. It is not long before you realize rasputin is missing. You find his body in his hut, huddled in a corner, eyes wide open, neck torn to shreds. Blood is on the walls and on his bed; you can see he resisted his fate.

You bury him quietly next to the others.

Two vampires walk among you. Who will you stake today?

[Rasputin]

A cry echoes out in the night.

"Dicks! You guys are dicks! ARRRRRRRGGGGhhhhhhhhhhh!"

[Kareem]

Ok we need to be more proactive about who to kill now.

If I was a vampire, seeing the self-destructive (IMO) strategy of villager staking, I'd try to lay back and watch the villagers kill one another. Which is why I'm more inclined to stake one of the quieter guys around here. Soondifferent and Xeras have said very little so far throughout the game, and both have only voted for Qmanol and jeffd unwaveringly, I'm thinking so as not to raise any kind of suspicion.

I'm very much inclined to vote for one of them in the next round.

[Rob Beschizza]

Ok we need to be more proactive about who to kill now.

If I was a vampire, seeing the self-destructive (IMO) strategy of villager staking, I'd try to lay back and watch the villagers kill one another. Which is why I'm more inclined to stake one of the quieter guys around here. Soondifferent and Xeras have said very little so far throughout the game, and both have only voted for Qmanol and jeffd unwaveringly, I'm thinking so as not to raise any kind of suspicion.

I'm very much inclined to vote for one of them in the next round.

Isn't the unwavering thing because of the sacrifice strategy? Just about everyone's agreed with it, or at least enough to win two votes. Post count, I think, is a pretty poor indicator of humanity.

BTW, I think we're done with sacrifices now. Time to go for the vamps, assuming anyone with a clue is still alive.

[Kareem]

Isn't the unwavering thing because of the sacrifice strategy? Just about everyone's agreed with it, or at least enough to win two votes. Post count, I think, is a pretty poor indicator of humanity.

Sure, but they haven't even debated the merits of whether to go ahead with a self-sacrifice strategy or not. Just standard jumping on the bandwagon of "ok lets stake the dude to get things moving!" and then disappearing for a long time.

[DrCrypt]

No more volunteer stakings. At this point, we have to get people talking again. A volunteer is guaranteed to kill one of our humans. If anyone volunteers at this point, they should be looked upon with extreme suspicion. Yes, this means forgiving caesarbear his volunteering.

I am less leaning towards staking quiet guys, since conventional wisdom suggests that vamps would lay low and, after seven games, the strategy's probably evolved at this point. I think everyone at this point needs to pipe up and give their suspicions. This gives us information about each other. Silence only benefits the vamps at this point... if the seer still hasn't built up a circle of trust, we're fucked.

Of the verbal guys, I'm suspicious of caesarbear and Tranq. Tranq I'm suspicious of because of his history griefing a previous vampire game: if he's a human, you can't trust him (god help us if he's the seer); if a vampire, more so. Caesarbear because he was the convenient third volunteer; he was hypercritical and disruptive on the first day, criticising everyone's strategy, then quieted way the heck down when he almost got staked. That might also make him the seer, though. I'm inclined not to stake him for the risk of the latter.

[CaseyRobinson]

So far, I've been terrible at picking vampires based on post content. So I'm a little reluctant to run around tossing suspicion.

Regarding caesarbear's voulentering, I think doing that rules out the possibility of seerhood. It's too big of a risk -- what if we went through with plan martyr, and then his turn came up? Anything he does to get out of it is going to seem more suspicious, and might get him staked. If he came out and publicly claimed seerdom it might save him from the stake one day, but he would probably get killed that night. It just doesn't seem like a move that a seer with more then 6 functioning brain cells would make.

[Kareem]

I'm sticking with my suspicion of soondifferent and xeras for all the reasons outlined earlier.

And my dice say I vote for xeras.

[Kareem]

As for caesarbear I'm inclined not to take his offering to be staked to heart (no pun intended) because it was so half-hearted, but I don't think he's a vampire because a vampire wouldn't actively seek to piss everyone off and get on their bad side.

[DrCrypt]

It looked to me, Tranq, like it was an effort to disrupt us. He was so absolutely critical of any voiced strategy while adding absolutely nothing of his own. Yes, that might make him a dumb vamp, but you'd think that a human would at least try to add something.

[Talisker]

I have no idea, no real theories at the moment, and am about to head out for the evening. But, I'll be back before StakeTime, will weigh in (and vote) then.

At this point, I'd lean towards caesarbear, 'cause he was a wang the first day (obviously, that's not exactly a sound rationale, which is why I'm not posting a formal vote).

[Conrad]

Busy day, but my quick thoughts:

Tranq's hardline anti-martyr stance makes me suspicious. caesarbear is still high on my list. I also agree with the concern re the uber-quiet guys.

Leaning Tranq, but we'll see what develops.

[caesarbear]

Nothing stops us from getting to know people at all. On day two, we can start the mock psychology, and we'll have all of day one to chew over.
Oh, so now you want to start the mock psychology?

Why is everyone abandoning the plan they endorsed before? What do you think jeffd would say if he were alive?

[Rob Beschizza]

I'm in a awaiting-developments mood as well. We're three turns in and I don't think I know much more than I did two days ago. I'm just sat here compulsively visiting qt3 every half hour waiting for something to happen! And the storm of private dealings and schemings that seemed to lurk behind previous games hasn't included me yet :(

My hunch is that the seer is dead and the only people talking to each other are vampires, and that we've played such a formal strategy no-one's actually learned anything.

Therefore it is time for some good old-fashioned paranoia. Ceasarbear will get my vote if it stays quiet in here, because of the freakshow on day 1 an the odd calm after it. That might be a poor indicator of vamphood, but on reflection it seems really unlikly that the seer would even joke about being a sacrifice.

[Rob Beschizza]

Oh, so now you want to start the mock psychology?

Why is everyone abandoning the plan they endorsed before? What do you think jeffd would say if he were alive?

I think jeffD would accept that the sacrifice plan is a gambit, with diminishing statistical returns, and shouldn't be continued ad vampiam until all the villagers kill themselves. Once is a gambit, twice is a risk, three is Oh No More Lemmings.

[Conrad]

What do you think jeffd would say if he were alive?

I'm pretty sure he would go over the merits of the martyr plan once again. He would be sure to point out how it's the best plan ever.

[caesarbear]

jeffD's strategy is the best thing going.
We're three turns in and I don't think I know much more than I did two days ago.
That's the plan you signed up for. Now you want to switch?

[Rob Beschizza]

That's the plan you signed up for. Now you want to switch?

As I said in my last post, the plan was Qmanol, then jeffD, then see what heppens. It was never to "keep sacrificing villagers every turn." The point is to keep the seer alive long enough to form a circle of trust.

But you knew all this.

I vote for caesarbear, because he's at it again.

[Conrad]

Are you still volunteering, caesar?

[Xeras]

Well, I'm sorry that I missed yesterday everyone, I had kind of a small family emergency. I didn't have a chance to look at everything last night at all. caesarbear, if you disliked the plan at first like it seemed you did, what point are you trying to make by confronting people who are changing their mind now?

[Talisker]

OK, just about to head out, but I'm gonna vote for caesarbear on my way out the door.

[Xeras]

Whoops, I meant to say I didn't get a chance to look at anything last night at all.

[caesarbear]

As I said in my last post, the plan was Qmanol, then jeffD, then see what heppens. It was never to "keep sacrificing villagers every turn." The point is to keep the seer alive long enough to form a circle of trust.

But you knew all this.

I vote for caesarbear, because he's at it again.

post 148
My plan pretty explicitly covers the entire game.

excerpt from post 152

- Someone's gonna get staked every day no matter what. My strategy ensures that a) the person getting staked is neither the seer, nor someone the seer trusts and b) the vampires cannot use staking to get a "free" targeted kill.

[jeffd]

What do you think jeffd would say if he were alive?

Guys? Why's it so dark in here? Who put me in this box? What the hell is this goddamn hole in my chest? Guys? GUYS!?!

[Rob Beschizza]

Caesarbear, your selective quoting from jeffD is pretty suspicious to me given how explicit he was on the plan not lasting forever. Bolding is mine:


"... stake me tomorrow. I suggest you guys actually hold off on martyr volunteers after that and follow up by staking Caesarbear and Tranq."

Since you went to the trouble of going back through his posts, it's a little odd you missed that one.

But there's more: Here's jeffD in 131.

"On Days 3 and 4 the circle will be much more powerful, capable of operating more openly. Today and tomorrow it is of the utmost importance that we protect the seer and his confidante. "

And jeffd on post #98.

"Our priority right now cannot be killing vampires - we simply don't have enough evidence to go off of; we probably won't for at least another two days. Our priority must be protecting the seer and his trusted circle while they do their work."

But you knew about that too, I'm sure.

The sacrifice strategy has already played out as far as it can reasonably go: I don't think we could expect to find another reliable sacrifice today. If the seer's still going, it's about time they started acting.

[Rob Beschizza]

Guys? Why's it so dark in here? Who put me in this box? What the hell is this goddamn hole in my chest? Guys? GUYS!?!

Shush and eat your brains or there'll be no dessert for you. And practice that moaning, your form has been terrible!

[caesarbear]

The sacrifice strategy has already played out as far as it can reasonably go: I don't think we could expect to find another reliable sacrifice today. If the seer's still going, it's about time they started acting.
Why should the seer act now? Because you think they should?

Here's more from your prophet that you're now throwing under the wagon:

The best way to win is to get the seer alive and intact to days 4 and 5. At that point he'll have enough allies to be able to move more overtly. Right now he's vulnerable, so our priority must be on protecting him.

[Rob Beschizza]

Why should the seer act now? Because you think they should?

Here's more from your prophet that you're now throwing under the wagon:

"Throwing under the wagon?" Good lord! If you are a vamp, I think you're a pretty daring one :)

Putting aside jeffd's imperative to stop the plan today and stake you, fact is he wasn't consistent on exactly when the end date should be. But, why this focus on jeffD? It wasn't just his plan anyway -- I was pretty supportive of it early on as well, though he did work out the inkstained statistical spreadsheetery for it.

It's not like there's some kind of religious imperative to keep going. It comes down to this: if someone offered to sacrifice themselves today, would we still be able to believe them? Who would it benefit more at this state of the game?

I can still be convinced either way. I gotta say, you being back in the groove actually makes me less inclined to suspect you. The not knowing is why I hope the seer and co are ready to get their war on.

[caesarbear]

fact is he wasn't consistent on exactly when the end date should be.

from that same post 98 you quoted:
This must continue until the seer reveals himself and reveals to the surviving villagers who the vampires are.

But, why this focus on jeffD? It wasn't just his plan anyway -- I was pretty supportive of it early on as well
You've been non-commital the whole time. You were an early supporter of the random roll. Then you announced that you need to think in post 98; thanks for letting us know. Most everyone of your posts is made from a remote point of view, as if you're just watching the game. You keep worrying about whether things are fair for the vampires of all things.

It comes down to this: if someone offered to sacrifice themselves today, would we still be able to believe them? Who would it benefit more at this state of the game?
What do you mean?