2008 - The early presidential favorites

[Phil_Stein]

So 2008 will be interesting, without any front-runner Republican candidate (that I'm aware of), and with the Democratic situation a bit unclear too.

For those out there who follow this stuff more closely than I, who are regarded as the top 3 or so contenders for each party for '08? If you've got a link to a London oddsmaker, that'd be good too. I'm curious about who the 'insider crowd' in general regards as the likely frontrunners more so than who your personal favorite is, but the latter would be interesting to talk about, too.

[Duality]

I'm not sure if he's in the top three, but there's been a lot of rumors around Wis. Senator Russ Feingold to run in '08.

I haven't decided if I'd vote for him if he were to run, though. I think he's been a very good Senator and wouldn't mind keeping him there a while longer.

[shift6]

Hopefully the Dems run Obama.

[extarbags]

Too soon for Obama. I'm looking at him for 2012, maybe 2016.

[Squirrel Killer]

Not to rain on anyone's parade (I think Obama would make a great candidate), but keep in mind how Senators have done recently... Senator John Kerry, Former Senator Gore, Senator Dole, Former Senator Mondale, Senator McGovern... Not exactly a great position to run for, and one of the reasons I was skeptical of a Kerry nomination, although I did come around and even predict a Kerry win eventually.

[extarbags]

No, you're right, SK. I've thought about that often, in fact, particularly during the Democratic primary, when one of the most frequently blathered complaints about Dean was that he was a governor, and didn't have any experience in the Federal government... just like four of the last five Presidents.

[Raife]

I'm not sure if he's in the top three, but there's been a lot of rumors around Wis. Senator Russ Feingold to run in '08.

I haven't decided if I'd vote for him if he were to run, though. I think he's been a very good Senator and wouldn't mind keeping him there a while longer.

Russ is a great Senator, and I wish we had a few dozen more like him in Congress. Those rumors aren't coming from his office, however, and right now he's more concerned with things like passage of the SAFE Act (http://www.senate.gov/~feingold/statements/04/04/2004409913.html). I also like him where he is, but we'll have to see how things shake out in a few years.

I think it's early to even speculate at this point, but I'd agree that '08 is probably too early for Obama as a Presidential candidate. I really like Bill Richardson, though. I think a Richardson/Edwards ticket could be effective, or even Richardson/Obama.

[BrewersDroop]

Biden, Clinton, Richardson.

McCain, Giuliani, Rice (?)

[Phil_Stein]

I would say that H Clinton is going to be a heavy favorite for the dems, barring any major gaffes on her part. Name recognition, fund raising, gender, etc will play heavily in her favor. And from what I can tell, as a Senator she's playing much more to the middle than as a first lady, which is politically smart.

I don't know who's strong for the Republicans. Jeb Bush will suffer from Bush fatigue. I don't see Guilliani as viable (too old, messy divorce, health questions) Rice has said pretty strongly she doesn't plan to run (could still reverse, but she's also never been elected for anything. McCain will likely run, but may be perceived as too much of a Democrat in Republican clothing to succeed in the primaries. I'm guessing a fresh face for the Repubs (Was G.W. on anybody's radar 3.5 years in advance of 2000?)

[Jakub]

Given all the Hillary-hate in the media, what chance does she have?

[Raife]

I would say that H Clinton is going to be a heavy favorite for the dems, barring any major gaffes on her part. Name recognition, fund raising, gender, etc will play heavily in her favor.

Hillary is somewhat of a poison pill for the Dems. If she runs, there will be a lot of backlash. Heck, I'm not sure I'd vote for her. It would be interesting to see Bill Clinton in the White House in a First Gentleman's role, though.

I'm guessing a fresh face for the Repubs (Was G.W. on anybody's radar 3.5 years in advance of 2000?)

That was my thought as well. Anyone the GOP can conjure up who's stronger than Bush (who was pretty weak) will do for them. I wouldn't mind McCain getting the nod, but I don't think the Republicans feel he's controllable enough.

[VegasRobb]

McCain is gonna be pretty old by 2008, but that would explain why he's made so many moves to be accepted by party faithful.

What about someone like John Ensign? He's a conservative golden boy right now.

Isn't it time for Gore to step back into the spotlight?

[DennyA]

McCain is the only Replican on the planet I think I could vote for.

My prediction?

Clinton v. Bush, the rematch

(Hillary v. Jeb)

Which would doom us to another 4 years of a Bush in the White House, I think...

[Troy S Goodfellow]

Governor Mark Warner from Virginia could make a run for the Dems. And there are probably enough Republican governors to go for it.

There has been talk of Newt Gingrich coming out of the punditry/lobbying wilderness to run for prez.

Clinton has to be the favorite. Her negatives, though high, are going down and she has done a respectable job selling herself as a moderate. The talk radio conservatives would love to have her run.

Troy

[CindySue22]

I'm hoping Jesse Ventura can be talked out of retirement.

Or maybe Jimmy Stewart, or Spencer Tracy. Otherwise, they are all the same really, and you know it.

$$ is what rules the country, and it makes little difference in the party affiliation of the President, except maybe in the case of national defense.

What I mean by that is that I would rather have a conservative at the helm in time of danger than a socialist.

And we are in a time of danger, make no mistake.

[Brian Rucker]

Mark Warner's a pretty bright guy. Centrist Democrat with an understanding of the high tech sector. And, of course, a Southerner. But he's just not that charismatic. I don't know. I don't see Hillary doing well at all in a general election. Not because she's the Conservative's red headed stepchild but because she doesn't come across as very likeable or genuine.

I'm tempted to say Edwards because he'd look good on TV and that's really all it seems to take. "Well, he seems like a nice fellow let's vote for him." Run some 'looking out for the little guy' spots for Edwards to contrast with the Bankrupcy Bill and Estate Tax shennigans the Republicans have been up to - not to mention the crazy religious stuff, and only a Southerner can really stand toe-to-toe with Southern religious wingnuts and call them on it with credibility in Southern eyes. It's also long enough after 9/11 that I don't think we're all so worried about a repeat that the guy's youthful appearance will be such a concern.

Still, he did vote for authorization for the invasion of Iraq and Iraq is doing one of two things before the next election: it is standing on its own two feet or it's heading more directly into civil war. If things go well it's good for the Republicans but it's also good for Edwards. If things go badly and the whole question is getting more scruitiny it might be a good idea to find a candidate who didn't support, or was on the sidelines about, the invasion. How the midterms go are also important. If we do get Democratic majorities in one of the chambers of Congress odds are we can get a real investigation into alot of stuff The Administration would rather not have us consider. A serious look at the political uses of intelligence before the Iraq war could have alot of folks wondering about anyone involved.

[JeffL]

I'm not sure Iraq, even if it goes well, is going to be a big factor for either a Dem or a Republican in 2008. No Republican is going to get either major credit or blame in 08, while it was directly associated with Bush.

Who will America like the most in 2008? As in who will be the most photegenic, warm, powerful, and likeable? I don't have a clue on the Republican side. I think America will be tired of Bushes by then, so it would be surprising to see Jeb. McCain is who I'd like to see, as much as I have more doubts about him now than I have in the past, but he will still have an almost impossible time getting the support of the party powers and thus not be able to get the nomination (My dream is still McCain as president as an Independent.) I really have no clue who the Republicans have that will come across as personable and likeable in 08.

Democrats: too early for Obama, it's easy to be personable and powerful and capture the eye and imagination of the nation when you only have to give a speech or two. Too early for him to weather a brutal campaign, lots of groundwork left for him. Hillary would be slaughtered: her true temprament could never be held in check for the length of a presidential campaign, and she just isn't genuinely likeable by most of America. Warner is interesting but he'd need a lot of coaching. Edwards could have that Clintonesque charm, but he was weaker than expected in 04.

I think if I was running the Democratic party I'd go for something that was a real contrast to Bush. Perhaps someone who comes across as experienced (as in silver hair,) been around the block, extremely intelligent and thoughtful, a twinkle in his eye, strong yet caring, and with teh kind of communications skills and charm and humor that the camera loves. An unspoken "OK, you've had 8 years of Howdy Doody, it's time to put a likeable, experienced statesman in this important job." That may be more appealing to America by 08 than another young and relatively inexperienced candidate. A Democratic Ronald Reagan in terms of experience and style: someone who can critique teh opposition without coming across as harsh and bitter and petulant. Is there anyone in the Democratic party that fits that portrait?

[CindySue22]

I think if I was running the Democratic party I'd go for something that was a real contrast to Bush. Perhaps someone who comes across as experienced (as in silver hair,) been around the block, extremely intelligent and thoughtful, a twinkle in his eye, strong yet caring, and with teh kind of communications skills and charm and humor that the camera loves. An unspoken "OK, you've had 8 years of Howdy Doody, it's time to put a likeable, experienced statesman in this important job." That may be more appealing to America by 08 than another young and relatively inexperienced candidate. A Democratic Ronald Reagan in terms of experience and style: someone who can critique teh opposition without coming across as harsh and bitter and petulant. Is there anyone in the Democratic party that fits that portrait?

That would be Ted Kennedy, right? LOL! There is no one.

[Tyjenks]

Ted has just been eating and drinking his way to a decent fighting weight so that he can take a bullet and continue to campaign. I think 2008 he will be approaching maximum density. Plus, any wound caused by bullet that does somehow penetrate his leathery hide will spontaneously seal
and medicate itself with his blood that will be composed of approximately 50% alcohol by that time.

[Phil_Stein]

Ted Kennedy - America's answer to Boris Yeltsin!!!

[Jason McCullough]

Is there anyone in the Democratic party that fits that portrait?

Biden immediatelly comes to mind. Hard to picture, though.

[extarbags]

I'm sorry, but you guys who think Hillary is a Presidential candidate in 2008 or ever are out of your god damned minds. The Democrats might not be the best strategists lately, but they're not retarded.

[Nick Walter]

I'm sorry, but you guys who think Hillary is a Presidential candidate in 2008 or ever are out of your god damned minds. The Democrats might not be the best strategists lately, but they're not retarded.

That used to be my reaction as well when I considered a Hillary presidential campaign, but the more I think about it the more sense it makes. Yes, she's flat hated by certain segments of the population. But those are segments that aren't going to vote for a democratic candidate anyway, so is that really a big deal?

I still don't think she can win, but I'm not going ot label the idea retarded.

[Jason McCullough]

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

Mostly name recognition at this point, but interesting. The numbers bounce around depending on who's doing the asking, but it's pretty much even on McCain or Jeb vs. Hillary.

[extarbags]

I'm sorry, but you guys who think Hillary is a Presidential candidate in 2008 or ever are out of your god damned minds. The Democrats might not be the best strategists lately, but they're not retarded.

That used to be my reaction as well when I considered a Hillary presidential campaign, but the more I think about it the more sense it makes. Yes, she's flat hated by certain segments of the population. But those are segments that aren't going to vote for a democratic candidate anyway, so is that really a big deal?

By that logic, we can run anyone we want. Shit, if all we're going for are registered Democrats, why not let Ted Kennedy run? Or shit, Al Sharpton... not like we're going to win anyway. No, what we need is someone that can pull in voters, because the base obviously isn't going to cut it. Someone like Obama (IMO), just not yet.

My picks for the Rep nomination in 2008: Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani, probably the latter. No idea for the Dems though.

[Jason McCullough]

Sharpton & Kennedy aren't liked by moderates; Hillary is.

If the last few weeks have been any indication of the influence the kooks have in the party, there's no way Guiliani can get the nomination.

[Malderi]

I think Condi and Hillary are both great choices for a VP. If whoever is their President wins reelection again in 2012, they'd both be a great setup for a run in 2016. Hillary might be a little old by then (she's in her 50's now, right?) but Condi would be in perfect shape. It would take a little while for the nation to get used to a woman in a high position like that (consciously nobody has a problem with it... unconsciously, well, hard to say.) However, with 8 years in the VP slot, they'd be a perfect position to run.

However, as for President in 2008? I think Mitt Romney would be a good choice. Jeb Bush, probably not.

As for senators like McCain... I think both parties are smart enough now to realize that running a Senator, even one as reasonably well-liked as McCain (although he's definitely loosing that) is a bad idea. Bush Jr, Clinton, and Reagan were all Governors and Bush Sr was VP. Senator don't work, too much compromise and therefore far too vulnerable to "flip-flopping" accusations, even though it's part of a Senator's job description to flip-flop. They simply vote too much to not get called on *some* of it.

[Phil_Stein]

I don't think the idea of a female presidential candidate/president is that big a deal anymore. I suspect there are relatively few voters who would be strongly swayed one way or another by the candidates gender (all other things being equal).

Margaret Thatcher was almost 30 years ago, and other females in powerful positions make this much less of a big deal than, say Ferraro for VP in '84 (and I don't think Ferraro's gender was that big a deal THEN, either.) The Dems were criticized, rightly, IMO, for putting up a VP who was relatively weak in all respects other than her gender. But a reasonably well-qualified woman - Hillary, Condi or otherwise, will be judged for her views, charisma, policies and so on, with only a rather small segment significantly swayed by her gender (and that small segment would probably be about equally split between those more and less likely to vote for her for being a female.)

[Chris Nahr]

Whatever happened to the constitutional amendment that would let Arnie run for president?

[Nick Walter]

Whatever happened to the constitutional amendment that would let Arnie run for president?

I think that was nothing but idle speculation. It takes a lot to push through a constitutional amendment in these parts, so I don't think one would happen to alter the American-born requirement for president.

[Chris Nahr]

That's too bad. Everyone could get behind the Terminator for President! :)

[Jason McCullough]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,139952,00.html

A recent CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll found that 67 percent opposed changing the Constitution to allow immigrants to be president. When half the poll sample was asked the same question with Schwarzenegger's name, opposition dropped slightly to 58 percent.

[Chris Nahr]

Pfft. Chauvinistic fools. Now they have the singular opportunity to get Conan the Barbarian as their president, but nooo...

Oh well. How about Paris Hilton as the first female prez then? I bet she would easily get a majority of the votes! Or at least of the porn downloaders.