Free trade debunked?

[Bren]

Interesting article that looks at the economic performance of Mexico and Vietnam.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,16781,1664984,00.html

NAFTA is a joke. Softwood lumber is just the biggest example. $5 billion in illegal tariffs does not "free trade" make.

WE DON'T NAFTA IF WE DON'T WANNA!!!

[Rob Beschizza]

I hear Canadians talking about joining the EU instead. Can things really be that bad?

[Jason McCullough]

The US doesn't engage in free trade with anyone but first-world countries, and we get touchy about politically wired industries for that.

Everyone *else* gets "free trade" on exporting low-value raw materials or manufactures to us. "No trade" on all otehr materials due to huge tariffs on services (why do you think professionals are paid so well?) and agriculture.

Historically, the way to get rich is free and open *domestic* markets in "strategic trade" industries that are extremely sheltered from foreign competition, property rights for the middling sort, and having a functioning political/economic system that's not totally corrupt. That's how the US, UK, and Japan did it, off the top of my head.

[Bren]

The US doesn't engage in free trade with anyone but first-world countries...

Can you name an example? From what I can see, genuine "free trade" remains an abstract concept, not a reality.

[Jason McCullough]

Well, mostly free trade. There's not a whole lot of blockage on canadian imports, for example, with the exception of lumber.

[Backov]

.. and power.. and water.

Although I should say it's not blockage, so much as stealage.

[Bren]

And medicine...

Yeah, that's a whole lotta free trade there.

[MarchHare]

I hear Canadians talking about joining the EU instead. Can things really be that bad?


The softwood lumber issue is a REAL sore spot. It's gone before several NAFTA courts, including the highest possible tribunal, and Canada has won on virtually all counts. However, the US administration has refused to return the billions in (illegal) tariffs they have collected over the years. The tariffs have led to massive unemployment in the lumber sector and decimated entire communities, especially in BC.

Basicly, if the US would abide by the treaty that they negotiated and signed in good faith, there'd be no problem. Unfortunately, America only seems to play by the rules when it benefits them.

[Nick Walter]

Basicly, if the US would abide by the treaty that they negotiated and signed in good faith, there'd be no problem. Unfortunately, America only seems to play by the rules when it benefits them.

Considering that the average American boy scout troop probably possess more combat equipment, training, and manpower than the Canadian army, we really don't have to respect Canada much.

;-)

[Bren]

Thank you Ms. Coulter.

[Toddy]

Basicly, if the US would abide by the treaty that they negotiated and signed in good faith, there'd be no problem. Unfortunately, America only seems to play by the rules when it benefits them.

Considering that the average American boy scout troop probably possess more combat equipment, training, and manpower than the Canadian army, we really don't have to respect Canada much.

;-)

Wow, a shot at the Canadian military! How original and current! What will you skewer next with such satirical acumen? Back bacon? Geddy Lee?

[Rob Beschizza]

Wow, a shot at the Canadian military! How original and current! What will you skewer next with such satirical acumen? Back bacon? Geddy Lee?

Isn't the Canadian military basically the British military from 1975? By that, I mean literally the British military from 1975, because whenever Britain buids a new battleship or orders 100 tanks, the old ones are sold to Canada for something like $900 million, and then they break down within a couple of weeks?

It's cheap, yes, but that doesn stop the terms "Canada" and "Military" from producing a supernova of mirth whenever they meet.

[Bren]

What the god damn fucking hell are you shitheads talking aboot?

BTW, the aforementioned song with which Canada buys old UK warships is "I'm a lumberjack and I'm OK..."

[Rob Beschizza]

What the god damn fucking hell are you shitheads talking aboot?

BTW, the aforementioned song with which Canada buys old UK warships is "I'm a lumberjack and I'm OK..."

He refers to my unedited post, which incorrectly assumed the Canadians got the old junkers for cheap, for a song. When, in fact, the last batch was almost a billion dollars worth of decrepid diesel subs, one of which had a fire and broke down on the way back to Canada

[Bren]

What the god damn fucking hell are you shitheads talking aboot?

Too subtle?

[Nick Walter]

What the god damn fucking hell are you shitheads talking aboot?

Too subtle?

Apparently so. I chuckled though :)

[Rob Beschizza]

What the god damn fucking hell are you shitheads talking aboot?

Too subtle?

Apparently so. I chuckled though :)

I got it when I saw it, I just had to issue a missive so that the other comedy made sense :)

[Backov]

I personally think that Canada either needs to become the 51st state, legit (or is it 52nd? I dunno how many states you guys have. Does Iraq count?) - OR, they need to drop NAFTA and all the rest of the shit that makes Canada the USAs retarded cousin and start selling everything to other nations. Like China.

Because I'm sure North Dakota doesn't get fucked as much as Canada does by the rest of the union.

[Nick Walter]

I personally think that Canada either needs to become the 51st state, legit (or is it 52nd? I dunno how many states you guys have. Does Iraq count?) - OR, they need to drop NAFTA and all the rest of the shit that makes Canada the USAs retarded cousin and start selling everything to other nations. Like China.

Because I'm sure North Dakota doesn't get fucked as much as Canada does by the rest of the union.

Iraq is a rental, we have to return it and pay for damages. Too bad we didn't take the insurance option the nice clerk offered us.

If you think North Dakota takes less crap than Canada, you've never tried to get free health care in North Dakota ;-)

[Nellie]

I personally think that Canada either needs to become the 51st state

Depending on who wins the next election we might possibly be trying to make our unofficial status official.

[wildpokerman]

GDP per capita Mexico=$9000.00
GDP per capita Vietnam = $2250.00

Vietnam should catch up to Mexio sometime around the year 2132 with current growth rates.

Maybe then we can compare the two economies on an apples to apples basis and see which one is better. Maybe until then we can write lame posts based off half assed articles.

Free trade is DOMED!!111!!!

[Phil_Stein]

I personally think that Canada either needs to become the 51st state

Depending on who wins the next election we might possibly be trying to make our unofficial status official.

What's that mean? Out of curiousity, does a fuller merger with the U.S. ever get seriously discussed in Canada?

[madkevin]

What's that mean? Out of curiousity, does a fuller merger with the U.S. ever get seriously discussed in Canada?

It means that one of the many subtexts of the new Conservative party is to essentially change Canada into a mirror of the United States. They want to privatize health care, make it harder to get an abortion, tougher crime laws, etc. Basically, if the Conservatives get their way we'll be Canadian in name only - more so even than we are now.

Outside of Quebec, though, merger with the U.S. is not a seriously-discussed topic. (Probably not within Quebec, either, but I do remember some things being talked about during the referendum.) Canadians are a funny bunch, as there is something almost ineffable about our Canadian identity that sets us apart from you Yanks. Being Canadian is like separating art from porn - I may not be able to define it, but I know it when I see it.

[Kalle]

I'm sure the EU would be willing to open up membership talks with Canada should you ever feel the need to have some muscle backing you in your trade disputes. I mean, besides the slight geographical inconsistency, it's a win for everyone.

[Tim Partlett]

I'd love to invite Canada into the EU, but to be part of a trading zone you really need to be trading a lot within it, even if you aren't geographically a part of it. Unfortunately for that idea, Canada does three-quarters of its trade with the USA, and after that Japan and China are bigger partners than any EU nation. We could invite them in with partner status, like Switzerland and Norway, to open borders and improve trade links. We could also sign the freedom of movement treaties, which would allow Canadians to work in Europe and vice-versa. But full EU status wouldn't make much sense.

[MarchHare]

I personally think that Canada either needs to become the 51st state

Depending on who wins the next election we might possibly be trying to make our unofficial status official.

What's that mean? Out of curiousity, does a fuller merger with the U.S. ever get seriously discussed in Canada?

http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20051201-081526-4938r.htm


Why does President Bush hope Christmas comes a little late this year? Because on Jan. 23, Canada may elect the most pro-American leader in the Western world. Free-market economist Stephen Harper, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, is pro-free trade, pro-Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, and socially conservative. Move over Tony Blair: If elected, Mr. Harper will quickly become Mr. Bush's new best friend internationally and the poster boy for his ideal foreign leader.

[Backov]

Except that will never happen. They'll reelect the liberals before they elect the conservatives.

Canada (with the exception of Alberta) is like one giant big blue state. A former prime minister even stated on national tv that "If a Canadian politician had stated on the record that God talked to him, he would never be elected for anything."

So the Conservatives are pretty anomalous for Canada. And it's a good thing too, like we need yet another bunch of loonies running a first world country.

[Bren]

GDP per capita Mexico=$9000.00
GDP per capita Vietnam = $2250.00

Yeah, because GDP always tells the whole picture, dunnit? Especially per capita GDP. Know what the "best" nation in the world is by that measure? Luxembourg. LOL!11!!!

GDP growth rate
Mexico = 4.1%
Vietnam = 7.7%

Unemployment
Mexico = 3.2% (25% undermployment)
Vietnam = 1.9%

Population below poverty line
Mexico = 40%
Vietnam = 25%

Mmm, that GDP sho tastes good, dunnit Mexico? That's distribution of wealth, free trade style!

More? OK!

GDP - composition by sector
Mexico
agriculture: 4%
industry: 27.2%
services: 68.9% Would you like fries with that, senor?
Vietnam
agriculture: 21.8%
industry: 40.1%
services: 38.1%

Please sir, may I have some more?

Industrial production growth rate:
Mexico = 3.8%
Vietnam = 16%

Debt - external:
Mexico = $150 billion
Vietnam = $16 billion

But you're right, it's not comparing apples to apples, and that's not fair.

After all, Mexico wasn't decimated by a major war in the last century, hasn't suffered decades of embargos, and Vietnam hasn't reaped the benefits of selling 86% of its exports to the richest nation in the world...

[DeepT]

I had thought that Canada had a decent millitary, and did some research. I found out they do not.

However, in several papers I read, there was an interesting analysis of Canada as a world player. They are not taken very seriously by the international community due to its lack of ability to project its force. Right now Canada has very close ties to Washington which causes a lot of resentment. Ironically to seperate itself from Washington and gain much more prominance in the world, it needs to become more like Washington, espeically with respect to millitary and foriegn policy. Such a move, however, would greatly strengthen the relationship between the two countries, although more as equals opposed to whatever it is we have now.

[Troy S Goodfellow]

Canada's influence has been channeled into what has become known as "soft power" - foreign aid, economic influence, its strong relationships with major players like US and UK, peacekeeping, moral authority etc.

International power is about more than military influence after all. Japan has a strong military, but that's not the root of its power. Canada is taken seriously by a lot of countries, moreso than the US when it comes to environmental regulation and human rights.

The military is pretty terrible though - it's come to the point where Canada can't do as much peacekeeping as they traditionally have. Did they ever replace those Seahawk helicopters that kept crashing?

Troy

[Tim Partlett]

GDP - composition by sector
Mexico
agriculture: 4%
industry: 27.2%
services: 68.9% Would you like fries with that, senor?
Vietnam
agriculture: 21.8%
industry: 40.1%
services: 38.1%

While I won't argue with your other points, I am not sure why you think this is a bad sign for Mexico's underpaid. Usually a bouyant service sector is a sign of a healthy, progressive economy. While serving up fries or working in a call center isn't the most rewarding of jobs, compared to being a labourer in a third-world paddy field it is positively luxurious. I know which job I'd rather do, and from studies I've seen of workers in these kind of countries (Vietnam and Indonesia in particular) they are of the same opinion. Vietnamese workers in Nike's air conditioned factories felt a sense of pride that they were no longer working 12 hour back-breaking shifts, knee deep in sludge, while risking their lives to the life taking snakes that were endemic in the countryside there.

[Bren]

I had thought that Canada had a decent millitary, and did some research. I found out they do not.

Canada's military tends to specialize. They are world leaders in areas like surveillance, mine detection and removal, peace keeping expertise, that kind of thing. But in terms of sheer numbers and "projection of power," yeah, pretty weak.

[Toddy]

I'm sure the EU would be willing to open up membership talks with Canada should you ever feel the need to have some muscle backing you in your trade disputes. I mean, besides the slight geographical inconsistency, it's a win for everyone.

ROFL! Yeah, because we all know that Dubya's America really listens to Europe!

All we have to do is cut off the natural gas for a couple of days and see what happens. And we're already making deals with China over oil. The US is going to have to be pretty careful over how it manages its relations with Canada, if it wants continued preferred access to our oil and natural gas reserves. There are other customers out there, y'know, as the Chinese deals make very clear.

As for the military, the Liberals have been dumping billions into military spending over the past couple of years. You can thank Crouton for letting the military get into such deplorable shape, but there finally seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

Oh, and DeepT -- how old are these papers? Because, if anything, Canada's reputation internationally has soared since telling Dubya to piss off over Iraq. And we've also gained loads of credibility by continuing to push Kyoto and openly pressure the US to get on board. Also, Canada hasn't had "very close ties" to the US since Clinton was in power. Chretien hated Bush, and Martin turned down missile defense and has done little but slam the US the past couple weeks of the election campaign. Relations right now are the worst they've been in decades, probably since Diefenbaker was PM in the early 1960s. Which is great, because the US is being run by a collection of lunatics, fascists, and criminals at the moment.

[DeepT]

Acutally they are a couple of years old, the only publication date I recall is from 2002.

However, lets not confuse popularity with reputation. Pretty much any countries whom themselves do not have dirty hands can score good brownie points with the international community by telling everyone what fucked up shit the USA is doing.

Oddly this reminds me a dream I had last night, which up until this point I didn't even remember having. Basically it was about the 2008 election and the rebulicans, lost the majority of thier seats as well as the presidency. I recall the numbers that only 30% of the seats up for grabs made it into republican hands. The media was going nuts about it.

Odd, I never had a dream about any such kinds of things before. I wonder if it is a preminition or just a wishful dream.

[Rob Beschizza]

I think there are a number of countries that are EU in all but name, adhering to certain economic restraints and operating defacto border policies -- so that, when the government can finally swing the entrance referendum, it's a no-pain entry.

Switzerland, Norway and Iceland are the obvious ones. People have mentioned Australia and New Zealand also, which is both stunningly obvious and totally crazy.

[Ed Solomon]

I'd love to invite Canada into the EU, but to be part of a trading zone you really need to be trading a lot within it, even if you aren't geographically a part of it. Unfortunately for that idea, Canada does three-quarters of its trade with the USA, and after that Japan and China are bigger partners than any EU nation. We could invite them in with partner status, like Switzerland and Norway, to open borders and improve trade links. We could also sign the freedom of movement treaties, which would allow Canadians to work in Europe and vice-versa. But full EU status wouldn't make much sense.

Wait a minute! Doesn't the E in EU still stand for European? Isn't there some kind of rule that to be invited for membership that the country be located in the aforementioned continent?

[Toddy]

Regardless, Canada doesn't want or need membership in the EU.

[Kalle]

ROFL! Yeah, because we all know that Dubya's America really listens to Europe!


When it comes to international trade the EU can throw a lot of weight around. The US doesn't have to listen but if they pulled a stunt like that with the softwood lumber then the EU could and would hurt them just as bad. Without resorting to as drastic a measure as cutting off the oil/gas supply.

Wait a minute! Doesn't the E in EU still stand for European? Isn't there some kind of rule that to be invited for membership that the country be located in the aforementioned continent?

There probably is, but if there is a compelling reason it doesn't mean it will stay that way.

Regardless, I was mostly joking about Canada joining the EU.

[Backov]

Well they just said tariffs, not "cut off", but ya..

If Canada were to cut off the USs supply of oil, we'd be declared to have WMDs and invaded post-haste.

[shift6]

Wait a minute! Doesn't the E in EU still stand for European? Isn't there some kind of rule that to be invited for membership that the country be located in the aforementioned continent?
I imagine that if/when enough countries get to this level, the EU will pass some kind of "extended membership" deal which recognizes countries that abide by EU policies while not actually being part of the contiguous landmass. Alternatively , they could change the "E" to "Earth Union".

[Chris Nahr]

There are already (interminable) negotiations with Turkey, most of whose landmass and population resides outside of Europe. Also, I think France's overseas départements such as Martinique are also technically part of the EU.

[Aikes]

Free trade is great for the people negotiating the trades. For the farmers on bottom it sucks.

The price per pound to sell beef cattle in the US has remained the same and even dropped some since Clinton initiated the trade agreement.

Now farmers and ranchers in the US are selling farms and ranches at an alarming rate. The land is being bought by corporations and developers. The only two people to benefit are the corporations and developers who have lobbies in washington that seem to be working overtime.

The farmer/rancher in the US is forced to compete with south american counterparts that are not constricted with labor laws, minimum wage laws, workplace laws, environmental laws, land tax, etc etc etc. The situation looks bad for the US farmer/rancher.

Pre-trade agreement no Farm Aid was needed. Now we pay other nations for what could easily be achieved here.

[Tim Partlett]

Wait a minute! Doesn't the E in EU still stand for European? Isn't there some kind of rule that to be invited for membership that the country be located in the aforementioned continent?

The EU is looking to extend its influence outside the continent, so some kind of associate membership for a country like Canada wouldn't be totally out of the question. The EU currently has free trade "association" agreements with a number of non-European countries, including Morocco, Lebanon and Israel. Morocco's exports to the EU has almost doubled since it signed the agreement, and it is hoped that the carrot of further integration into the EU's markets will act as a carrot to improve political freedom and stability in these countries.

Some form of full membership for these countries is certainly on the cards. Israel, for example, would be a perfect candidate if only the Palestinian issue could be resolved. That isn't as hard as it sounds, as it would only require a solid agreement on the borders with a new Palestinian state, not an end to the simmering tensions between the two peoples. Israel would gain massively from joining the EU: a huge boost in trade, the option of joining a stable Euro currency (the shekel is notoriously unstable), an end to its political isolation in the region, and the security of being part of a powerful regional military bloc.

Israel's parliament is already considering applying for membership, and although it would take many years for membership to come about, the Israelis have a lot less work internally than nations further down the road to membership, like Turkey and Bulgaria. Internally, excluding the occupied territories, Israel's political infrastructure is very similar to that demanded by EU membership: it's a very typical modern liberal democracy. It's not perfect, but I don't think the Israelis would have many problems adapting.

The main issue is political: the EU has been seen as pro-Palestinian by the Israelis, and the Israelis as pro-American by the EU. Bringing Israel into the fold could also cause the EU to worsen its relationships with other countries in the region, especially those that continue to refuse to acknowledge Israel's existence, like Syria and Iran. I would imagine that normalising relations with these countries may be part of any membership agreement, but thankfully the carrot of improved trade relations would help to encourage these countries to accept Israel's existence too.

[Johan O]

In response to Aikes comment on free trade, Farm Aid, agriculture and Clinton.

Farm Aid started as a benefit concert on September 22, 1985 in Champaign, Illinois, held to raise money for family farmers in the United States. The concert was organized by Willie Nelson and John Mellencamp, spurred on by Bob Dylan's comments at Live Aid earlier in that year. Nelson and Mellencamp then brought family farmers before Congress to testify about the state of family farming in America. Congress subsequently passed the Agricultural Credit Act of 1987 to help save family farms from foreclosure.

So there has been a percieved need for Farm Aid since at least the halcyon days of Reagan administration. Well before Clinton came into office.

[Ben]

Johan O- And there's never been an actual need for private Farm Aid because farmers are given great gobs of money by the government so we never have to face the possibility of depending on furriners for sugar. Also, so Congressmen can threaten to take away subsidies unless agri-business conglomerates buy them Rolls-Royces. Corporate welfare at it's best!

[Dante Rising]

Americans should just be grateful that they don't share a northern border with a country that is either

A) Hellbent on destroying America

or

B) Has a citizen base that completely disregards the laws and sovereignty of our nation by flooding us with millions of illegals each year.


Send those damned Canadians a fruit basket, President Bush!

[Rob Beschizza]

Isn't there some kind of rule that to be invited for membership that the country be located in the aforementioned continent?

Not at all. Morocco has applied in the past, has an associate status and will likely join if they sort out their dodgy occupation of Western Sahara. Israel is a shoe-in once the Palestinian problem is dealt with.

Before either of these come to fruition, the accession of asian countries such as Georgia, and possibly even Armenia, is quite likely. I would bet my hat on Georgia, even if Turkey doesn't work out.

I foresee it becoming an interesting issue in Australia, once they finally realize there that southeast Asia couldn't give a damn about them.

[Rob Beschizza]

The way I've had the U.S. Agriculture sector explained to me, it sounds like the world's most explicit example of deadweight socialistic excess ever, ;of paying people to not innovate and to remain internationally uncompetitive solely to protect personal incomes. As in, it makes the EU's common agricultural policy look like an Ayn Rand capitalist fantasy.

[wildpokerman]

GDP per capita Mexico=$9000.00
GDP per capita Vietnam = $2250.00

Yeah, because GDP always tells the whole picture, dunnit? Especially per capita GDP. Know what the "best" nation in the world is by that measure? Luxembourg. LOL!11!!!

GDP growth rate
Mexico = 4.1%
Vietnam = 7.7%

Unemployment
Mexico = 3.2% (25% undermployment)
Vietnam = 1.9%

Population below poverty line
Mexico = 40%
Vietnam = 25%

Mmm, that GDP sho tastes good, dunnit Mexico? That's distribution of wealth, free trade style!

More? OK!

GDP - composition by sector
Mexico
agriculture: 4%
industry: 27.2%
services: 68.9% Would you like fries with that, senor?
Vietnam
agriculture: 21.8%
industry: 40.1%
services: 38.1%

Please sir, may I have some more?

Industrial production growth rate:
Mexico = 3.8%
Vietnam = 16%

Debt - external:
Mexico = $150 billion
Vietnam = $16 billion

But you're right, it's not comparing apples to apples, and that's not fair.

After all, Mexico wasn't decimated by a major war in the last century, hasn't suffered decades of embargos, and Vietnam hasn't reaped the benefits of selling 86% of its exports to the richest nation in the world...

Yes you're right Bren, my point is that on any single point of data it's tough to say that a certian piece of the puzzle is the root cause of all economic data.

The US had a recession a couple years ago, could you compare the recession with grown in another country at the same time and say Nafta is messed up? I don't think so. The writer of the orginal article is a half assed economist at best.

[wildpokerman]

GDP - composition by sector
Mexico
agriculture: 4%
industry: 27.2%
services: 68.9% Would you like fries with that, senor?
Vietnam
agriculture: 21.8%
industry: 40.1%
services: 38.1%

While I won't argue with your other points, I am not sure why you think this is a bad sign for Mexico's underpaid. Usually a bouyant service sector is a sign of a healthy, progressive economy. While serving up fries or working in a call center isn't the most rewarding of jobs, compared to being a labourer in a third-world paddy field it is positively luxurious. I know which job I'd rather do, and from studies I've seen of workers in these kind of countries (Vietnam and Indonesia in particular) they are of the same opinion. Vietnamese workers in Nike's air conditioned factories felt a sense of pride that they were no longer working 12 hour back-breaking shifts, knee deep in sludge, while risking their lives to the life taking snakes that were endemic in the countryside there.

USA:
agriculture: 0.9%
industry: 19.7%
services: 79.4% (2004 est.)

Seems like a service based economy may be the road to wealth?

[Ben]

yurislave- You silly man, people would rather be working rice paddies to avoid starvation than suffer the indignities of the service sector. Nobody wants a job that's indoors and pays you in money, that's ridiculous.