PC Publishers shoot themselves in the foot... again

[Igor Muravyev]

Is it just me or is *every* game coming out in October?

Age of Empires III - October
Black & White 2 - Out this week
Call of Duty 2 - October
FEAR - October
Quake IV - October

And possibly some more games that I haven't though about.

So why are they doing it? Do they *want* to ensure that people don't buy their games because the market is satured with other AAA titles?

[TomChick]

Umm, it's a well-known retail phenomenon called the holidays. Maybe you missed it last time around, but we have it every year. :)

The fact of the matter is that when it comes to gaming, your and my shopping habits are not typical.

-Tom

[Igor Muravyev]

Umm, it's a well-known retail phenomenon called the holidays. Maybe you missed it last time around, but we have it every year. :)

The fact of the matter is that when it comes to gaming, your and my shopping habits are not typical.

-Tom

Okay, but all of them in the same month? And all of them titles that more likely than not will score 90%+? In a rapidly shrinking market? :shock:

[TomChick]

The real question here, Igor, is what do you have against Civ IV?

-Tom

[Igor Muravyev]

Is that coming out this month too? You just proved my point... even if I can afford to buy all of them, I can't afford to play all of them. :cry:

[Talisker]

Okay, but all of them in the same month? And all of them titles that more likely than not will score 90%+? In a rapidly shrinking market? :shock:
Dude. Christmas shopping. If this was a stupid strategy, you wouldn't see the publishers doing the same thing every year; if spacing release dates evenly across the calendar would bring in more cash, they'd already be doing it.

Is that coming out this month too? You just proved my point... even if I can afford to buy all of them, I can't afford to play all of them. :cry:
So... buy some of 'em in February instead? (you'll probably even be able to save a few bucks by *cough* buying 'em used!)

[Reed]

Okay, but all of them in the same month? And all of them titles that more likely than not will score 90%+? In a rapidly shrinking market? :shock:
Dude. Christmas shopping. If this was a stupid strategy, you wouldn't see the publishers doing the same thing every year; if spacing release dates evenly across the calendar would bring in more cash, they'd already be doing it.
What, you think publishers never do stupid things? *boggle*

Remember how many good games got lost in the shuffle the last two Xmas seasons?

[steve]

Remember how many good games got lost in the shuffle the last two Xmas seasons?
They still might have sold more copies in November, "lost" or not, than they would have sold in April or June.

Publishers may be stupid about a bunch of things (or at least dumber than forum posters), but when something like 40% of the year's revenue comes from a two-month period, it might be smart to have a new game on the shelf.

[Dave Long]

You really need to work in retail to understand why this happens. People simply spend way more money at this time of the year. Businesses are made or broken on Christmas sales. The last couple months often account for as much as 50% of a retailer's sales.

Besides, you guys will just go buy the games later anyway.

--Dave

[Reed]

Remember how many good games got lost in the shuffle the last two Xmas seasons?
They still might have sold more copies in November, "lost" or not, than they would have sold in April or June.

Publishers may be stupid about a bunch of things (or at least dumber than forum posters), but when something like 40% of the year's revenue comes from a two-month period, it might be smart to have a new game on the shelf.
That's not entirely just because it's Xmas though, but because that's when ALL the games are released. If games like Halo 2, GTA: SA and Half-Life 2 would have shipped in mid-summer, then you wouldn't see such a overwhelming spike in Nov/Dec.

Would Mercenaries have sold as well if it released in Nov or Dec last year, instead of January? I really doubt it. Who would get Mercenaries when you're smack in the middle of playing GTA: SA, Halo 2, Half-Life 2 and World of Warcraft? And by the time you're done w/ all those, you look to see what has just come out and have long forgotten about Mercenaries.

Besides, you guys will just go buy the games later anyway.
Really? Hardcore gamers are the early adopters, and have very short memories.

[Dave Long]

That's bull. Hardcore gamers are always buying older games at the same time they're lining up their dough for some of the "next big thing" stuff.

Look, I know you don't believe us, people like me that actually worked in game retail (and still work on the backend of big box retailing), but it's the truth. Selling games at other times of the year just isn't as worthwhile unless the game is called Battlefield 2 or something similar and there just aren't that many games that you can do that with.

Even so, there's often a point of diminishing returns shipping the blockbusters in March or April because most of the casual people simply don't care at that time of year.

--Dave

[Reed]

Even so, there's often a point of diminishing returns shipping the blockbusters in March or April because most of the casual people simply don't care at that time of year.
Res Evil 4 (despite only being on the 'cube), Mercenaries (not even a blockbuster) and God of War did quite alright. And if Halo 2, GTA, etc released in April, it's not like they wouldn't still be on shelves for the next Xmas.

Also, maybe casual people would start caring if GTA or such was released throughout the year. If things were spread out more, I think it would help grow the industry overall.

[Dave Long]

*sigh* OK. You're right.

--Dave

[TomChick]

Reed, nothing personal, but you're pretty clueless.

Games are marketed not just to guys like you and me and Igor. The really successful ones are pushed at people who only buy a couple a year, and to people who are more likely to buy them during the holidays when the money's flowing freely on non-essentials and gifts.

You can list exceptions all you like, but for every Mercenaries (which was a gamble that paid off for Lucasarts), there are dozens of games that lost money in the same period. Dozens.

The industry is the way it is not because there are a bunch of stupid people running around who don't know any better than to listen to you. The industry is the way it is because it knows how to make money.

-Tom

[BooTx]

Is Serious Sam 2 not coming out this month? It went gold a week or two ago.

[Menzo]

If you look at a sales chart you'll notice that almost every game that is on shelves sees their sales DOUBLE in October, then go up again in November, stay high in December, then return to normal in January. This is true of nearly any game on shelf - from old ones to new ones.

People spend way, way, way more money during the holidays. And since we know that the vast majority of gamers don't buy more than two or three games a year, releasing 10 or more PC games in the same month has no bearing on their sales potential, at least during the holidays.

What I find interesting is how little the average hard core gamer knows about actual sales figures. They think that because everyone they know is playing a game that it must be a hit. Chronicles of Riddick was a smash success, right? Wrong. It's important for you guys to understand that you (mostly) exist in a very insular world. The people in your world make up a smallish, but very important, portion of a hit game's sales.

[Mattc0m]

I forget the stat, but something like the #1 best-selling game of March sells less than the #12 best-selling game of December. I forget the exact stat - but it's something crazy like that. I agree that it'd be nicer for me to see some games spread out... but I understand why it's not happening, and I just make everything down on a list to buy later if I can't get it all at once.

[Menzo]

I guess the good news for folks who want to play everything is that they can pick up some games at a cheaper price in a few months. Everyone wins.

[Dave Long]

They could even buy those games used!

Dear God, what have I done?!

--Dave

[sluggo]

If you look at a sales chart you'll notice that almost every game that is on shelves sees their sales DOUBLE in October, then go up again in November, stay high in December, then return to normal in January.
Do you have such a sales chart you could share? :)

My point being, it's not surprising gamers don't understand sales figures, because -- unlike movies and music, where sales figures are readily avaiable -- gamers have so little data to go on. Even the NPD reports, which cost huge $$$ to subscribe to, are highly suspect.

p.s. Serious Sam 2 is next week; Brothers in Arms 2 came out today.

[Ben Sones]

I said it last year, and now I'll say it again--when the slow season comes and everyone is bitching about having nothing to play, I'm going to ressurrect this thread and remind you guys of all the games you didn't have time to play over the holidays.

Seriously, it's not like you have to play all of these games now. I spent spring through fall of this year catching up on a whole crapload of stuff that I didn't have time to play last Christmas. A lot of them had been marked down, too, so I ended up getting stuff like Battle for Middle Earth for $19.99. Not a bad deal at all.

[Drunkagain]

Is it just me or is *every* game coming out in October?

Age of Empires III - October
Black & White 2 - Out this week
Call of Duty 2 - October
FEAR - October
Quake IV - October

And possibly some more games that I haven't though about.

So why are they doing it? Do they *want* to ensure that people don't buy their games because the market is satured with other AAA titles?

You think you've got it bad. Aside from B&W 2, I want all the games on your list and would add,

Oblivion
Stubbs the Zombie
Civ IV
The Movies
Serious Sam 2

Guess I'll have to buy half of them six months down the road....USED! :P

[Tom McNamara]

What I find interesting is how little the average hard core gamer knows about actual sales figures. They think that because everyone they know is playing a game that it must be a hit. Chronicles of Riddick was a smash success, right? Wrong. It's important for you guys to understand that you (mostly) exist in a very insular world. The people in your world make up a smallish, but very important, portion of a hit game's sales.

I take it you've never visited the Gaming Age forums.

[Shadari]

You nerds can bicker about which games sell and when. All I know is that there are a lot of good games coming out real soon... I just gotta break this damn WoW habit before I can play them. :oops:

[Mark Asher]

The positive is that if they come out in October and you exercise patience, you can buy them one by one in the coming weeks as they go on sale at Best Buy, CompUSA, Target, etc., periodically.

You pay a premium when you buy them in the first few days of release. It takes the chains a week or so to put them on sale.

[Chris Nahr]

That's true, I rarely pay more than €30 for a new game anymore. My backlog is just so big, and new games get discounted so fast...

So a holiday glut basically means more cheap games for us... in a month or two! :)

[RobotPants]

I'm a financial disaster at the moment and it hurts me greatly to see all these games I've been reading about and looking forward to for months and years all start to trickle in at the same time. Oh how I'd love to just not pay rent this month and go crazy buying games. :(

Also, City of Villains is supposed to release at the end of the month, too. They recently announced (http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=villains&Number=3814940&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1)that owners of both CoH and CoV would only pay one monthly fee of $15, which is pretty damn rad. :)

[Moore]

Is it just me or is *every* game coming out in October?

Age of Empires III - October
Black & White 2 - Out this week
Call of Duty 2 - October
FEAR - October
Quake IV - October

And possibly some more games that I haven't though about.

So why are they doing it? Do they *want* to ensure that people don't buy their games because the market is satured with other AAA titles?

You think you've got it bad. Aside from B&W 2, I want all the games on your list and would add,

Oblivion
Stubbs the Zombie
Civ IV
The Movies
Serious Sam 2

Guess I'll have to buy half of them six months down the road....USED! :P

ditto, and ditto on the used. Except I'm buying like 5 copies of stubbs, just based on my 20 minutes of play in May.

[Marcus]

Hey dont go look to see whats going to be released in November.

[RepoMan]

Hey dont go look to see whats going to be released in November.
So... what's going to be released in November? ;-)

I'm not even sure what's the best place to look anymore. Let's try gamestop.com... (I only care about xbox, pc, and ds, so let's just look at those...)

Battlefront II
Castlevania: Curse of Darkness (for Xbox?! didn't know about this!)
Gun
Matrix: Path of Neo (OK, fine, but I'm reserving judgment - even Shiny can learn)
King Kong
Call of Cthulhu: Dark Corners of the Earth (I can't keep track of which Cthulhu game is which)
GalCiv II (w00t!)
Rise of Legends
The Movies
Auto Assault
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (for PC)

Ooh, and then in December there's Hammer and Sickle, PoP 3, ...

And meanwhile my backlog is still at a record length. But it's all Dungeon Siege 2's fault. Well, that and my adorable ten-month-old baby girl :-D

Cheers!
Rob

[Lee Johnson]

Well, forget about Rise of Legends, which isn't due until sometime in 2006.

[Robert Sharp]

Also, City of Villains is supposed to release at the end of the month, too. They recently announced (http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=villains&Number=3814940&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1)that owners of both CoH and CoV would only pay one monthly fee of $15, which is pretty damn rad. :)

Yes, very good of them! But I doubt it will release in October. Hopefully, it will be out before Xmas though!

[Marcin]

Yes, very good of them! But I doubt it will release in October. Hopefully, it will be out before Xmas though!

They seem (http://www.cityofvillains.com/faq/faq.html) very (http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=Dev&Number=3797430&bodyprev=#Post3797430) determined about it. I suspect they (Cryptic) have a deadline from NCSoft as well as from the season's timing.

[Midnight Son]

Playing right now: Dragon Warrior VII, Gladius and DDS. I can wait a good long time before I actually need to buy anything.

Some of the backlog: Xenogears, Vagrant Story, Breath of Fire III, IV, Final Fantasy 8 and 9, Chrono Trigger, Stella Deus, ah hell.... it just goes on and on! Looking forward to the Oblivion Gold box with both official expansions.... in 2007.

[dannimal]

Was there a time when it was thought that people would have to pay subs for both CoH and CoV? I've never played CoH (still have it in my desk, waiting for me to tire of Wow), but it was my outsider understanding that CoV was an expansion that effectively added a Horde to the Hero's Alliance, that it was just an expansion. Given that, wouldn't it have been expected that it was just 1 sub, like any other MMO expansion?

[Marcus]

Thats what you would think but I guess not.

I think its fucking retarded but whatever.

[Ben Sones]

It's not an expansion; it's a standalone game. It shares some zones with CoH (where you can fight hero players), but you don't need to own CoH to play CoV. They hadn't released any info about pricing or subscriptions for owners of both games previously, but I think this is the smartest move for them.

[Marcus]

So if its a standalone game they thought it would be a great idea to introduce yet another MMO in to the market?

[Cold Blooded]

What I find interesting is how little the average hard core gamer knows about actual sales figures. They think that because everyone they know is playing a game that it must be a hit. Chronicles of Riddick was a smash success, right? Wrong. It's important for you guys to understand that you (mostly) exist in a very insular world. The people in your world make up a smallish, but very important, portion of a hit game's sales.

Would like to quote this for emphasis. Thanks.

[Tom McNamara]

What I find interesting is how little the average hard core gamer knows about actual sales figures. They think that because everyone they know is playing a game that it must be a hit. Chronicles of Riddick was a smash success, right? Wrong. It's important for you guys to understand that you (mostly) exist in a very insular world. The people in your world make up a smallish, but very important, portion of a hit game's sales.

Would like to quote this for emphasis. Thanks.

I take it that you've never been to the Gaming Age forums either.

[jpinard]

I posted about this exact same subject last year with a poll. http://www.quartertothree.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=15718&highlight=

I still think it hurts games to release all together. A pc game can't get near the release coverage amoungst 15 other big games, as compared to releasing with no competition. Could be different for console games, but in the current pc era - I think it hurts overall sales.

Note - Has anyone ever produced more than anecdotal evidence supporting a "pc game released in October with competion" - faring better than "said game released in July". Just because it may have been true 10 years ago, doesn't mean it stands true now.