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Shmtur
09-12-2006, 02:52 AM
Week 2

Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Shmtur
09-12-2006, 03:05 AM
Buffalo at Miami - Against a lesser team, I think they win.
Carolina at Minnesota - I still think Carolina's better, but the home team gets the edge.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay - Koren Robinson will not save the Packers.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Atlanta gets overconfident, Tampa Bay doesn't lay an egg twice in a row.
Arizona at Seattle - I don't like the Branch trade. They gave up too much. But it does make them a better team. Super bowl or bust, it seems.
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver - Larry Johnson doesn't look as good without his line, and Shanahan gets Jake Plummer in gear.
New England at N.Y. Jets - I'm not actually certain here. I didn't get to watch their game against Buffalo, but how good is New England's offense?
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville - I'm not sure about Jacksonville yet.


My (too) early pick for the bottom five teams in the league at the end of the year, in no particular order - Green Bay, Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Tennessee. Kansas City this year kind of reminds me of Green Bay last year. Major offensive player injured early, lost guys on the o-line. Except GB lost Javon Walker, KC lost their quarterback.

I don't want to pick a top five yet. I want to see another game.

balut
09-12-2006, 04:00 AM
Week 2

Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota - wasn't that impressed with Minnesota, and Carolina's going to want to bounce back hard
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle - Shaun Alexander rushes for about a hojillion yards this game
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets - my upset pick of the week; Pennington looked real solid in Week 1, and I think he'll keep it up until his season-ending catastrophic injury by Week 7
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Charlatan
09-12-2006, 04:11 AM
Redskins failed me!

Week 2

Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Matt Perkins
09-12-2006, 06:16 AM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Jim Preston
09-12-2006, 06:19 AM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Nick Walter
09-12-2006, 06:20 AM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

RichVR
09-12-2006, 06:45 AM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

BaconTastesGood
09-12-2006, 06:55 AM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Nick Walter
09-12-2006, 07:16 AM
Oho, we have our first pick against the hawks!

After last week's 9 point showing I expected more folks to pick against them, but well, it's just hard to pick Arizona.

Ryan A
09-12-2006, 09:50 AM
Buffalo at Miami... Miami isn't bad enough to lose at home to Buffalo.
Carolina at Minnesota... Hutch is, in fact, the Real Deal and Johnson is good enough to *not* lose it at home.
Cleveland at Cincinnati... is the Pope Catholic?
Detroit at Chicago... Roy Williams and his "guarantee" notwithstanding, Da Bears will win this one at home easily.
Houston at Indianapolis[... Houston is going to have to start aiming for next year's number one pick, hopefully they won't screw that one up too.
New Orleans at Green Bay... Reggie Bush. 'Nuff said.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia... NY will win in a squeaker.
Oakland at Baltimore... Is Al Davis retarded?
Tampa Bay at Atlanta... LOL Tampa Bay. I hate Gruden.
Arizona at Seattle... Sorry folks, nobody but the Seahawks get to win in Seattle this year.
St. Louis at San Francisco... The Rams aren't as good as an underachieving Broncos squad made them look in week 1. SF bu a nose.
Kansas City at Denver... Ow my head.
New England at N.Y. Jets... Old Gray Mare she ain't what she used to be...
Tennessee at San Diego... Phillip who? LT for MVP.
Washington at Dallas... Bledsoe won't be the goat two weeks in a row.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville... Batch will throw multiple interceptions in a close loss to the Jags.

Patrick
09-12-2006, 09:50 AM
Week 2

Buffalo at Miami -They bounce back
Carolina at Minnesota -Same
Cleveland at Cincinnati -Better team
Detroit at Chicago -I think Detroit is going to be good
Houston at Indianapolis -Duh!!!
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore -Its going to be along year, but I can't bet against them.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle -Seattle is vulnurable
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver -Green out makes this one easy
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville -Upset?

Stroker Ace
09-12-2006, 09:55 AM
I hope Demeco Ryans continues to outperform Mario Williams at least :P

jeffd
09-12-2006, 11:01 AM
I'm going with the TMQ tried and true "Home Team Wins" pick. We'll see how I do.

Rimbo
09-12-2006, 02:18 PM
You didn't see it, because I didn't post it on QT3, but I got 13 of last week's picks right.

This week's picks:

Miami
Carolina
Cincinnati
Chicago
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Seattle
St. Louis
Denver
New England
San Diego
Dallas
Pittsburgh

Robert Sharp
09-12-2006, 03:18 PM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Bill Dungsroman
09-12-2006, 06:29 PM
Week 2

Buffalo at Miami. It's alternating good game/bad game for dudes like Culpepper and Losman, so there you go. Gitcher roll on, Pimp!
Carolina at Minnesota.
Cleveland at Cincinnati. Clobberin' time.
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis. WAIT WAIT DERR HOUSTON. Not.
New Orleans at Green Bay. Come on Brett, hang in there until the Niners play you. And beat you.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia. Killer game.
Oakland at Baltimore.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle. Yeah, that's right.
St. Louis at San Francisco BEW HEW SAWB SNIPH
Kansas City at Denver. :( Poor Trent. Poor Jake. Poor Damon Huard. Damon Huard?
New England at N.Y. Jets. Ooh.
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas. Ho man, this game is going to live up to tradition.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville.

Ryan A
09-12-2006, 08:05 PM
I want to pick like Bill:

"Team A will win. Unless it's Team B, in which case I pick Team B."

BaconTastesGood
09-12-2006, 08:28 PM
I love the football media. McNair is apparently a "caretaker QB" now, and Jake Plummer is at his best "When not asked to win the game".

caesarbear
09-12-2006, 10:03 PM
Buffalo at Miami
Carolina at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Detroit at Chicago
Houston at Indianapolis - huwha?
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Shmtur
09-13-2006, 02:21 AM
Houston at Indianapolis - huwha?

At least you admit it.

Squirrel Killer
09-14-2006, 01:16 PM
Buffalo @ Miami
Carolina @ Minnesota
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Detroit @ Chicago
Houston @ Indianapolis
New Orleans @ Green Bay
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
Oakland @ Baltimore
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Arizona @ Seattle
St. Louis @ San Francisco
Kansas City @ Denver
New England @ NY Jets
Tennessee @ San Diego
Washington @ Dallas
Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville

Shmtur
09-17-2006, 01:45 PM
Miami is really looking awful at this point. It's a bad sign when fans are chanting to have Joey Harrington put in.

Erik J.
09-17-2006, 02:11 PM
Kurt Warner is looking awful right now, too, and that only matters because he's my fantasy QB. Curses!

Erik J.

Ryan A
09-17-2006, 10:02 PM
When do I get to start gloating how awesome I was to pick SF to win?

caesarbear
09-17-2006, 10:37 PM
Right before you start kicking yourself for wasting a guess on the Jets, who haven't beaten the Pats at NJ since the stone age.

But otherwise, nice job, I think you may win this week. Bacon started off perfectly, but then quickly fell behind.

Rimbo
09-17-2006, 11:05 PM
Atlanta is running the zone read play. They gained 96 yards in 10 plays with it; only one of those plays went for fewer than 10 yards.

Paging Ron Jaworski... Paging Ron Jaworski... your shit sandwich is waiting for you...

Meanwhile, despite only a few series in garbage time, Vince Young ends up being both Tennessee's best QB and RB in the stats.

Shmtur
09-18-2006, 09:54 AM
These are real quick counts since it's just not over yet, so I might be off by one or two on a couple of these. I'm going to go over it later and double check, but for now, pre-MNF, these are the counts.

Shmtur 10-5
balut 10-5
Charlatan 10-5
Matt Perkins 11-4
Jim Preston 11-4
Nick Walter 9-6
RichVR 11-4
BaconTastesGood 11-4
Ryan A 13-2
Patrick 8-7
Rimbo 10-5
Robert Sharp 11-4
BillDungsroman 10-5
ceasarbear 12-3
SquirrelKiller 12-3
jeffd (And his tried and true home team wins strategy!) 11-4

If I screwed up (and I'll be going over it to check that after tonight's game) I'll fix it in the next post that has final counts.


There were definitely quite a few games this week that just about everyone got right. I'm looking forward to some of the tough matches coming up later in the season, for sure.

Rimbo
09-18-2006, 09:59 AM
tampa bay is clearly not as good as i thought they were

i'm refusing to pick them until they demonstrate (a) a running game and (b) simms can avoid throwing INT's.

dannimal
09-18-2006, 10:09 AM
When do I get to start gloating how awesome I was to pick SF to win?

Right before I do. But like you, I picked the Jets so I may just keep my mouth shut.

12-3 with the Jags left to beat the champs at home.

Matt Perkins
09-18-2006, 10:25 AM
111-4. I rock!

Shmtur
09-18-2006, 10:28 AM
111-4. I rock!

Oops. Thanks. Fixed now. I did all of that quickly, there had to be at least one mistake.

Squirrel Killer
09-18-2006, 10:28 AM
Jock High @ Short Bus Alternative

Nick Walter
09-18-2006, 10:49 AM
Man, I'm starting to get pissed at New England. Twice now I've picked against them and twice now they've squeaked out a win.

Hawkeye Fierce
09-18-2006, 10:50 AM
Man, I'm starting to get pissed at New England. Twice now I've picked against them and twice now they've squeaked out a win.

Imagine how they'll look when they actually show up for both halves.

Patrick
09-18-2006, 10:55 AM
Week 2

Buffalo at Miami -They bounce back
Carolina at Minnesota -Same
Cleveland at Cincinnati -Better team
Detroit at Chicago -I think Detroit is going to be good
Houston at Indianapolis -Duh!!!
New Orleans at Green Bay
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
Oakland at Baltimore -Its going to be along year, but I can't bet against them.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle -Seattle is vulnurable
St. Louis at San Francisco
Kansas City at Denver -Green out makes this one easy
New England at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at San Diego
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville -Upset?


8-7 God I suck!

Nick Walter
09-18-2006, 10:58 AM
Imagine how they'll look when they actually show up for both halves.

I think the Pats are a bit overrated myself, so I am expecting them to drop an early season game or two to a scrappy underdog. I figured for sure going in that Buffalo and the Jets both fit my scrappy underdog profile, but so far no luck. I wonder if after two weeks of struggles the Broncos might just qualify for scrappy underdog status?

Matt Perkins
09-18-2006, 12:35 PM
I think the Pats are a bit overrated myself, so I am expecting them to drop an early season game or two to a scrappy underdog. I figured for sure going in that Buffalo and the Jets both fit my scrappy underdog profile, but so far no luck. I wonder if after two weeks of struggles the Broncos might just qualify for scrappy underdog status?
I'd say no. The Broncos were supposed to be a powerhouse this year, but they are just falling down...though not quite Bucs or Dolphins bad.

caesarbear
09-18-2006, 01:00 PM
8-7 God I suck!
Time to get out the coin?

Nick Walter
09-18-2006, 01:03 PM
I'd say no. The Broncos were supposed to be a powerhouse this year, but they are just falling down...though not quite Bucs or Dolphins bad.

That tears it, I'm picking the Broncos over the Pats next week. As a matter of fact, that's my new personal system, pick the Patriot's opponent until the Patsies lose. Then I'll think of a new system.

Matt Perkins
09-18-2006, 01:52 PM
Then I'll see you in the losers circle! :P

Nick Walter
09-18-2006, 02:02 PM
Yeah, probably, My first place (7-way tie) showing last week was a fluke. I don't get to watch more than 1 or 2 games per week so even towards the second half of the season I'll be picking games involving teams I haven't seen play this year, based solely on the media buzz around them.

Matt Perkins
09-18-2006, 02:18 PM
I'm a total NFL addict and I don't know how well I'll do. If picking games was purely a system of having watched the games, the "analysts" wouldn't keep sucking at it. :P

Ryan A
09-18-2006, 03:56 PM
I'm a total NFL addict and I predicted six months ago on my blog that I would win this competition.

dannimal
09-18-2006, 06:37 PM
Coming from years of spread-based pools, I find this oddly "difficult". Obviously, any favorite I pick to cover gets picked. It's the dogs that get me. Did I pick them just to cover (KC) or win outright (Jets. Ew.).

Shmtur
09-18-2006, 06:38 PM
It's trying to pick the upsets that gets you in this type.

dannimal
09-18-2006, 07:04 PM
Yeah. I wasn't trying to pick upsets (like, Green Bay would have been). I was looking for games where the line seemed to overvalue week 1 (Giants over Philly, SF over StL). I did pick an ambitious 6 dogs, and if Jax wins they'll have won 4 straight up (blew the Jets and the 'Skins. I should know better than to take the road team in that rivalry).

caesarbear
09-18-2006, 07:31 PM
It's trying to pick the upsets that gets you in this type.
It's all about the upsets. I tend to go crazy, but I almost had a point on everyone with KC over Denver. Thinking the Colts would slip-up was pretty stupid though.

BaconTastesGood
09-18-2006, 08:14 PM
Two common refrains from last week's games that are irritating the crap out of me:

1. Eli Manning's "coming of age". He has a game like this every year it seems, and it basically consists of "Eli Manning fucking up, then having the rest of the team bail his shit out in the end". At some point I wish people would recognize that "4th quarter comeback QBs" very often are that way because they put their teams in bad positions.

2. Reggie Bush is God. Jesus fucking Shit -- Mike Ditka was showing some clip of Bush dancing all around on a PR or something, and was going on and on about "those incredible moves". Bush got FIVE YARDS on the play. FIVE. And Ditka was hailing him as the next Sayers.

It's like analysts are so invested in their love for Bush they're not realizing he's simply a good double threat. He's maybe a slightly better version of Brian Westbrook. Bush had jack for rushing last weekend but decent receiving yards, and I've heard some analysts saying he's clearly better than LDT, Westbrook, Tiki Barber, etc.

Seriously, they're all about how he's an insanely awesome receiver but all of his receptions that I saw were flares and swing passes and dump offs. It was like when everyone was hailing LDT as the next Faulk because had like 100+ receptions in one season but with some paltry average -- because Brees had no one else to throw to . Not because LDT is this awesome receiver in an RB's body.

I will grant Bush this -- he's a ridiculously good open field runner. But right now he has a < 3.4 yard/carry average and has the 19th most yardage in the NFC only. He has fewer carries, yards/carry, and TDs than his own teammate -- hey, it's like USC all over again!

Jerious Norwood, the backup running back for the Falcons, has more yards and a higher yards/carry than Bush right now.

One other observation: Atlanta is running the strangest goddamn offense I've seen in the NFL since...Atlanta was running the triple-back in the Reeves days. It's that wacky ass Vince Young shotgun spread option whatever the hell thing that Texas ran, and it works almost entirely because the defenses are flat out paralyzed by Vick's threat to run. No one tries to tackle anymore because they're standing back waiting to see what happens.

Crazy.

Atlanta better be the best damned rushing team of all time since they have jack for passing at this point.

Shmtur
09-18-2006, 08:56 PM
Shmtur 10-6
balut 10-6
Charlatan 10-6
Matt Perkins 12-4
Jim Preston 11-5
Nick Walter 10-6
RichVR 12-4
BaconTastesGood 11-5
Ryan A 14-2
Patrick 9-7
Rimbo 10-6
Robert Sharp 12-4
BillDungsroman 10-6
ceasarbear 12-4
SquirrelKiller 12-4
jeffd 12-4


I'm about to make another pass to double check those numbers, but that looks like our tally.

Fourteen and two. Wow.

edit:Ok, I screwed up on caesarbear and Matt Perkins' original scores. I had caesarbear with one extra win and Matt with one too few. Or about 100 too many, depending on how you look at it. These numbers should be correct.

RichVR
09-18-2006, 09:05 PM
Heh. I knew not voting for either home team would help me this time. Slackers.

caesarbear
09-18-2006, 09:49 PM
1. Eli Manning's "coming of age".
no kidding, honestly right now I wouldn't put Eli in the top 15 QBs.

2. Reggie Bush is God. ... He's maybe a slightly better version of Brian Westbrook... Seriously, they're all about how he's an insanely awesome receiver but all of his receptions that I saw were flares and swing passes and dump offs.

I think he's definately going to be a Westbrook, talented and flexible, but not the guy you hand the ball to create your running game. My bet for best receiving back this year is going to be Kevin Faulk. I'm maybe biased, but I think he's a good target due to the Pat's receiver downgrade and Faulk's ability to make catches like this one last week:
http://www.geocities.com/caesarbear2004/img/kfaulk1.jpg

Shmtur
09-19-2006, 12:40 PM
Ryan A 25-7
Matt Perkins 23-9
Robert Sharp 23-9
BaconTastesGood 22-10
Jim Preston 22-10
Nick Walter 21-11
balut 20-12
Patrick 20-12
SquirrelKiller 20-12
Charlatan 19-13
RichVR 19-13
BillDungsroman 18-14
ceasarbear 17-15 (worst score last week = 7-9, rule is if you miss a week you get 2 wins less than the worst scoring picks so 5-11 for week one)
jeffd (assuming your "home team wins" wasn't a joke) 17-15
Shmtur 17-15
Rimbo 15-17

Don't know why I forgot to put this up at the same time as the week's full tally. It looks like we're going to have some harder games to pick on week three, too.


...dammit. Yay for carelessness. Thanks, Robert.

Robert Sharp
09-19-2006, 02:43 PM
Poor, SK. He picked well, but nobody likes him so he goes to the bottom of the list.

jeffd
09-19-2006, 02:47 PM
home team wins is indeed my pick for the season (thanks TMQ!) That being said, while I might not pick the best - I guarantee that I have a better accuracy/effort ratio than anyone else. :D

Robert Sharp
09-19-2006, 02:52 PM
home team wins is indeed my pick for the season (thanks TMQ!) That being said, while I might not pick the best - I guarantee that I have a better accuracy/effort ratio than anyone else. :D

I'll take that bet. I do my picks in the time it takes me to bold them. About 30 seconds of cutting and pasting. I spend roughly three seconds deciding each game. It probably takes you that long to recognize which team is the home team :)

jeffd
09-19-2006, 02:54 PM
The great thing is I don't even have to recognize that. You'll note I just post "home team wins" and let someone else figure out who I picked. :D

Shmtur
09-19-2006, 02:58 PM
I never said I was going to do it every week, now did I?

Pretend I'm doing the evil villain laugh here.

sluggo
09-19-2006, 03:15 PM
Two weeks in, and I'm wondering if we already know who the AFC playoff teams will be: New England, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Indy, Jacksonville, and the AFC West winner (Denver vs San Diego?)

Who else would be in the chase? Miami looks lost right now, although they could rebound with a weak schedule. The Jets and Bills would probably both be thrilled to go 8-8. Oakland is pitiful. The Chiefs are in a 0-2 hole. The Browns, Titans and Texans will be lucky to win 5 games. Maybe the Ravens?

I know it's early, and teams can always improve as the year goes on, but it seems like we're already seeing some separation in the AFC, while the NFC still feels like a mix of 10-12 teams jockeying for position. It'll be interesting to look back in three months and see if I was smoking crack or not. :)

Shadarr
09-19-2006, 03:30 PM
They'll probably make the playoffs, but New England hasn't impressed me so far. They've looked beatable against some fairly sketchy teams. I won't be at all surprised if they lose to the Bengals, and they may even lose this week against the Broncos. If the schedule was reversed, they could be 0-2 right now instead of 2-0. However, if they beat who they should beat and lose to who they should lose to, they still end up 12-4 or 11-5, which is likely enough to win their division.

Pittsburgh too has looked shaky early. I'm not ready to call them a lock just yet, since they're coming off a shut-out. If their running game gets shut down the way it did last night, I don't expect Roethlisberger to win many games for them with his arm.

The teams I do think are locks for the playoffs are Jacksonville, Baltimore and San Diego, because they all run the ball well and play hellacious D.

jeffd
09-19-2006, 04:12 PM
I think Seattle is the closest thing to a sure thing in the NFL right now. They're not nearly as good as they were last year - their offensive line is suck, and Alexander is a nonfactor - but their division is just awful AWFUL.

dannimal
09-19-2006, 04:23 PM
I'd put Baltimore well ahead of the Steelers on the AFC, if we're doing a post week 2 projection. Also, San Diego (crushed bad teams on the road and at home) is well ahead of Denver (lost to a bad team on the road, squeaked out a no-TD win to a bad team at home).

Ryan A
09-19-2006, 05:07 PM
While I think it's evident that Seattle's offense is *currently* a significant downgrade from last year's (losing Hutch was hard, and nobody realizes just what we lost when Jurevicious went to Cleveland), their defense looks much, much better. I've always been a big fan of the Hammer and think he adds an awful lot to a defense led by the overachieving hustle of Lofa Tatupu.

Superbowl 2007?

Seahawks - Bengals

Also the fact that there are so many dreadfully bad teams this year makes it a lot easier to have a successful pick percentage when it's based only on W-L predictions... which I'm glad we're doing, because I *always* get screwed by the spread.

Shadarr
09-19-2006, 05:51 PM
Seattle makes the playoffs because they're in the NFC West, even though they'll probably lose two games against division opponents. However, I still think they were over-rated last season and are worse this season. And Alexander hasn't even torn up his knee yet, which is inevitable.

Ryan A
09-19-2006, 06:05 PM
And Alexander hasn't even torn up his knee yet, which is inevitable.

Do you have a reason for this belief of yours or is it just sheer spite?

I've never been a big fan of Alexander's game. I think he benefitted from running behind what was the best line in the NFL combined with the way the West-Coast offense really softens up defenses for the run through all the dink and dunk passing.

That said, there is absolutely nothing about Alexander's running style or the Seahawks' less-great-but-still-above-average offensive line to predict injury of any sort to a running back known more for his ability/preference to avoid the nasty hits than anything else.

jeffd
09-19-2006, 06:06 PM
Ryan: I'm not sure, but I think he was alluding to the Madden curse.

Ryan A
09-19-2006, 06:11 PM
Ryan: I'm not sure, but I think he was alluding to the Madden curse.

ah.. is he on the game? I've been boycotting EA ever since jpiniard's impassioned posts to boycott them!!1!

jeffd
09-19-2006, 06:24 PM
Yeah Alexander's on the cover this year. :( :(

He isn't injured, but he hasn't really been a factor. I think losing Hutch is the problem there as well.

Ryan A
09-19-2006, 06:49 PM
Yeah Walter Jones sans Hutchinson by his side isn't looking quite so All Pro, is he?

BaconTastesGood
09-19-2006, 07:23 PM
Yeah Walter Jones sans Hutchinson by his side isn't looking quite so All Pro, is he?

Jones has been fine in pass blocking, it's the running game that's getting completely mauled without Hutchinson, who was a road grader. Jones was good before Hutchinson showed up.

If Jones is looking bad these days it's probably age more than anything else, although tackle is one of the positions that can age pretty well.

Ryan A
09-19-2006, 07:36 PM
Don't get me wrong BTG, I'm not ready to throw Jones on the slag heap. He's still a very good tackle. I just don't have any more superlatives to throw his way and haven't heard any from the analysts either. He didn't suddenly grow old in between seasons either. He's missing his buddy.

Shadarr
09-19-2006, 08:06 PM
The thing is, the Seahawks haven't played anyone yet. If their running game looked bad against the Lions and Cardinals, imagine how bad they'll be against the Giants and Bears. Especially now that their other starting guard, Pork Chop Womack, is out for 6 weeks. The Seahawks could easily be 2-2 going into their bye. Sure, they have good defense. But we saw last night what happens to a defensive team with no running game. Eventually the defense wears down and gives up some points.

TheRock
09-19-2006, 10:21 PM
The running game isnt ready but it doesnt matter so much for Seattle with their West Coast passing game.....things will get better...their offense looked awful yet they still won.....the rust will come off and they will win 13.

Shmtur
09-20-2006, 01:56 AM
Just in case:
Here's the week 3 thread (http://www.quartertothree.com/game-talk/showthread.php?t=29364).

I'm running each week in separate threads because it makes it easier for me to keep track of things.