Xbox 360 and HD-DVD

[Ephraim]

According to news (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=9804), Microsoft is likely to release an HD-DVD version of the Xbox 360 sometime in the future, but not at launch.

I believe this is a huge mistake. I've been following the high definition DVD format wars for awhile and I've had the following thoughts:

1. When talks of a unified standard (Blu Ray and HD-DVD merged) were going on, I thought Sony's inclusion of Blu Ray in the PS3 was premature.
2. Now that the unified standard is dead and we're looking at a format war, Blu Ray is looking really likely to succeed because people will be getting a Blu Ray player in their PS3. For most, this will likely be their first chance to get their hands on a high-def movie format at a reasonable price point (much like the PS2 introduced DVD to Japan's consumers).
3. Microsoft needs to include a HD movie disc format in their machine, or it's just one huge selling point that Sony has over them. These systems are supposed to be with us for 4 - 5 years. That means we'll be using them until 2009 or so - HD is going to be mainstream as hell by then.
4. Developers would most likely not complain with the more disc space than 9GB currently allowed for in the DVD format that Xbox 360's launch specs call for.

So, I think Microsoft is being tremendously dumb/naive. They should hold off on launching the Xbox 360 until they can launch it with a proper high-definition media player. I was planning on getting a first generation Xbox 360, but why should I bother now? If I wait a few months I can get an HD-DVD version. And I doubt I'm the only one thinking that way. I can't imagine people in the know paying out for a first gen Xbox 360 now.

I just don't get MS. They seem determined to lose the next generation race.

[Matthew Gallant]

BluRay is no sure thing. We're talking about the BetaMax and MiniDisc company, after all. BluRay could already be a dead format before the PS3 even hits retail, depending on timing.

It would be the right thing for Xbox 360 to have HD-DVD in from the start, but not having it won't kill them. The games won't need it, and as for movies I doubt HD-DVD players will take very long to get down to the same price point as the currently extremely cheap DVD players.

Plus, factor in how many people actually have HDTV (not many), and all this HD stuff is only something you'll want to have to be competitive a 2.5-3 years from now, not a do or die by the end of the year deal. Right now, HD stuff is a draw for the tech-lover market only.

What it boils down to is that game consoles are still about games. Nintendo is walking the finest line as far as timing goes with no HD in Revolution, but even they should be OK. Microsoft definitely will.

[dannimal]

I don't think HD tvs will be mainstream as hell for most of the XB360's life. Heck, Nintendo is still debating (if they haven't decided already, I can't remember) on including HD support AT ALL.

I think the people that will really care about HD will own an HD-DVD/BluRay player. Just like anyone who gives a crap about quality now doesn't rely on the XBox or PS2 DVD players, so it's not a big deal.

[TriggerHappy]

I think the people that will really care about HD will own an HD-DVD/BluRay player. Just like anyone who gives a crap about quality now doesn't rely on the XBox or PS2 DVD players, so it's not a big deal.

I knew an awful lot of people who got the PS2 for DVD playback, as their first DVD player.

Only difference is that you didn't need a special TV to play DVD's. Hard to say how much the HD thing will slow down HDDVD

[Rob Beschizza]

I doubt it will be a big problem. By the time that HD-DVD matters to most of us, there'll be $100 HD-DVD players in the shops anyway.

There could be a PR hump if HD-DVD games start getting released, cutting out the early adopters. A separate external drive made available at that point would probably be the solution, a la the PS2 hard drive.

[Jazar]

Everything about the next generation is premature.

[Rob Beschizza]

Only difference is that you didn't need a special TV to play DVD's. Hard to say how much the HD thing will slow down HDDVD

I have a basically useless HDTV right now. I hope it lasts the decade or so before the advent of Really Existing HDTV in my area.

You know, I should have paid extra for one of those HDTVs that has a tuner built in. Cable companies are all going to be falling hand over fist to be compatible with those. None of them are going to insist you get a tuner/DVR combo from them as a standard part of the only contract they offer. Not at all.

[RobotPants]

The whole Blu-ray vs HDDVD thing is really stupid. I was really optimistic when I first heard rumors that Sony and Toshiba were working together to make a unified format, but now it's just aggrivatingly retarded to learn that it probably won't happen. It's just dumb dumb dumb. Imagine if DVDs would've had multiple formats when they came out. I'm not sure if it will even matter for a few years if the PS3 and Xbox360 have support for blu-ray or HDDVD formats. I would bet the majority of HDTV owners are still fine with how good regular DVDs look now anyway.

However, regardless of the format war, if both consoles have support for the much higher storage capacity of the new formats, they'd benefit anyway, even if people don't use them as DVD players. As it has already been said, the people who care enough about HD-quality DVDs will probably go for a stand alone Blu-ray or HDDVD player anyway, rather than using their game consoles for it.

Also, HDTV penetration is quite a bit higher than some of you seem to believe. Since you can get a big screen HDTV for around the same price (less in some cases) as you would've paid for any standard def big screen several years ago, the people buying HDTVs are pretty much the same as the ones who would likely purchase any big screen TV. The price difference between SD and HD CRTs, for instance, is small enough to make it sort of silly to buy anything that isn't high definition these days.

[Kevin Grey]

I think the people that will really care about HD will own an HD-DVD/BluRay player. Just like anyone who gives a crap about quality now doesn't rely on the XBox or PS2 DVD players, so it's not a big deal.

Not many people are likely to buy a PS3 to get bluray, however bluray is going to get a massive aid to its install base by being included in PS3 which might be enough to kill the competing format. High Definition DVD, unified or not, is not going to be be adopted by consumers anywhere close to that of DVD so the PS3 install base is likely to be dwarf that of standalone Bluray and HD-DVD players ensuring widespread studio support for the format.

[Justin Fletcher]

So, I think Microsoft is being tremendously dumb/naive. They should hold off on launching the Xbox 360 until they can launch it with a proper high-definition media player.
If they did, they'd lose their biggest advantage: launching several months ahead of the PS3. Waiting for an HD-DVD version is a pain in the ass (especially if there isn't some trade-in deal later for 1st gen Xbox 360s), but it makes complete sense from a strategy standpoint.

As for the format war, I make a simple prediction: the least expensive format will win. As Beta vs. VHS proved (much to my chagrin), most people don't value higher quality products enough to pay extra for them. The PS3's Blu-Ray support may push sales in that direction at first. If HD-DVD media is cheaper, though, consumers will either buy the enhanced Xbox or a standalone player. They will correctly reason that, in the long run, the media is the true expense, not the hardware.

[Jason Cross]

Well, it all sort of "depends." The PS3 is launching in Spring 2006. We don't know where yet... that might be worldwide, that might be Japan only, we just don't know. But it'll take a good six months or so before there are 5 million of them in people's homes.

So when will Microsoft potentially include an HD-DVD drive in the 360? Next Xmas? Next spring? 2007? Will it be a seperate upsell model, or will it replace all 360s like when they moved to the S controlelr? We simply don't know anything at this point.

The HD-DVD and BluRay battle is far from over, and including bluray in the PS3 doesn't seal its fate at all. The movie studios are very much split in thier support. If you could count on 20 million PS3s invading homes by the end of 2006, sure, all the studios would jump no board. But HD-DVD players are supposed to be out in Q4 this year or Q1 next year, with support from several major studios. What will the prices be? How expensive will it be to make the discs? How will that compare to blu-ray discs?

There are still too many variables.

Sony either has a nice leg-up on Microsoft by including the defacto next-gen movie standard in thier game machine, or they've done nothing but drive up the cost to produce their box to build in the next-gen equivalent of betamax. I think it's too early to really tell which way it's going to go yet.

[Jason Cross]

As for the format war, I make a simple prediction: the least expensive format will win. As Beta vs. VHS proved (much to my chagrin), most people don't value higher quality products enough to pay extra for them.

Beta vs. VHS wasn't all about cost. It was largely about content. Sony was too restrictive about what kinds of things they would let be published in beta format. Porn is a particular catalyst to the success of VHS (really!). These were becoming affordable right around the time where porn was getting to be a bigger industry, and giving people the opportunity to watch porn at home instead of going to some totally seedy theater was a big deal. Sony wouldn't let porn be published on beta, while VHS was wide open. It really played a bigger part in the success of the format than most people will readily admit to.

I agree with you that price will be a major factor in the format battle, but I think things like content restrictions may be as well. Assuming both formats are available for "roughly" the same cost to consumers (ie... one isn't literally twice the price of the other), the one that has more of the big movies people care about will win. The Matrix sold DVD players by the millions because it was out on DVD before VHS. If one format pulls a similar coup over the other, that could be the game.

[RickH]

Interesting take on the Beta/VHS concept, but I can't agree that pr0n was solely responsible for the VHS win. I can't even recall that the standard-makers were in a position to either grant or deny the ability to publish materials on the format.

My recollection is that Sony, being Sony, wanted to control the format and allowed few, if any, other manufacturers to make Beta units. JVC, in contrast, freely licenced VHS technology ensuring broad retail availability and price competition (while making some of the best VHS units). Sony, more of a boutique brand before it went mass-market with the PlayStation, went for it all and lost.

I think the Beta/VHS fight also illustrates that superior tech does not always carry the day. In the absence of a dramatic increase in quality, usability, or convenience, broadly available (and thus cheaper) technology that's "good enough" will beat better technology. More people have purchased MP3 players than SACD or DVD Audio players, despite the obvious superiority of the latter technology. DAT failed in the marketplace despite its better sound fidelity, killed by proto-DRM and the inexplicable decision to use a helical-scan head rather than a fixed magnetic head. DAT or mini-disk could never overcome the installed base of "good-enough" cassette technology, which lasted until the rise of car CD players, rewritable CD's, and solid-state music players.

DVD killed VHS because it was dramatically better than the older tech. Just try watching a VHS movie on a 27"+ TV when you're used to DVD clarity. Random access and no moving parts on the media (and thus no rewinding) were just icing on the cake. Blu-ray and HD-DVD will not be either dramatically better, cheaper, or more convenient than DVD, which has huge market penetration and installed base. I expect neither format to advance much beyond the enthusiast market for the forseeable future.

[Ephraim]

So, I think Microsoft is being tremendously dumb/naive. They should hold off on launching the Xbox 360 until they can launch it with a proper high-definition media player.
If they did, they'd lose their biggest advantage: launching several months ahead of the PS3. Waiting for an HD-DVD version is a pain in the ass (especially if there isn't some trade-in deal later for 1st gen Xbox 360s), but it makes complete sense from a strategy standpoint.

I'm not so sure. I'm really not all that convinced about the value of first mover advantage here. It didn't help Sega and the Dreamcast, I'm not so sure it's going to help Microsoft, especially when they muddy the waters with theoretical second waves of Xbox 360s with HD-DVD capabilities.

Microsoft should have supported HD-DVD from the get-go. It is, after all, based on the VC-9 codec they submitted to the DVD Forum. I, in HRose like glory, predicted to my friends that Sony would include SACD and Blu Ray support in the PS3 (I also predicted UMD support, but was wrong). I was shocked when Microsoft didn't match Sony's move with HD-DVD support. Now the waters are muddy as hell, with the supposed "high def" console totally lacking in HD media playback (unless they've got some sort of Xbox Live HD movie download service in mind, which is possible) but a later iteration potentially sporting that nice little addition.

I was the first person I know to own a DVD player, but I won't be the first person I know to buy a Blu Ray/HD-DVD player, due to the impending format war. Instead I'll get my Blu Ray player in a PS3, and potentially an HD-DVD player in a second gen Xbox 360. But the important thing to note is that I no longer feel the desire to buy a first generation Xbox 360 and until reading this news, I'd planned on it. Which is why I believe Microsoft is shooting itself in the foot here. Unless they have some incredibly spectacular launch titles, there's no real reason to buy a 360 right off the bat when if you wait a few months, you might get one with an HD-DVD player. And if you're willing to wait a few months, why not wait a few months more and get a PS3 (not necessarily my thinking, I'd planned on owning both consoles, but some people will certainly have this in mind).

[Bob Violence]

My recollection is that Sony, being Sony, wanted to control the format and allowed few, if any, other manufacturers to make Beta units.

There were plenty of non-Sony Beta decks -- Aiwa, Sanyo, Toshiba, Sears, NEC, Pioneer, probably others I'm forgetting. Some of these may have been Sony-manufactured machines sold under different brands, but I know for a fact that Sanyo made their own decks so I'm guessing others did as well. Sony even asked JVC to make Beta decks in 1976, apparently not realizing that JVC was about to come out with their own format. The porn thing is an annoying urban legend -- Sony exercised no control over what kind of stuff was released on Beta and plenty of early porn videos were available on both formats. People have come up with all sorts of theories for why VHS beat Beta, but the two most plausible are 1) cost (Beta decks were generally slightly more expensive than a comparable VHS deck, possibly because Beta was a slightly more complicated system and possibly because Sony's licensing fees were higher, although I don't know if that's actually true) and 2) recording time (VHS reached the six-hour mark pretty quickly whereas Beta never managed to crack 5 hours).

[Kevin J Baird]

I'm pretty sure I predicted this was going to happen. Not that it wasn't obvious. Microsoft has a vested interest in HD-DVD because Windows Media 9 is one of the standards for it. Winner or no winner in the coming HDDVD war, Microsoft has backed foolish technology before and come out on top.

K

[Backov]

Isn't HD-DVD just a software format? It seems to me if it's just the codec on normal DVD disks, then HD-DVD is just a patch away.

[Bob Violence]

Isn't HD-DVD just a software format? It seems to me if it's just the codec on normal DVD disks, then HD-DVD is just a patch away.

HD-DVD is a new format. A few DVDs (the "Extreme Edition" of Terminator 2, for example) contain an HD version of the film in WMV9 format that can be viewed on a computer (there's also one or two DVD players out there that can play them), but that's not the same thing. The HD-DVD format has a number of physical differences that requires new hardware (a blue laser, for one thing) to play.

[Dave Long]

All of this is why High Definition is nothing more than marketing bluster for the next generation of consoles. It's just another way to fool people into thinking your machine is more powerful and your competitor's machine is less so. It's going to make consoles more impenetrable to Average Joe which is a bad thing.

--Dave

[Andrew Mallon]

I don't think the average consumer will necessarily care or know about Blu Ray, HD DVD, and competing formats. All Average Joe is going to hear is "Wait a minute, if I buy a PS3 I'll able to play games in HD and watch movies in HD? Can the Xbox 360 do that?" I don't think it'll even matter if they have an HD TV or not. People are going to steer toward the PS3 because HD playback will be there when/if they buy an HD set.

[Qenan]

Maybe I'm not "average" enough, but I think it all comes down to what games are out for the console. If I need a new player for movies, I'll get one separately.

[Moggraider]

I'd say a lot of people just got done, or are still in the process of, buying their entire movie back catalog on DVD in order to throw out their VHS tapes. Not too many people will be running out the door to snatch up a new medium that isn't even necessary, particularly when it (Blu Ray) will make games more expensive. I have PS2 games that were released on CDs because they were still small enough, so I know this whole shift is entirely premature. I'm putting my money on HD DVD, if anything, but I don't feel new TVs are warranted yet.

[Justin Fletcher]

I'd say a lot of people just got done, or are still in the process of, buying their entire movie back catalog on DVD in order to throw out their VHS tapes. Not too many people will be running out the door to snatch up a new medium that isn't even necessary, particularly when it (Blu Ray) will make games more expensive.
The SACD/DVD-A comparison mentioned earlier comes into play here, too. I might want my ten favorite movies in an HD format, but I'm certainly not going to re-purchase everything, especially the vast majority of non-HD TV shows and flicks without eye candy. Do I really need a HD version of My Dinner with Andre?

While next-gen consoles may have some influence on the HD format war, this thread is slowly convincing me that non-game HD content will ultimately have little impact on the sales of next-gen consoles.

[Dave Long]

Everything about the next generation is premature.

Just like to say that I agree with this post.

--Dave

[Brad Grenz]

As for the format war, I make a simple prediction: the least expensive format will win. As Beta vs. VHS proved (much to my chagrin), most people don't value higher quality products enough to pay extra for them. The PS3's Blu-Ray support may push sales in that direction at first. If HD-DVD media is cheaper, though, consumers will either buy the enhanced Xbox or a standalone player. They will correctly reason that, in the long run, the media is the true expense, not the hardware.

The cost advantage HD-DVD isn't one likely to be passed on to consumers. It's all about production of the actually media. And it's a front loaded expense for converting your plant. They aren't going to tack on an "update the TDK plant!" premium on Blu-ray discs. They'll price movies at what they believe the market will support. Maybe more than DVDs, but competitive with HD-DVD. Another thing starting to be picked up on is that not only does the PS3 trojan a player into your house, but the experince of pressing millions of PS3 games is going to quickly increase manufacturing efficiency and drive down costs.

As for the Xbox360 and HD-DVD... It's a total non starter. It's not like the DVD playing Gamecube shook up the industry. If it isn't standard it won't matter much. And I think the Reason MS is so gunshy is that they don't believe HD-DVD's chances against Blu-ray are very good. VC-9 is a supported codec for Blu-ray as well. They can't pick sides in the format war they have no vested interest in. It would be a marketing debacle to choose the wrong horse, look bad in tech spec comparisons choosing the technically inferior HD standard and then have the format die. Sony's doing it as the cost of competing, MS can wait to see who comes out on top and just release an upgraded console for the dominant format.

[RobotPants]

All of this is why High Definition is nothing more than marketing bluster for the next generation of consoles. It's just another way to fool people into thinking your machine is more powerful and your competitor's machine is less so. It's going to make consoles more impenetrable to Average Joe which is a bad thing.

--Dave

Now that's just silly. Maybe Average Joe would think that if the next-gen consoles were absolutely not going to be compatible with regular TVs, but that's not the case, is it? It would be stupid of MS and Sony to NOT push HD gaming because, believe it or not, HDTVs are becoming more and more easily attainable to the average consumer and it will only continue to get better. I still don't have an HDTV, but lots of my friends do and the much higher-resolution definitely shows the weakness of the current-gen consoles in comparison to PC games. They're pushing the HD thing because it makes more sense to Joe Average to hear games are "high definition" instead of "better resolution to look more like PC games".

[Bob Violence]

Missed this one:

I'm pretty sure I predicted this was going to happen. Not that it wasn't obvious. Microsoft has a vested interest in HD-DVD because Windows Media 9 is one of the standards for it.

They have a vested interest (http://www.linuxworld.com.au/index.php/id;477439239;fp;512;fpid;406) in Blu-Ray as well. They've got more of a vested interest in HD-DVD now that HD-DVD is apparently going to incorporate Windows (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/230299_msftxbox28.html) in some unspecified fashion, but MS will get royalties no matter who wins. It sounds to me like they're keeping their options open in case HD-DVD tanks, given the company's refusal to openly endorse one format and the vagueness of Gates' comments on the 360 ("We are looking at whether future versions of Xbox 360 will incorporate an additional capability of an HD DVD player or something else").